2022-2024 Russo-Ukrainian War

[Red Team]

Anyone have any good estimates on Russian losses? Day 1 Ukraine claimed to have destroyed a brigades worth of mechanized vehicles and mauled an airborne brigade. Yesterday they claimed two IL76's. They haven't slowed Russia but if those claims are even close to accurate Russia is bleeding badly.

I've been going off of a mix of Ukrainian, UK, and US defense intelligence figures. UK and US casualty estimates are lower than the Ukrainian ones, putting Russian losses at the mid to high hundreds. Of course these estimates were made before last night's two IL-76 shoot downs, which was confirmed by US intelligence sources. With the loss of at least one company sized element (if not two) right there, it's plausible that Russian losses are at over 1000 according to Western sources.

Ukrainian defense ministry has given numbers in the 3000 (!) range, which is significantly higher and a bit hard to believe to be honest. Though given the Russian reluctance to give their own casualty estimates, perhaps this estimate might not be too far from truth?

[omon]

Am I the only one with a feeling, that I'm watching some lame theater? I mean, the biggest country in the world, with one of the strongest military, throws clueless kids to invade Ukraine, who did not even know they were going there, then we got Russian troops surrendering, (a Trojan maybe?) and in first day Russia lets Ukraine down half a dozen planes and helicopters., they take Chernobyl site, for what exactly? That is definitely not how you invade a country to remove its gvmnt, and culture, imo.

[Zad Fnark]

Possible Ukraine strike on Russian airbase.

Ukraine Strikes Back? Russian Airfield Near Border Set Ablaze (Updated) (thedrive.com)

[zraver]

I've been going off of a mix of Ukrainian, UK, and US defense intelligence figures. UK and US casualty estimates are lower than the Ukrainian ones, putting Russian losses at the mid to high hundreds. Of course these estimates were made before last night's two IL-76 shoot downs, which was confirmed by US intelligence sources. With the loss of at least one company sized element (if not two) right there, it's plausible that Russian losses are at over 1000 according to Western sources.

Ukrainian defense ministry has given numbers in the 3000 (!) range, which is significantly higher and a bit hard to believe to be honest. Though given the Russian reluctance to give their own casualty estimates, perhaps this estimate might not be too far from truth?

I tend to agree with you. Doubtless the UA and UAF have lost more and had less to begin with. However, Ukraine is not trying to portray itself as a military juggernaut. The loss of a motor-rifle brigades worth of kit, hundreds of personnel taken prisoner, at least partly if not mostly due to western ATGM's, the mauling of an airborne brigade and the IL76 shoot downs are some serious bloody noses.

I have a thesis that Russia's best ground troops were left in Kalinin Oblast and so the RA forces being used in Ukraine are less professional and more conscript based.

[Red Team]

I tend to agree with you. Doubtless the UA and UAF have lost more and had less to begin with. However, Ukraine is not trying to portray itself as a military juggernaut. The loss of a motor-rifle brigades worth of kit, hundreds of personnel taken prisoner, at least partly if not mostly due to western ATGM's, the mauling of an airborne brigade and the IL76 shoot downs are some serious bloody noses.

I have a thesis that Russia's best ground troops were left in Kalinin Oblast and so the RA forces being used in Ukraine are less professional and more conscript based.

Those bloody noses are going to lead to a lot of questions back home. Per various media outlets (both Western and Russian-based) and some contact with my friends in both Moscow and St. Petersburg, we are seeing levels of civil protest in the major cities from both regular Russian citizens and local politicians that we did not see during the 2016 Syrian conflict, 2014 Crimea affair, or the 2008 Georgian conflict. I would still say the majority supports whatever Putin wants to do, but there is real domestic opposition to this war that is without recent precedent.

IIRC there are elements of the 1st Guards Tank Army from Moscow in this fight, those guys are among the cream of the crop among the RGF no?

[zraver]

Those bloody noses are going to lead to a lot of questions back home. Per various media outlets (both Western and Russian-based) and some contact with my friends in both Moscow and St. Petersburg, we are seeing levels of civil protest in the major cities from both regular Russian citizens and local politicians that we did not see during the 2016 Syrian conflict, 2014 Crimea affair, or the 2008 Georgian conflict. I would still say the majority supports whatever Putin wants to do, but there is real domestic opposition to this war that is without recent precedent.

IIRC there are elements of the 1st Guards Tank Army from Moscow in this fight, those guys are among the cream of the crop among the RGF no?

A few good units does not an elite invasion force make. I think the bulk are conscripts.

[Red Team]

A few good units does not an elite invasion force make. I think the bulk are conscripts.

Oh absolutely I agree, and if I recall correctly these quality of conscripts make up the vast majority of the RGF. I know a couple of people that finished their mandatory service in the RGF fairly recently and the amount of waste, corruption, and morale issues that they shared with me was mindboggling.

Why do you think the RGF are holding off their best troops? Have they resigned themselves to throwing their expendable units at the Ukrainians, then bring out the big guns to finish them off?

[Ironduke]

Of course these estimates were made before last night's two IL-76 shoot downs, which was confirmed by US intelligence sources.

I wonder if they're putting the Stinger missiles we gave them to good use.

They're going to need as many Stingers and Javelins as they can get.

[Red Team]

TASS (Russian State News Agency) reported the following casualties, shortly before getting taken down (Disclaimer: could have been the work of a Ukrainian or other cyberwarfare group)

• 14 aircraft (13 attackers (SU-25 and other CAS) and 1 IL-76)
• 8 helicopters
• 102 tanks
• 536 armored cars and APCs
• 15 artillery pieces
• 1 Buk air defense system
• 3500 soldiers (dead, captured, wounded)

https://twitter.com/HannaLiubakova/s...2c69931318%2F0

JFC could you imagine if that was an American or NATO force taking those losses two days into a conflict?

[zraver]

Oh absolutely I agree, and if I recall correctly these quality of conscripts make up the vast majority of the RGF. I know a couple of people that finished their mandatory service in the RGF fairly recently and the amount of waste, corruption, and morale issues that they shared with me was mindboggling.

Why do you think the RGF are holding off their best troops? Have they resigned themselves to throwing their expendable units at the Ukrainians, then bring out the big guns to finish them off?

The strongest ground troops in NATO border the Kaliningrad Oblast. Poland and the US Army both have more combat power than Ukraine. The Kalinin grad Oblast is Russia's richest, most heavily defended Oblast outside of Moscow and St Oetersburg and her only warm water port as I don't remember Kaliningrad (Konigsberg) freezing.

[Ironduke]

There are disturbing reports about heavy gunfights in Kiev. Multiple videos with killed civilians and people in uniform. Probably dosens.

And the most terrible part... There are no Russian troops in Kiev yet!

25000 AKs giveaway was a brilliant idea.

F off with your bullshit.

[Ironduke]

The strongest ground troops in NATO border the Kaliningrad Oblast. Poland and the US Army both have more combat power than Ukraine. The Kalinin grad Oblast is Russia's richest, most heavily defended Oblast outside of Moscow and St Oetersburg and her only warm water port as I don't remember Kaliningrad (Konigsberg) freezing.

St. Petersburg itself is a warm water port. Russia's first with the conquest of the area from Sweden by Peter the Great.

[InExile]

Unfortunately, Rubio, who is ranking intelligence and has been sharing quite a bit on the Birdsite, has hinted that Putin may in fact be mentally unwell. So he might actually order an attack on a NATO country, which would probably quickly spiral into at least a limited nuclear war.

I...uhh...hope there is someone in Moscow sane enough and powerful enough to stop that trigger from being pulled.

This, perhaps the situation is more dangerous than people realize. Arms are flowing into Ukraine from NATO countries across the border. What if a convoy is attacked, perhaps on the wrong side of the border by mistake and there is a retaliation?

As Rubio says it is obvious that Putin has declined. At the least he more paranoid, isolated, consumed by his grievances. If he is mentally ill as well, that could be more dangerous for the world.

[kato]

St. Petersburg itself is a warm water port. Russia's first with the conquest of the area from Sweden by Peter the Great.

Warm is a relative term. In winter there's always light ice throughout the Baltic Sea all the way to the southwest. Every couple decades the Baltic Sea entirely freezes (last full freeze was in 1986, in 2011 over half of it was covered in ice).

Rosmorport currently operates 8 ocean and 6 coastal icebreakers in the Baltic for the four ports of the Leningrad and Kaliningrad oblasts.

[zraver]

St. Petersburg itself is a warm water port. Russia's first with the conquest of the area from Sweden by Peter the Great.

You might want to double check that. Russia doesn't keep ice breakers there for nothing. Google St Petersberg Russia sea ice.