2022-2024 Russo-Ukrainian War

[S2]

"...Before decentralization, top-level structures like army corps command were directly responsible for organizing and running counter-battery warfare. Brigade-level artillery command, in the meantime, was responsible for supporting the infantry on battlefields rather than hunting hostile artillery..."

Who can afford field armies these days with active manuever corps and divisions? If so, you'd have artillery staffs at division (DIVARTY) and Corps (Corps Arty H.Q.) controlling general support assets (F.A. GS rocket artillery batteries at DIVARTY) and corp-level F.A..tube and rocket battalions grouped in brigades under the Corps Arty Cdr...

...and linked into strategic, theatre, operational and tactical target acquisition resources...

...and well-exercised in the integration, coordination and employment of counter-battery, offensive E.W. and SEAD fires.

I assure a high likelihood that our own once-considerable skills there have atrophied dangerously. It is hard to identify, confirm, prioritize and allocate the correct mode of attack (direct engagement? Electronic suppression? Air strike?, etc.) and means/munitions employed.

And do it quickly and well in a continuous series of evolving targets. Maybe I'm wrong but the T.A. resources have never seemed better. If so, the onus is on resourcing, creating and developing staffs and organizations equal to some renewed realities.

[Officer of Engineers]

Rumour mill that KJU volunteered 100K North Koreans and the Iranians have become a drone supplier. Seriously doubt the part about 100K screaming November Kilos (zero prep work and denials from Moscow) but the Nov deadline of Russia running out of munitions just disappeared. And I don't think Putin needs to do much convincing for KJU to supply 100K November Kilos if he wanted.

[Monash]

Rumour mill that KJU volunteered 100K North Koreans and the Iranians have become a drone supplier. Seriously doubt the part about 100K screaming November Kilos (zero prep work and denials from Moscow) but the Nov deadline of Russia running out of munitions just disappeared. And I don't think Putin needs to do much convincing for KJU to supply 100K November Kilos if he wanted.

Even allowing for the fact that 20 year old, out of date Russian ration packs would be a step up nutrition for the average NK soldier I still have great grave doubts about Russia' ability to manage the logistics and supply issues incumbent in deploying 100,000 NK to the front lines and then sustaining them there in combat (albeit I doubt most would survive long once they got there). That's assuming of course were talking about mass deployment over a relatively short time frame. Drips and drabs would be more manageable but wouldn't really change the tactical situation on the ground.

On the lighter side of course I bet the comedy value of the radio traffic intercepted by the Ukrainians and the Allies would also go up as everyone listened in on Russian attempts to organize and co-ordinate that many NK soldiers in combat.

[statquo]

Ukraine hits Russian Wagner mercenary HQ in east

Ukrainian artillery has struck a headquarters of Russia's shadowy Wagner paramilitary group of mercenaries in eastern Ukraine, reports say.

The extent of damage to the military base of the group - which has been linked to war crimes - is not clear.

Luhansk's governor claims its secret location was revealed after a Russian journalist shared its address.

Last week, pro-Kremlin correspondent Sergei Sreda posted a photo on Telegram of the base with its apparent address.

The image, shared on the social media site but since deleted, shows five people in military uniform with a street sign in Popasna, Luhansk visible in the top left corner.

While the BBC has not been able to confirm the connection between the photo and the strike, Governor Serhiy Hayday wrote on Telegram that Ukrainian forces "hit an enemy HQ whose whereabouts were established thanks to a Russian journalist".

"This time, the successful strike destroyed the Wagner PMC HQ in Popasna yesterday," he said. He added that "the number of dead is being clarified".

The Wagner group was deployed to Crimea and Ukraine's Donbas region in 2014, when Kremlin-backed forces ousted Ukrainian troops from areas they later declared to be part of Russia.

Wagner units have also been sent to Syria, Libya, Mali and the Central African Republic.

The Kremlin does not acknowledge Wagner's existence, but Western intelligence links the group to Yevgeny Prigozhin - nicknamed "Putin's chef" because his catering business has long helped President Vladimir Putin and the armed forces.

Mr Prigozhin, like many other Russian officials, is subject to Western sanctions.

Wagner is known as a PMC - private military company. But they are state-sponsored mercenaries who act in the Kremlin's interests, Western experts say. They have been accused of repeated war crimes and human rights abuses.

The Ukrainian daily Ukrainska Pravda reports that a pro-Kremlin Russian journalist, Sergei Sreda, revealed the Wagner HQ in a Telegram post on 8 August. He posted photos of his visit to the HQ and a sign in one of them identified its address as Mironovskaya 12, Popasna.

The post was later removed, but copies are circulating on social media.

Popasna lies just south of Severodonetsk in Luhansk region, which Russian forces now entirely control, following months of bitter fighting and huge destruction.

Another pro-Kremlin war reporter, called Kotenok, wrote on Telegram: "A strike was carried out on one of the Wagner PMC locations in Popasna. Sources in Donbas confirm that. Probably 'Himars'. Ukrainian sources report the death of Prigozhin - we don't confirm that."

Ukrainian forces now have several of the US Himars (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System), which fire rockets capable of hitting Russian targets far behind the front lines.

Ukrainian MP Oleksiy Honcharenko wrote on Facebook: "There is no more Wagner HQ in Popasna. Thank you, Himars and the Armed Forces of Ukraine!"

Some Ukrainian reports implicate Wagner in the Olenivka prison fire on 29 July which killed dozens of Ukrainian prisoners-of-war. Russia blamed Ukrainian forces, saying they had shelled the prison, about 20km (12.5 miles) from Donetsk. The circumstances of the inferno remain unclear.

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[TopHatter]

Even allowing for the fact that 20 year old, out of date Russian ration packs would be a step up nutrition for the average NK soldier I still have great grave doubts about Russia' ability to manage the logistics and supply issues incumbent in deploying 100,000 NK to the front lines and then sustaining them there in combat (albeit I doubt most would survive long once they got there).

Yeah really...I mean, what the hell are you going to do with 100,000 parasite-riddled scarecrows?

[Amled]

Yeah really...I mean, what the hell are you going to do with 100,000 parasite-riddled scarecrows?

Also to be taken into consideration;
Covid!
Given the mixed signals that NK has given regarding Covid infections in the country.
But I'm sure that the Russian authorities would require a 100% valid Vaccination Passport,
from each and every North Korean "volunteer"!!!

[Officer of Engineers]

Even allowing for the fact that 20 year old, out of date Russian ration packs would be a step up nutrition for the average NK soldier I still have great grave doubts about Russia' ability to manage the logistics and supply issues incumbent in deploying 100,000 NK to the front lines and then sustaining them there in combat (albeit I doubt most would survive long once they got there). That's assuming of course were talking about mass deployment over a relatively short time frame. Drips and drabs would be more manageable but wouldn't really change the tactical situation on the ground.

My immediate concern is that Russia just got her munitions replenished. But be that as it may, 100K NK just stretched the Ukrainian lines beyond the breaking point.

Yeah really...I mean, what the hell are you going to do with 100,000 parasite-riddled scarecrows?

Just sucked up 100,000 rounds that the Ukrainians don't have.

[Officer of Engineers]

Also to be taken into consideration;
Covid!
Given the mixed signals that NK has given regarding Covid infections in the country.
But I'm sure that the Russian authorities would require a 100% valid Vaccination Passport,
from each and every North Korean "volunteer"!!!

Oh please, during WWI, we were crowding Spanish Flu inflected into trains with their non-infected battalions. We still manage an 80% battlefield casualty rate.

[astralis]

Nov deadline of Russia running out of munitions just disappeared

there was a Nov deadline for Russia running out of munitions? I know the Russians are running low on PGMs but they're not very good at targeting, so...eh.

only thing Iran is supposed to be supplying is the 300 UAVs, largely for artillery spotting.

of course if there's something that might just push the Israelis to contribute some more to Ukraine, that should be it.

Just sucked up 100,000 rounds that the Ukrainians don't have.

not gonna happen. it's like the 16,000 Syrians that the Russians supposedly recruited. or all the fresh BTGs that Kadyrov was going to raise and personally lead.

[Officer of Engineers]

there was a Nov deadline for Russia running out of munitions? I know the Russians are running low on PGMs but they're not very good at targeting, so...eh.

Ukrainian eval

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-...s-run-27099598

only thing Iran is supposed to be supplying is the 300 UAVs, largely for artillery spotting.

of course if there's something that might just push the Israelis to contribute some more to Ukraine, that should be it.

You're missing the point that the Ukrainian eval is now obsolete. The Russians will not stop their offensives in Nov.

And you know as well as I do that the Israelis is more than willing to sell to both sides.

tnot gonna happen. it's like the 16,000 Syrians that the Russians supposedly recruited. or all the fresh BTGs that Kadyrov was going to raise and personally lead.

Context is Joe asking what the can November Kilos do.

[TopHatter]

Ukrainian eval

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-...s-run-27099598

You're missing the point that the Ukrainian eval is now obsolete. The Russians will not stop their offensives in Nov.

And you know as well as I do that the Israelis is more than willing to sell to both sides.

Context is Joe asking what the can November Kilos do.

Well, to be fair, that particular Ukrainian eval was always in dispute:

But that exact prediction might not play out entirely, said Ronald Marks, a former special assistant to the assistant director of central intelligence for military affairs at the CIA, noting that Moscow still appears capable of buying and resupplying for the war effort.

“No one ever lost a war because they ran out of ammunition. If he can't build it, he'll buy it somewhere,” Marks said. “There’s a sufficient amount of oil money still.”

So yeah, I'm sure Putin and Kim would love to sign off on a massive purchase order of basic ordnance like small arms ammunition, artillery and tank shells etc. Ditto Iran and likely China as well (under the table, probably)

As far as those 100,000 North Korean are concerned, I don't think it's quite as simple as "Ok now go be a bullet sponge". I mean, first you have to get them from North Korea to eastern Ukraine and it's a 10,000+ km train ride from Pyongyang to Moscow.

You have to provide at least a bare minimum of food and very basic accommodations, even if it's a bare concrete floor and a bucket to shit in.

Can Russia's logistics system provide that at the drop of a hat?

[astralis]

You're missing the point that the Ukrainian eval is now obsolete. The Russians will not stop their offensives in Nov.

Too many caveats to that “eval”, which sounds to me like UKR propaganda to keep the Western weaponry flowing.

By late October everyone will be hunkering down, desperately trying to unscrew their logistics, re-org, train, and prepare for a spring offensive. The Ukrainians certainly can’t, and don’t, think the Russians are gonna just be on the defensive everywhere.

[Officer of Engineers]

Well, to be fair, that particular Ukrainian eval was always in dispute:

There is an assumption there. That no one will come to Moscow's aide. That assumption has been the basis of Ukrainian calculus. In short, gone.

As far as those 100,000 North Korean are concerned, I don't think it's quite as simple as "Ok now go be a bullet sponge". I mean, first you have to get them from North Korea to eastern Ukraine and it's a 10,000+ km train ride from Pyongyang to Moscow.

You have to provide at least a bare minimum of food and very basic accommodations, even if it's a bare concrete floor and a bucket to shit in.

Can Russia's logistics system provide that at the drop of a hat?

Why do you assume a drop of the hat? The Russians took a year to prep a 180K invasion force and sat on the border for over two months. Why would the Russians not take their time to do this properly?

Too many caveats to that “eval”, which sounds to me like UKR propaganda to keep the Western weaponry flowing.

By late October everyone will be hunkering down, desperately trying to unscrew their logistics, re-org, train, and prepare for a spring offensive. The Ukrainians certainly can’t, and don’t, think the Russians are gonna just be on the defensive everywhere.

You're missing the elephant in the room. We've, and most especially the Ukrainians, assumed the Russians are isolated. Not only is that not true but Putin's allies can help him far more than we can help the Ukrainians.

[Monash]

Well, to be fair, that particular Ukrainian eval was always in dispute:


So yeah, I'm sure Putin and Kim would love to sign off on a massive purchase order of basic ordnance like small arms ammunition, artillery and tank shells etc. Ditto Iran and likely China as well (under the table, probably)

As far as those 100,000 North Korean are concerned, I don't think it's quite as simple as "Ok now go be a bullet sponge". I mean, first you have to get them from North Korea to eastern Ukraine and it's a 10,000+ km train ride from Pyongyang to Moscow.

You have to provide at least a bare minimum of food and very basic accommodations, even if it's a bare concrete floor and a bucket to shit in.

Can Russia's logistics system provide that at the drop of a hat?

To the extent I have any real knowledge of the subject I always thought that evaluation tended too much towards wishful thinking. If it had just been confined to PGMS and high tech spare parts for complex weapon systems? Quite possibly. But I always had my doubts about basic munitions i.e. artillery shells & rifle rounds etc. They're not particularly 'high tech'. (OK maybe some fuses are but not the basic stuff.) I simply couldn't see any particular reason why Russia would not be able to produce enough to keep their campaign going even if it meant periodic interludes where they ceased offensive ops and used the downtime to restock and repair etc.

Unless of course there was a series of unfortunate accidents in certain Russian munition plants. These things do happen.

[Ironduke]

My theory, Ukraine has been given a limited number of ATACMs and it's not yet been publicized. For this and the Saky Airbase strike.

Dzhankoi is the rail junction from which both railroads from Crimea into southern Ukraine diverge. Maybe there will be greater logistical consequences for Russia than just another ammunition dump exploding, if rail infrastructure was impacted.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62560041

Ukraine war: Explosions rock Russian base in Ukraine's Crimea

A military base in Russian-occupied Crimea has been hit by a series of explosions, reportedly leaving at least two people hurt.

Russian officials said a fire triggered the blasts at an arms dump in the Dzhankoi area in northern Crimea.

A fire was also visible at an electricity substation.

What caused the blasts is unclear, but last week Russian warplanes were destroyed in an apparent Ukrainian attack on the Crimean coast.

Ukrainian presidential office adviser Mykhailo Podolyak described the incident as "demilitarisation in action", indicating that the explosions were not accidental.