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  • Originally posted by rj1 View Post


    I appreciate the Russians' efforts trying to make the world look like the Diplomacy game map where Ukraine has no access to the Black Sea.

    Per a Georgian's translation, the above is from Russian TV of "Proposal of Division for Ukraine" compared to pre-2014. Nice of the Russians to be friendly to Poland and give them bits of western Ukraine. :D

    I think this post from a few days back sheds some light.
    “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
    Mark Twain

    Comment


    • Russian recognition of breakaway regions in Ukraine would be 'attack without weapons' -France

      PARIS (Reuters) - France's foreign minister said on Tuesday that if Moscow recognised two Russian-backed breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine as independent it would be an "attack without weapons".

      Russia's lower house of parliament voted earlier on Tuesday to ask President Vladimir Putin to recognise the self-declared Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics, in the area known as the Donbass, where separatist forces have been fighting the Ukrainian army since 2014.

      "If this were applied then it would be an impossible situation and would be a sort of attack without weapons. It would be in violation of Ukraine's sovereignty," Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian told a parliamentary hearing.

      France, alongside Germany, Russia and Ukraine, form the so-called Normandy group, which was created to end the conflict in eastern Ukraine.

      The conflict is part of a wider crisis, with the United States warning that Russia may attack Ukraine at any time with a force of more than 100,000 troops massed near its borders. Russia denies any such plan and accuses the West of hysteria.

      The Kremlin said on Tuesday some of its troops were returning to base after exercises near Ukraine and it mocked Western warnings about a looming invasion, but NATO and the United States said they had yet to see any evidence of a de-escalation that could avert war.
      ________
      “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

      Comment


      • Russia 'likely' to launch 'limited' military attack against Ukraine, says Estonian intelligence

        Feb 16 (Reuters) - Russia is continuing to move troops to the Ukrainian border and will likely launch a "limited" military attack against the country, the head of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service said on Wednesday.

        The attack would include missile bombardment and the occupation of "key terrain" in Ukraine, said Mikk Marran, director general of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service.

        "Right now, our assessment is that they would avoid cities with large populations, as it takes a lot of troops to control those areas. But there is no clear understanding of what avenue the Russian troops might exploit," he told a media briefing held to introduce the service's annual report.

        Another possibility could be intensified fighting out of the two Russian-backed breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine, according to Estonian intelligence. Such escalation is "highly likely," and this way “Russia likely gets plausible deniability and avoids sanctions,” said Marran.

        “If Russia is successful in Ukraine, it would encourage it to increase pressure on the Baltics in the coming years," he said. “The threat of war has become main policy tool for Putin.”


        Estonian intelligence is aware of approximately 10 battle groups of Russian troops moving toward the Ukrainian border, where 100 Russian military battle groups, or about 170,000 soldiers, are already deployed, the intelligence chief said.

        The numbers include soldiers usually deployed in regions around Ukraine, but also troops in Belarus which Russia sent for a military exercise near Ukrainian border.

        Some of the soldiers are likely to stay in Belarus beyond the Feb. 20 end of the exercise, a significant worry for the NATO alliance which the Baltics belong to, said Marran. "That would reduce preparation time for an attack against the Baltics.”
        __________
        “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

        Comment


        • Originally posted by rj1 View Post

          Russia in 2008 by fact took a third of the territory of the state of Georgia away (Abkhazia, South Ossetia) in a brief conflict, they did nothing. Russia annexed Crimea bloodlessly in 2014, they did nothing. That was followed up with an eastern oblast rebellion to "secede" from Ukraine that's still going on, they did nothing. In Syria, the idea it's a sovereign state with control of its borders is a fantasy. There's land controlled by Hezbollah as an Iranian-backed vassal and there's land controlled by rebels as a Saudi-backed vassal. The Assad government only controls half the land. They famously did nothing in spite of wanting regime change and it blew up in their face. In fact, a NATO country has even taken over administration of the northern territory of the country. Although they've not been gauche enough to say they've annexed it, in real world practical terms, they have: they're putting in place their mayors, they're funding the costs of government administration.
          Two points in the the case Georgia, geography made intervention by the US or its allies strategically difficult and secondly Georgia was far away and sadly no-body cared enough to intervene. (That was back in the days when everybody still hoped Putin would 'play the game by the rules' naive as that may seem now.) As I've already noted all nations and alliances do risk/reward calculations. The risks of intervention in Georgia far outweighed the rewards - for the West. Syria is a failed state - same rules apply, although the US has in effect created a quasi independent Kurdish State there and in Iraq as well. However none of those States' have any international recognition and are highly unstable, they can all collapse at any moment..

          Originally posted by rj1 View Post
          The post-World War II era of geopolitics of borders are sacrosanct/we don't do wars for territory is dead. The fact no one in this crisis has even mentioned the United Nations to pay their Charter simple lip service is telling. I'm just waiting for China and other states (the Turkeys, Pakistans, Indonesias, etc. of the world) to get in on the game the Russians are doing. We already had this low-level territory conflict in 2020 in Artsakh done by Azerbaijan that most of the polite world ignored because they don't officially recognize Artsakh, they recognize that land as Azerbaijani, meaning they can't say anything about what the Azerbaijanis did other than "we wish for peace and continued collaboration between the two sides".
          Again risk and reward. Plus the fact the States you mentioned with the exception of Turkey and China don't have the military capacity to take on large scale campaigns of military expansion. As for Azerbaijan? They and Armenia have been in a more or less permanent state of hostilities over borders since Armenia seized territory from them in the late 80s/early 90's and then Azerbaijan took them back (plus a little more?) recently. Turkish" The economy is in crisis, heading into Wiemar Republic territory courtesy of Erdogan. China? Undoubtedly would and still may. But historically incursions into Vietnam have never gone well/lasted long. And geography somewhat constrains it that and both Russian and American military power. It could expand into the Stans but again risk and reward, what does it gain except space on a map.

          The point that may have escaped you is that the days of conquering territory 'for profit' i.e where the resources gained exceed the cost of waging war have long since passed. The were passing at the end of the 19th century and its only gotten worse with every successive war since. Vietnam, Afghanistan (for both Russia and the West) Iraq? None of them were worth the money let alone the blood spent on them. The only exception to this rule being if you can establish a stable economically self sustaining State from the ruble of your conquests. As stat that remains more or less permanent under your influence if not control without causing any further serious problems for you. The last time that was achieved was the Marshal Plan and look at the cost of the war it was designed to never let happen again.
          If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

          Comment


          • The fact no one in this crisis has even mentioned the United Nations to pay their Charter simple lip service is telling.

            Missed this yesterday.

            Know why the UN has done nothing about things?

            Do you know who holds the Security Council Presidency this month?

            That's right...Russia.

            Russia learned its lesson from Korea. When they were boycotting the UN in 1950 the West pushed through the UN Intervention in Korea after the Norks invaded the ROK. They won't be doing THAT again.

            As I recall a news report in January asking and answering this question that the UN was going to be impotent in February this year because of who held the Presidency.

            The UAE picks it up in March so we may see some movement then.
            “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
            Mark Twain

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Albany Rifles View Post
              The fact no one in this crisis has even mentioned the United Nations to pay their Charter simple lip service is telling.

              Missed this yesterday.

              Know why the UN has done nothing about things?

              Do you know who holds the Security Council Presidency this month?

              That's right...Russia.

              Russia learned its lesson from Korea. When they were boycotting the UN in 1950 the West pushed through the UN Intervention in Korea after the Norks invaded the ROK. They won't be doing THAT again.

              As I recall a news report in January asking and answering this question that the UN was going to be impotent in February this year because of who held the Presidency.
              I know the UN are impotent as it comes to Russia, China. (U.S. as well for that matter). But this is as blunt a violation of the Charter as you could ever ask for, and Biden nor anyone else does not even mention that to strengthen their argument. 25 years ago, we would've held the Security Council vote and forced the Russians to veto.

              Article 2, Section 4:

              All Members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, or in any other matter inconsistent with the Purposes of the United Nations.
              There's parts of the UN that just don't apply to how the world works, too idealist, world changes, etc. Territorial sovereignty has stood the test of time post-World War II pretty well. The border changes have largely been civil wars or states splintering apart. And in the instance of Kuwait, an oil state in the Middle East otherwise irrelevant, everyone formed a coalition to reverse a hostile annexation. This is the most about face challenge to a principle that has largely held together for 75 years. We're in the middle of a multi-year process making it fair game for everyone and all they need is a Russian or Chinese veto. Hell, a NATO member country is in on the game in Northern Syria.

              The UAE picks it up in March so we may see some movement then.
              The same UAE that were reportedly in cahoots with Saudi Arabia late in plans to invade Qatar in 2017/18 until Tillerson quashed it? That's a tad hypocritical.

              The Security Council Presidency in January was held by Norway.
              Last edited by rj1; 17 Feb 22,, 15:35.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by rj1 View Post

                I know the UN are impotent as it comes to Russia, China. (U.S. as well for that matter). But this is as blunt a violation of the Charter as you could ever ask for, and Biden nor anyone else does not even mention that to strengthen their argument. 25 years ago, we would've held the Security Council vote and forced the Russians to veto.

                Article 2, Section 4:



                There's parts of the UN that just don't apply to how the world works, too idealist, world changes, etc. Territorial sovereignty has stood the test of time post-World War II pretty well. The border changes have largely been civil wars or states splintering apart. And in the instance of Kuwait, an oil state in the Middle East otherwise irrelevant, everyone formed a coalition to reverse a hostile annexation. This is the most about face challenge to a principle that has largely held together for 75 years. We're in the middle of a multi-year process making it fair game for everyone and all they need is a Russian or Chinese veto. Hell, a NATO member country is in on the game in Northern Syria.



                The same UAE that were reportedly in cahoots with Saudi Arabia late in plans to invade Qatar in 2017/18 until Tillerson quashed it? That's a tad hypocritical.

                The Security Council Presidency in January was held by Norway.
                Oh I agree but when it comes to Europe the Europeans and the US look first to NATO, then the EU & the OSCE. The UN hardly gets a mention. The last time the US went to the UN how did that go for us...Operation Iraqi Freedom was the result with much of the world against us. Again, in post-9/11, it was NATO under Article 5 who came to the front to assist the US.

                The UN has been more a way to deal with issues within the Third World...so much more today is worked through regional treaty organizations.

                And for domestic US politics working with the UN will work across the aisle for Democrats and Republicans. If we go through the UN for support there is less a likelihood the GOP will support actions from that point.
                “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
                Mark Twain

                Comment


                • Putin is 'enjoying himself' with military build-up, Estonian premier says

                  BRUSSELS, Feb 17 (Reuters) - Estonia's prime minister said on Thursday that Russian President Vladimir Putin is enjoying the international attention generated by Russia's massive military drills on Ukraine's borders and is looking for a successful war to lift support at home.

                  Speaking to Reuters, Kaja Kallas also said the situation was extremely grave and that Moscow must not be given any kind of concessions as long as it maintained more than 100,000 troops near Ukraine. It would be a negotiation at gunpoint, she said.

                  "I think he is clearly enjoying himself, being at the centre of attention in the West, because there were years when he was maybe somewhat overlooked," Kallas said before a meeting of EU leaders in Brussels to discuss the crisis.

                  "But now, with the different Western leaders visiting him, everybody constantly speculating what he's thinking or what he might do ... this is making him definitely very important," she said of the man who has dominated Russia since 2000.

                  Putin's separate meetings with the French and German leaders at a glistening table six meters (20 ft) long have been broadcast around the world. On Wednesday, Brazil's President Jair Bolsonaro flew to Moscow for talks with Putin, and he has had several telephone calls with U.S. President Joe Biden.

                  The Kremlin has denied any plan to invade Ukraine and says troop movements within its own borders and demands for security guarantees from the United States and NATO are legitimate responses to Western aggression.

                  Kallas mused that the Russian troop build-up could be, in part, designed as a distraction from domestic pressures. Putin has come under scrutiny at home over Moscow's handling of the pandemic with more than 700,000 COVID-19 deaths in Russia, according to Reuters calculations based on state statistics, and only half the population vaccinated.

                  "When the popularity goes down, then you need a successful war to boost the support. So that is also something that Russia or Russian administration has used before," Kallas said. "So I think these things are definitely related."

                  Moscow has sought guarantees that Ukraine, a former Soviet republic, never be allowed to join NATO, a demand which has been rejected by the alliance as running counter to a country's freedom of choice, although it has said membership is a distant prospect.

                  Kallas said Putin was trying to reassert Russia as a global power, noting that he saw the break-up of the Soviet Union in 1991 as the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the last century.

                  "The only one who can de-escalate is Russia. Russia has created this situation and can also take a step back," she said.

                  "I'm very cautious of any kind of negotiations, of offering Russia something because we shouldn't forget the big picture, which is that the gun is pointed at Ukraine really and you can't have negotiations at gunpoint," she said.
                  ________
                  “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

                  Comment


                  • Is this Ukraine's Gliewitz Incident?

                    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...rt-2022-02-17/

                    Ukraine, Russia-backed rebels trade accusations of shelling across front


                    Reuters


                    3 minute read






                    1/2

                    An exterior view shows a kindergarten, which according to Ukraine's military officials was damaged by shelling, in Stanytsia Luhanska in the Luhansk region, Ukraine, in this handout picture released February 17, 2022. Press Service of the Joint Forces Operation/Handout via REUTERS

                    KADIIVKA, Ukraine, Feb 17 (Reuters) - Russian-backed rebels and Ukrainian forces traded accusations on Thursday that each had fired across the ceasefire line in eastern Ukraine, raising alarm at a time when Western countries have warned of the possibility of a Russian invasion any day.

                    The details of the incidents could not be independently confirmed, and the initial reports suggested they were on a similar scale to ceasefire violations that have been common throughout the eight year conflict.

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                    But they come at a time of global concern over the prospect of a wider war, with more than 100,000 Russian troops near the Ukrainian frontier. Moscow denies it is planning an invasion and has said this week it is pulling back some troops, though Western countries say they are not convinced.

                    The separatists accused government forces of opening fire on their territory four times in the past 24 hours, while Ukraine accused the rebels of firing shells, including some that struck a kindergarten, causing shell-shock to two civilians.

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                    A Reuters photographer in the town of Kadiivka in Ukraine's rebel-held Luhansk region heard the sound of some artillery fire from the direction of the line of contact but was not immediately able to assess the details of the incident.

                    Kyiv and its Western allies have repeatedly said in recent weeks that they believe Moscow could use an incident in the separatist conflict as justification for an invasion. Russia, for its part, has accused Kyiv of trying to provoke an escalation to recapture rebel territory by force.

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                    A diplomatic source said a longstanding monitoring mission from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe had recorded multiple shelling incidents along the line of contact in the early hours of Thursday.

                    Since a 2015 ceasefire brought an end to major combat in the separatist conflict, the OSCE has typically reported dozens of ceasefire violations each day, with significant shelling or clashes leading to injuries or death several times a month.

                    The self-proclaimed Luhansk People's Republic, one of two rebel regions, said Ukrainian forces had used mortars, grenade launchers and a machine gun in four separate incidents on Thursday.

                    "Armed forces of Ukraine have crudely violated the ceasefire regime, using heavy weapons, which, according to the Minsk agreements, should be withdrawn," the separatists said in a statement.

                    Referring to the rebels, Ukraine's military said: "With particular cynicism, the Russian occupation troops shelled the village of Stanytsa Lugansk in the Luhansk region. As a result of the use of heavy artillery weapons by terrorists, shells hit the kindergarten building. According to preliminary data, two civilians received shell shock."

                    Russia's lower house of parliament voted on Tuesday to ask President Vladimir Putin to recognise the two self-proclaimed separatist republics as independent. read more

                    The Kremlin has signalled Putin has no immediate plans to do so.
                    “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
                    Mark Twain

                    Comment


                    • Institute For the Study Of War has done a synopsis of the Russian reply. If accurate, it's not good. There seems little opportunity for meaningful diplomacy. Largely, we can capitulate. That would be helpful in Russia's view-

                      https://www.understandingwar.org/sit...s%20Update.pdf
                      "This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski
                      "The only true currency in this bankrupt world is what you share with someone else when you're uncool." Lester Bangs

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by rj1 View Post
                        I know the UN are impotent as it comes to Russia, China. (U.S. as well for that matter). But this is as blunt a violation of the Charter as you could ever ask for, and Biden nor anyone else does not even mention that to strengthen their argument. 25 years ago, we would've held the Security Council vote and forced the Russians to veto.
                        No, we didn't. We did not get that far. The Soviets vetoed a draft resolution (for their invasion of Afghanistan) before it even got to a vote.

                        Originally posted by rj1 View Post
                        There's parts of the UN that just don't apply to how the world works, too idealist, world changes, etc. Territorial sovereignty has stood the test of time post-World War II pretty well. The border changes have largely been civil wars or states splintering apart. And in the instance of Kuwait, an oil state in the Middle East otherwise irrelevant, everyone formed a coalition to reverse a hostile annexation. This is the most about face challenge to a principle that has largely held together for 75 years. We're in the middle of a multi-year process making it fair game for everyone and all they need is a Russian or Chinese veto. Hell, a NATO member country is in on the game in Northern Syria.
                        Oh get off it. In my lifetime, Czechoslavkia, Grenada, Israeli-Arab, Vietnam War, Invasion of Cambodia, Vietnam-Cambodia, Sino-Vietnam, Sino-Soviet, Falklands (although only for a few months), Chili-Argentina, Namibia, and I couldn't tell you what how many times borders of the largest war since WWII in Africa has been drawn, redrawn, ignored, claimed, expelled, whatever. And those were only the hot wars the UN completely ignored. Let's not ignored the fact not only the Warsaw Pact and us threatened our mutual borders, we threatened each other with annhilation and the UN was allowed to do squat all by us and the Soviets. And you cannot be that young to not know that we, NATO, forcibly seperated Kosovo from Serbia and defacto created Kurdistan from Syria and Iraq. These things happen because it was in our strategic interest to do so but let's not pretend that UN was a collection of angels instead of the clusterfucks that they were and are.

                        And you think this is the worst the UN has failed? Ther UN has failed in FOUR GENOCIDES! COUNT THEM - FOUR GENOCIDES. Cambodia, Congo, Rwanda, and Uganda.

                        The only place the UN is of any help is humanitarian relief and education and even that is now under attack. Girls are not allowed to learn that 1+1=2.
                        Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 18 Feb 22,, 11:16.
                        Chimo

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                          No, we didn't. We did not get that far. The Soviets vetoed a draft resolution (for their invasion of Afghanistan) before it even got to a vote.

                          Oh get off it. In my lifetime, Czechoslavkia, Grenada, Israeli-Arab, Vietnam War, Invasion of Cambodia, Vietnam-Cambodia, Sino-Vietnam, Sino-Soviet, Falklands (although only for a few months), Chili-Argentina, Namibia, and I couldn't tell you what how many times borders of the largest war since WWII in Africa has been drawn, redrawn, ignored, claimed, expelled, whatever. And those were only the hot wars the UN completely ignored. Let's not ignored the fact not only the Warsaw Pact and us threatened our mutual borders, we threatened each other with annhilation and the UN was allowed to do squat all by us and the Soviets. And you cannot be that young to not know that we, NATO, forcibly seperated Kosovo from Serbia and defacto created Kurdistan from Syria and Iraq. These things happen because it was in our strategic interest to do so but let's not pretend that UN was a collection of angels instead of the clusterfucks that they were and are.

                          And you think this is the worst the UN has failed? Ther UN has failed in FOUR GENOCIDES! COUNT THEM - FOUR GENOCIDES. Cambodia, Congo, Rwanda, and Uganda.

                          The only place the UN is of any help is humanitarian relief and education and even that is now under attack. Girls are not allowed to learn that 1+1=2.
                          Also recall it took one suicide bomber to get the UN to bail out on Iraq.

                          Somalia isn't exactly a shining example of US success. Most of the places the UN have been successful is in peace keeping and not peace making.
                          “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
                          Mark Twain

                          Comment


                          • SACEUR has asked allies to increase readiness for a possible NRF deployment.

                            The vast majority of NRF are currently German troops (about 16,800 out of 25,000 - primarily IFFG, not VJTF) since January (and until 2024), and Germany today began establishing alert levels in line with the above request. NRF VJTF, i.e. primarily FR components of D/F Brigade, are at NTM 2 days.

                            This is in addition to and separate from German OTH reserves for deployed EFP forces already receiving notice to move February 9th.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by kato View Post
                              SACEUR has asked allies to increase readiness for a possible NRF deployment.

                              The vast majority of NRF are currently German troops (about 16,800 out of 25,000 - primarily IFFG, not VJTF) since January (and until 2024), and Germany today began establishing alert levels in line with the above request. NRF VJTF, i.e. primarily FR components of D/F Brigade, are at NTM 2 days.

                              This is in addition to and separate from German OTH reserves for deployed EFP forces already receiving notice to move February 9th.
                              As I said...can we please calm down so I can retire next year?!?!?!?!?
                              “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
                              Mark Twain

                              Comment


                              • https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...rders-us-warns

                                By God, that's half of their active ground forces if I'm not mistaken.
                                "Draft beer, not people."

                                Comment

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