2022-2024 Russo-Ukrainian War

[Monash]

First news report on the Kherson offensive I've seen. From the Economist Magazine;

https://www.economist.com/europe/202...-occupied-city

[Goatboy]

"Ukrainian forces were shelling ferries that Russia was using to supply a pocket of territory on the west bank of the Dnipro river in the Kherson region"
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...es-2022-08-29/

How difficult is a ferry to take out? The one's Russia is using look like this
https://images.app.goo.gl/FCqy6bkFYEUoURFq5

Big, flat, unarmored, no cover, slow. How many ferries does Russia have access to in the Kherson region? These ferries are running 24/7 so I'd imagine knocking a few out is a very serious deal.

[Officer of Engineers]

All units have 72 hours of combat. So only after that does the ferry question need answering. It's damned easy to take them out if you have eyes on target (which the Ukrainian should) but at the moment, all Ukrainian guns are trying to keep their bellycrawlers alive. Remember, all units have 72 hours of fight in them. If you use guns to take out the ferry, they ain't supporting the infantry trying to advance.

To really stop to the ferries, you have to occupy the east side of the river. Else, the Russians can just bring up more.

[Officer of Engineers]

Another offensive announced but I don't see them doing anything different from last week. The Ukrainians "broke" through the first line of Russian defence. Great, two more to go before the you have the wild, wild west.

Neither side is doing what we consider maneuver war (strong on weak). It still looks like a meatgrinder though the only saving grace is the small number of troops involved vis-a-vi the days of WWII.

[Monash]

Another offensive announced but I don't see them doing anything different from last week. The Ukrainians "broke" through the first line of Russian defence. Great, two more to go before the you have the wild, wild west.

Neither side is doing what we consider maneuver war (strong on weak). It still looks like a meatgrinder though the only saving grace is the small number of troops involved vis-a-vi the days of WWII.

If and I do mean if the Ukrainians can push the confrontation line back far enough it's possible they might be able to get the far bank of the Dnieper around Kherson within conventional artillery range. That would put the Ukrainians in a position to potentially block resupply & escape routes from the city and thus drastically reduce any immediate need to try & fight their way in. The trouble of course is that the Russians know this as well. I've seen claims Russia has about 25000 troops in and around the city.

Of course even if the scenario outlined above came true Russia could probably still evac most if not all of it's manpower but what about all their equipment? The big question I see is whether Putin would insist that Russian troops stand and 'fight' for the city or whether he would listen to military advice and withdraw from Kherson before it becomes impossible to do so? Because unless the Russians can push the guns back out of range it amounts to a siege. And waiting too long to make a decision could well mean a hell of a lot of valuable equipment has to be abandoned/destroyed in situ.

(And why do I keep getting flash backs to 'Enemy at the Gates'.)

[Officer of Engineers]

If and I do mean if

Yesh, it's tough to read through the propaganda. If there was a "breach" of the first line, it has been contained. There has been zero reports of any Russian abandoning their positions enmassed, meaning that specific defence line has become unattainable. All reports indicate there still combat going on at the first line of Russian defence.

[Goatboy]

All units have 72 hours of combat. So only after that does the ferry question need answering. It's damned easy to take them out if you have eyes on target (which the Ukrainian should) but at the moment, all Ukrainian guns are trying to keep their bellycrawlers alive. Remember, all units have 72 hours of fight in them. If you use guns to take out the ferry, they ain't supporting the infantry trying to advance.

To really stop to the ferries, you have to occupy the east side of the river. Else, the Russians can just bring up more.

Hmm ok. I get what you're saying. I get why it's imperative to lay down a lot of artillery fire to support your advancing bellycrawlers, and keep them alive as you say, at least for 3 days (72 hours) makes sense to my layman brain. But what percentage of Ukrainian artillery in the Kherson region is needed to have a real affect on the logistics of Russian ferry transport? They can't spare a few? Since Ukraine is already shelling those ferries (per the article claim), perhaps they can afford to spare a few M-777s, perhaps firing Excalibur rounds? Spending 1 HIMARS rocket for 1 ferry seems reasonable, especially if the ferry is loaded up with equipment outbound.

Isn't Kherson, the West bank Kherson, the only place in Russian occupied Ukraine that will ever be susceptible to being overwhelmed with current UA tactics? It's not like knocking out bridges and ferries will matter in Kharkiv, Bakhmut or Severodonetsk, or anywhere in the Donbass or Kharkiv region.

Since the bridges are a no-go for truck transport, I'd think the knowledge that ferries are being destroyed might cause panic in the Russian army east of the river. Aside from helicopter and speedboats, is there any way to supply the Russian army in Kherson on the west bank of the river without ferries (or maybe pontoon bridges, but they're also being shelled)? Can knocking out the ferries create panic?

What's the worst that can happen by pulling some UA artillery assets away for destruction of ferries? Maybe Ukraine is playing craps, and trying to roll the hard 6 to see what happens. Ukraine needs to show their benefactors that they are capable of winning battles, not just re-occupying territory Russia vacated like North of Kviv and Kharkiv after a Russian withdrawal. Ukraine needs to show that it can win battles before the snow. Kherson seems their chance.

[Officer of Engineers]

The Russians still outgun the Ukrainians by 20 to 1. The few MRLS we supplied isn't going to change that ratio plus at least 2 M777 batteries have been destroyed. So, to answer your question is that there isn't enough Ukrainian guns to go around (there isn't enough to go around for the Russians either but they're better off). HIMARS original intent was counter-battery. You can bet the Russians are throwing artillery shells left, right, and centre and the Ukrainians need to take out those Russian guns before the Russian guns take out Ukrainian vanguards.

[Goatboy]

The Russians still outgun the Ukrainians by 20 to 1. The few MRLS we supplied isn't going to change that ratio plus at least 2 M777 batteries have been destroyed. So, to answer your question is that there isn't enough Ukrainian guns to go around (there isn't enough to go around for the Russians either but they're better off). HIMARS original intent was counter-battery. You can bet the Russians are throwing artillery shells left, right, and centre and the Ukrainians need to take out those Russian guns before the Russian guns take out Ukrainian vanguards.

Ok, but granting your position, does Ukraine have anything to lose by this counteroffensive? I've heard you mention that making a zero decision is far worse than making a bad decision. Seems like this is the best decision, given the circumstances, the UA can make. Ukraine simply must do something, for so many reasons. A static front seems a defeat given Russian resources. There are a lot of communication and cell phone intercepts from the Russian army. Morale doesn't appear to be high. Perhaps Panic can be induced?

[Albany Rifles]

All units have 72 hours of combat. So only after that does the ferry question need answering. It's damned easy to take them out if you have eyes on target (which the Ukrainian should) but at the moment, all Ukrainian guns are trying to keep their bellycrawlers alive. Remember, all units have 72 hours of fight in them. If you use guns to take out the ferry, they ain't supporting the infantry trying to advance.

To really stop to the ferries, you have to occupy the east side of the river. Else, the Russians can just bring up more.

Sir, this is a simple part of supporting the forward troops. It is classic battlefield interdiction. It can be done by aircraft as well as artillery. The Corps artillery of the Cold War was used in General Support to attack and disrupt follow on forces and to hit marshalling areas, bridges, road intersections, etc., i.e. the very chokepoints which separate follow on forces and supplies from getting to the lead echelons. This is not denying the forward troops they need...it is assisting them by isolating the battlefield. We did this effectively in the Gulf War & OIF and regularly practiced in exercises. Specific F-16 squadrons in Europe were tasked with Battlefield Air Interdiction, BAI. A BAI mission was briefed and flown at 100 feet at supersonic speed aimed at a geographic chokepoint. The F-16s would be loaded with cluster bombs and 1000 pound bombs and crisscross the target to plaster the target area and destroy the chokepoint.

[Monash]

Yesh, it's tough to read through the propaganda. If there was a "breach" of the first line, it has been contained. There has been zero reports of any Russian abandoning their positions enmassed, meaning that specific defence line has become unattainable. All reports indicate there still combat going on at the first line of Russian defence.

With respect I think its far early too say with any surety that the attack has been contained, after all its only been underway for less that 24 hours. Some reports indicate the first line of defence has been breached (mind you those same reports acknowledge that the first line was also the weakest). I've also read reports that the 2nd line has been 'attacked' but nothing else. So how large any breach is and to what extent the Russian's 2nd line of defense has been put under pressure??? Who knows.

But even if I was a betting man I wouldn't like to be putting coin down on the outcome of this particular fight - Russia has had a long time to prepare. The question is how well prepared in terms of manpower and munition reserves etc the Ukrainians are.

[Officer of Engineers]

24 hours? If you don't collapse the line within 2, it's contained. The reserves already contained you.

[TopHatter]

24 hours? If you don't collapse the line within 2, it's contained. The reserves already contained you.

Sir, I daresay you're attributing a level of competence to the Russian armed forces that simply isn't there.

[Officer of Engineers]

Ok, but granting your position, does Ukraine have anything to lose by this counteroffensive?

Men. Trained men at that.

I've heard you mention that making a zero decision is far worse than making a bad decision. Seems like this is the best decision, given the circumstances, the UA can make.

They've made their decision. Their decision is to plaster the Russians in front of their advance. Good or bad remains to be seen. If there was a mistake, it was made long before this current action. They allowed the Russians to fortify and to stockpile.

Ukraine simply must do something, for so many reasons. A static front seems a defeat given Russian resources. There are a lot of communication and cell phone intercepts from the Russian army. Morale doesn't appear to be high. Perhaps Panic can be induced?

Igonre that bullshit. We've been hearing that horsepuckey since the Russian retreat from Keiv. The regular Russian soldier is still shooting at and killing Ukrainians. That's all you need to know about their morale.

Sir, this is a simple part of supporting the forward troops. It is classic battlefield interdiction. It can be done by aircraft as well as artillery. The Corps artillery of the Cold War was used in General Support to attack and disrupt follow on forces and to hit marshalling areas, bridges, road intersections, etc., i.e. the very chokepoints which separate follow on forces and supplies from getting to the lead echelons. This is not denying the forward troops they need...it is assisting them by isolating the battlefield. We did this effectively in the Gulf War & OIF and regularly practiced in exercises. Specific F-16 squadrons in Europe were tasked with Battlefield Air Interdiction, BAI. A BAI mission was briefed and flown at 100 feet at supersonic speed aimed at a geographic chokepoint. The F-16s would be loaded with cluster bombs and 1000 pound bombs and crisscross the target to plaster the target area and destroy the chokepoint.

You're preaching to the choir (though I quit the choir once they want to sing Celine). I was merely commenting on the current Ukrainian action and explaining to Goatboy why they're doing what they're doing.

Come to think of it, blasting Celine would colllapse their morale.

[Officer of Engineers]

ir, I daresay you're attributing a level of competence to the Russian armed forces that simply isn't there.

In that case, the line should have collapse within 30 minutes and yet, there is still combat all along the first line today. It has not collapse.