2022-2024 Russo-Ukrainian War

[statquo]

I feel like we're going to witness a full route with Kiev falling and no small incursions.

[Bigfella]

Is this Ukraine's Gliewitz Incident?

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...rt-2022-02-17/

Apparently not, but the comparison you are after is the shelling of Mainila.

The Shelling of Mainila was a military incident on 26 November 1939 in which the Soviet Union's Red Army shelled the Soviet village of Mainila (Russian: Ма́йнило, romanized: Máynilo) near Beloostrov. The Soviet Union declared that the fire originated from Finland across the nearby border and claimed to have had losses in personnel. Through that false flag operation, the Soviet Union gained a great propaganda boost and a casus belli for launching the Winter War four days later

Say what you will about Comrade Koba, he could be a quick study when it suited. While Comrade Vlad draws heavily on the examples of Adolf and Koba, I think he feels closer to his Georgian predecessor.

[zraver]

I feel like we're going to witness a full route with Kiev falling and no small incursions.

Pundits are saying Russia is going to do a US style operation. Ukraine's only real option does not appear to be winning but killing, getting the killing on video (like the jihadis) and thereby wounding Putin by making the sanctions bite plus body bags making it look like a net loss for Russia.

[Red Team]

Pundits are saying Russia is going to do a US style operation. Ukraine's only real option does not appear to be winning but killing, getting the killing on video (like the jihadis) and thereby wounding Putin by making the sanctions bite plus body bags making it look like a net loss for Russia.

This is also coming off of a Russia that has taken significant hits to their economy from COVID-19, ongoing sanctions, inflation, emigration etc. Having the first large-scale conventional war in 21st century Europe livestreamed to the world could be the breaking point.

[Albany Rifles]

Apparently not, but the comparison you are after is the shelling of Mainila.



Say what you will about Comrade Koba, he could be a quick study when it suited. While Comrade Vlad draws heavily on the examples of Adolf and Koba, I think he feels closer to his Georgian predecessor.

Pete, you are right. This is a better example.

[Albany Rifles]

This is also coming off of a Russia that has taken significant hits to their economy from COVID-19, ongoing sanctions, inflation, emigration etc. Having the first large-scale conventional war in 21st century Europe livestreamed to the world could be the breaking point.

Remember this turned public opinion when we saw villages in the Balkans shelled live on the nightly national news. It lead to the US intervention (I remember BG Pat O'Neal, ADC-S, 1st Armored Division walking across the float bridge over the Save River. I was one of his battle staff when he was G-3 of the 24th ID AT FT Stewart in 88-89.). Further massacres also led to our air war to free Kosovo.

As for the economy, I saw a point today that the GDP of NY State was larger than the GDP of Russia. If the US can get sactions using the SWIFT that will really hurt. And the EU & NATO are much more united than back in 2014 when it was considered upon Russia taking Crimea.

[S2]

A quick glance at the OSCE's daily summary shows a massive increase in cease-fire violations between 2/16/22 and today. Funny enough, OSCE monitoring officials were prevented access to a live-fire training exercise on the morning of 2/16/22 held by the rebels in the Luhansk area and threatened with seizure of their vehicles. All this shortly before the spike in violations. Seems possible those rebel forces(?) were honing their skills shortly before executing an intensified bombardment program. 24 violations in Donetsk and 129 in the Luhansk on 2/16/22. By 2/19/22 those had gone up to 591 (Donetsk) and 975 (Luhansk).

[zraver]

Remember this turned public opinion when we saw villages in the Balkans shelled live on the nightly national news. It lead to the US intervention (I remember BG Pat O'Neal, ADC-S, 1st Armored Division walking across the float bridge over the Save River. I was one of his battle staff when he was G-3 of the 24th ID AT FT Stewart in 88-89.). Further massacres also led to our air war to free Kosovo.

As for the economy, I saw a point today that the GDP of NY State was larger than the GDP of Russia. If the US can get sactions using the SWIFT that will really hurt. And the EU & NATO are much more united than back in 2014 when it was considered upon Russia taking Crimea.

Pretty sure I was listening to a report earlier that SWIFT sanctions or sanctioning energy was a no go with the Europeans.

[Chunder]

Pretty sure I was listening to a report earlier that SWIFT sanctions or sanctioning energy was a no go with the Europeans.

No offence to the Europeans, but the Eagles are squawking.

[Officer of Engineers]

No one is going to commit economic suicide for Kiev.

[zraver]

No offence to the Europeans, but the Eagles are squawking.

Russia to Europe: sanction us and your economy gets crushed.

Ukraine to Europe. If Russia invades we are blowing the pipeline.

Europe (hostage to Russian energy passing through Ukraine): Can you please just get along.

Eagles are squawking, but that's all it is, is noise.

[NUS]

Russia to Europe: sanction us and your economy gets crushed.

Ukraine to Europe. If Russia invades we are blowing the pipeline.

Europe (hostage to Russian energy passing through Ukraine): Can you please just get along.

No. Ukrainian pipeline only transferred around 40 bil m3 in 2021. Nord Stream 2 alone is 55. The only resource Kiev has is war.

[zraver]

No. Ukrainian pipeline only transferred around 40 bil m3 in 2021. Nord Stream 2 alone is 55. The only resource Kiev has is war.

It's not only about volume. It's also where those pipelines end up, how hard it is for energy to be transferred from other areas that don't get cut off, total aggregate transport capacity, modes of payment and price disruption.

Europe is not going to nuke it's economy for Ukraine and everyone knows the Quisling Biden administration that declared it's sole forgiven policy direction being only with allies never alone will not impose truly harsh sanctions that impact the EU.

So the only way for Ukraine to get real western support is too say your economy is going down no matter whose side you pick, so stop Putin before it's too late.

[Albany Rifles]

Pretty sure I was listening to a report earlier that SWIFT sanctions or sanctioning energy was a no go with the Europeans.

That was several days ago. Since the meeting in Munich I wouldn't be surprised if the mood has shifted. Also PM Johnson announced the Russians would not be allowed to trade in pounds or dollars globally. That is a big hit to their oil incomes.

[Officer of Engineers]

Ukraine is a lost cause or more precisely, we can't help a bunch of idiotic, woe-be-me, over-inflated ego, dumb as rocks, bent-over Putin please fuck me, ************s that there are. Zelensky this weekend pretty well pissed of NATO with his grandstanding and gave Putin his red line.

Ukraine is the shield against the toughest army on earth, having held back the Russians for over 5 years. If that were the case, how the hell is Russia capable of marching to Kiev in 72 hours? Why are you begging for NATO help now? Why are you not mobilized? Yes, NATO, please send us weapons? Where are your crews? What happened to the instructors that we trained? Why aren't they manning your schools to teach your army how to use our stuff? The one SOF battalion that met NATO standards is assigned to EUROCORPS, not Kiev. You pissed away our help for 6 years and it's our fault you can't defend yourselves?

And what the hell is wrong with your stuff? Your stuff killed Israeli tanks. They can handle T-72s.

Sanction NORD STREAM 2 now (so the Russians won't have a choice but to pay us to transport gas to Europe).

Zelensky want a timeline and roadmap to joining NATO (never mind Kiev already got all the knowledge and the criteria since the late 1990s and done squat all to meet them). Never mind that this is Putin's casus belli. Zelensky is willing to discuss a ceasefire, never mind the LNR and DNR mobilized. We've been screaming for months to get ready and this is the best you can do? If you poke the bear (asking for NATO membership timeline), don't lay down with your throat to the freaking sky (asking for a ceasefire with Putin).

I can't believe this stupidity.