2022-2024 Russo-Ukrainian War

[TopHatter]

In that case, the line should have collapse within 30 minutes and yet, there is still combat all along the first line today. It has not collapse.

Sir that's a false dilemma. This isn't a binary situation. It isn't "Ukraine can't do anything right" versus "Russia should have folded like a cheap suit in a matter of minutes"

I've never predicted or even suggested that Russia will collapse or should collapse.

You're looking at Ukraine as if they were a Cold War NATO army, that should be operating and succeeding like a Cold War NATO army. And because they're naturally are doing neither, you're dismissing them completely as an effective fighting force.

This flies in the face of the fact that Ukraine is basically right across the street from Russia's front lawn and Russia has failed miserably in virtually every conceivable objective, except turning the easternmost Ukrainian cities into smoking piles of rubble.

The fact that a country (supposedly) as powerful as Russian can't do more than that, in their own neighborhood, tells me that Ukraine isn't as incompetent as you think.

If that was the case, the entirety of Ukrainian territory would be flying the Russian tricolor on every street corner.

[Officer of Engineers]

You're looking at Ukraine as if they were a Cold War NATO army, that should be operating and succeeding like a Cold War NATO army. And because they're naturally are doing neither, you're dismissing them completely as an effective fighting force.

No, I'm looking at this like every army in history. Once you have a breach, you pour everything you have through that breach. The Romans did it at Mazada. The Parthians did it with Cassius. The Crusaders did it at every castle in their rampage. The Turks replied in kind at Jerusalem. Hell, the entire WWI was all about trying to breach the trenches.

Once the Ukrainians have a breach (and they announced it), they should have been pouring their operational reserves through it. That way, you can threaten the line from both sides, the front and rear. That is what would cause the collapse, the fear that your rear is cut off and you retreat before you're cut off. That's the general panic - that you're cut off and surrounded.

It's one or the other, you can't have it both ways. The breach, if there is one, is contained. There is no collapse and the Ukrainians are still trying to punch through other parts of the line. I expect the Ukrainins to have better C3 than Alexander the Great and he did breaching operations via horse couriers.

[Officer of Engineers]

And it's not about the Ukrainians not doing anything right. As I stated, if there was a breach (we have no outside confirmation yet), it has been contained and that is a well established counter breach tactic ever since the days of seige warfare. Just because you collapse a wall doesn't mean you have free reign of the city. The city garrison would sally forth to meet you at the breach. Whether you win that fight is totally different than what you tried to do at that wall but for certain, you pull men away from other parts of the wall to fight the city garrison. Flesh is a lot easier to punch through than stone.

Lastly, the only thing that bugs the hell out of me about the Ukrainians is their propaganda machine. If they said nothing about a breach, I would not be looking for battlefield evidence. I get frustrated each and everytime I cannot verify their claims. Remember Bucha Pocket where they supposed to be on the verge of surrounding 10,000 Russians? Never happened. Not even close. Not even attempted.

[tbm3fan]

Sir, I daresay you're attributing a level of competence to the Russian armed forces that simply isn't there.

Kremlin says military operation going to plan as Ukrainian counterattack begins


The Kremlin has insisted that its so-called “special military operation” in Ukraine is going to plan despite the news that Kyiv’s troops have launched a long-awaited counteroffensive in the south of the country.

At his regular briefing with reporters, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov was asked to respond to Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s comments that Russian troops should flee after his military reportedly broke through several of their defences on Tuesday.

Peskov replied:

The special military operation continues, it continues methodically, and in co-ordination with the current plans. All objectives will be fulfilled.

Well the Russians are confident in their usual talk

He also commented on calls by some European leaders for a ban on tourist visas for Russians, describing the proposals as “irrational” and the latest manifestation of the west’s anti-Russian agenda.

He said Europe’s actions towards Russia were “bordering on insanity” adding:

Of course, such decisions cannot go unanswered.

Damn, there goes my winter vacation. Well, maybe Greenland while it is still there.

[tbm3fan]

Ukraine using decoy rockets to trick Russia into wasting weapons, reports say


Ukraine has deployed a fleet of dummy rockets to trick Russian forces into wasting expensive long-range missiles on pointless targets, according to reports.

The decoys are made of wood but look like US-supplied advanced rocket launcher systems when spotted by Russian drones, the Washington Post reports.

At least 10 Russian cruise missiles have reportedly been fired by Moscow’s naval fleet in the Black Sea at the dummy targets, a senior Ukrainian official told the paper.

A source said:

When the UAVs see the battery, it’s like a VIP target.

The initial success of the replicas has left Ukraine to make more of these wooden decoys in a bid to neutralise Russia’s artillery advantage on the battlefield.

In addition, the destruction of Ukraine’s fleet of fake Himars may have been behind Russia’s claims that it has taken out a large number of the systems.

Shades of WWII dummy troops in England before D-Day. Either that or the movie The Longest Day.

[Officer of Engineers]

Some more intel that came through courtesy of

Russia-Ukraine war: Kremlin-appointed Kherson leader reportedly flees to Russia; first grain ship docks in Africa – as it happened | The Guardian

Summary so far


It is 9am in Kyiv. Here is where we stand:

• Ukrainian troops are mounting a long-awaited counteroffensive in the southern region of Kherson, military officials have said. “Today we started offensive actions in various directions, including in the Kherson region,” Ukraine’s southern command spokesperson, Natalia Humeniuk, said on Monday. She declined to provide more details about the new offensive but said Ukraine’s recent strikes on Russia’s southern logistical routes had “unquestionably weakened the enemy”. Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, added in a Monday evening address: “If they want to survive, it is time for the Russian military to flee. The occupiers should know: we will oust them to the border. To our border, the line of which has not changed.”

• Senior adviser to Ukraine’s president Oleksiy Arestovych described the counteroffensive as a “planned slow operation to grind the enemy”. In an update posted to his official Telegram account, Arestovych said: “We do not fight for show-offs and high-profile phrases as an enemy. We fight for a cause. And this thing takes time and effort. Therefore, be patient. This process will not be very fast, but will end with the installation of the Ukrainian flag over all the settlements of Ukraine.”

• Kyiv’s forces have broken through Russian defences in several sectors of the frontline near the city of Kherson, a senior adviser to Zelenskiy claimed. Oleksiy Arestovych said Ukrainian forces were also shelling the ferries in the Kherson region that Moscow is using to supply Russian-occupied territory on the west bank of the Dnieper River. A separate Ukrainian military source told CNN that its forces have taken back four villages near the city of Kherson after breaking through the frontline in three places, with the main “target” being Kherson. The operation began with heavy shelling of Russian positions and the rear, forcing them to flee, the source was quoted as saying.

• Ukrainian forces have heightened artillery fire in the south, according to British intelligence. Several brigades of the Ukrainian armed forces increased the weight of artillery fires in front line sectors across southern Ukraine early on Monday, the UK Ministry of Defence said in its latest report. Ukrainian long-range precision strikes also continue to disrupt Russian resupply.

The Ukrainians did better than the Russians did since the retreat from Keiv. They capture 4 villages on the first 2 days of their offensive. However, like the Russians, they did not exploit their breaches. A hint maybe Arestovych's statement that the Russians still have vast combat power. I don't know if the Ukrainians lack any further combat power to exploit their gains or that they smell a trap and refuse to advance into one.

But the one thing that caught my eye is Arestovych's statement of a slow grind. It is the opinion of most military observers that Keiv cannot win a war of attrition. It is still my opinion. The best outcome of such a strategy is stalemate. It is not a war winning strategy. I do feel that this is a misdirection, that Keiv might try a big swing coming out of nowhere but is trying to lull Moscow's attention away from a stunning, if not a knock out, blow.

[Monash]

But the one thing that caught my eye is Arestovych's statement of a slow grind. It is the opinion of most military observers that Keiv cannot win a war of attrition. It is still my opinion. The best outcome of such a strategy is stalemate. It is not a war winning strategy. I do feel that this is a misdirection, that Keiv might try a big swing coming out of nowhere but is trying to lull Moscow's attention away from a stunning, if not a knock out, blow.

Part of the problem though is that Kherson is not the place where delivering a 'knockout blow' is really achievable. The geography of the battle field (the river) means there's no real opportunity for Ukraine to stage any kind of breakthrough and lightning advance that splits or cripples Russia's army in Southern Ukraine. Short of mass panic and the total collapse of local Russian resistance (or egregious tactical errors by local commanders) the best Ukraine could hope to achieve is to force the abandonment of Kherson and the withdrawal of Russian forces to the southern bank of the Dnieper. And at that point the shoe ends up on other foot. Now its Ukraine's turn to try and establish (and hold) a bridgehead on the other bank. And given Russia's superiority in tube artillery? Any such attempt would be either end in disaster or be horribly costly even if it was successful.

Recapturing Kherson would be a enormous morale boost for Ukraine and a political win that would would reassure nervous western backers but it wont destroy Russia's capacity to continue operations elsewhere. So even as an amateur I have to say any knockout blow needs to be delivered elsewhere. In fact it might make things easier for Russia because any units they manage withdraw intact form Kherson can be deployed elsewhere while they just hold their line at the river. After all its been months since Russia captured the city and given their apparent inability to exploit that success in some ways it's proven to be more of a liability to Russia than an asset - politics aside.

[Officer of Engineers]

Part of the problem though is that Kherson is not the place where delivering a 'knockout blow' is really achievable.

Not Kherson. Too many eyes and it's where the Russians are expecting the Ukrainians to hit. It's got to be somewhere where the Ukrainians can do a 90 degree turn and advance on. Don't know where. Why I suspect this is that the Ukrainians can't fight a war of attrition. Everyone knows it. So, what are they eyeing that can use the same prep work as Kherson but not Kherson?

[Monash]

Not Kherson. Too many eyes and it's where the Russians are expecting the Ukrainians to hit. It's got to be somewhere where the Ukrainians can do a 90 degree turn and advance on. Don't know where. Why I suspect this is that the Ukrainians can't fight a war of attrition. Everyone knows it. So, what are they eyeing that can use the same prep work as Kherson but not Kherson?

My wild arse guess? Somewhere along the confrontation line east of Zaporizhia and west of Donesk. Even if they don't break through all the way to the Sea of Azov just getting all the main roads running along the coast 'under their guns' would effectively sever Russian supply lines. If they're really lucky? Stage a break through south and then pivot west back towards Kherson, threatening Crimea in in the process. Probably a pipe dream but hey, even at my age I'm allowed to dream!

[TopHatter]

Not Kherson. Too many eyes and it's where the Russians are expecting the Ukrainians to hit. It's got to be somewhere where the Ukrainians can do a 90 degree turn and advance on. Don't know where. Why I suspect this is that the Ukrainians can't fight a war of attrition. Everyone knows it. So, what are they eyeing that can use the same prep work as Kherson but not Kherson?

Might this be like an Inchon situation? A horrible-on-paper place to launch an attack, with basically no preparatory advance bombardment, where the Russians are weakest because who in their right mind would attack such a place?

[Officer of Engineers]

My wild arse guess?

Outside of Keiv, it's as accurate as the CIA.

Might this be like an Inchon situation? A horrible-on-paper place to launch an attack, with basically no preparatory advance bombardment, where the Russians are weakest because who in their right mind would attack such a place?

That would sound like what I would want the Ukrainians to do. Playing safe against a superior foe is a surefire way to defeat. Playing it bold, however, just might shock them into confusion and collapse. That's how I would act. That's how I want the Ukrainian General Staff to act.

[Officer of Engineers]

The more I think about it. The more I feel that the current Ukrainian actions are feints. Four breaches within a 48 hour time span and all of them contained? Not one follow through strong force to decide a break through? At the very least, engage the Russian reserves to deny the Russians operational options? One breach I can understand being contained but four?

However, don't bet the kitchen sink just yet. If I can see this, so can the Russians.

[Goatboy]

But the one thing that caught my eye is Arestovych's statement of a slow grind. It is the opinion of most military observers that Keiv cannot win a war of attrition. It is still my opinion. The best outcome of such a strategy is stalemate. It is not a war winning strategy. I do feel that this is a misdirection, that Keiv might try a big swing coming out of nowhere but is trying to lull Moscow's attention away from a stunning, if not a knock out, blow.

Even if Ukraine can't win a slow grind war of attrition, and they know they can't, perhaps they realize that the fight for the left bank of the Dnieper (Kherson oblast), is the only possible battle anywhere in the entirety of Ukraine, where there is the possibility of victory, at least before the mud, because uniquely here, Ukraine can cut Russian resupply. They've certainly been attacking every bridge crossing, even pontoon bridge and even ferries, to influence the much vaunted "big Kherson push".

Maybe Ukraine has no real strategy after a successful Kherson takeover? Hard to imagine a Ukrainian offensive, post Kherson takeover, to retake Severodonetsk and Lysychansk no matter what happens in Kherson. Maybe it's desperation on Ukraine's part. Maybe they're hoping that routing Russia from the left bank of the Dnieper around Kherson, will convince Ukraine's friends to kick back more support?

[Officer of Engineers]

No NATO trained Officer, even if that Officer is not NATO, would ever accept starting an unwinnable fight. Your duty is to win and win big but at least win. Taking Kherson but leaving the rest in Russian hands is not winning. If we are going to start a fight, we're going to start a fight that we know we can win, not a maybe win, but a win. Sure, we'll get surprised here and there and would even lose a few fights but we don't start believing we will lose.

What has been presented by Arestovych is not a win. At best, it's a maybe win at Kherson but even that is in doubt given current performances.

That being said, the best strategy for the Ukrainians is to drain Russia of every good man and machine and then make peace. Use that peace to get NATO to arm and train the Ukrainian Army the fastest and with the mostest. In the meantime, Russia would be looking to do the same with the Chinese, Indians, North Koreans, and Iranians. Hopefully, the Ukrainians beat the Russians in that arms race but whatever the result, it would be a much leaner and much meaner Ukrainian Army. One who would have no qualms of a death match with the Russian Army in taking back lost terriroty.

[Ironduke]

That being said, the best strategy for the Ukrainians is to drain Russia of every good man and machine and then make peace. Use that peace to get NATO to arm and train the Ukrainian Army the fastest and with the mostest. In the meantime, Russia would be looking to do the same with the Chinese, Indians, North Koreans, and Iranians. Hopefully, the Ukrainians beat the Russians in that arms race but whatever the result, it would be a much leaner and much meaner Ukrainian Army. One who would have no qualms of a death match with the Russian Army in taking back lost terriroty.

I think this is a flawed idea. If Ukraine makes a peace agreement with Russia, that implies a recognition of Russia's territorial gains. Come the next round, when Ukraine were to attack, Ukraine is in the role of the "aggressor", even if they have a legitimate claim to the territory Russia controls.

In the mean time, the reasons for keeping sanctions in place on Russia to the degree that they are, and rationale for arming Ukraine to the extent we have been, and for free to boot, diminishes/disappears.

If Ukraine initiates a next round after a peace agreement with Russia, many countries in the West would also have an easy copout not to supply/aid Ukraine.