2022-2024 Russo-Ukrainian War

[TopHatter]

Russia ‘struggling’ to give troops in Ukraine breaks from combat: UK intelligence
The United Kingdom’s Defense Ministry said that Russia is “struggling” to give its military forces breaks as its months-long conflict with neighboring Ukraine continues to rage on.

In a Twitter thread on Monday, the U.K. Defense Ministry noted complaints from wives of Russian military members, saying a video published showed the wives pleading to a local politician to have their husbands return to the country, citing that one Russian military unit is already “mentally and physically exhausted.”

“One woman claimed that personnel of EMD’s 5th Separate Guards Tank Brigade are ‘mentally and physically exhausted’ because they have been on active combat duty since the launch of the ‘special military operation’ on 24 February 2022,” the ministry said in a tweet.

The ministry also said that a “lack of scheduled breaks,” has caused damage and created personnel issues among Russian military units.

“The lack of scheduled breaks from intense combat conditions is highly likely one of the most damaging of the many personnel issues the Russian MoD is struggling to rectify amongst the deployed force,” the ministry said.

The ministry also noted in its thread that the Russian forces continue to focus airstrikes in the northern Donbas region, noting that Ukrainian forces also continue to attack Russian defensive forces in the Kherson region, even though they didn’t make any territorial gain.

Russian forces have focused their attention on the eastern part of Ukraine, looking to gain full control of the Donbas and Donetsk regions after already capturing the city of Lysychansk, with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky saying in a statement on Sunday that Russian forces conducted airstrikes in the residential areas of the Donbas region.

Ukraine’s defense minister Oleksii Reznikov told The Wall Street Journal on Sunday that the deployment of U.S.-made long-range rocket systems has been a “game-changer” in their battle against Russia.

The Pentagon unveiled an $820 million weapons package earlier this month for the embattled country, which included advanced air defense systems as well.
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Hm. Damn shame.

[Parihaka]

I've seen some tankies on line saying the HIMARS rockets are a) being intercepted by S-300/400 or b) are hitting grain silos.

I've seen ASP explosions and that's no grain we see exploding.

Oh come on Buck, these are obviously granaries ;)
Rob Lee on Twitter: "There was a big explosion in Kherson Oblast. https://t.co/weTiiCcOjo https://t.co/BQyT4Sqwod" / Twitter

[astralis]

I think the problem is that they are fighting against their own systems.

If you jam them you also jam your own systems cause they are both the same.

How well could the US shut down an enemy air defense system if they were using US goods? Could we shut their Patriot capabilities down without degrading ours?

Was listening to a Ukraine drone operator. He mentioned that they could only fly when the Russians were flying drones. Because the Russians had to shut their EW jammers down to do ops.

Maybe the Russians are facing the same dilemma with the air defense systems

that and Russian ISR clearly sucks.

Russian Air Force tried to do a shock and awe campaign at the very beginning of the war and didn't hit much...and that was with time and preparation and some element of surprise.

now they're trying to do dynamic targeting and that is far more difficult.

[Albany Rifles]

Mick Ryan and his comments regarding the impact HIMARS is...and is not...having in Ukraine.

A thread by Mick Ryan, AM


Over the past few days, the Twittersphere has been expounding on the impact that several #HIMARS rocket artillery systems are having in #Ukraine. And they are awesome! But some perspective is required before expectations for their impact get too overblown. 1/17



HIMARS is a lighter, more deployable version of an older tracked launcher that used the same rockets. And because it is mobile, it can shoot and move quickly, making it a very survivable platform in an era of short times between detection and destruction.



HIMARS, because of its range and accuracy, is a weapon that is designed to attack targets deep in the enemy’s rear. It is used to destroy critical communications nodes, command posts, airfields, and important logistics facilities. It appears that more than a dozen major Russian supply depots, primarily used to store artillery ammunition, have been attacked by the long range #HIMARS rockets in the past few days. The Ukrainians, shifting away from the attritional fight they have been drawn into in the Donbas, are re-adopting the asymmetric conventional tactics they used so successfully early in the war. (smh.com.au/world/europe/w…) They are attacking the Russian weak points once again – its railway centric logistics, its over talkative battlefield generals, and its over reliance on massed artillery to advance in the east. One key target is command and control nodes, or in other words, command posts with senior Russian commanders. The ability to rapidly target these, once detected, and use the accuracy of the #HIMARS rockets to inflict maximum destruction is vital. Additionally, many Russian supply depots, located close to railways, are also proximate to civilian towns. The greater accuracy of the #HIMARS permits the Ukrainians to minimise collateral damage in their long-range attacks on Russian targets. Beyond the physical, there is a psychological impact. Now, a much greater proportion of the invading Russian force falls within the radius that can be attacked. They will have seen its impact, on social media and in person. And, as @General_Ben has noted, being an ammunition handler in a logistic depot is probably now the least desirable job in the Russian Army. These psychological impacts have a cost on the effectiveness of a military organization.



So, #HIMARS is changing the character of the fight in Ukraine. It is allowing the Ukrainians to target the Russians at greater distance and in areas that have been denied to them because of Russian air defence systems. (kyivindependent.com/national/1234) And it has permitted the Ukrainians to fight how they want to fight, and not in the heavy attritional way preferred by the Russians. The #Russians will have #HIMARS at the top of their targeting lists for their long-range missiles and air force.



Despite this, we must not cast the #HIMARS as the wonder weapon that will change the tide of the war. There has been a tendency since the first Industrial Revolution to look for the single technological wonder that will win wars. This is a mirage. HIMARS is having an important impact and will continue to do so, but it alone will not win this war. While it has provided the Ukrainian Armed Forces with a new ‘Long Hand’ to attack the Russian invaders, there is no such thing as a silver bullet solution in war.



Importantly, its impact does not abrogate the responsibility of western nations to continue providing the full range of weapons, munitions, intelligence, training and other forms of support required by #Ukraine. Military forces are complex entities that need many different capabilities layered in function, range, time & impact, integrated by humans. #HIMARS is just one layer – albeit a vital one – in the overall national and military capacity that #Ukraine needs to win this war. End



Thank you to the following, whose images were used in this thread: @IAPonomarenko @DefenceU @General_Ben @WarMonitor3 @RALee85

[astralis]

yup, it's a big deal but can't turn it into a wunderwaffe.

current Twitter-verse is overplaying the recent drop in Russian fires -- no doubt the HIMARS are having a significant effect but the Russians are clearly gearing up for one more big punch at Siversk.

[Albany Rifles]

yup, it's a big deal but can't turn it into a wunderwaffe.

current Twitter-verse is overplaying the recent drop in Russian fires -- no doubt the HIMARS are having a significant effect but the Russians are clearly gearing up for one more big punch at Siversk.

Completely concur

[Officer of Engineers]

reports coming in that Ukraine is taking our good Colonel's advice and wiping out whole command structures.

Would have liked to see them co-ordinate with a general offensive instead of piecemeal action. Yes, the hurts the Russians but the Ukrainians are letting them recover, allowing the Russians time to transfer command and to replace the lost stock. The Ukrainians should have attacked their lines when there was C3 confusion and bingo ammo.

[astralis]

according to them, that will start next month...we'll see.

pretty impressive what they've been able to do with only 8 platforms, and without ATACMS.

[Officer of Engineers]

according to them, that will start next month...we'll see.

pretty impressive what they've been able to do with only 8 platforms, and without ATACMS.

Amateurs. Should have waited. This told the Russians what the Ukrainians can do without having a noticeable effect on Russian operations. The Russians will now counter.

[Officer of Engineers]

Wonder would the Russians pull a von Manstein. Let the Ukrainians bypass strong points and then soldify the lines behind them, cutting Ukrainian LOCs. Does not need maneuver. All that is needed is hold your fire until the main attack is well beyond to their desired destination.

[astralis]

Amateurs. Should have waited. This told the Russians what the Ukrainians can do without having a noticeable effect on Russian operations. The Russians will now counter.

given that the US was actively considering sending HIMARS since March, that the Russian diplomats were threatening the US over this since April, that the US announced they were sending HIMARS at the end of May, and that Ukraine has been using them since mid/late-June, and -very- actively using them in the last two weeks, to include 14 ammo dumps blown to hell....

that the military leadership would be clumping up in HQs within HIMARS range in mid-July tells me that they aren't exactly what I call very flexible.

in theory I agree that yeah, the Ukrainians could have achieved more concrete operational surprise had they waited til their counteroffensive to roll this out. but, politically, they had to demonstrate to the Americans that they could be trusted to use HIMARS both effectively and without targeting Russian soil prior to more HIMARS getting sent. that's why they're getting sent in batches.

so is the operational surprise worth not having an additional 4 HIMARS by end of July? maybe...maybe not.

as it is, the HIMARS probably played a key role in slowing down the Russian offensive in Donbas, and if nothing else will decrease combat efficiency in the south when the long-promised offensive gets going.

Wonder would the Russians pull a von Manstein. Let the Ukrainians bypass strong points and then soldify the lines behind them, cutting Ukrainian LOCs. Does not need maneuver. All that is needed is hold your fire until the main attack is well beyond to their desired destination.

hard to do when US/NATO ISR is breathing down Russian necks. I also don't see the Russians having that much unit discipline and cohesion. their best troops are all at Donbas right now.

[TopHatter]

Nice video by Binkov's Battlegrounds on Why is Russian Air Force performance in Ukraine so abysmal?

[Ironduke]

Granted. But the point is we don't 'see' anything in the way of body bags etc. Based on the more reputable sources I've seen I could easily accept figures around the 20,000 KIA mark and still see Russia having the manpower/capacity to back-fill BTG's as required, especially if, as is possible the traditional 3:1 ration of casualties to KIA has been reduced in this war thanks to the prevalence body armor and better medical support. (I mean its not like we've had a lot of recent wars on this scale to do comparisons with.)

But even at a lower KIA rate there's still almost zero insight into Russian casualty figures. And I can't only see this being plausible on a nation wide basis long term. Somethings got to give.

Aside from the fact that all BTGs remained in the field, we certainly did not see 30,000 body bags going back to Russia for burial and we also certainly did not see enough mass graves that would account for 30,000 bodies. The Ukrainians certainly did not collect 30,000 Russian bodies or even 10,000 Russian bodies.

However, no matter whose source you want to cite, the one indisputable fact is that the Russian BTGs facing the Ukrainians have neither diminished in number nor has become combat ineffective.

Would not surprise me if a decent-sized chunk of the numbers being circulated for Russian KIA are from DPR/LPR and other "auxiliary" forces (Chechens, Wagner, etc.). Thus not from BTGs or the Russian Army. According to even sources on the Russian side (milbloggers etc.), DPR/LPR conscripts are being used like cannon fodder, and dying in large numbers.

As of 30 Jun, the official site for the DPR Ombudsman claims 2247 KIA and 9453 WIA for DPR forces so far this year. A pro-Kremlin newspaper briefly published a figure of 13414 Russian "irretrievable losses" on Apr 22 (57 days into the war, 84 days ago), which included 7000 "missing". The term "irretrievable losses" is generally understood to include KIA, missing, and POW.

I don't think figures of 20k Russian/separatist KIA is inaccurate.

Perun put up a pretty good video on Russian manpower a month ago. Among other things he says the Russians are scraping the barrel to keep BTG numbers up, for example, raiding training battalions back in Russia to fill out losses in BTGs.

Of course, Russian casualty figures and military deaths are considered a state secret, even in peacetime. Any sort of earnest reporting and attempts to document these things in Russia is illegal.

[astralis]

Amateurs. Should have waited. This told the Russians what the Ukrainians can do without having a noticeable effect on Russian operations. The Russians will now counter.

actually, thinking through this still further -- this reminds me of our discussion earlier about when the Ukrainians should do their counterattack. I argued they had to do it sooner rather than later for political purposes, and that still holds.

so yeah, you're right -- this upcoming offensive will be fought by tactical amateurs (TDF) with an operationally amateur force (first time the Ukrainians will do significant combined arms offensive at scale). probably a good thing they're not trying to utilize a platform for the first time as well, then.

I fully expect the promised counteroffensive to be smaller than what most people imagine. it'll be quick but relatively limited in scope -- a "training wheels" offensive to simplify C2 concerns, against an enemy which still has nominal air superiority.

Ukraine has been husbanding this saber force for some time and they will likely pick a relatively low-risk/low-gain operational design to avoid disaster.

[Officer of Engineers]

hard to do when US/NATO ISR is breathing down Russian necks. I also don't see the Russians having that much unit discipline and cohesion. their best troops are all at Donbas right now.

That's just it. It doesn't need unit discipline and cohesion. All it takes is to hold your fire. It's playing posseum. All stronger forces to pass you and then kill the fixing forces when when the strong force hits your reserves. It's another version of the feint retreat. It does, however, need a good general who knows when to stop playing posseum.

But yeah, didn't see any of those yet either.