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  • Originally posted by astralis View Post
    gotcha.

    well, if nothing else I suspect wherever the border is at the end of round 2, it will be heavily mined and fortified.
    I Hope to Hell So !!!!!!!! I've been screaming since 2014 to do so!
    Chimo

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    • Originally posted by Monash View Post
      China built up its military over decades, buying what its economy could support at the time and (as always) at the expense of investment in other priorities. It also had enormous, underutilized productive capacity which meant its industrial base could expand rapidly and absorb the increase in military expenditure. Finally it had eager Western partners only to happy to sell it all technology and raw materials it needed to fuel that expansion. Russia doesn't have either the capacity to expand its economy or the for that matter the willing partners. Well at least not ones who won't screw Russia for all its worth anyway. Which BTW was not the case when it came to the western powers & China, at least not in the early days, now is another story.
      Well, several things. China's real power expansion only happenned in the last 10-15 years. Before then, the MiG-21 (J-7) and T-55 (Type-59) were the highest tech weapons deployed en mass.China's only source of military technology was USSR/Russia and the early days was barter. I forgot how many tons of soybeans for a single SU-27. To give you an idea just how much say the Soviets had, Moscow vetoed a Chinese J-7 squadron sale to the USAF AGGRESSOR squadron and this was pre-Tianamen and the Chinese were still on our side during the Cold War.

      Again, the Israelis sold the Chinese the LAVI blueprints but it took Russian design houses to redesign it for Chinese factories. The Chinese didn't have the metalurgy to duplicate the LAVI and thus, the Russians have to redesign the plane's stress points that can accept the metalurgy the Chinese do have.

      Even today, there are things the Chinese do not have. Despite their claim of stealth aircrafts, they lack the engines that the planes truly need to make it even a 4.5 Generation plane. Hence, why they need Russian engines. Thus, a very simple deal can be made. A single tank for every engine produced in China (license fee). Another barter.

      Edit: actually re-reading your post, I don't think I'm following. All I wrote was how easy it is for China to replenish Russian losses because Russia has something China really, really wants - Russian jet engines. Without them, Chinese stealth aircrafts are nothing more than missile magnets.
      Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 23 Aug 22,, 04:24.
      Chimo

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      • I guess the point is its the economics that matter. China can, if it wants re-equip Russia with some if not all of the assets expended during this war. Problem is they still have to be paid for. And Putin has spent the best part of the past decade building up Russia's armed forces to the point they were at just before the war started. If he could have done it quicker he would have. Now? By all reports a large chunk of that 10 years worth of investment has gone up in smoke.

        The limiting factor then is not so much China's willingness to re-equip Russia or even the ability of Russia's own military/industrial complex to build new systems. It's the ability of the Russia to pay for all that needs to be replaced in a short time frame that's the question. That's why I think the 5-10 year time span is realistic. If it took 10 years before sanctions hit to to achieve the level of early 22 I don't see how it can be done quicker now post sanctions.
        Last edited by Monash; 23 Aug 22,, 06:44.
        If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

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        • That will depend on what Putin will accept. I mean ithe Chinese could litterally gift him 3 whole armies of T-55s that just sitting in the Gobi desert. It ain't worth the cost to transport them to the scrap iron yard.
          Chimo

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          • Actually, I take that back. Do any of those kids know how to drive a stick?
            Chimo

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            • Originally posted by Monash View Post
              I guess the point is its the economics that matter. China can, if it wants re-equip Russia with some if not all of the assets expended during this war. Problem is they still have to be paid for. And Putin has spent the best part of the past decade building up Russia's armed forces to the point they were at just before the war started. If he could have done it quicker he would have. Now? By all reports a large chunk of that 10 years worth of investment has gone up in smoke.

              The limiting factor then is not so much China's willingness to re-equip Russia or even the ability of Russia's own military/industrial complex to build new systems. It's the ability of the Russia to pay for all that needs to be replaced in a short time frame that's the question. That's why I think the 5-10 year time span is realistic. If it took 10 years before sanctions hit to to achieve the level of early 22 I don't see how it can be done quicker now post sanctions.
              I agree with you that Russia would need a long lead time to replace what she has lost. No money, questionable industrial infrastructure, and on going corruption. That is just equipment but what about personnel? General mobilization would do that but I don't see that happening. Continue to rely on less Russian Russians through conscription or contracts? Maybe but with word having gotten around how successful can that be? More important I believe moral is in the dumpster so deep it will take untold years to change that. Of course the Joker is Putin so there.

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              • Originally posted by Monash View Post
                I guess the point is its the economics that matter. China can, if it wants re-equip Russia with some if not all of the assets expended during this war. Problem is they still have to be paid for. And Putin has spent the best part of the past decade building up Russia's armed forces to the point they were at just before the war started. If he could have done it quicker he would have. Now? By all reports a large chunk of that 10 years worth of investment has gone up in smoke.

                The limiting factor then is not so much China's willingness to re-equip Russia or even the ability of Russia's own military/industrial complex to build new systems. It's the ability of the Russia to pay for all that needs to be replaced in a short time frame that's the question. That's why I think the 5-10 year time span is realistic. If it took 10 years before sanctions hit to to achieve the level of early 22 I don't see how it can be done quicker now post sanctions.
                Unless there's a charitable donation from China, I think there's portions of their losses they could replace in 5 years, but they can't do it all, and it would be a massively expensive undertaking, on top of paying for normal procurements costs. They'd have to probably double procurement costs, and double production just to replace their current combat vehicle losses in 5 years, and those are piling up everyday. That's not including current operating costs, plus replacing the countless ammunition and ordnances used, aircraft and naval losses, gear, payouts to families, medical costs, recruiting drives, training unlisted, maintenance costs...

                I think it will all depend on the condition of the Russian economy in the coming months and years. A dramatic rise in defense spending will be needed and will be tougher to stomach for the average Russian if their GDP shrinks, inflation keeps rising, and the war drags on.

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                • What charitable donations? AGAIN, the Chinese REALLY, REALLY, REALLY WANTS Russian jet engine blueprints! It's worth it to them to trade entire tank armies for it.

                  Don't think the Chinese would do it? The joint Sino-Pakistani JF-17/FC-1 fighter jet program. The Chinese were supposed to buy 178 planes to offset the cost of development. The China Air Force absolutely despised the plane but under orders to buy. What did the China Air Force do? They gave the money to the Pakistanis instead. Translation: they gave the Pakistanis an entire Air Force. This when they got nothing in return but Pakistani gratitude.

                  What do you think the Chinese would do for Russian jet engine blueprints?
                  Chimo

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                  • Fine, call it a trade then. Without a trade for massive amounts of Chinese equipment to replace losses, it's going to be a massively expensive undertaking to replace it domestically in the next 5 years.

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                    • Originally posted by tbm3fan View Post
                      More important I believe moral is in the dumpster so deep it will take untold years to change that. Of course the Joker is Putin so there.
                      A very incorrect eval. There's no mutiny, not even mass desertion. The Russian Army is still in the fight and Ukrainian soldiers and civilians are still dying. Plus all available intel says Putin still enjoys majority Russian voter support.

                      Chimo

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                      • Originally posted by statquo View Post
                        Fine, call it a trade then. Without a trade for massive amounts of Chinese equipment to replace losses, it's going to be a massively expensive undertaking to replace it domestically in the next 5 years.
                        I can't see Russia not calling in the Chinese. There will be a round 3 and without China, Putin has no chance of getting the mostest the firstest before Kiev gets it from NATO.
                        Chimo

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                        • There's no mutiny, not even mass desertion.
                          not quite. LNR meatgrinder troops have refused to deploy outside of LNR. Russian troops have refused to participate, though on a non-organized basis (nothing bigger than company level as far as I can tell). orders for perceived suicidal attacks have been disobeyed.

                          note that it was Wagner mercs that led the last major Russian offensive at Popasna and not Russian regulars.

                          morale sucks, it just hasn't cracked. yet.
                          There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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                          • I will rephrase. The Russians have yet to raise Penal Battalions.
                            Chimo

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                            • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                              I will rephrase. The Russians have yet to raise Penal Battalions.
                              Do these count as Penal Battalions?

                              Rights Group Says Hundreds Of Prisoners In Russia's North Caucasus Recruited For War In Ukraine

                              A human rights group that monitors the treatment of inmates at Russian penitentiaries says hundreds of men at a prison in the North Caucasus region of Adygea have agreed to be sent to fight in Russia’s war against Ukraine as a result of aggressive recruiting.

                              The founder of the organization Gulagu.net, Vladimir Osechkin, told RFE/RL on July 11 that two sources told him that some 300 inmates at Correctional Colony No. 1 in the town of Tlyustenkhabl had been recruited by the private military company Vagner, which has ties to the Kremlin and is involved in the war in Ukraine.

                              A day earlier, Gulagu.net issued a video it said was taken in the penitentiary in Adygea, where former law enforcement officers are incarcerated, in which an apparent inmate talks about his friends being recruited to go "either to rob or to fight."

                              Osechkin, who left Russia several years ago and is based in France, said that there had been "a flow" of complaints in the last two weeks from relatives of inmates and recently released former inmates at penitentiaries in some 20 regions of Russia who reported recruitment campaigns behind bars.

                              "About two and a half months ago, we began receiving information indicating that the FSB (Federal Security Service) started visiting penitentiaries for former law enforcement officers, to recruit inmates. They were interested in inmates who had experience taking part in military operations, promising early release in exchange of readiness to go to the war,” Osechkin said. “Almost nobody among those who really have had such an experience wished to go to [fight in] the war."

                              Osechkin's group has said that such recruitment campaigns have been reported at prisons for former law enforcement officers in the town of Shakhty, in the Rostov region, which borders Ukraine; in the southern city of Krasnodar; and in St. Petersburg.

                              Facing heavy casualties in a war whose end may be months or years away, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s government and the military have taken numerous steps to bolster recruitment without, at least for now, ordering a general mobilization that could be politically risky.

                              Ukrainian authorities have claimed that Russia has lost more than 37,400 soldiers and officers since it launched the large-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, while Western intelligence agencies have said the number probably exceeds 20,000. The Russian Defense Ministry last released casualty figures in late March, saying that 1,351 of its personnel had died.

                              Another human rights group, Free Buryatia, said earlier that some 150 soldiers in Russia's Republic of Buryatia quit the armed forces after they took part in the war in Ukraine, despite pressure imposed on them.

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                              • No, these are mercs. Your only choice in Penal Battalions is firing squad or advance against the enemy. In case you want to retreat, a machine gun nest is waiting for you.
                                Chimo

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