2022-2024 Russo-Ukrainian War

[Firestorm]

You do realize that the cost to the Taliban was 150 dead for every single American dead and Afghanistan is just a sand dump to the Americans. Ukraine is sacred Russian soil (Ukrainians would beg to differ) in that the Russians consider the Kevian Rus to be the first Russian Empire (again Ukrainians would beg to differ). The point is there is no way the Ukrainians could ever outbleed the Russians.

How many Russian still think like that though? We don't know since there is no way to carry out an unbiased poll in Russia. But the anti-war protests happening inside Russia might tell us something.

Get that ************ away from the lines. He is worst than Trump, another showman surrounding himself by yes-men. We've been screaming for months that Putin was going to invade and he still insisted he saw no signs of pending doom. Did nothing to beef up defence and only called declare Martial Law on the Day of the Invasion when DNR and LNR had mobilized for days. Put him on the lines and he would only open the gates to Kiev just to get a dramatic picture of him and him alone facing down a tank.

If he were in my chain of command, I would have relieved him for incompetence.

Perhaps they decided it was better to let the Russians reach the cities and fight them there than in open terrain where they'd inevitably lose badly. They obviously would not publicize all the preparations that they did. In Kyiv airport at least they did seem to have a RRF which engaged the Russians and was good enough to recapture the airport and spoil the Russian plan to fly in reinforcements. The Russians obviously didn't expect this kind of resistance.

[Officer of Engineers]

How many Russian still think like that though? We don't know since there is no way to carry out an unbiased poll in Russia. But the anti-war protests happening inside Russia might tell us something.

At least 170,000.

Perhaps they decided it was better to let the Russians reach the cities and fight them there than in open terrain where they'd inevitably lose badly. They obviously would not publicize all the preparations that they did.

They did enough. Yes, that's cardboard.



China Army surplus AK47s are $75 a copy and they couldn't afford to outfit this guy? That uniform cost more than a Chinese surplus AK47.

In Kyiv airport at least they did seem to have a RRF which engaged the Russians and was good enough to recapture the airport and spoil the Russian plan to fly in reinforcements. The Russians obviously didn't expect this kind of resistance.

Again, that's not how Operations work. No one single engagement is enough to derail the OPOBJ.

[TopHatter]

Putin's inner circle reportedly seemed to think his military buildup was just a bluff
Many in Russia are shocked to see President Vladimir Putin escalate the country's conflict with Ukraine to a full-scale war, reports The New York Times.

Even though Moscow's invasion of Ukraine was not entirely surprising after weeks of increasing military presence along the border, many analysts say some of Putin's strategy is seemingly out of character. "A number of people in Moscow's foreign policy establishment, where analysts overwhelmingly characterized Mr. Putin's military buildup around Ukraine as an elaborate and astute bluff in recent months, admitted on Thursday that they had monumentally misjudged a man they had spent decades studying," writes the Times. Several prominent pundits in Russia had written off the idea of war as ridiculous given Putin's past handling of conflict.

One notable change, experts told the Times, is Putin's demeanor after two years of the global pandemic. After Putin's long-term dedication to self-isolating, he "appeared to become more aggrieved and more emotional, and increasingly spoke about his mission in stark historical terms." Political scientist Gleb O. Pavlovsky, who was once a close adviser to Putin, said "he's become an isolated man, more isolated than Stalin was," and described being stunned by Putin's "dark description of Ukraine as a dire threat to Russia," per the Times.

Another political analyst, Tatiana Stanovaya, agreed Putin has "become less pragmatic, and more emotional." After years of projecting calm strength, she and much of the "ruling elite around" Putin were astounded by the "shift" away from pragmatic strategy. Stanovaya said even Putin's inner circle did not realize Russia was actually hurtling toward war until it was too late. Read more at
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Yeah, lot of that going around....

[zraver]

I'm still struggling to understand what Putin hopes to achieve by this all-out invasion. If it was a limited operation to occupy Donbas or create a land corridor to Crimea I might understand. But this seems to be way beyond that. Even if the invasion succeeds what then? Any puppet government he leaves behind is likely to be overthrown quickly by Ukrainians who will be even more pissed off at Russia and anyone supporting it than they are already. Any agreement to not join NATO made as part of the terms of surrender won't be worth the paper it's written on. It can and will be repudiated by a future Ukrainian administration. He can't keep invading again and again. A complete occupation of Ukraine is not feasible because of the insurgency that would create that'd make the Iraqi one seem like a cakewalk. And this is besides whatever economic costs Russia will have to bear as a result of sanctions.

And it seems like the assault on Kyiv at least may be floundering. This might turn out to be a very bad miscalculation on Putin's part overall . Maybe he's getting too old for this shit.

He is getting old, and too him the fall of the USSR was history's biggest tragedy. Reforming the Russian Empire would give him immortality. His thinking is seriously revanchistict., too the point he will accept junior partner status with China if it helps him regain the western portions of the empire. After all, all Russia lost in the East were the lands of the muslims.

[TopHatter]

The airfield is now back in control of Ukrainian forces. By every available indication, the battle that occurred there was a ferocious one. Details are very limited, but apparently, a contingent of Russian special forces flew to the airfield as reinforcements aboard a number of helicopters. Some claim as many as six of these helicopters were shot down with the loss of all those onboard. This happened in broad daylight, which put the helicopters at great risk. Once again, these details could change drastically at any time, but it seems Ukrainian forces scored a major victory today and Russia took a major loss. This airport was clearly seen as of extremely high value to Russian war planners. Link

That is absolutely awesome. Let's hope the Russians get stymied like this again and again.

[Firestorm]

At least 170,000.

They are fighting because they are ordered to by Putin. If Putin feels he is becoming way too unpopular at home because of this those 170,000 can be ordered to turn back just as quickly.

They did enough. Yes, that's cardboard.

I don't know the context of that photo. I am disinclined to think that he and others are going to be sent into an actual battle against the Russians without a rifle.

Again, that's not how Operations work. No one single engagement is enough to derail the OPOBJ.

I am not saying this means Russia will lose. But it is one operation that seems to have blown up in Putin's face. And we don't know how the others are going since accurate information about them is hard to come by. Perhaps the Ukrainians are not as ill-prepared as the Russians might have imagined. Or perhaps their own military capabilities have atrophied more than they care to admit.

[astralis]

Get that walking clusterfuck away from the lines. He is worst than Trump, another showman surrounding himself by yes-men. He's only interested in photo-ops, not anything concrete. We've been screaming for months that Putin was going to invade and he still insisted he saw no signs of pending doom. Did nothing to beef up defence and only declared Martial Law on the Day of the Invasion when DNR and LNR had mobilized for days. Talked to everyone else but the one person who could stopped the invasion, Putin. Pretty well ignored Putin until it was too late. Put him on the lines and he would only open the gates to Kiev just to get a dramatic picture of him and him alone facing down a tank.

a damned fool, yes...but he could have done a Ghani by now. he hasn't. so at least he's got -that- going for him.

[TopHatter]

INITIAL RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT

Key Takeaways

• Ukrainian forces are successfully slowing Russian offensives on all axes of advance other than a Russian breakout from the Crimean Peninsula. Russian failure to ground the Ukrainian air force or cripple Ukrainian command and control is likely enabling these initial Ukrainian successes.
• Ukrainian forces are contesting the Hostomel military airport, 20 km northwest of Kyiv, as of 9:30 pm local time.[3] Russian VDV (Airborne) troops landed at Hostomel and have also failed to capture the Boryspil airport southeast of Kyiv. Ukraine’s contestation of the airport deprives Russian forces of any location to airlift forces onto Kyiv’s western flank overnight.
• Russian forces are rapidly advancing north from Crimea, securing Kherson city. Their deepest penetration to date is about 60 kilometers.
• Russian forces are advancing on Kyiv from Belarus on both sides of the Dnipro River. Russian forces secured the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone (on the west bank) at 7:30 pm local time, but Ukrainian forces have slowed Russian advances east of the Dnipro at Chernihiv.
• Russian forces likely seek to cut off Ukrainian troops on the line of contact in Donbas using an envelopment behind the Ukrainian front lines through Luhansk Oblast. Russian frontal assaults have taken little territory in Donetsk and Luhansk at this time.

Russian military operations began with a short and incomplete air campaign on February 24 around 4:00 am local time targeting Ukrainian air defenses, supply depots, and airfields across unoccupied Ukraine. However, portions of the Ukrainian Air Force remain operational and Ukrainian command and control appears intact.

• US defense officials estimate initial strikes comprised over 100 missiles including a mix of short and medium-range ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and sea-launched missiles.[4] An estimated 75 Russian bombers participated in the attack.[5]
• Russia did not successfully ground the Ukrainian air force or cripple the Ukrainian armed forces, enabling several Ukrainian successes on February 24. ISW incorrectly forecasted that any Russian offensive would begin with a concentrated air and missile campaign to cripple Ukrainian command and control and infrastructure.
• The Russian failure to comprehensively strike key Ukrainian assets is a surprising break from expected Russian operations and has likely enabled stiffer Ukrainian defense. The Ukrainian military has shot down seven Russian aircraft and seven helicopters as of 8:00 pm local time, February 24.[6]
• Russia has not demonstrated its full air and missile capabilities and will likely conduct further waves of strikes in the coming days aimed at degrading Ukraine’s command and control and ability to redeploy forces.

Ukrainian forces are currently contesting the Hostomel military airport, 20 km northwest of Kyiv, against Russian VDV (airborne) troops likely from the 31st Guards Air Assault Brigade as of 9:30 pm local time after several unsuccessful counterattacks earlier in the day.[7] Russian airborne forces were additionally unable to secure the Boryspil airport (Kyiv’s primary international airport), southeast of Kyiv.[8] Ukraine’s contestation of the airport prevents Russia from airlifting reinforcements to isolate Kyiv from western Ukraine, as feared earlier in the day.

Russian ground forces are advancing on four primary axes, discussed in turn below:

1. Belarus/Kyiv;
2. Kharkiv;
3. Donbas; and
4. Crimea-Kherson.

1) Belarus/Kyiv axis: Russian forces in Belarus are advancing on Kyiv along both sides of the Dnipro River, likely seeking to isolate Kyiv. Russian forces have made greater progress west of the Dnipro, successfully securing the Chernobyl exclusion zone.

• Ukrainian forces reported halting Russia’s offensive by elements of the 36th Combined Arms Army into Kyiv Oblast from Belarus at Chernihiv, roughly 120 km northeast of Kyiv, including capturing an entire reconnaissance platoon of the Russian 74th Motor Rifle Brigade.[9]
• Russian forces secured the Chernobyl exclusion zone as of 7:30 pm local time.[10] Russian forces likely intend to cut Kyiv off from western Ukraine through a drive down the western bank of the Dnipro River. The failure of Russian airborne forces to secure the Hostomel airport will impede this envelopment.
• No Belarusian forces are confirmed to be participating in operations in Ukraine as of this time. Belarusian President Lukashenko claimed Belarusian forces will not participate in operations in Ukraine and instead cover the “western operational direction” against Poland and Lithuania.[11]

2) Kharkiv axis: Russian forces, including confirmed elements of the 1st Guards Tank Army, are conducting a frontal assault on Kharkiv from northeastern Ukraine.[12] Ukrainian forces are temporarily halting Russian advances but Russian forces will likely enter Kharkiv before the end of the day.

• Heavy fighting is currently ongoing on key roads leading from Russia to Kharkiv. Ukrainian forces are inflicting casualties on Russian tanks using US-provided Javelin antitank systems.[13] Elements of the 1st Guards Tank Army entered the outskirts of Kharkiv at 2:00 pm local time.[14] ISW cannot confirm at this time the extent of Russian advances into Kharkiv.
• Russian forces have additionally crossed the northeastern Ukrainian border at several points. Ukrainian forces appear to be conducting fighting withdrawals. Ukrainian forces halted Russian forces northwest of Kharkiv in Sumy Oblast.[15]

3) Donbas axis: Russian forces, likely elements of the 8th Combined Arms Army, are conducting an envelopment through Luhansk Oblast rather than a frontal assault from the Russian-occupied Donbas. Russian forces likely seek to cut off Ukrainian forces on the line of contact and/or drive them out of their prepared defensive positions, forcing them to fight in the open.

• Russian forces made achieved limited advances in northern Luhansk Oblast.
• Russian forces have likely not secured a breakthrough along the line of contact in Donbas but claim to have done so. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed at 7:00 pm local time that Russian proxy troops with Russian air and artillery support broke through the line of contact in unspecified locations to a depth of 6-8 km.[16] The UK Ministry of Defense reported at 8:30 pm EET (Ukraine local time) that Russian forces have not achieved a breakthrough.[17] Ukrainian forces last reported they were holding firm along the entire line of contact at 5:00 pm local time.[18] ISW cannot confirm Russian MoD claims that proxy forces—rather than Russia’s 8th Combined Arms Army—are conducting frontal assaults in Donbas, though a decision not to deploy Russian frontline troops into occupied Donbas in advance of the invasion may explain limited Russian success. Russian forces have reportedly been unable to secure terrain in a frontal assault from Donetsk toward Mariupol as of 7:00 pm local time.[19]

4) Russian forces are making their greatest territorial gains advancing north from Crimea. Russian forces have reportedly penetrated to a depth of at least 60 km and captured Kherson city, securing access to the Crimean Canal.[20] President Zelensky identified the attack from Crimea as the “most problematic situation.”[21]

• Elements of the 7th VDV (airborne) Division and unknown elements of the 58th Combined Arms Army are conducting the breakout operation. Russian forces are advancing both east (toward Melitopol) and west (toward Odesa).[22]
• ISW cannot confirm reports of any Russian amphibious landings in Odesa or Mariupol. Initial reports of such landings appear to be incorrect. Russia may wait until forces from Crimea have secured crossings over the Dnipro River before attempting to seize Odesa by air and sea.

Immediate items to watch

• Russian Naval Infantry have not yet conducted amphibious landings but retain the capability to do so against the Odesa or the Azov Sea coasts or both.
• Russian Airborne forces may successfully secure the Hostomel military airport overnight, enabling Russia to airlift additional forces onto Kyiv’s western flank.
• Russia will likely conduct additional rounds of air and missile strikes in the coming 24 hours. Russian operations will likely steadily wear down Ukrainian air capabilities and eventually take the Ukrainian air force out of the fight.
• Russian forces have not yet attempted the decapitation strike several analysts and outlets have forecasted and may attempt to do so in the near future.
• It remains unclear how much of its total strength the Russian military has committed at this time.
• Russia has sufficient conventional military power to reinforce each of its current axes of advance and overpower the conventional Ukrainian forces defending them

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[Monash]

So is the current assessment that the invasion will stop once the Russia secures Kiev and everything east of the Dniepr or is it Putin's the intention to overrun the entire country?

[TopHatter]

By invading Ukraine, Putin loses allies in eastern Europe
PRAGUE (AP) — Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shocked the former Soviet satellite states of Central and Eastern Europe, drawing strong condemnation even from the region’s most pro-Kremlin politicians.

For some of the countries that fled the Soviet bloc following a series of anti-communist revolutions more than 30 years ago, footage of tanks and troops rolling in to punish a nation trying to pursue its own independent course looks painfully familiar.

Two until now major pro-Russian voices in the European Union, Czech President Milos Zeman and Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban, didn't mince their words in criticizing Moscow’s most aggressive action since the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979.

Their countries experienced comparable brutality — the Czech Republic, as part of Czechoslovakia, in 1968 and Hungary in 1956.

Zeman called Thursday's invasion “an unprovoked act of aggression.”

“Russia has committed a crime against peace,” he said in an address to the nation.

Zeman had previously made news by calling Russia’s 2014 annexation of the Ukrainian Crimean Peninsula “a fait accompli.”

Many in the Czech Republic reviled Zeman as a “servant of Kremlin” after he sided with Russia and cast doubt on the findings of his own security and intelligence services on the alleged participation of Russian spies in a huge 2014 ammunition explosion.

Until just days ago, Zeman was insisting that the Russians wouldn't attack Ukraine because “they aren’t lunatics to launch an operation that would be more damaging for them than beneficial.”

“I admit I was wrong,” he said Thursday.

Zeman has called for harsh sanctions against Russia, including cutting it out of the SWIFT financial system which shuffles money from bank to bank around the globe.

“It’s necessary to isolate a lunatic and not just to defend ourselves by words but also by deeds,” he said.

Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala also voiced full support for the strongest possible sanctions for what he called “an absolutely unjustified act of aggression against a sovereign state.”

Prague ordered the closure of two Russian consulates in the Czech Republic and stopped accepting visa requests from Russian citizens.

Pavel Rychetsky, the chief judge at the Constitutional court, the country’s highest legal authority, suggested that a European arrest warrant should be issued against Russian President Vladimir Putin. He said Putin should be tried at the International Criminal Court for “an unprecedented unleashing of war on the European continent for the first time since World War II.”

In Hungary, high ranking officials had for weeks avoided condemning Russia’s actions directly. Under Orban, the country has pursued close ties with Putin, a point of concern for many of Hungary’s western partners.

Hungary has historically deeply distrusted Moscow, which ordered the brutal repression of an anti-Soviet uprising in 1956. But Orban in recent years has pursued a diplomatic and economic strategy he calls “Eastern Opening,” which favors closer ties with countries to the east, and in his frequent battles with the EU has called the 27-nation bloc an oppressive imperial power similar to Hungary’s former Soviet occupiers.

But on Thursday, Orban was clear in his condemnation of the Kremlin.

“Russia attacked Ukraine this morning with military force,” Orban said in a video on Facebook. “Together with our European Union and NATO allies, we condemn Russia’s military action.”

“Hungary’s position is clear: we stand by Ukraine, we stand by Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty,” his Foreign Minister Peter Szijijarto said.

Bulgaria, Moscow’s closest ally during the Cold War, followed suit.

“Having strategic bombers and missiles flying in Europe in the 21st century, assaults by air and sea against a sovereign state, is absolutely inadmissible,” President Rumen Radev said.

Romania also stood staunchly with its western partners.

“Through today’s cynical invasion, the Russian Federation is the architect of the worst security crisis since World War II,” the ruling coalition leaders said.

Neighboring Moldova, a former Soviet republic and one of the few former communist Eastern European countries not to have joined NATO so far, echoed these views.

Moldovan President Maia Sandu stressed that Russia’s attacks were launched “in violation of international norms,” adding that the international community “unanimously condemns these military actions.”

___

[Officer of Engineers]

They are fighting because they are ordered to by Putin. If Putin feels he is becoming way too unpopular at home because of this those 170,000 can be ordered to turn back just as quickly.

Count them as non-belivers when they leave Ukraine and not one second before.

I don't know the context of that photo. I am disinclined to think that he and others are going to be sent into an actual battle against the Russians without a rifle.

They're reservists. You can tell by the different shoes and gear each one got. The point again is that this should not have had happen and that they even allow this photo states just how fucked up Zelensky had done things.

I am not saying this means Russia will lose. But it is one operation that seems to have blown up in Putin's face.

It's a Ukrainian win but the point is let's not overblown this. Kiev is still under threat and this win does nothing to relieve that threat.

And we don't know how the others are going since accurate information about them is hard to come by. Perhaps the Ukrainians are not as ill-prepared as the Russians might have imagined. Or perhaps their own military capabilities have atrophied more than they care to admit.

No battle plan ever survives first contact. Anatov Airport is no better example of this. The loss of that engagement has not slowed their advance towards Kiev. They had no need to retreat, regroup, re-evaluate, and then to re-commit. The columns just are now going with plan b or c or d.

[zraver]

So is the current assessment that the invasion will stop once the Russia secures Kiev and everything east of the Dniepr or is it Putin's the intention to overrun the entire country?

His speech said he was goign to de-nazifi the country (regime change so overrun the entire country and install a puppet government) that language was dropped in his olive branch overture that now merely "demands" demilitarization and a treaty banning the Ukraine from joining NATO (less than complete victory but still achieve 2 of 3 strategic aims).

[zraver]

C

No battle plan ever survives first contact. Anatov Airport is no better example of this. The loss of that engagement has not slowed their advance towards Kiev. They had no need to retreat, regroup, re-evaluate, and then to re-commit. The columns just are now going with plan b or c or d.

Videos of Russian tanks show many of them with overhead slat armor to defeat our javelins. Not sure how well that is working out for them. Not having the airports means they have to run the atgm guantlet. I think this might be the one area where Ukraine has an edge. Except for some T-90's that use French FLIR;s Russia is likely deficient in the thermal department. Small ATGM teams using FNF/ top down attack weapons like the javelin can exact a brutal toll.

One other area that Ukrain might have an edge in, is intelligence regrding Russian movements. The sites that track aircraft show an E-3 running a racetrack pattern in Eastern Poland. If we are sharing intel it could help explain why the Ukrainian air force and C3 assets are still up and running. Its also likely to be a source of serious risk and escalation once the S-400 is in range of it.

[Officer of Engineers]

The thing I can't figure out is where is the freaking Russian artillery.

[zraver]

Twitter is showing videos purporting to be Russian bombers being shot down.