2022-2024 Russo-Ukrainian War

[tbm3fan]

A very incorrect eval. There's no mutiny, not even mass desertion. The Russian Army is still in the fight and Ukrainian soldiers and civilians are still dying. Plus all available intel says Putin still enjoys majority Russian voter support.

No mass desertion but one could still have low morale among the infantry who could feel they are stuck between a rock and a hard place. Is it infantry killing Ukrainian soldiers and civilians or rockets and artillery? As for his support that is a given since the Russian people have always liked strong leaders no matter who they are and no matter how many dissenters they kill off. Plus he has prepped his people with that one all important use of the word NAZI. So his support would be a given. Right now it is Putin versus the West of which he despises and wants a compliant non-democratic state in Ukraine which belongs to him anyway. I'm sure he is counting on the west to cave in eventually and I am sure he has no respect for Biden considering he took Crimea under Obama and didn't have to pay for it back then so why now.

[Ironduke]

I guess the point is its the economics that matter. China can, if it wants re-equip Russia with some if not all of the assets expended during this war.

But they're not going to.

[jlvfr]

In terms of internal politics, can Putin even aford to buy chinese? It would be tantamount to admit, to his own people, that their own industry is not up to the task. There's no way he would be able spin going from "Russia is best, we rule world" to "we gotta buy Chinese"... in many people's minds, China is still making cheap knockoffs of russian/soviet era gear...

And does Russia even have the money to buy all that it would need?

[Officer of Engineers]

No mass desertion but one could still have low morale among the infantry who could feel they are stuck between a rock and a hard place.

Welcome to my world. My RSM has a saying whenever higher ranks asked about morale. "I don't know shit about morale but the troops are pissed off." However, the mission is and always will be first. You don't place your people above the mission. Only when the mission is unattainable would you consider the well being of your people. And yes, part of the mission is to make sure you have enough force to proceed after mission objectives. It does you zero good that you don't have enough men left to defend your objective after you took it.

Is it infantry killing Ukrainian soldiers and civilians or rockets and artillery?

We've got enough eye witnesses to war crimes.

As for his support that is a given since the Russian people have always liked strong leaders no matter who they are and no matter how many dissenters they kill off. Plus he has prepped his people with that one all important use of the word NAZI. So his support would be a given. Right now it is Putin versus the West of which he despises and wants a compliant non-democratic state in Ukraine which belongs to him anyway. I'm sure he is counting on the west to cave in eventually and I am sure he has no respect for Biden considering he took Crimea under Obama and didn't have to pay for it back then so why now.

All that means is that you have to respect who and what he is. How much of a clusterfuck you think he is? He can kill you. He will kill you. The only thing stopping him is he knows we can kill him first but if we dismiss him as an invalid ... don't dismiss him.

[Officer of Engineers]

But they're not going to.

Oh yes, they are. You do remember intel about Putin asking Xi for weapons. Putin and Xi are already laying the ground work. To date, not a single Russian arms contract has been cancelled despite sanctions. Expect big contract announcements after the war.

[Officer of Engineers]

In terms of internal politics, can Putin even aford to buy chinese? It would be tantamount to admit, to his own people, that their own industry is not up to the task. There's no way he would be able spin going from "Russia is best, we rule world" to "we gotta buy Chinese"... in many people's minds, China is still making cheap knockoffs of russian/soviet era gear...

Either they buy Chinese or Kiev gets the mostest the firstest.

And does Russia even have the money to buy all that it would need?

AGAIN! Russian Jet Engine Blueprints! The Chinese have been hounding the Russians for decades for license production.

[astralis]

assuming Putin survives this war, Russia will have the money.

the Russian economy is getting mauled but oil and gas is still being sold, albeit at a massive discount.

ironically because of the sanctions Russia -can't- buy a lot of stuff from abroad now, but that's how they can afford all the bribes to the Russian people and the "volunteers".

doesn't mean things are hunky-dory on the economic side; Russia's high-tech sector is basically gone and will need to be rebuilt from scratch. it's vastly sped up the process by which Russia becomes a PRC resource colony, but hey -- Putin chose this.

[astralis]

It's not something I worry about. You make the best decision possible based on the best intel available and yes, that decision will be heavily influenced by my biases. I'm not going to second guess a decision that I need to execute right now. A bad decision is far, far worst than no decision. At the very least, you know you made a bad decision. Just always be prepared to correct your mistakes, ie always have a contigency to get the hell out of dodge.

Are we still talking about war here?! :)

[Officer of Engineers]

Are we still talking about war here?! :)

I was answering Amled on how to avoid Victory Disease/Fighting the last war mindset. The answer is that I don't. It doesn't even come into my mind. We've already overloaded with intel. We don't need to add in superficial stuff.

[Monash]

Oh yes, they are. You do remember intel about Putin asking Xi for weapons. Putin and Xi are already laying the ground work. To date, not a single Russian arms contract has been cancelled despite sanctions. Expect big contract announcements after the war.

There are however serious questions over how many new contacts Russia will be getting in the next few years given the performance of those systems in the field. And yes I know its the human element (poor training, bad tactics and even worse planning) that has, in large measure exposed those systems to failure but it's the human element which is supposed to help your country sell those systems to foreign customers in the first place. Any potential foreign buyer looking at what has happened in Ukraine has to be seriously wondering whether their own armed forces can make Russian systems 'work' in the field when Russia's own don't seem to have been able to. Unfair perhaps but very human.

That and it's an open question whether or not Russia is even in a position to deliver on partially completed foreign orders given its struggling to even re-equip its own forces! Basic stuff like towed artillery and rifles etc, probably not a problem. But most of the more complex stuff that requires foreign components or is produced using western supplied machine tools that need maintenance? I'd be very worried if I placed an order last year for a dozen or so SU-30s or similar systems. In fact I'd probably be asking for my deposit back. And of course Russia's arms industry is hugely dependent on foreign sales to help sustain its arms industry (like everyone else is). So 'interesting' times ahead for Russian industry.

[Officer of Engineers]

You remember my saying? What's the best plane/gun/ship/tank/knife/club/toothpick in the world? The one that is coming to my rescue when I'm being bayonet charged by a 1000 pissed off fire breathing dragons. What's the worst plane/gun/ship/tank/knife/toothpick in the world? The one that is running away when I'm being bayonet charged by a 1000 pissed off fire breathing dragons. Just get it into the hands of the people who needs to use them. They'll figure it out ... or die trying.

Do note the mass herd slaughter has stopped. Besides, the Ukrainians did good with the exact same systems.

However, in the Chinese context, there is zero question that they need Russian jet engines. The ones they build themselves are laughably underpower and requires more maintenance than their Russian cousins. The newly Chinese "stealth" planes could not do foreign sales without Russian engines ... and frankly, they need to replace the Chinese engines with Russian ones in their deployed J-20s.

[Monash]

You remember my saying? What's the best plane/gun/ship/tank/knife/club/toothpick in the world? The one that is coming to my rescue when I'm being bayonet charged by a 1000 pissed off fire breathing dragons. What's the worst plane/gun/ship/tank/knife/toothpick in the world? The one that is running away when I'm being bayonet charged by a 1000 pissed off fire breathing dragons. Just get it into the hands of the people who needs to use them. They'll figure it out ... or die trying.

Do note the mass herd slaughter has stopped. Besides, the Ukrainians did good with the exact same systems.

However, in the Chinese context, there is zero question that they need Russian jet engines. The ones they build themselves are laughably underpower and requires more maintenance than their Russian cousins. The newly Chinese "stealth" planes could not do foreign sales without Russian engines ... and frankly, they need to replace the Chinese engines with Russian ones in their deployed J-20s.

The schematics for Russian military engines are a one shot deal though, once those are in Chinese hands give it four or five years or so and Russia will never sell a single jet engine to China ever again! They can probably also right off the bulk of their export customers as well as they watch China undercut them. So whatever cheque Russia expects to get as payment in return better have lots of zero's on the end. Lots! Because it's the last one they'll ever see.

[Officer of Engineers]

The schematics for Russian military engines are a one shot deal though, once those are in Chinese hands give it four or five years or so and Russia will never sell a single jet engine to China ever again! They can probably also right off the bulk of their export customers as well as they watch China undercut them. So whatever cheque Russia expects to get as payment in return better have lots of zero's on the end. Lots! Because it's the last one they'll ever see.

It won't be that easy. Not the first time the Russians dealt with licenses (check out the MiG-21 deals). Aside from the inital fee, the Russians also gets a royalty per engine built. The problem is the next generation of engines. They just gave the Chinese a heads up to where to go in their engine research. They would learn why their own engines are underpowered and why they're maintenance queens.

[Bigfella]

it's vastly sped up the process by which Russia becomes a PRC resource colony, but hey -- Putin chose this.

He started down that road decisively in 2014 & just opened up the throttle & gunned it in February. By the time this has all played out China will have everything it wants/needs from Russia. Might take a few years, but they will get there.

Xi's reluctance to do more than make a few friendly noises so far lets Russia dig the hole deeper while keeping the US/EU sweet. By the time China is ready it will be the best seller's market it will ever have. It can tick off the stuff it wants one by one.

[astralis]

Washington Post's series on the beginning of the war, this time covering the initial defense of Kyiv. reminded me of this discussion here:

To be fair, there was zero ways for Putin to come to any other conclusion. Even we predicted Kiev would fall within 72 hours. What did Putin (and us) see? Zero mobilization (mobilization was called hours after the Russians crossed the border). Zero prep work on the invasion routes. There was litterally nothing between the border and the gates of Kiev stopping the Russians. The Ukrainian Army was concentrated in the East against LNR and DNR with exposed (over-exposed in fact) LOCs to their rear. It was litterally 20K Ukrainian citizens grabbing whatever guns they had and ran forward straight into Russian armour. It was militia, unorganized militia at that, and not any organized defence that saved Kiev. The Ukrainians were litterally throwing canon fodder into the Russian advance to stop them.

Putin couldn't predict that. We couldn't. How the hell do you predict a mob that wasn't there just hours before?

====

Bookish and pensive, Gen. Col. Oleksandr Syrsky is the kind of seasoned military officer who plans for all contingencies — even the scenarios he deems highly unlikely.

The notion that Kyiv — where urban warfare would vex even the most sophisticated military — could be Putin’s primary initial target defied belief for most of the Ukrainian elite, even within the armed forces.

“To think the leadership of Russia would unleash such brazen, large-scale aggression, honestly speaking, I could not even imagine it,” recalled Syrsky, who had fought Russia and its separatist proxies in eastern Ukraine and was tapped to lead Kyiv’s defense just before the invasion. “It seemed to me that if active hostilities were to start, they would most likely start in the east, around or within the borders of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

“But we’re the military,” said Syrsky, one of several top Ukrainian military and political officials who spoke at length about the battle for Kyiv, some of them, like Syrsky, in their first extensive interviews. “Therefore, regardless of what I believed or didn’t believe, how it all seemed, I still carried out the activities required.”

Given the array of Putin’s forces along Ukraine’s borders, Syrsky had determined that if the Russians did attack Kyiv, their columns would advance along two or three major highways on what they foresaw as a fast, decapitating drive to the government quarter in Kyiv. The Kremlin battle plan assumed the city would be left defended by only weak Ukrainian forces, disoriented by the political chaos as Zelensky and his ministers fled.

To protect the city, Syrsky had organized two rings of forces, one in the outer suburbs and one within the capital. He wanted the outer ring to be as far from the inner ring as possible to protect the downtown area from shelling and keep the Russians fighting on the approaches to Kyiv.

Syrsky divided the city and the surrounding region into sectors and assigned generals from the military education centers to lead each area, creating a clear chain of command to which all Ukrainian military units and security services would answer. Tactical decisions would be made immediately by officers on the ground without having to consult headquarters.

About a week before the invasion, the Ukrainian military had moved all command posts into the field toward the probable axes of a Russian advance. Syrsky had also issued an order to move the army’s aviation assets, including helicopters and jets, off major bases, putting them well away from obvious airstrike targets.

When it came to tank power, however, only one mechanized brigade, the 72nd, was available to defend the capital — clearly insufficient for such a large city. As a fix, Syrsky said, he ordered all the military education centers to create special makeshift battalions and had the artillery systems normally used for training brought to the capital area.

Some of those systems came from the Divychki training center southeast of Kyiv, where Ukraine years earlier had brought back into service heavy Soviet-era tanks known as 2S7 Pions, or Peonies. Juggernauts of artillery warfare, each weighing 46 tons and carrying 203mm howitzers, they can fire shells of over 240 pounds more than 20 miles.

Syrsky ordered his artillerymen to take up defensive positions outside the city, to the northeast and northwest, the areas likely to face a Russian onslaught.

That single move turned out to be critical, according to Kyiv’s mayor, former boxing champion Vitali Klitschko, because Russia targeted the bases where those systems were normally housed in the very first hours of the war.

“The leadership of the country said there wouldn’t be a war, but the military knew,” Klitschko said.

The Ukrainians largely kept their preparations to themselves. A senior U.S. defense official said Washington knew more about Russia’s plan to invade than about Ukraine’s plan for defense, fueling doubts about how Kyiv would fare. U.S. officials suspected that the Ukrainian military was wary of sharing war plans while its political leadership was downplaying the likelihood of war, the official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive matter.