2022-2024 Russo-Ukrainian War

[zraver]

#molotov is trending on Twitter and seeing recipes on how to make them and videos of them being used to fry Russian BTR's is surreal.

[Ironduke]

You might want to double check that. Russia doesn't keep ice breakers there for nothing. Google St Petersberg Russia sea ice.

Shipping freely comes and goes from the port 12 months a year. As opposed to Russia's Arctic ports. What ice does form is no obstacle to Russia using St. Petersburg year-round for military and cargo ships.

[TopHatter]

There are disturbing reports about heavy gunfights in Kiev. Multiple videos with killed civilians and people in uniform. Probably dosens.

And the most terrible part... There are no Russian troops in Kiev yet!

25000 AKs giveaway was a brilliant idea.

Russian sabotage groups are known to be Kyiv. And you're on thin ice.

[Mithridates]

JFC could you imagine if that was an American or NATO force taking those losses two days into a conflict?

Against an adversary who had just exchanged his TV remote for a rifle after getting off the couch (i.e. no general mobilization)? This is like a reverse Yom Kippur - the Israelis attack the Egyptians on Eid while the Gyppoes are sleeping off the night's gluttony, and the IDF takes serious losses while falling way behind schedule.

[zraver]

What an odd war.

Near Kyiv, disabled BMP
Ukrainian Civillians (UC), you guys broke down?

RA, out of fuel

UC, need a tow? Back to Russia

RA/UC, laughs

Near Melitopol

RA is stopping UC cars, dragging people out of them and shooting them

[InExile]

So it looks like on day 3 that the war is going somewhat badly for the Russians. As some reports have said, no major cities have been taken, an assault on Kiev last night failed to make any significant progress. Over 3000 Russian soldiers killed (though these are based on Ukrainian sources). Some reports that Putin is furious at the outcome so far

[tantalus]

What an odd war.

Near Kyiv, disabled BMP
Ukrainian Civillians (UC), you guys broke down?

RA, out of fuel

UC, need a tow? Back to Russia

RA/UC, laughs

Near Melitopol

RA is stopping UC cars, dragging people out of them and shooting them

Crazy, fact really is stranger than fiction

[tantalus]

TASS (Russian State News Agency) reported the following casualties, shortly before getting taken down (Disclaimer: could have been the work of a Ukrainian or other cyberwarfare group)

• 14 aircraft (13 attackers (SU-25 and other CAS) and 1 IL-76)
• 8 helicopters
• 102 tanks
• 536 armored cars and APCs
• 15 artillery pieces
• 1 Buk air defense system
• 3500 soldiers (dead, captured, wounded)

https://twitter.com/HannaLiubakova/s...2c69931318%2F0

JFC could you imagine if that was an American or NATO force taking those losses two days into a conflict?

I am confused are you saying the russians briefly reported those numbers? (edit. Sorry misread I got it)

How many men would have been on those IL76s?

[NUS]

Russian sabotage groups are known to be Kyiv. And you're on thin ice.

And how 25000 armed civilians will help against them? They will provide a perfect cover for them. Until yesterday civilian with a gun was suspicious. Now it's just another looter who kills people left and right "because they are Russian spies!"
A family of 5 was killed in a car today, only two children survived, in critical condition. Because someone with AK thought they are "Russian sabotage group".

But Zelensky is still unhappy with looting and chaos level and to improve things they will release criminals from prisons "if they want to fight for Ukraine". This implies they will arm criminals.

[tantalus]

#molotov is trending on Twitter and seeing recipes on how to make them and videos of them being used to fry Russian BTR's is surreal.

Apparently instructions on making them are even playing on Ukrainian radio.

[Officer of Engineers]

Brits say 450 Russian dead and the Russian performance is impressive, very impressive. A 36 hour march to the gates of Kiev and some very minor set back. The initial airport assault for example. Six helos down ~ 2 companies worth and they managed to hold the airport for several hours before driven off. The Ukrainians didn't destroy the remaining force. They was driven off and still acted as the reccee force. We didn't see the bodies. Ukrainian TV would have platestered the airwaves.

American and British intel says the Russians are behind schedule as if this is a big win for the Ukrainians. It isn't. No operation stays on schedule.

Lastly, do not trust Zelensky. He's boasting. Last night were obviously probing attacks, not the main thrust.

[Mithridates]

Lastly, do not trust Zelensky. He's boasting. Last night were obviously probing attacks, not the main thrust.

Re Zelensky, how long would it have taken the Russians to get to this point - within artillery range of Kiev - if he had ordered a general mobilization a month ago?

[Red Team]

How many men would have been on those IL76s?

Just to clarify the TASS report said one IL76, and American sources have indicated two IL76 losses yesterday. I've read that they were carrying company-sized elements within them (100-150 men).

[Parihaka]

#molotov is trending on Twitter and seeing recipes on how to make them and videos of them being used to fry Russian BTR's is surreal.

I learnt more in two minutes than any number of book readings.

[zraver]

Brits say 450 Russian dead (1) and the Russian performance is impressive, very impressive. A 36 hour march to the gates of Kiev (2) and some very minor set back. The initial airport assault for example. Six helos down ~ 2 companies worth and they managed to hold the airport for several hours before driven off. The Ukrainians didn't destroy the remaining force. They was driven off and still acted as the reccee force. We didn't see the bodies. Ukrainian TV would have platestered the airwaves.

American and British intel says the Russians are behind schedule as if this is a big win for the Ukrainians. (3) It isn't. No operation stays on schedule..

Lastly, do not trust Zelensky. He's boasting. Last night were obviously probing attacks, not the main thrust.

(1) Sir, if we break that down to estimate wounded, deserters and captured, that is between 2-4% of the assault force given that the US says Putin sent in 1/3rd of the troops massed on the border. Of course it wont be evenly spread. Some units like the pars at the airport are shot out, others, maybe most haven't lost anyone. Those paras took losses no western unit has taken since Korea.

(2) I think the speed might be a tad misleading. Russian AFV's have the range to make that trip and fight on a single tank of fuel. There was no real need to have a massive logistical tail like the US did in Iraq.

(3) Can Russia sustain the effort? The easy part is done. Now its the house to house butchers bill. Conscript infantry did not do so well in Grozny (99-00) with about 20% casualty rates. Kyiv is a much bigger nut to chew on and the UA and militias are going to be better armed. That is going to translate into a lot of pissed off war mothers back in Russia. Russia can hide the bodies, but not the amputees. Putin has already been backfooted on the propaganda front with all the anti-war protests.