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  • Originally posted by TopHatter View Post

    Might this be like an Inchon situation? A horrible-on-paper place to launch an attack, with basically no preparatory advance bombardment, where the Russians are weakest because who in their right mind would attack such a place?
    As much as I have given the Russians crap, they aren't the North Koreans in 1950. Also the bulk of the North Korean Army...what was left of it...was focusing on the forces at Pusan.
    “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
    Mark Twain

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
      The more I think about it. The more I feel that the current Ukrainian actions are feints. Four breaches within a 48 hour time span and all of them contained? Not one follow through strong force to decide a break through? At the very least, engage the Russian reserves to deny the Russians operational options? One breach I can understand being contained but four?

      However, don't bet the kitchen sink just yet. If I can see this, so can the Russians.
      While I have been a big cheerleader for the Ukrainians in this war and I would love for this to be true, I don't think they have the professional forces to pull of a complicated plan like that. As I have said the Ukrainian military is not the hollow reed as it was in 2014 and has profited greatly from the NCO schools & staff and leadership training conducted by NATO. But at the same time I don't see it as the US Army in 1989, honed to a razors edge and fully embracing AirLand Battle, ready to counterattack toward Moscow as soon as the GSFG got stopped.

      You are absolutely correct that in the correlation of forces the Russians (I wrote Soviet and had to erase and rewrite) have an overwhelming numerical superiority. But perhaps this is a move to keep the Russians off balance and allow the sanctions along with the isolation of forces take a bite. Also, interestingly, we have seen in the last week the UAF flying MiG-29s going on SEAD missions and using HARMs on Magnum missions for the first time. And they are attacking by launching 2 HARMs at once, leading me to believe there is a secure and generous pipeline coming for replacements. And why are the Ukrainians trying to gain a more permissive aviation environment...simple, employment of more CAS.

      As we have all said...time will tell. And let's hope for the best. A lot has happened the last 6 months that have shown the prognosticators wrong at every turn.
      “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
      Mark Twain

      Comment


      • Report: Drunk Russian soldiers in Kherson fired assault rifles at FSB officers in deadly incident

        When Viktor Zolotov, director of the Russian National Guard, briefed his boss, President Vladimir Putin, on Tuesday on the status of military operations in Ukraine, one remark in particular stood out.

        “I especially want to emphasize that we feel the support of the population in the liberated territories,” Zolotov told a stone-faced Putin.


        In reality, Russia has been struggling to rally the support of its own troops, according to internal government documents obtained exclusively by Yahoo News that detail drunken acts of insubordination six months into Putin’s invasion.

        The documents include an incident and homicide report by the Russian Investigative Committee’s Military Investigations Department for the Black Sea Fleet regarding a June 19 incident in which three Russian soldiers were shot and killed and two others wounded in a gun battle with officers of the Federal Security Service (FSB), the successor agency to the KGB, at a bar in Kherson City, on the banks of the Dnieper River.

        The city lies at the epicenter of an oblast that has been occupied by Russian forces since late February and which Ukraine yesterday appeared to launch operations to recapture. Details of that operation are hard to obtain, as Kyiv has announced a media blackout of ongoing military activities. But videos posted to social media show a series of Ukrainian artillery strikes on military installations, weapons and ammunition depots and key bridges have continued throughout the last 24 hours. In response, Russian air defenses have been activated throughout the oblast.

        Kherson Stremousov, the Russian-appointed governor of Kherson, has fled the region and even recorded a video Tuesday from a hotel in Voronezh, Russia. Meanwhile, there have even been unconfirmed reports of gunfire in the Pivnichny and Tavriiske neighborhoods of Kherson.

        Russia’s equivalent of the FBI can at least attest to gunfire in Kherson city two months ago — between Russians.

        According to the Investigative Committee’s report, at about 8 p.m. on June 19, Igor Yakubinsky, Sergei Privalov and D.A. Borodin, three officers attached to the sub-division Military Task Force No. 9 of the FSB entered the Food Fuel cafe on Ushakova Avenue when they discovered two contract soldiers, Sgt. Sergei Obukhov and Junior Sgt. Igor Sudin “idly spending time, consuming alcoholic drinks,” according to the Investigative Committee documents.

        The FSB officers remonstrated with the enlisted men for drinking while in uniform. Obukhov responded by removing his sidearm and firing rounds into the floor, the report stated. Privalov tried to grab the gun, whereupon Sudin started spraying the security servicemen with rounds from his AK-74 assault rifle, as Privalov and Yakubinsky returned fire.

        Obukhov, Privalov and Yakubinsky “died on the spot,” according to the documents, while Borodin and Sudin were “hospitalized with injuries of varying degrees of severity at Federal Naval Clinical Hospital No. 1427 of the Russian Defense Ministry, located in Sevastopol,” in occupied Crimea. A fourth FSB officer, unidentified in the documents, fled the site.


        Obukhov, 28, and Sudin, 31, both belonged to a Russian military unit known as the 8th Artillery Regiment of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

        The shootout, which is now subject to a criminal case under the purview of V.O. Savchenko, an official in the Military Investigations Department, is the latest example of problems involving military discipline among Russian soldiers in the occupied territories of Ukraine.

        Reports of Russian soldiers’ alcoholism have been rampant in Ukraine and morale has suffered as Putin’s war drags on without achieving its primary goal of regime change.

        In Kherson, especially, Russian occupiers have been the targets of presumed Ukrainian guerrilla activities including assassinations and patrol ambushes. Earlier this month, Sky News quoted a local Ukrainian journalist in Kherson who told the outlet that in the suburbs of the city Russian soldiers parade around hammered, “a bottle of alcohol in one hand, a machine gun in the other.”
        _______
        “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Ironduke View Post
          I think this is a flawed idea. If Ukraine makes a peace agreement with Russia, that implies a recognition of Russia's territorial gains. Come the next round, when Ukraine were to attack, Ukraine is in the role of the "aggressor", even if they have a legitimate claim to the territory Russia controls.

          In the mean time, the reasons for keeping sanctions in place on Russia to the degree that they are, and rationale for arming Ukraine to the extent we have been, and for free to boot, diminishes/disappears.

          If Ukraine initiates a next round after a peace agreement with Russia, many countries in the West would also have an easy copout not to supply/aid Ukraine.
          After Krajina, the cynic in me says there's only one go-no-go who matters and that is the Americans. The Iraq War should tell you what your country is willing to do while telling everyone else to eat rocks. So, if the Americans say go, you can bet Keiv will start running before she hits the ground.

          Aside from that, we're still legally at war with North Korea and Seoul has claims all the way to the Yalu.
          Chimo

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Albany Rifles View Post
            While I have been a big cheerleader for the Ukrainians in this war and I would love for this to be true, I don't think they have the professional forces to pull of a complicated plan like that. As I have said the Ukrainian military is not the hollow reed as it was in 2014 and has profited greatly from the NCO schools & staff and leadership training conducted by NATO. But at the same time I don't see it as the US Army in 1989, honed to a razors edge and fully embracing AirLand Battle, ready to counterattack toward Moscow as soon as the GSFG got stopped.

            You are absolutely correct that in the correlation of forces the Russians (I wrote Soviet and had to erase and rewrite) have an overwhelming numerical superiority. But perhaps this is a move to keep the Russians off balance and allow the sanctions along with the isolation of forces take a bite. Also, interestingly, we have seen in the last week the UAF flying MiG-29s going on SEAD missions and using HARMs on Magnum missions for the first time. And they are attacking by launching 2 HARMs at once, leading me to believe there is a secure and generous pipeline coming for replacements. And why are the Ukrainians trying to gain a more permissive aviation environment...simple, employment of more CAS.

            As we have all said...time will tell. And let's hope for the best. A lot has happened the last 6 months that have shown the prognosticators wrong at every turn.
            I'm not expecting 73 Easting, nor even Bastonge but I do believe IJA Bataan is well within Ukrainian capabilities.

            Chimo

            Comment


            • And speaking of HARM flying in the Ukraine...

              Comment


              • Executives in Russia, especially oil company ones, seemed tohave an affinity to windows the way a moth does to a buglight.

                https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ce-2022-09-01/


                Top Russian oil official dies after fall from hospital window - sources


                MOSCOW, Sept 1 (Reuters) - Ravil Maganov, the chairman of Russia's second-largest oil producer Lukoil, died on Thursday after falling from a hospital window in Moscow, two sources familiar with the situation said, becoming the latest in a series of businessmen to meet with sudden unexplained deaths.

                The sources confirmed reports by several Russian media that the 67-year-old had plunged to his death, but the circumstances surrounding his fall were unclear.

                Two people who knew Maganov well told Reuters they believed it was highly unlikely he had committed suicide.

                Another source close to the company said there was a belief inside Lukoil management that he had killed himself, but he had not seen evidence or documents to support that.

                Asked by Reuters if they were investigating the death as suspicious, Moscow police referred the question to the state's Investigative Committee. The Committee did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

                Lukoil said in a statement that Maganov had "passed away following a serious illness".

                "Lukoil's many thousands of employees mourn deeply for this grievous loss and express their sincere condolences to Ravil Maganov's family," it said.

                Several other senior executives with ties to Russia's energy industry have died suddenly in unclear circumstances in the past few months.

                The day after Russia sent its forces into Ukraine in February, a Gazprom executive, Alexander Tyulakov, was found dead in his garage near St Petersburg, Russian media reported.


                In April, Sergei Protosenya, a former top manager of Russia's largest liquefied natural gas producer Novatek, was found dead with his wife and daughter at a villa in Spain. Catalan regional police, investigating the case, have said they believe he killed them and then took his own life.

                In May, Russian media reported a former Lukoil manager, Alexander Subbotin, was found dead in the basement of a house outside Moscow.

                The same month, Russian media said that Vladislav Avayev, an ex-vice president of Gazprombank, was found dead in a Moscow apartment, also with the bodies of his wife and daughter.

                Maganov had worked in Lukoil since 1993, shortly after the company's inception, and had overseen its refining, production and exploration, becoming chairman in 2020. His brother Nail is the head of mid-sized Russian oil producer Tatneft.

                Unusually among Russian companies, Lukoil took a stand over Moscow's intervention in Ukraine. In a March 3 statement, the company's board of directors expressed its concern over the "tragic events" in Ukraine and called for the "soonest possible end to armed conflict" via negotiations.

                Maganov was a close associate of one of Lukoil's founders, Vagit Alekperov, and frequently took part in meetings of Russian oil producers and the energy ministry to decide on joint actions as part of the OPEC+ group of leading global oil producers.

                Alekperov, a former Soviet deputy oil minister, resigned as president of Lukoil in April, a week after Britain imposed an asset freeze and travel ban on him as part of sanctions over Russia's military actions in Ukraine.
                “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
                Mark Twain

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Albany Rifles View Post
                  Executives in Russia, especially oil company ones, seemed tohave an affinity to windows the way a moth does to a buglight.

                  https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ce-2022-09-01/

                  "after falling from a hospital window in Moscow,"

                  ... this is straight out of a cold war spy novel. A bad one...

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by jlvfr View Post

                    "after falling from a hospital window in Moscow,"

                    ... this is straight out of a cold war spy novel. A bad one...
                    C'mon, the poor guy tripped and the three FSB agents standing directly behind him weren't able to save him. Accidents happen.
                    “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Albany Rifles View Post
                      Executives in Russia, especially oil company ones, seemed tohave an affinity to windows the way a moth does to a buglight.

                      https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ce-2022-09-01/

                      Ravil Maganov, the chairman of Russia's second-largest oil producer Lukoil, died on Thursday after falling from a hospital window in Moscow, two sources familiar with the situation said, becoming the latest in a series of businessmen to meet with sudden unexplained deaths.

                      The sources confirmed reports by several Russian media that the 67-year-old had plunged to his death, but the circumstances surrounding his fall were unclear.
                      All deaths of those who ask questions are unexplained, unclear and mysterious. Just another hit that we have no idea about who put out the contract. OTOH if on the other shoe, as recently, then the FSB is on it and names the perp in just a few days.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by tbm3fan View Post

                        All deaths of those who ask questions are unexplained, unclear and mysterious. Just another hit that we have no idea about who put out the contract. OTOH if on the other shoe, as recently, then the FSB is on it and names the perp in just a few days.
                        I'm pretty sure that, if it comes to that, the FSB will easily find the guily parties: "A group of ucranian nazi imperial nationalists is killing loyal russians in acts of terror. We also suspect western involvement"

                        Comment


                        • I think the reason the Russians so quickly came up with this story about the Ukrainian woman doing the car bombing on Dugina, is to suppress the idea that it was a homegrown opposition group, which seems more likely.
                          "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                            After Krajina, the cynic in me says there's only one go-no-go who matters and that is the Americans. The Iraq War should tell you what your country is willing to do while telling everyone else to eat rocks. So, if the Americans say go, you can bet Keiv will start running before she hits the ground.

                            Aside from that, we're still legally at war with North Korea and Seoul has claims all the way to the Yalu.
                            I think this is an apples to oranges comparison. It's one thing to supply a country with arms that is defending itself, it's quite another to instigate Ukraine into launching a second land war against a nuclear-armed neighbor after a peace agreement is reached.

                            And again, I don't think the sanctions, weapons supply, and financial/economic support to Ukraine would continue to the degree that they currently are in the interim period, if a peace agreement were reached.

                            Better to just continue to supply them, don't steer them toward a peace agreement if they don't want one, and keep up the sanctions, arming, and support, building up Ukraine's capabilities while Russia's degrade. Ukraine can out-attrit the Russians if it has the entire West backing it.

                            And it may be that it will take an unforeseeable change in power/regime in Russia for the war to come to a favorable end. These sorts of wars tend to end more often due to political reasons than what strictly happens on the battlefield, i.e. Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq 2, Afghanistan.
                            Last edited by Ironduke; 01 Sep 22,, 18:09.
                            "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Ironduke View Post
                              I think this is an apples to oranges comparison. It's one thing to supply a country with arms that is defending itself, it's quite another to instigate Ukraine into launching a second land war against a nuclear-armed neighbor after a peace agreement is reached.
                              Do you really think Croats taking Serb controlled Krajina under UNPROFOR CANBAT R22eR protection would have happened with an American no-go?

                              And the Americans couldn't care less when Israelis started killing Soviets.

                              Originally posted by Ironduke View Post
                              Ukraine can out-attrit the Russians if it has the entire West backing it.
                              No, she can't. There is noway in hell the Ukrainians can outbleed the Russians.

                              Originally posted by Ironduke View Post
                              And it may be that it will take an unforeseeable change in power/regime in Russia for the war to come to a favorable end. These sorts of wars tend to end more often due to political reasons than what strictly happens on the battlefield, i.e. Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq 2, Afghanistan.
                              You do understand that these countries' military strategy was to outbleed the opposition. And I will counter with England over Scotland, the Russians over the Golden Horde, China over Vietnam, Genghis Khan over Afghanistan. The counter to outbleeding the opposition is to bleed the locals white ... and if you haven't noticed, Russia has zero qualms about targetting the civilian population. Come winter, you will see this in full. The Russians ain't going to burn the civilians to death, they're going to drive them out into the snow. Chechnya 2.
                              Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 01 Sep 22,, 18:41.
                              Chimo

                              Comment


                              • The more I think about it. The more I feel that the current Ukrainian actions are feints. Four breaches within a 48 hour time span and all of them contained? Not one follow through strong force to decide a break through? At the very least, engage the Russian reserves to deny the Russians operational options? One breach I can understand being contained but four?

                                However, don't bet the kitchen sink just yet. If I can see this, so can the Russians.
                                funny you mention this, seems like some Russian milbloggers are thinking the same...

                                https://twitter.com/wartranslated/st...91285635055617

                                There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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