2022-2024 Russo-Ukrainian War

[Albany Rifles]

After this Russia is going to be an International pariah. Why would they leave the current government of Ukraine in place? If the Russians leave without toppling the current Government, Ukraine is only going to be far more hostile to Russia and will try and arm itself as fast as possible with a lot of help from the West.

The rhetoric sure seems that way. Putin keeps saying that the Ukrainian government is a Nazi/fascist government. He is building his casus belli for removing the legally elected democratic government of a European nation.

[Albany Rifles]

Good. Russia is in the "find out" stage. The West needs to keep hammering their economy and anyone who helps...looking at you Belarus.


https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/24/inves...ash/index.html

Russian stocks crash and ruble plunges to record low


By Mark Thompson and Chris Liakos, CNN Business



Updated 9:11 AM ET, Thu February 24, 2022


Russian stocks crashed by as much as 45%and the ruble hit a record low against the dollar on Thursday.

The Moscow market rout was triggered by news that Russian troops had launched an attack on Ukraine, a move that is likely to trigger a new wave of "full scale" sanctions aimed at President Vladimir Putin's inner circle and Russia's oil-dependent economy.
A broad offensive by Russian forces targeted military infrastructure across Ukraine as well as several airports. The assault began hours before dawn and quickly spread across central and eastern Ukraine as Russian forces attacked from three sides. Putin warned of bloodshed unless Ukrainian forces lay down their arms.The Moscow stock exchange had suspended trading earlier on Thursday but when dealing resumed, stocks went into free-fall.The MOEX index plunged as much as 45% before rebounding to trade down 33%, while the RTS index — which is denominated in dollars — was down 38% at 8:25 a.m. ET. The crash wiped about $70 billion off the value of Russia's biggest companies.Russian banks and oil companies were among the hardest hit in volatile trading, with shares in Sberbank (SBRCY) — Russia's largest lender — at one stage losing 57% of their value. Rosneft, in which BP (BP) owns a 19.75% stake, plunged as much as 58%, before steadying a little. BP shares dropped 3% in London. Gazprom (GZPFY), the giant gas company behind the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, was down 40%.
Russia's central bank said in a statement that it had instructed brokers to suspend short sales "given the current situation in the financial market and to protect the rights and legitimate interests of investors." That means they can no longer borrow securities to sell in anticipation of buying them back at a lower price. The order took effect at 11:00 a.m. local time.
The ruble was trading at 84 to the dollar, down 3%, after earlier hitting a new record low of 89.60. The Russian central bank said it would intervene in the currency market and provide extra liquidity to the banking sector.
"This emotional reaction was inevitable, but at the same time it will stabilize," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said about the market turmoil in a call with foreign journalists. "All the necessary measures have been taken for this," he added.
The United States, European Union, United Kingdom and other allies announced limited new sanctions on Russia earlier this week after Moscow said it would send troops into two breakaway regions of eastern Ukraine. Germany said it was suspending certification of the controversial Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline.
US, EU and UK officials have made clear that much tougher measures would follow should Russia invade.
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said on Thursday the European Union is set to unleash "the full packet of sanctions" against Russia, adding that the world must respond resolutely or run the risk of paying an even higher price.
"We woke up in a different world today," Baerbock told reporters at a news conference in Berlin, adding "we will launch the full package of massive sanctions against Russia."
The Baltic states of Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia called for Russia to be ejected from SWIFT, the secure messaging services that facilitates payments among 11,000 financial institutions in 200 countries.
"The entire international community must firmly condemn Russia's aggression and impose the toughest possible sanctions in response to such outrageous acts, including disconnecting Russian banks from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT)," the foreign ministers of the three countries said in a joint statement.
In a statement, SWIFT said it was "a neutral global cooperative" and "any decision to impose sanctions on countries or individual entities rests solely with the competent government bodies and applicable legislators."
Excluding Russia from SWIFT would cause its economy to shrink by 5%, former finance minister Alexei Kudrin estimated in 2014 — the last time this sanction was considered in response to Russia's annexation of CrimeaSberbank said it was prepared for any developments and had worked through scenarios to guarantee its customers' funds, assets and interests were protected, Reuters reported.

[Parihaka]

Two questions:
Does anyone expect Europe to stop buying Russian gas?
Does Putin look quite sick to anyone else?

[Albany Rifles]

Two questions:
Does anyone expect Europe to stop buying Russian gas?
Does Putin look quite sick to anyone else?

1. I know right now the US is the #1 producer of natural gas but our export capabilities are currently are maxed out...heard a report on NPR last night on that very topic. Some pipelines are in construction but I don't know of other sources. Hope someone here can be more enlightening.

Here is the link:

Ukraine crisis drives up global energy prices : NPR

2. Thought the same but thought I was wrong. Good eye, Iain.

[tantalus]

Does Putin look quite sick to anyone else?

Wasnt he also incredibly careful with covid infection. I heard rumours of people having to walk through a disinfection corridor just to visit him very early on in pandemic , plus wasnt there something in relation to macron meeting recently...

Edit. I also thought the same...

[Officer of Engineers]

The helo assault at Anatov Airport is bold, very bold.

[rj1]

Posted about an hour ago, journalist from the German Bild:

https://mobile.twitter.com/JulianRoe...isolation=true

Russian troops have captured Sumy in northeast Ukraine. No fighting and Russian tanks control city center.

Also Ochtyrka fell. Possible there is only one Russian front between Kharkiv and Sumy.

Pictures at the link above and a video of some burning military trucks in the street.

This guy is keeping a map that he calls conservative in light of information being wrong, map based on Ukrainian army reports and geolocation data. Appears Russia went north from Crimea pretty easily.

[Red Team]

The helo assault at Anatov Airport is bold, very bold.

Apparently those Russian troops are elements of the 45th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade. A reddit thread I've been keeping track of has stated that they have seized the actual airport, but are currently under counterattack by local Ukrainian troops.

[tantalus]

The helo assault at Anatov Airport is bold, very bold.

Seems like a bit of a crazy and unecessary risk.

Suggests to me the russians have made a very dim assessment of the ukranian forces to think they could take and hold it, and will get relieve soon enough by ground forces.

Perhaps thinking ukranian defense and counters would be weak and slow due to major element of surprise.

[Red Team]

Reports on the frontline are scattered, with many contradictions and misinformation but this is what I have seen so far:

--Russian incursions from the LNR/DNR regions seem to have stalled, or at least are progressing slower than anticipated.
--Russian incursions from Crimea have found more success, as Ukrainian defenders in the region find themselves outnumbered and having to conduct hit and run operations to fight back. Kherson appears to have been taken and now the Russians are advancing towards Melitopol.
--Russian/Belorussian forces have taken Chernobyl and are poised to use the region as a jump-off point towards Kyiv.
--Russian Airborne units have landed at Antonov airport and are currently trying to hold off a Ukrainian counterattack. UPDATE: Ukrainian Defense Ministry has reported the loss of the airport. Russian Airborne reinforcements are expected to fly in to prepare for an assault on the capital.

Also interestingly, there are reports of Chechnyans fighting under Kadyrov's outfit as well as Chechnyan volunteers fighting alongside local Ukrainian defenders.

[TopHatter]

"Ukrainians are expecting an assault on Kyiv tonight. Concern about significant numbers of RU paratroopers flying into Hostomel airport 15km from Kyiv tonight"

[zraver]

"Ukrainians are expecting an assault on Kyiv tonight. Concern about significant numbers of RU paratroopers flying into Hostomel airport 15km from Kyiv tonight"

That could get very bad very fast. Fallujah showed why its a bad idea to use light infantry to take built up urban area. Grozny showed why armor only is even worse. In Fallujah allied forces went house by house methodically, had extensive and still lost almost 100 troops despite the best medical care and casualty evacuation infrastructure the world has ever seen. They really need to wait until the motor rifle divisions reach the city. Plus Kiev is big enough (almost 900 square miles and 3 million people) to swallow the Russian army if the Ukrainians don't give up.

[Officer of Engineers]

Seems like a bit of a crazy and unecessary risk.

Not really. I have zero doubts that the Russians fully have intel assets spread across the UKR. The Russians would have real time intel on the Ukrainian forces deployed at the airport and what is available for call up. What is bold is how this threw Kiev for a loop. I would have expected several points to be taken before the Russians made a move on Kiev. Hitting it on the first day meant that the Ukrainians were not only physically not prepared to receive the assault but also psychologically not prepared.

Also showed just how unprepared the Ukrainians are. Yeah, I would have been surprised too but I would also have a RRF ready to respond.

[Albany Rifles]

Seems like a bit of a crazy and unecessary risk.

Suggests to me the russians have made a very dim assessment of the ukranian forces to think they could take and hold it, and will get relieve soon enough by ground forces.

Perhaps thinking ukranian defense and counters would be weak and slow due to major element of surprise.

Not at all. Standard doctrine. Seize an airfield by airborne/air assault. Bring in reinforcements by air landing. You can be in a metric shit ton of equipment and vehicles in AN-124s & 225s. If you notice the Ukrainian air defense networks were early targets.

[Albany Rifles]

That could get very bad very fast. Fallujah showed why its a bad idea to use light infantry to take built up urban area. Grozny showed why armor only is even worse. In Fallujah allied forces went house by house methodically, had extensive and still lost almost 100 troops despite the best medical care and casualty evacuation infrastructure the world has ever seen. They really need to wait until the motor rifle divisions reach the city. Plus Kiev is big enough (almost 900 square miles and 3 million people) to swallow the Russian army if the Ukrainians don't give up.

Which is why the Russians learned their lessons and applied combined arms operations in follow on combat. They got the Infantry out of the APCs and on foot backed by tanks & artillery. That is what the US did in several cities in Iraq...same with the Iraqis themselves when going after Daesh.

And light infantry is exactly what you want in a city, backed by firepower which the Russians will have. Any scenario of US light forces fighting in EUrope had them fighting either in built up areas or on reverse slope of heavy wooded areas. Plus the Belarus border is not too far away and can reinforce rather quickly.

And a 100 killed...that is nothing to the Russian calculus.