2022-2024 Russo-Ukrainian War

[tbm3fan]

God, I wish people would understand. As much as people wish the Ukrainians would start bleeding the Russians drip by drip to intensify anti-war emotions back in Russia, the Ukrainians are going to bleed more. Much, much, muh more. I gave a ratio of a 150 to 1 in Taliban Afghanistan against the US. The ratio was far, far worst under Soviet Afghanistan. 2 million Afghans died for 9000 Soviet combat deaths.

As much as you want to see a Russian draped coffin, I will guarrantee you that there will be over 100 Ukrainian funerals for that one coffin. It is NOT a good exchange ratio.

First, the Taliban kept on fighting nonetheless. The Japanese did the same thing in the Pacific. Not saying the Ukrainians are the same as I don't have an intimate knowledge of their psychology.

Second, are the Ukrainians just supposed to lie down and accept their fate? Or should they resist anyway they can? What would you do in the same situation? Accept or resist? Curious about what you think they should do and how you would react if you were Ukrainian tomorrow instead of Canadian?

[Officer of Engineers]

The Taliban kept fighting because we didn't butcher them. Timur and Genghis conquered Afghanistan through mountains of skulls. We butchered the Japanese.

As for me, I already told you. Get as many civilians to safety as I can, then I will try to save my army to fight another day. Failing any strategic or tactical reason to continue fighting, I surrender and tried to drain as much resources as I can from the Russians in feeding me and guarding me.

Of that 100 Ukrainian funerals, only about 30-35 are combat casualties. The rest are old, women, and children. If the Ukrainians are ready to pay that price, so be it but outsiders should not be so gleeful to put 65-70 old, women, and children to death just to see one Russian Flag draped coffin.

In all honesty, I wish Putin would just call it a win and go home. I see nothing but blood in the next 20-30 years no matter who wins.

[InExile]

Really, I am wondering if Putin has thought this through. If he does topple the current Ukrainian government what does he install in its place? Does he fly in Yanukovych? How does this Government survive on its own? Perhaps he can find people from the Donbass region for the new regime. How many Ukrainians, even Russian speaking one's would be willing to participate in such a Government. In any case, a large Russian occupation force will need to me maintained indefinitely.

Unlike in Russia, he will have no base of support in Ukraine. Atleast, due to this he can maintain the façade of elections in Russia. So will the new Ukrainian government be an absolute dictatorship? Unlike the Soviets, he doesn't have an ideology like communism where one can always find local support and enablers. Would an Yanukovych government have any support outside the Donbass?

[Officer of Engineers]

Old Roman trick (in fact, an old trick from every Empire in the old world) station foreigners in occupied regions. In this case, Ramzan Kadyrov already offered 10,000 Chechens, the same kind of people who did the Beslan School Seige, for the UKR. You know about the Beslan School Seige? 333 dead school children (some of them raped) and over 500 injured.

Yes, Putin has access to these animals. More reasons I wish Putin would just declare a win and go home.

[kato]

Yes, Putin has access to these animals.

You do realize Chechens have been fighting on the Ukrainian side since 2014 quite prominently, to the point where they've named streets in Kyev and Dnipro after Chechen military commanders?

2015: https://time.com/3893066/chechens-ukraine-war/
2022: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/worl...fight-against/

And, as you may remember, it wasn't the Chechens who killed 331 children in Beslan. It was the Russian Army collapsing the roof of the school over them by firing into it with T-72 MBTs, and the European Human Rights Court has established based on 400 cases that Russia used excessive means and intentionally obfuscated any evidence afterwards. Any other version of the story is the narrative pushed by Russia during and after the event.

[Officer of Engineers]

You do realize Chechens have been fighting on the Ukrainian side since 2014 quite prominently, to the point where they've named streets in Kyev and Dnipro after Chechen military commanders?

Chechen mercs one way or the other. Putin has more of them.

And, as you may remember, it wasn't the Chechens who killed 331 children in Beslan. It was the Russian Army collapsing the roof of the school over them by firing into it with T-72 MBTs, and the European Human Rights Court has established based on 400 cases that Russia used excessive means and intentionally obfuscated any evidence afterwards. Any other version of the story is the narrative pushed by Russia during and after the event.

Doesn't change the fact that they had intent to kill all the kids which was the point that Putin had access to these animals.

[rj1]

From politico.eu live blog:

UKRAINE READY TO NEGOTIATE, MUST RECEIVE SECURITY GUARANTEES: ZELENSKIY AIDE

Ukraine is ready to negotiate with Russia on becoming a neutral state, but it must also receive security guarantees, a top adviser to President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Thursday.

“Ukraine has always left and leaves room for negotiations. Including now — even after Russia launched a full-scale invasion. This war must be stopped. These hostilities must be stopped,” Mykhaylo Podolyak said in a statement carried on Ukrainian news agency Unian’s Telegram channel.

The offer to negotiate came amid reports of gunfire in the Obolon district of northern Kyiv, on the west bank of the Dnipro River.

Videos posted on Nexta Ukraine’s Telegram channel showed Russian armored cars on the streets of Obolon.

[Albany Rifles]

The short version of this is 'go to bellingcat'. They have never got the love folks like Snowden and The Rapist have because they focus more on dictatorships like Russia than Western democracies. Pity, because they do VERY good work.

Yeah Pete, I follow several of their writers on Twitter, including a Ukrainian-American who has been a great source during the lead up.

[Albany Rifles]

If this gives us a chance to renegotiate the utterly disgraceful gas contracts we are signed up to then bring it on!

Can you say more on this...I am unaware.

[Albany Rifles]

The thing I can't figure out is where is the freaking Russian artillery.

Sir, the area off of roads are a mud bog...they are stuck on hard surfaces. I am not sure if 2S1s & 2S3s can fire anywhere accurately without digging in their spades. The M109A5 and Pzh 2000 all have suspension systems which can fire without digging in. Don't know if that is a reason.

But, yeah, it is odd.

[Albany Rifles]

Unsure of the veracity of these stories but interesting read...a hero Fulcrum Pilot, an Air India pilot doing a Leeroy Jenkins & the Japanese Ambassador to Ukraine channeling his family's background.

Some interesting stories coming out of Ukraine.

Also circulating on Twitter is the Granma of Death...an elderly woman confronts Russian soldiers and tells them to put sunflower seeds in their pcokets...so the flowers will grow when they are buried in Ukrainian soil.

The ‘Ghost of Kyiv’, The Missing Mega-Plane, A Rogue Air India flight and a Samurai: Welcome to the Fog of War

February 25, 2022 Military Aviation, Russia, Troubled Areas, War in Ukraine
TOM DEMERLYPhotos circulating of a Ukrainian MiG-29 purported to be flown by the claimed "Ghost of Kyiv". (Photos: via Twitter)If Truth Is the First Casualty of War, It Died a Quick Death in Ukraine.


No one knows his name, but he is already a legend, at least on the internet. In only a few hours- according to social media, he defiantly took to the skies over Ukraine in his trusty MiG-29 and waged a one-man onslaught against the marauding Russian Air Forces.

According to Twitter and Reddit, the mystery mega-ace now called “The Ghost of Kyiv” singlehandedly shot down “six Russian aircraft” to achieve ace-in-a-day status. According to internet claims, the Ghost of Kiev chalked up six air-to-air kills with no less than two Russian Sukhoi Su-35s, a Russian Su-27 Flanker, a Russian MiG-29 and two Russian Su-25 ground attack aircraft allegedly “shot down”. And he’s still fighting, at least according to the internet.



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Internet media quickly seized the lore of a mysterious super-pilot who was allegedly shooting down Russian aircraft with impunity. (Photo: via meaww.com)
There’s only one catch: there probably is no “Ghost of Kyiv” and this internet legend is probably not true.

The legend of the “Ghost of Kyiv” is almost certainly an example of bizarre distortions and manipulations of fact or near-fact that are amplified during the chaos of war, especially a new war during the opening hours. These legends sometimes have at least some basis in fact, but as they travel through language barriers and across borders at the speed of light via social media, they become embellished, retransmitted and retweeted as “news”. There may have been Ukrainian air-to-air victories in the opening day of the war. There may have even been six total, or some other number. But the likelihood that six of these alleged aerial victories belongs to a singular, gallant “ace-in-a-day” is remote.



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At the same time our new hero, the now-legendary “Ghost of Kyiv”, was allegedly dropping Russian aircraft like flies, the internet was abuzz with concern over the “Kossak of Ukraine”, the massive Antonov An-225 Mriya (NATO reporting name “Kossak”) mega-airlifter, the one surviving largest aircraft on earth.
File photo of the Antonov An-225 Mriya, the fate of which remains unknown as the war in Ukraine unfolds. (Photo: via Antonov)
Posts on social media claimed the lone operational An-225 Mriya had been “damaged” during a battle for Antonov Airport, also called “Hostomel” or “Gostomel” Airport. Then Tweets and posts appeared suggesting the aircraft had survived the initial Battle of Antonov Airport intact. One media report claimed the Russians had “Captured the An-225”, which could be argued initially belonged to the Russians anyway, and was, in fact, “recaptured” by the Russians from the Ukrainians… but since then more reports have surfaced suggesting the An-225 has once again been “captured” or “re-captured” (“re-recaptured”?) back by the Ukrainians. The only thing that is absolutely certain about the An-225 as of this hour, is that nothing is certain.

While all this was unfolding, the airspace over Ukraine was closed to commercial air traffic for obvious safety reasons as the conflict erupted. Flight tracking apps showed a massive, empty airspace over Ukraine with a conspicuous lack of commercial air traffic, probably to make room for the “Ghost of Kyiv” to continue dropping Russian aircraft seemingly at will.

But then reports surfaced of Air India flight AI121, a Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner en route from Delhi, India to Frankfurt, Germany. According to Twitter, Air India flight AI121 simply barreled through the closed airspace, over the marauding “Ghost of Kyiv”, the Battle of Antonov Airport where the An-225 was reportedly changing hands every four hours depending on which reports you believed, and all the other chaos erupting below.



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Twitter was sharing flight tracking information for a lone airliner braving the restricted airspace over Ukraine as the first day of war continued. (Photo: via Twitter)
Whether passengers onboard Air India AI121 knew they were the only airliner in the world running the gauntlet of a country newly at war has not been revealed, but it would have been interesting to see passenger reactions when AI121 landed safely in Frankfurt a few hours later.
Air India Flight AI121, a Boeing 787 Dreamliner, shown flying across the closed airspace above Ukraine. (Planefinder via Twitter)
Finally, back on Feb. 18, 2022, right before all this unfolded, the Ukrainian Ambassador to Japan, Sergiy Korsunsky, decided to don traditional Japanese Samurai regalia and post a photo of himself on Twitter to… well, we’re not exactly certain why he did it. Perhaps as a show of defiance against Russia from Ukraine, but dressed as an ancient Japanese warlord.

We know what we are fighting for. How about Russia?
私たちは何のために戦っているのかを知っています。ロシアはどうですか？ pic.twitter.com/8FEInU3bWn

— セルギー・コルスンスキー駐日ウクライナ特命全権大使 (@KorsunskySergiy) February 15, 2022

And finally, to add to the “fog of war” as the situation in Ukraine becomes more serious, numerous videos and photos have surfaced in social media (and even some supposedly “credible” news outlets) that used images from previous, unrelated conflicts, claiming to be from the current conflict. These old images have added to confusion over what is really happening in Ukraine right now. Some imagery may even be from sophisticated computer wargames using realistic CGI.

And as the tragedy of war for all parties in the region continues to grind on, these bizarre stories are a stark reminder that ultimately, the task of deciding the narrative of history in war usually falls to the victor. As of this hour, no one is quite certain who that will be.

[Albany Rifles]

If you are on Twitter and looking for good analysis I recommend LTG (Ret) Mark Hertling's account @markhertling . LTG Hertling was Commander, US Army Europe about a decade ago. He has seen how the Ukrainian Army has improved over the last 2 decades. He also gives good analysis on the Sov...err...Russian forces (sorry, Freudian slip).


I also recommend the website War On The Rocks (https://warontherocks.com/). It is a site with military, intelligence and security experts from around the globe who bring their expertise to reporting and understanding warfare. A good site...very even handed.

[Albany Rifles]

From an old professional Soldier's point of view some quick analysis and opinions.*

1. Airborne/Air Assault against a partially intact air defense network is a highly suspect operation in 2022 (looking at America's 5 airborne brigade combat teams...)

2. Russians are not using their artillery appropriately. Is this because they Russians want to resist breaking too much?

3. Cyber warfare is important. Within moments of the attack starting the Ukrainians decoupled their power network from Russia and kept power going. Would be interested if they have linked to Poland or Rumania?

4. Combat proficiency of conscripts appear to be fairly poor. Real reluctance of getting out of APC and fighting dismounted.

* Your experience may vary.

[Versus]

The thing I can't figure out is where is the freaking Russian artillery.

It won't be used in that way.
Russians have no intention of leveling every city in Ukraine to the ground, simply because that would create permanent antagonism within Ukrainian nation and Russia doesn't want that. They don't want the scenario that was performed in Croatia and Kosovo aka defeat plus humiliation. Hence they have to take over Ukraine but without humiliation of Ukraine as a state and as a nation.You saw Croats and Albanians in action and what has happened after CNN crews left and cameras were shut down...Russians don't need that kind of narrative.

[TopHatter]

1. Airborne/Air Assault against a partially intact air defense network is a highly suspect operation in 2022 (looking at America's 5 airborne brigade combat teams...)

Or during broad daylight!

If that Spetznaz heliborne reinforcement was planned from the start that way....wow...