2022-2024 Russo-Ukrainian War

[Red Team]

https://www.ibtimes.com/russia-threa...ctions-3564746

These statements from Russian officials get more and more absurd by the day.

[Monash]

https://www.ibtimes.com/russia-threa...ctions-3564746

These statements from Russian officials get more and more absurd by the day.

Funny, as I recall the official Kremlin line is that western sanctions have been and are likely to remain largely ineffective, causing little more than inconvenience to Russia. Yet in that article here's Oleg Matveychev being quoted as demanding the return of Alaska to Russia in compensation for the damage being caused by the sanctions! Someone's going off message. It would appear the sanctions ARE starting to bite.

[Bigfella]

https://www.ibtimes.com/russia-threa...ctions-3564746

These statements from Russian officials get more and more absurd by the day.

I wonder if that will be before or after they do whatever it is they plan to do to Finland & Sweden for joining NATO. Watching Russia try to take back Alaska would have sighificant comedy value, though not for the Russian military personnel involved.

[Bigfella]

More information on the infamous 331st Guards Airborne unit. There are a few bits of interest in this, particularly the assessment at the end that the casualty rate in the unit is about 50%. Personally I'd prefer 100%, but 50 is a good start. The way in which the Russian state systematically lies to the families of those at war is a disgrace. Yes, sometimes OPSEC comes into play, and yes, sometimes western nations lie to familes, but the scale of this is in a different realm.

[Albany Rifles]

Thoughts on LSCO (Large Scale Combat Operations) seen through a Ukrainian backdrop and implications to the U.S.Army-

LSCO-What The Army Should Be Learning About Large Scale Combat Operations From The Ukraine War-Modern War Institute

Great article. Read it over the weekend.

[Officer of Engineers]

More information on the infamous 331st Guards Airborne unit. There are a few bits of interest in this, particularly the assessment at the end that the casualty rate in the unit is about 50%. Personally I'd prefer 100%, but 50 is a good start. The way in which the Russian state systematically lies to the families of those at war is a disgrace. Yes, sometimes OPSEC comes into play, and yes, sometimes western nations lie to familes, but the scale of this is in a different realm.

I take that with a trainload of salt. The 80 figure is believable. The 500 KIA/WIA/MIA is not. The regt would be combat ineffective at even 350 and would be withdrawn. The fact that they're still in the field states that the big figure is far from the truth.

I stopped believing press claims about Russian casualties when it didn't make sense that the Russians were still able to make gains with combat ineffective battalions.

[astralis]

the 331st mentioned here took their heaviest casualties back in March. they were indeed withdrawn, rested/refitted in Belarus prior to being committed again in two separate engagements in April/May.

the BBC report says verified 62 KIA and are assuming 3:1 wounded with further missing.

given this stretch of time, they could repeatedly sub people in without disastrous effects, including the recovered wounded. yeah, some loss in unit cohesion but it's not as if they lost 50% of the men in one battle.

we're in the middle of another Russian operational pause, this time announced by Putin himself.

[Monash]

Not seeing a lot of updates of late (from reliable sources) on Russian personnel and equipment losses. I presume this is because this phase of the war is dominated by long range artillery duels and a slow Russian advance often by dismounted troops or otherwise just conscripts and this is hindering data collection?

[TopHatter]

Not seeing a lot of updates of late (from reliable sources) on Russian personnel and equipment losses. I presume this is because the this phase of the war is dominated by long range artillery duels and a slow Russian advance (often by dismounted) troops or just conscripts and this is hindering data collection?

I think that's about right. Russian is no longer retreating/withdrawing, so photographic evidence of Russian losses isn't as readily available.

The entire character of the war has changed and the reporting on it has likewise changed.

[Officer of Engineers]

given this stretch of time, they could repeatedly sub people in without disastrous effects, including the recovered wounded. yeah, some loss in unit cohesion but it's not as if they lost 50% of the men in one battle.

Russian Jump Course is 6-8 weeks long. You're not going to pump our half a regt in this time.

[astralis]

Probably shuffling in personnel from other shattered units, activating equivalent of rear-d or covert mobilization of reservists.

I really doubt they’re looking for jump qualified personnel anymore, at least in the short term. Still better than the separatist brigades which are basically the equivalent of the old penal battalions.

[Officer of Engineers]

Probably shuffling in personnel from other shattered units, activating equivalent of rear-d or covert mobilization of reservists.

From where? If we believe the propaganda (worst numbers I've heard is 30,000 KIA and 100,000 WIA - immediately dismissive), then other units are just as worst off and have nothing to spare and yet, the Russians have not taken written off any single battalion. If amalgation has occurred than at least 20 BTGs should have disappeared. None have.

[Monash]

One thing that should be happening but I'm not seeing much media traffic about is Russia notifying families of KIA's and casualties. I get the fact the Kremlin wants to shut down news of casualty figures but how long can Moscow seriously expect to keep families in the dark about the loss of loved ones? What, parents aren't going to notice when they suddenly stop hearing from their son for weeks on end and can't get a response to welfare checks from his unit?

Yes there was some coverage of the issue the issue in the early days of the war but I can't recall seeing anything for a couple of months now. Assuming the KIA figures are approaching the 20,000 mark (or have surpassed that) I can't see anyway to really suppress the issue, let alone put some kind of domestic 'spin' on the problem. Or are they really that desperate they've literally just kicked the can down the road?

[Officer of Engineers]

Nothing unusual. We saw nothing of the kind during the Soviet-Afghan War and the Chechen Wars.

[Monash]

Nothing unusual. We saw nothing of the kind during the Soviet-Afghan War and the Chechen Wars.

Not perhaps quite the same. Afghanistan saw the Soviets suffer lots of KIA but that over the space of a decade. So the annul loss rate was 'manageable' I suppose in terms of the total number of troops serving at any one time. And as I recall from Chechnya there were public outcries from the mothers of conscripts etc sent to that war, which is one of the main reasons Putin hasn't sent conscripts (well Russian ones anyway) into the fight in mass. So this time around we've had major fighting for almost 5 months now with, unless all the analysis's are wrong tens of thousands of Russian casualties! And we hear zip?

I guess what I'm say is that the analyst part of me sees an anomaly. Or if your prefer an itch I can't scratch.