2022-2024 Russo-Ukrainian War

[Officer of Engineers]

Washington Post's series on the beginning of the war, this time covering the initial defense of Kyiv. reminded me of this discussion here:

Clearly not written by anyone with any military knowledge. It's ColGen Syrsky, not Gen Col. 2S7 is a SPH, not a tank. The plans written here is clearly not what we saw in the Kiev defence. A knowlegeable military observer would have been able to square away the differences; ie explain how an immediate influx of 20K+ militia was able to fit into this schema without causing chaos (too many men in one spot, not enough in another).

Granted this was a contingency but why the hell was not Engineers involved, Mining/Cratering the roads with a makeshift machine gun next is the easiest way to slow down the Russians?

[astralis]

Clearly not written by anyone with any military knowledge. It's ColGen Syrsky, not Gen Col. 2S7 is a SPH, not a tank. The plans written here is clearly not what we saw in the Kiev defence. A knowlegeable military observer would have been able to square away the differences; ie explain how an immediate influx of 20K+ militia was able to fit into this schema without causing chaos (too many men in one spot, not enough in another).

Granted this was a contingency but why the hell was not Engineers involved, Mining/Cratering the roads with a makeshift machine gun next is the easiest way to slow down the Russians?

right, the primary issue I had with this is that it is too neat. the border guardsmen were caught completely unawares. not covered in the article, but the southern troops were operationally surprised.

even at Hostomel, where the CIA provided Ukraine a very early heads-up, the Ukrainians were only partially prepared. there was a QRF and artillery sighted in, but frankly if they were ready they could have and should have knocked out the vast majority of VVS helicopters. although the irony here is that Ukrainian failure to do so meant the Russians kept on funneling good money after bad, and so made their disaster worse.

interestingly enough the Ukrainian military had a different read for the 20K militia.

Ukrainians of all ages who had never held a gun rushed to take up arms after officials decided within days of the invasion to hand out weapons and arm a potential guerrilla resistance. Ukrainian military leaders bristled at the decision, and later said it caused friendly-fire incidents and interference with their force’s operations.

regardless, though, at the very least the Ukrainians -- very, very belatedly -- did come up with many of the recommendations you mentioned months ago. like moving their command posts to the field, and mining to form kill zones.

[Officer of Engineers]

Ukrainians of all ages who had never held a gun rushed to take up arms after officials decided within days of the invasion to hand out weapons and arm a potential guerrilla resistance. Ukrainian military leaders bristled at the decision, and later said it caused friendly-fire incidents and interference with their force’s operations.

Well that explains a lot about the friction between the civies and the military. Yeah, Ukrainian civies have yet to learn to just let the military do its job and not complicate things for brownie points. As the CinC, Zelensky is a walking clusterfuck. Now, I got where the decision to use HIMARS so early came from.

[Monash]

right, the primary issue I had with this is that it is too neat. the border guardsmen were caught completely unawares. not covered in the article, but the southern troops were operationally surprised.

even at Hostomel, where the CIA provided Ukraine a very early heads-up, the Ukrainians were only partially prepared. there was a QRF and artillery sighted in, but frankly if they were ready they could have and should have knocked out the vast majority of VVS helicopters. although the irony here is that Ukrainian failure to do so meant the Russians kept on funneling good money after bad, and so made their disaster worse.

interestingly enough the Ukrainian military had a different read for the 20K militia.



regardless, though, at the very least the Ukrainians -- very, very belatedly -- did come up with many of the recommendations you mentioned months ago. like moving their command posts to the field, and mining to form kill zones.

Still though, whose 'morale' issue would anyone here prefer to have? Ukraines - to dammed many untrained wannabes getting in the way. Or Russia's

[Officer of Engineers]

Still though, whose 'morale' issue would anyone here prefer to have? Ukraines - to dammed many untrained wannabes getting in the way. Or Russia's

Doesn't matter. There are ways (very old ways) to use both. For the wannables, "sit your ass down here. Don't move and shoot everything in front of you. Not to your sides. Not behind you. Especially not behind you. That's me. Just shoot straight up front. I'll come and get you when it's time to move." For the dontwannas, "there's one chance and one chance only for you to see tomorrow and that is through the enemy."

[Monash]

Doesn't matter. There are ways (very old ways) to use both. For the wannables, "sit your ass down here. Don't move and shoot everything in front of you. Not to your sides. Not behind you. Especially not behind you. That's me. Just shoot straight up front. I'll come and get you when it's time to move." For the dontwannas, "there's one chance and one chance only for you to see tomorrow and that is through the enemy."

Possibly but Ukraine has far more willing volunteers than Russia has prison scrapings & conscripted cannon fodder from occupied territories. (In fact from all reports the latter has already dried up.) Numbers are an advantage and albeit Russia could easily trump Ukraine if it mobilized so far there's zero evidence that will ever happen.

[Officer of Engineers]

You misunderstood. The prison scrappings are mercs, not penal battalion forces. Penal battalions don't offer much of a choice. You don't have a choice between combat or prison. It's combat or the firing squad. However, I was just answering your question of which I would rather have? The answer is that I can make use of both.

As for call up, Putin really has not pushed all the buttons just yet. I mean he couldn't even get Belarus to commit yet but when push comes to shove, you will see Belarus and the CARs fall into line. They don't have much of a choice. All of them rely on the Russian Army to stay in power. If the Russian Army goes, so goes their guarrantee of staying in power.

[jlvfr]

I think Putin hasn't put up a full call up because of the internal backlash this would cause. It would be admiting the russian army is "not winning", and would drag the general population into the war in a far more serious and relatable manner.

[astralis]

As the CinC, Zelensky is a walking clusterfuck.

if you think Zelensky is bad, wait til you see the other guy...:-)

Now, I got where the decision to use HIMARS so early came from.

as far as I can tell they (the Ukrainians in general) didn't have much of a choice in the matter. the Donbas defenders were going to get unmoored from their prepared defenses given the volume of Russian arty. the US wasn't gonna move a decisive number of HIMARS prior to the Ukrainians demonstrating tactical and operational proficiency, planning, and survivability.

no decisive action yes, but the Russians have been stopped. the Ukrainians will have their bite at the apple.

[tbm3fan]

I think Putin hasn't put up a full call up because of the internal backlash this would cause. It would be admiting the russian army is "not winning", and would drag the general population into the war in a far more serious and relatable manner.

It would be interesting to see exactly how deep the support is when young "real" Russians have to go fight rather than those "far eastern" Russians who don't look like us.

[Albany Rifles]

if you think Zelensky is bad, wait til you see the other guy...:-)



as far as I can tell they (the Ukrainians in general) didn't have much of a choice in the matter. the Donbas defenders were going to get unmoored from their prepared defenses given the volume of Russian arty. the US wasn't gonna move a decisive number of HIMARS prior to the Ukrainians demonstrating tactical and operational proficiency, planning, and survivability.

no decisive action yes, but the Russians have been stopped. the Ukrainians will have their bite at the apple.

Absolutely this. I believe that in all increasingly sophisticated weapons deliveries have had escalator clauses…I.e., show us you can effectively use what we have provided and you’ll get more and better.

At the end of the day we, the US, has to keep an eye in both directions…East & West.

And we do not have many production runs going for hi tech munitions…pretty much for what we need for our warplanes and some for allies. Keep in mid the US had to provide PGMs pretty early in 2011 to the Brits & French in Libya as they ran out of their supplies quickly.

[Officer of Engineers]

if you think Zelensky is bad, wait til you see the other guy...:-)

Not cheering for him..

as far as I can tell they (the Ukrainians in general) didn't have much of a choice in the matter. the Donbas defenders were going to get unmoored from their prepared defenses given the volume of Russian arty. the US wasn't gonna move a decisive number of HIMARS prior to the Ukrainians demonstrating tactical and operational proficiency, planning, and survivability.

Ok, you're telling me that they can accept a non-Ukrainian system; get trained up, deployed from the Polish border, all the way to the front but they can't hobble together a single Bde.

ino decisive action yes, but the Russians have been stopped. the Ukrainians will have their bite at the apple.

Not this year.

[jlvfr]

Well, he did it: Putin orders Russian military to beef up forces by 137,000

Other articles state he wants them by 2023... so, rushed hiring? Increased draft?

[Monash]

Well, he did it: Putin orders Russian military to beef up forces by 137,000

Other articles state he wants them by 2023... so, rushed hiring? Increased draft?

Unless the 'Tzar' announces a national mobilization (and there's been zero evidence so far that he's prepared to take that risk) the only options are squeezing more out of the annual draft in non-ethnic Russian parts of the country, offering bigger sign up bonuses and salaries to attract contract soldiers or putting pressure on the 'Stans' to deliver more 'volunteers'. That or it's just another bullshit propaganda statement designed to intimidate both Ukraine and the West.

My best guess? A combination of all of the above. Which means the numbers quoted by Putin will (as usual) bear no resemblance whatsoever to the numbers Russia might actually manage to achieve. So IMO his announcement its likely to be somewhere in the vicinity of at least 70% plus pure propaganda! I mean lets face it. If Russia had capability of achieving anywhere near the figures quoted by Putin it would have started to do so already. And that being the case after 6 months there should at least be some evidence of it on the battlefield already. There isn't!

[Ironduke]

Live videos of the Antonivsky Bridge getting hit (yet again), from two perspectives:

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/com...st_regards_to/
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/com...he_antonovsky/