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  • Originally posted by Goatboy View Post
    I disagree that there was a meaningful plan for Germany to dissolve into nothing.
    The plan was obviously to pulverize Germany into nothing. Mission Accomplished.

    Originally posted by Goatboy View Post
    It wasn't Germany that went extinct, it was the German Reich that went extinct. The people and nation would survive in a future form dictated by the allies (not Morganthau either). I'm not sure why Germany has to remain united for Germany to be considered "not extinct".
    That's the easy part. Germans had no say in their livelihood, government, or even their survival. As I said, they considered themselves lucky not to be deported to French Algiers nor Siberia. Self determination was not in the cards.

    Originally posted by Goatboy View Post
    South Koreans and their neighbors don't consider Korea to be extinct, just existing in a couple forms, the smaller one very strange. Maybe we're defining the word "extinction" differently.
    That's also easy to define - an army. An old saying. If you don't have an army, you will have someone else's army and not to your liking.

    Originally posted by Goatboy View Post
    Sure, he couldn't sack Kviv with 30k soldiers -- I followed all this from the beginning, your posts too -- once Ukraine refused to keel over. But he certainly tried to decapitate the government. Hostomel Airport was quite a ballsy move to try. Perhaps Putin thought once Kviv was knocked over, Zelensky arrested, he could deal with a rump "Lviv state" later. Putin's been building up financial reserves, tweaking the economy since 2014, to be able to withstand Western pressure in the event of another invasion of more of Ukraine. I'd argue Putin has been planning to invade Ukraine for the last 8 years. Sabotaging depots of 152mm artillery shells, and doing what it could to wreck Ukraine's rearmament all along. Therefore a Lviv invasion could wait, or maybe he wouldn't care? Maybe rump Lviv would be analogous to Georgia today, strategically impotent and defenseless. Anyway, assuming he never wanted to annex the Western 1/3 of Ukraine, I'm not sure what kind of Ukraine it would be without any sea coast and losing all it's largest cities (Kviv, Odessa, Kharkiv) with a somewhat smaller capital remaining, Lviv.
    Afghanistan was also landlocked and have even more fucked up ideas about government and they outbled 3 superpowers. If the Ukrainians are determined to fight, they will fight. Most likely insurgency but Russians will continue to die. Putin will have to station at least a million troops in Eastern Ukraine to even have a chance to subjucate the area. He doesn't have a million troops to station in the UKR.

    Originally posted by Goatboy View Post
    Maybe he's satisfied with chasing everybody west instead of Russifying them? Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk come to mind, as does Mariupol. I expect Dnipro will lose most of their residents, never to return, should Russia advance. No Finns left to fight in Finnish Karelia after 1944. No Germans left in Konigsburg to resist.
    Because both the Finns and the Germans had no more blood to outbleed Stalin. Stalin bled the Germans white. This is not the case in the UKR. The Ukranians have a hell of a lot more blood than Putin has will.

    Originally posted by Goatboy View Post
    Seems like that to me also. I don't see either side giving an inch. Ukraine wants blood after Bucha. Putin wants to win.
    They won't get it this round. Both sides don't have enough combat power to force the other into a Battle of Annhilation. The Russians tried when they gave up on Keiv but could not move fast enough.
    Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 19 Jul 22,, 07:02.
    Chimo

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    • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
      The plan was obviously to pulverize Germany into nothing. Mission Accomplished.
      Pulverize into complete submission isn't synonymous with pulverize into extinction.

      Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
      That's the easy part. Germans had no say in their livelihood, government, or even their survival. As I said, they considered themselves lucky not to be deported to French Algiers nor Siberia. Self determination was not in the cards.
      They had no say in their government, territorial extent, even certain aspects of social structure, but I don't think German civilians thought they'd be taken en-mass, all 70 million of them, to Siberia. 10s of millions of German women and their children were never deported to Siberia, nor would it be tolerated, even by Stalin. That's simply too vulgar. I don't think the Western allies would have tolerated such a thing either.


      Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
      Afghanistan was also landlocked and have even more fucked up ideas about government and they outbled 3 superpowers. If the Ukrainians are determined to fight, they will fight. Most likely insurgency but Russians will continue to die. Putin will have to station at least a million troops in Eastern Ukraine to even have a chance to subjucate the area. He doesn't have a million troops to station in the UKR.
      What if Putin's satisfied with the relative depopulation of Ukraine it controls? Seems when Russia conquers a contested city, they raze it to the ground as their only available military tactic, and then slowly advance. Will Severodonetsk and Mariupol be difficult to subjugate now that they're largely flattened and devoid of people?

      Germans fled to Western Germany, they didn't flee to France or Italy, or Denmark when the Soviets came calling. In contrast, Europe has opened their arms to millions of Ukrainians, even trying to settle them, get jobs for them etc.

      I think Putin likes this. He wants pro-Ukrainian Ukrainians to flee the country. Zelensky has been pleading for civilians to leave Bakhmut and Slovyansk. Heck, he's pleading for civilians to leave Kherson because of this upcoming "Ukrainian Southern offensive" (whatever that is). He knows the fire Russia's going to rain down. I fear "humanitarian" depopulation is part of Putin's game. The apparent abduction of 10s of 1000s of Ukrainian children (often newly orphans) to Russia suggests at least a relevant theme here.

      Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
      Because both the Finns and the Germans had no more blood to outbleed Stalin. Stalin bled the Germans white. This is not the case in the UKR. The Ukranians have a hell of a lot more blood than Putin has will.

      They won't get it this round. Both sides don't have enough combat power to force the other into a Battle of Annhilation. The Russians tried when they gave up on Keiv but could not move fast enough.
      That will be one hell of a battle. On a different note, I'm curious: Do you think Ukraine is biding their time for a counter-offensive, waiting for more Western gear, or are they just completely exhausted? Seems to me like it's the latter. I'm no expert though...
      Last edited by Goatboy; 19 Jul 22,, 08:46.

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      • Originally posted by Goatboy View Post
        Pulverize into complete submission isn't synonymous with pulverize into extinction.
        Small difference to the people being pulverized and people waiting to be pulverize. There's a reason why German boys, not just German men, were fighting to the death to get their mothers and grandmothers over to British and American lines and away from Russian lines. Think about that. They were dying just so that their families can surrender to the British and Americans

        Originally posted by Goatboy View Post
        They had no say in their government, territorial extent, even certain aspects of social structure, but I don't think German civilians thought they'd be taken en-mass, all 70 million of them, to Siberia. 10s of millions of German women and their children were never deported to Siberia, nor would it be tolerated, even by Stalin. That's simply too vulgar. I don't think the Western allies would have tolerated such a thing either.
        You're talking about a man who deported 80% of the Chechen population to Siberia; recruited over 34 million Russians/Ukrainians/Central Asians by threatening and at times executing soldier's families, started the Ukrainian Famine, and worked Factory workers to death. The only thing that saved the East Germans was that they made better factory slaves in East Germany (built up infrastructure for factories) than in digging for oil in Siberia. Not only could Stalin do it, he did it.

        And after Auschwitz, there was very little sympathy for Germans. They were deported from German enclaves in Poland.

        Originally posted by Goatboy View Post
        What if Putin's satisfied with the relative depopulation of Ukraine east of the Dnieper river? Seems when Russia conquers a contested city, they raze it to the ground as their only available tactic, and then slowly advance. Will Severodonetsk and Mariupol be difficult to subjugate now that they're largely flattened and devoid of people? Germans fled to Western Germany, they didn't flee to France or Italy, or Denmark when the Soviets came calling. In contrast, Europe has opened their arms to millions of Ukrainians, even trying to settle them, get jobs for them etc. I think Putin likes this. He wants pro-Ukrainian Ukrainians to flee the country. Zelensky has been pleading for civilians to leave Bakhmut and Slovyansk. Heck, he's pleading for civilians to leave Kherson because of this upcoming "Ukrainian Southern offensive" (whatever that is). He knows the fire Russia's going to rain down. I fear "humanitarian" depopulation is part of Putin's game.
        What Putin wants, what he can get, and what he will settle for are three differenet things. We know the first two pretty well but the Ukrainians have a very big say in the third.

        Originally posted by Goatboy View Post
        That will be one hell of a battle. On a different note, I'm curious: Do you think Ukraine is biding their time for a counter-offensive, waiting for more Western gear, or are they just completely exhausted? Seems to me like it's the latter. I'm no expert though...
        Neither side is even close to exhaustion but their LOCs are beyond the breaking point. The Ukrainians have exhausted their Soviet era stocks and are now in the midst of switching over to NATO stocks but we are nowhere close to replacing their stock to pre-war level. The Russians are on this limited frontage because that's all they could concentrate. They tried a bigger area but could not concentrate enough fire to break Ukrainian resistance.
        Chimo

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
          Small difference to the people being pulverized and people waiting to be pulverize. There's a reason why German boys, not just German men, were fighting to the death to get their mothers and grandmothers over to British and American lines and away from Russian lines. Think about that. They were dying just so that their families can surrender to the British and Americans
          My American grandmother (married to my grandfather, a German teacher) and my infant father were amongst those fleeing the Russians. Everyone was fleeing the Russians, well, if they could.

          Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
          You're talking about a man who deported 80% of the Chechen population to Siberia; recruited over 34 million Russians/Ukrainians/Central Asians by threatening and at times executing soldier's families, started the Ukrainian Famine, and worked Factory workers to death. The only thing that saved the East Germans was that they made better factory slaves in East Germany (built up infrastructure for factories) than in digging for oil in Siberia. Not only could Stalin do it, he did it.
          Chechens were Soviet. Deporting every non-Soviet German seems a bit far for the 20th century, regardless of who's in charge. There were American eyes watching, British eyes watching. There was Yalta, there were handshakes, there was lend-lease. Heck, Holodomor in Ukraine was fairly easily hidden. Depopulating Germany would never be hidden because German territory wasn't Soviet.

          Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
          And after Auschwitz, there was very little sympathy for Germans. They were deported from German enclaves in Poland.
          That doesn't mean the United States would stand by while the entire German population in the Soviet zone was deported like Konigsburg. The United States and the UK wouldn't tolerate 20 million more Germans than historically crowded into their respective German zones, from the now empty parts of Eastern Germany. They'd also have have little patience for those 20 million Germans (many Sudeten, Austrian, Hungarian-German) being carted off to Siberia. That's too vulgar. Millions of German woman and children in Siberian gulags? No chocolate bomber for Berlin anymore.



          Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
          Neither side is even close to exhaustion but their LOCs are beyond the breaking point. The Ukrainians have exhausted their Soviet era stocks and are now in the midst of switching over to NATO stocks but we are nowhere close to replacing their stock to pre-war level. The Russians are on this limited frontage because that's all they could concentrate. They tried a bigger area but could not concentrate enough fire to break Ukrainian resistance.
          Will 12 HIMARS and 12 M270s win the fight? Seems like every article I read is clapping themselves on the back at how effective they are, but if so why not more? Romania has 50 HIMARS. Maybe Russia is just adapting again like they did after their failed knockout blow. Even if Ukraine can hold Russia at bay in a defensive line, how the heck are they going to cross rivers, like re-take Kherson oblast?
          Last edited by Goatboy; 19 Jul 22,, 09:25.

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          • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
            There's a reason why German boys, not just German men, were fighting to the death to get their mothers and grandmothers over to British and American lines and away from Russian lines. Think about that. They were dying just so that their families can surrender to the British and Americans
            Were they? Would be news to me.

            The children who did fight in '45 were the nazi scum that had been indoctrinated in the Hitler Youth their entire life. Period. And they didn't fight on the Eastern Front only, i personally know one of those boys who at 16 as a Flakhelfer picked up his rifle against the Americans and couldn't be prevented from doing so by more reasonable adults.

            As for "getting to the British and American" lines, people simply fled from the fighting. And a bunch of them drowned like rats in the Baltic Sea while doing so, probably more than did so "defending" refugee trecks. Women, children, elderly. Not the boys and men.

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            • Originally posted by Chunder View Post
              ^^ what is the fortitude of the 'west' to its 'principles' if the U.S. checks out?
              Ukraine will get very lonely. I'd expect the Poles and the Baltics to hang in there. And it could also force Sweden & Finland to tell NATO GFY.
              “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
              Mark Twain

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Goatboy View Post
                Chechens were Soviet. Deporting every non-Soviet German seems a bit far for the 20th century, regardless of who's in charge. There were American eyes watching, British eyes watching. There was Yalta, there were handshakes, there was lend-lease. Heck, Holodomor in Ukraine was fairly easily hidden. Depopulating Germany would never be hidden because German territory wasn't Soviet.
                So, we've established that Stalin is more than capable of such an act.

                Originally posted by Goatboy View Post
                That doesn't mean the United States would stand by while the entire German population in the Soviet zone was deported like Konigsburg. The United States and the UK wouldn't tolerate 20 million more Germans than historically crowded into their respective German zones, from the now empty parts of Eastern Germany. They'd also have have little patience for those 20 million Germans (many Sudeten, Austrian, Hungarian-German) being carted off to Siberia. That's too vulgar. Millions of German woman and children in Siberian gulags? No chocolate bomber for Berlin anymore.
                What were the Western allies going to do? Start WWIII? They did squat all in China and only got involved in Korea when it became apparent that Stalin was not going to start WWIII over Korea.

                Originally posted by Goatboy View Post
                Will 12 HIMARS and 12 M270s win the fight? Seems like every article I read is clapping themselves on the back at how effective they are, but if so why not more? Romania has 50 HIMARS. Maybe Russia is just adapting again like they did after their failed knockout blow. Even if Ukraine can hold Russia at bay in a defensive line, how the heck are they going to cross rivers, like re-take Kherson oblast?
                Those systems will hurt the Russians but won't kill them. I'm being a cynic right now but it sure looks like we will fight the Russians down to the last Ukrainian.


                Originally posted by kato View Post
                Were they? Would be news to me.
                Soviet war attrocities was not news and was well publicized and encouraged by Stalin.

                Originally posted by kato View Post
                The children who did fight in '45 were the nazi scum that had been indoctrinated in the Hitler Youth their entire life. Period. And they didn't fight on the Eastern Front only, i personally know one of those boys who at 16 as a Flakhelfer picked up his rifle against the Americans and couldn't be prevented from doing so by more reasonable adults.
                Of course they were scum but that doesn't change the fact that using boys as soldiers in a what was once an effective army was a big sign of desperation

                Originally posted by kato View Post
                As for "getting to the British and American" lines, people simply fled from the fighting. And a bunch of them drowned like rats in the Baltic Sea while doing so, probably more than did so "defending" refugee trecks. Women, children, elderly. Not the boys and men.
                Do note that safety was British and American lines and not where there was no shooting.

                Chimo

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                • Guys let's try to keep things on topic. With all the interlaced comments, I can't prune things off very well to a new thread.
                  “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

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                  • Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
                    Guys let's try to keep things on topic. With all the interlaced comments, I can't prune things off very well to a new thread.
                    Concur. If you want to keep talking this we can always move that specific subject grouping to the World War 2 thread.
                    “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
                    Mark Twain

                    Comment


                    • Ukraine war: Zelensky widens purge of security services

                      President Volodymyr Zelensky has continued his purge of Ukraine's security service (SBU) by dismissing the organisation's deputy director.

                      Volodymyr Horbenko is the latest official to lose his job after Mr Zelensky said bosses failed to root out pro-Russian elements in the agency.

                      Regional chiefs in several other cities were also dismissed, Mr Zelensky said.

                      It comes as MPs voted to dismiss SBU chief Ivan Bakanov and Prosecutor General Iryna Venediktova.

                      On Monday, an adviser to Mr Zelensky suggested that the pair had merely been suspended pending an investigation, after the president initially appeared to sack them in a late-night address.

                      But on Tuesday the Ukrainian leader laid down a motion of no-confidence in the pair before parliament, which was approved by an overwhelming majority of MPs.

                      There have been reports for several weeks that Mr Zelensky wanted to replace Mr Bakanov after coming to blame him for failures in stopping the Russian advance in February.

                      Neither of the top officials, both of whom Mr Zelensky personally appointed, are accused of betraying their country. But they ran agencies where Russian interference appears to have impacted Ukraine's ability to hold territory in the opening days of the war.

                      Speaking after the vote, the leader of Mr Zelensky's Servant of the People party, David Arakhamia, said new information had recently come to light, and the purge of the SBU would continue in the coming days.

                      "There will be many 'cleanses', because over the years many residents of the Russian special services have secretly entrenched themselves within the walls of the SBU, unfortunately," Mr Arakhamia said, adding: "They got access to materials that they didn't have before."

                      On Sunday, Mr Zelensky said over 60 former SBU and prosecutor's office employees were now working against Ukraine in Russian-occupied areas.

                      Mr Bakanov's deputy, Vasyl Malyuk, was announced as the acting head of the SBU in a decree posted to the presidential website on Thursday.

                      -------------------------------------------------------------------

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                      • Looks like the Ukrainians have damaged, but not destroyed, the Antonovsky Bridge that crosses the Dnipro River at Kherson with HIMARS.

                        They put at least one hole in it more than big enough for a man to fall through. Could they Swiss-cheese it to the point to render it unusable? And keep it unusable by hitting the repair crews with HIMARS when/if they were to come to try to repair it?

                        Last edited by Ironduke; 20 Jul 22,, 02:16.
                        "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

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                        • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                          Those systems will hurt the Russians but won't kill them. I'm being a cynic right now but it sure looks like we will fight the Russians down to the last Ukrainian.
                          I'm a cynic too, and I think you're a realist. I love to think Ukraine is fighting the good fight, but I think we might be giving Ukraine just enough to "go out in a blaze of glory". And "going out in a blaze of glory" includes accepting any situation where Russia maintains control over territory it's conquered since Feb.

                          I was depressed in Feb. Then I was cautiously adamant that Ukraine may prevail with a bit of help in the late Spring, then resigned at Russian artillery and Russian electronic warfare shutting the UA down in the early summer. Now HIMARS are the "game changer" in turning the tide? Everything is yo-yo-ing around, and even the Pentagon is releasing reports that appear conflicting with reality. It's all hard to digest.

                          ....and I can't help thinking about Taiwan.

                          Comment


                          • From CNN...



                            US will send 4 more high mobility artillery rocket systems to Ukraine


                            From Ellie Kaufman and Barbara Starr

                            The United States will send four more high mobility artillery rocket systems (HIMARS) to Ukraine in the next package of security assistance, which will be officially announced later this week, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said Wednesday.

                            “Later this week, we’ll roll out our next presidential drawdown package of weapons, ammunition and equipment for Ukraine. It will be our 16th drawdown of equipment from DoD inventory since August 2021. It will include four more HIMARS, advanced rocket systems, which the Ukrainians have been using so effectively and which have made such a difference on the battlefield,” Austin said during opening remarks ahead of the fourth meeting of the Ukraine Contact Group held virtually Wednesday.

                            The next security assistance package will also include “more rounds of MLRS and artillery ammunition,” Austin said in his remarks at the Pentagon.

                            He reflected on how the Ukraine Contact Group — made up of more than 40 participating countries — has sent security assistance to Ukraine since their in-person meeting last month in Brussels, Belgium, on June 15, saying the US has “committed more than $2.6 billion dollars in security assistance to Ukraine."

                            “More than 30 countries have now sent lethal military assistance to Ukraine in its hour of crisis, and we continue to make important headway,” he added.

                            So 4 is not a massive number nor a game changer. What could be what we are running up against is availability...the US Army just let a contract to Lockheed Martin to build more HIMARS for the Marine Corps. (Where weapon systems are matches between the Army & USMC the Army handles the procurement as the HIMARS program is run out of a US Army program manager's office). This production run keeps a line going which also just recently finished deploying it's 500th system for Rumanian Army.

                            Not sure if this a diversion of US targeted systems or a US unit is giving up their equipment. They may also could be what was pulled out of storage...likely from the National Guard...and that's what can be grabbed at this time.

                            I don't think these are going to be the end of HIMARS issued to the Ukrainians...not to mention it makes folks who build them in Camden, Arkansas, will be happy for the jobs.
                            “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
                            Mark Twain

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                            • What about rounds? Any idea on how many were sent?

                              Comment


                              • no need to publish that information; don't want the Russians counting the number of bullets in the barrel.

                                There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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