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  • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    You would know it as Victory Disease. Always thinking the enemy is too stupid to counter your military arrogance. That is you can repeat your victory over and over and the enemy will make the same mistakes over and over. The Russians won the 2014 War. They expected the Ukrainians to fight in the exact same manner as in 2014. That when the Ukrainians are being outmaneuvered, they will break and run for it. Thus, they had no answer when the Ukrainians decided to hold the ground to the last man, thus forcing the Russians to gain their ground with their last man. Something they were not prepared to do..

    The point here is that for Round 3, both sides would be tempted to repeat what worked for them this round, not thinking the other guy may try something different since clearly what they did the last time didn't worked
    Even a layman like me has at times come across the axiom that states something like:
    “…how generals often tend to focus on past battles, rather than on the one facing them!”
    A generalization I’m sure, but maybe with a grain of truth.
    So how do the people, who plan a battle; and who probably know the axiom much better then I, avoid its allure?
    When we blindly adopt a religion, a political system, a literary dogma, we become automatons. We cease to grow. - Anais Nin

    Comment


    • Originally posted by statquo View Post

      Just to expand on this.. the thing I don't understand is Russia is next door to Ukraine, Putin has gone on and on about the historical ties and culture that the two hold, how could he miscalculate so badly that the majority of the population, including the government, wouldn't fold like a cheap tent and switch sides to the Russians? This isn't some country on the other side of the world that you hardly know. And I think its apparent he thought that. They hardly used artillery in the first phase of the occupation, perhaps in an attempt to preserve the infrastructure of the country because of the belief that the invasion 'should' be over in a matter of days/weeks. The Ukraine population mobilized to fight to the death. Even many Russian-speaking Ukrainians are on the Kiev side. How could you not recognize that before giving the order to invade?
      It all likelihood it's a continuation of the Soviet/Russian intelligence apparatus telling the bosses what they want to hear. That's hardly limited to the Russians of course, but KGB was notorious for it and FSB/SVR are still the KGB just split into two agencies.

      Putin wanted to hear that 2014 could be replicated on a larger scale, with the same reaction from the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the Western world, and with the same stunning results.

      So that's what he was told and that's how the operation was planned and executed.
      “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

      Comment


      • On another note re; the possibility (probability?) of a round three should a peace deal of some sort be reached I was watching a YouTube video recently where the poster tried to put some parameters around the ability of the Russia to rebuild its armed forces back to a level approximating what it had at the start of the war. Allowing for imperfect information - for example they only had access to very limited historic data on Russian military spending plus western estimates on the likely state of the economy both now & going forward under sanctions as well as estimates for equipment loss rates etc (all of which leaves a lot of 'wiggle room') I still found the presentation interesting.

        For a start they estimate tank production will take a king hit with only a limited number of the T-72s current rusting away (sorry held in reserve) being fit for upgrade to the latest variant and not in numbers big enough to totally replace losses. Beyond that T80 and T-90 were apparently in very low rate production even before the war started and rely on at least some western components anyway. The Armarta? Probably wont see light of day at all! The same was true for other expensive equipment systems like self propelled artillery (vs towed) and missile systems used in Ukraine. With sanctions in place Russia would struggle to replace what has been lost and probably couldn't afford to do so anyway..

        Best guess if Putin was prepared to impose significant economic hardship on Russian voters (e.g increase taxes & transfer funding away from public services. pensions and salaries etc) was at least five years, more likely closer to ten! Here's the post anyway. I Hadn't watched this poster before so I'm not sure how much spin/bias was in play. If they are right. Round three won't be possible for long time, at least not as a invasion. Constant artillery duels at the border are another matter.

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9SJHZAG4c2w
        Last edited by Monash; 23 Aug 22,, 01:16.
        If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

        Comment


        • Originally posted by statquo View Post
          Just to expand on this.. the thing I don't understand is Russia is next door to Ukraine, Putin has gone on and on about the historical ties and culture that the two hold, how could he miscalculate so badly that the majority of the population, including the government, wouldn't fold like a cheap tent and switch sides to the Russians? This isn't some country on the other side of the world that you hardly know. And I think its apparent he thought that. They hardly used artillery in the first phase of the occupation, perhaps in an attempt to preserve the infrastructure of the country because of the belief that the invasion 'should' be over in a matter of days/weeks. The Ukraine population mobilized to fight to the death. Even many Russian-speaking Ukrainians are on the Kiev side. How could you not recognize that before giving the order to invade?
          Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
          It all likelihood it's a continuation of the Soviet/Russian intelligence apparatus telling the bosses what they want to hear. That's hardly limited to the Russians of course, but KGB was notorious for it and FSB/SVR are still the KGB just split into two agencies.

          Putin wanted to hear that 2014 could be replicated on a larger scale, with the same reaction from the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the Western world, and with the same stunning results.

          So that's what he was told and that's how the operation was planned and executed.
          To be fair, there was zero ways for Putin to come to any other conclusion. Even we predicted Kiev would fall within 72 hours. What did Putin (and us) see? Zero mobilization (mobilization was called hours after the Russians crossed the border). Zero prep work on the invasion routes. There was litterally nothing between the border and the gates of Kiev stopping the Russians. The Ukrainian Army was concentrated in the East against LNR and DNR with exposed (over-exposed in fact) LOCs to their rear. It was litterally 20K Ukrainian citizens grabbing whatever guns they had and ran forward straight into Russian armour. It was militia, unorganized militia at that, and not any organized defence that saved Kiev. The Ukrainians were litterally throwing canon fodder into the Russian advance to stop them.

          Putin couldn't predict that. We couldn't. How the hell do you predict a mob that wasn't there just hours before?
          Chimo

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Amled View Post
            Even a layman like me has at times come across the axiom that states something like:
            “…how generals often tend to focus on past battles, rather than on the one facing them!”
            A generalization I’m sure, but maybe with a grain of truth.
            So how do the people, who plan a battle; and who probably know the axiom much better then I, avoid its allure?
            It's not something I worry about. You make the best decision possible based on the best intel available and yes, that decision will be heavily influenced by my biases. I'm not going to second guess a decision that I need to execute right now. A bad decision is far, far worst than no decision. At the very least, you know you made a bad decision. Just always be prepared to correct your mistakes, ie always have a contigency to get the hell out of dodge.

            Chimo

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Monash View Post
              Best guess if Putin was prepared to impose significant economic hardship on Russian voters (e.g increase taxes & transfer funding away from public services. pensions and salaries etc) was at least five years, more likely closer to ten! Here's the post anyway. I Hadn't watched this poster before so I'm not sure how much spin/bias was in play.

              https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9SJHZAG4c2w
              Except he's ignoring Russian allies, Iran, North Korea, China, and India. All four have reserved stock they can send Russia today. China alone can replace half of Russian losses within the month. And the cost? Blueprints to Russian jet engines. There are deals to be made between these five countries. Russia sidestepped the NPT by jointly developing nuclear delivery vehicles with India and India is more than ready to trade tanks for more such ventures. KJU? Putin just making him an full fledge ally will have him gushing.

              Chimo

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post

                To be fair, there was zero ways for Putin to come to any other conclusion. Even we predicted Kiev would fall within 72 hours. What did Putin (and us) see? Zero mobilization (mobilization was called hours after the Russians crossed the border). Zero prep work on the invasion routes. There was litterally nothing between the border and the gates of Kiev stopping the Russians. The Ukrainian Army was concentrated in the East against LNR and DNR with exposed (over-exposed in fact) LOCs to their rear. It was litterally 20K Ukrainian citizens grabbing whatever guns they had and ran forward straight into Russian armour. It was militia, unorganized militia at that, and not any organized defence that saved Kiev. The Ukrainians were litterally throwing canon fodder into the Russian advance to stop them.

                Putin couldn't predict that. We couldn't. How the hell do you predict a mob that wasn't there just hours before?
                Given the comparative loss rates during Russia's initial 'drive for Kiev' I'm not sure cannon' fodder is exactly a fair description sir. At least on the Ukrainian side of the equation.
                If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

                Comment


                • I use the term cannon fodder to describe the mindset, that the men were prepared to die. Your own countrymen were on the receiving end of this mindset at Gallipoli. Mustafa Kemal Atatürk said to his men, "I don't want you to fight. I want you to die."

                  The Ukrainians who rushed forth expected to die. Their job is to kill as many Russians as they can before they do.
                  Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 23 Aug 22,, 01:33.
                  Chimo

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                    Except he's ignoring Russian allies, Iran, North Korea, China, and India. All four have reserved stock they can send Russia today. China alone can replace half of Russian losses within the month. And the cost? Blueprints to Russian jet engines. There are deals to be made between these five countries. Russia sidestepped the NPT by jointly developing nuclear delivery vehicles with India and India is more than ready to trade tanks for more such ventures. KJU? Putin just making him an full fledge ally will have him gushing.
                    China can. The question is if China will. From memory Russia only takes something like 2% of Chinese exports. You don't have to guess who its largest customers are. Which doesn't mean it won't happen of course, (especially if US Politicians keep traipsing over to Taiwan by the plane load for example) but barring wholesale provocation from the West as long as sanctions remain in place the risk to China's own economy is too large for it to be worth the risk. Especially as they already have enough economic problems to deal with at home as it is. And beyond that? Even if 'peace' is declared tomorrow and the sanctions are dropped China still wont sell top end equipment to Russia at a discount. Point being whether they build it themselves or buy it off someone else everything still costs. And its the cost that's the problem not the source of the equipment. Whatever he does if Putin wants his army back he's going to have to screw over his own citizens - big time.
                    If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

                    Comment


                    • Of course China will. After Tianamen Square, the USSR and then Russia were the only ones selling modern weapons to China. The J10 cannot happen without Russian design houses modifying the Israeli design to fit Chinese factories. And China is not above saying screw you to the West. China, to this day, refuses to cut off fuel and food shipments to North Korea despite Western sanctions and what has any of us done to China? Squat all.

                      There is a heavy weapons trade between Russia and China. Right now, it's Russia to China but we have zero legal language to stop it going the other way. There is zero legality we can do to stop it ... and we're not going to close every Wallmart in Canada and the US over Ukraine.

                      That the war is still going on is what stopping any Chinese sale but once round 2 is over, there is litterally nothing stopping the Chinese from making a trade. Oh I don't know, how about China sending tanks to Russian factories for upgrading and then decided to reduce their inventory?
                      Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 23 Aug 22,, 01:49.
                      Chimo

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                        Of course China will. After Tianamen Square, the USSR and then Russia were the only ones selling modern weapons to China. The J10 cannot happen without Russian design houses modifying the Israeli design to fit Chinese factories. And China is not above saying screw you to the West. China, to this day, refuses to cut off fuel and food shipments to North Korea despite Western sanctions and what has any of us done to China? Squat all.

                        There is a heavy weapons trade between Russia and China. Right now, it's Russia to China but we have zero legal language to stop it going the other way. There is zero legality we can do to stop it ... and we're not going to close every Wallmart in Canada and the US over Ukraine.

                        That the war is still going on is what stopping any Chinese sale but once round 2 is over, there is litterally nothing stopping the Chinese from making a trade. Oh I don't know, how about China sending tanks to Russian factories for upgrading and then decided to reduce their inventory?
                        It still costs though, there's no escaping that fact. Russia's problem isn't the will its the money and that's Putin's dilemma. Remember also that so far he's gone to great lengths to insulate Russian voters from the worst impacts of the war. Well now, given the equipment losses hes suffered etc he can't fully re-arm without crushing some other part of the Russian economy, undermining his own rule in the process. It's that or sell off the Russian Far East to the highest bidder! Something has to give. A big modern army simply cant be built off a small economy, not unless Putin 'vision' for Russia is for it to be next North Korea!
                        If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

                        Comment


                        • Of course there still costs but nothing that is insurmountable. China and Russia have their position reversed. China is nowhere close to North Korea today after getting all those SU-27s. China, like Russia back then, can offer very favourable terms. China bought the first batch of SU-27s through barter, not cash. China, really, really, really want those Russian jet engine blueprints.
                          Chimo

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                            Of course there still costs but nothing that is insurmountable. China and Russia have their position reversed. China is nowhere close to North Korea today after getting all those SU-27s. China, like Russia back then, can offer very favorable terms. China bought the first batch of SU-27s through barter, not cash. China, really, really, really want those Russian jet engine blueprints.
                            China built up its military over decades, buying what its economy could support at the time and (as always) at the expense of investment in other priorities. It also had enormous, underutilized productive capacity which meant its industrial base could expand rapidly and absorb the increase in military expenditure. Finally it had eager Western partners only to happy to sell it all technology and raw materials it needed to fuel that expansion. Russia doesn't have either the capacity to expand its economy or the for that matter the willing partners. Well at least not ones who won't screw Russia for all its worth anyway. Which BTW was not the case when it came to the western powers & China, at least not in the early days, now is another story.
                            If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

                            Comment


                            • The point here is that for Round 3, both sides would be tempted to repeat what worked for them this round, not thinking the other guy may try something different since clearly what they did the last time didn't worked
                              gotcha.

                              well, if nothing else I suspect wherever the border is at the end of round 2, it will be heavily mined and fortified. Can’t imagine Russia trying to bum rush Kyiv anymore either.

                              anyhow, that’s for the future. Ukraine has a war to win now.

                              There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by statquo View Post

                                Just to expand on this.. the thing I don't understand is Russia is next door to Ukraine, Putin has gone on and on about the historical ties and culture that the two hold, how could he miscalculate so badly that the majority of the population, including the government, wouldn't fold like a cheap tent and switch sides to the Russians? This isn't some country on the other side of the world that you hardly know. And I think its apparent he thought that. They hardly used artillery in the first phase of the occupation, perhaps in an attempt to preserve the infrastructure of the country because of the belief that the invasion 'should' be over in a matter of days/weeks. The Ukraine population mobilized to fight to the death. Even many Russian-speaking Ukrainians are on the Kiev side. How could you not recognize that before giving the order to invade?
                                You are thinking rationally. Shame on you. Now throw that out completely and think irrationally like many an authoritarian despot tends to do the longer they are in power. I'll bet sending the Army into Ukraine even surprised many in the Russian Government now that Putin has a small circle of confidants. If you had a Yeltsin in power this would never happen. However, this is Putin and he does have his dreams abut reconstituting the Russian Empire where neighbors trembled, feared, and respected Russia. Sound similar to someone's previous ides about a Third Reich? As time winds on these guys tend to overplay their hand which many can see except them. I expect Xi to overplay his hand one day.

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