2022-2023 Russo-Ukrainian War

[Amled]

You really have to wonder about the mind set of Russian talking heads; both media and official spokespersons.
For over a year of war, we have been inundated with their condemnations of the aid that has flowed into Ukraine to combat Russian aggression!
Now said heads have found a new target!
Again for over a year Ukrainian cities across the length and breadth of the country have been targeted by Russian bombs and missiles. *
So what happens when a few Russian buildings have been targeted? They immediately denounce it as a “terrorist action”!
Like the bully mentality they encapsulate: they can dish it out, but when it is reciprocated, they cry foul!

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65751632

Statement by Putin: "…They are provoking us into responding in kind,…"

It does seem to me that you have been “replying in kind”, since the start of the war!

[astralis]

Astralis,

Looking for a link, please? Thanks and please delete this post once accomplished. I'm gonna guess-

What The Ukraine Army Must Do To Win-War On The Rocks June 2, 2023

And you have the advantage over my blindness!

[S2]

"…They are provoking us into responding in kind,…" Vladimir Putin

"By recognizing that the question of NATO enlargement is at the center of this war, we understand why U.S. weaponry will not end this war. Only diplomatic efforts can do that...There were in fact two main U.S. provocations. The first was the U.S. intention to expand NATO to Ukraine and Georgia in order to surround Russia in the Black Sea region by NATO countries (Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey, and Georgia, in counterclockwise order). The second was the U.S. role in installing a Russophobic regime in Ukraine by the violent overthrow of Ukraine’s pro-Russian President, Viktor Yanukovych, in February 2014."

The War In Ukraine Was Provoked-And Why That Matters To Achieve Peace- Common Dreams May 23, 2023 Jeffrey D Sachs

By ignoring the central role played by national self-determination we, willfully or unwittingly, assist the Kremlin's dis-information campaign- S2

I'm astounded that this uniquely obtuse perspective can exist (even thrive) in serious academia. Dude should be smacked silly by his peers.

[Amled]

...The War In Ukraine Was Provoked-And Why That Matters To Achieve Peace- Common Dreams May 23, 2023 Jeffrey D Sachs...

Sure, go ahead blame the victim!
Reminiscent of having a perpetrator standing in a mass of bodies, waving a bloody knife, screeching:” Look what you made me do”!
Except here it’s a very learned and erudite apologist for the perp doing the screeching: “Look at what you made him do”!

[S2]

This is too good- Wagner forces yesterday captured, detained and beat the brigade commander of the Russian 72nd Motor Rifle Brigade, Lt. Col. Roman Venevitin. He evidently commanded a brigade adjacent to Wagner in the Bakhmut area.

Wagner Video of Captured Russian Colonel

He is accused of drunkenly firing upon and disarming, with the assistance of 10-12 subordinates and an entire motor rifle company, a Wagner fast response crew.

The question becomes, "How did he go from captor to captive? Especially w/ 10-12 subordinates and a motor rifle company as backup? And how could his capture occur without bloodshed, or did a fight go down between Wagner and the Russian Army?" Those thoughts are only the most ephemeral. There's SO MUCH more implied by this event. Holy crap but it sucks to be Russian.

[Red Team]

Some Belorussian sources on Twitter stating that Lukashenko's recent health problems the result of a terminal blood condition. Anyone have more information on this?

[statquo]

Russia says it thwarted major Ukrainian offensive

Russia's defence ministry says it has thwarted a major Ukrainian offensive and killed 250 Ukrainian troops.

There has been no comment from Kyiv and the Russian claim has not been independently verified.

The ministry said Ukraine had launched the offensive in the Donetsk region on Sunday using six mechanised and two tank battalions.

A Ukrainian counter-offensive has been promised, but on Sunday, Kyiv called for silence ahead of the operation.

It is as yet unclear whether the alleged attacks indicate that the offensive to recapture Ukrainian land from Russian forces has started.

"On the morning of 4 June, the enemy launched a large-scale offensive in five sectors of the front in the South Donetsk direction," the Russian defence ministry said on Telegram.

The ministry said the Ukrainians tried to break through Russian defences in what Kyiv saw as the most vulnerable part of the frontline.

"The enemy did not achieve its tasks, it had no success."

Video posted showed military vehicles being attacked from the air. Moscow claimed Ukraine had lost 250 troops as well as 16 tanks.

————————————

Haven’t seen anything independent confirming or not confirming this. Hoping it’s just typical Russian BS.

Any educated guesses on where the UA counteroffensive(s) will take place?

[Monash]

Haven't seen anything independent confirming or not confirming this. Hoping it’s just typical Russian BS.

Any educated guesses on where the UA counteroffensive(s) will take place?

Zero confirmation of this on any of the news sources I follow, just repeats of the Russian claims. What is significant (I think) is that there are no follow up reports of continued significant continued fighting either in Donetsk where the incident is alleged to have happened for anywhere else along the line the confrontation line. So I don't see any sign (yet) of a major offensive operation. And lets face it, if there was one it shuld be kind of hard to miss! That being the case my (lay persons) opinion? Assuming no further reports emerge of large scale, ongoing Ukrainian attacks in the few hours I find it difficult to believe that the the critical military offensive of 2023 would be called off on day one at the first sign of a setback! So, absent further information I'm calling BS on Russia's claim of a 'major offensive'.

As to the question of when? I've been expecting it since early May and the ground certainly isn't going to get drier in southern Ukraine than it is now! If I had to guess I'd put my money on the being caused by Ukraine wanting to build up as large a reserve as possible of Storm Shadow and other long range munitions as they can because the scheduled arrival of other stuff like tanks and armored vehicles etc that Ukraine is expecting soon aren't going to make that much of a difference to the total numbers they already have available. Long range air and ground attack munitions on the other hand are the one area I can see where Ukraine has a critical shortage. Given Russia has pulled back its storage depots and HQs etc out of HIMARS range having as large a stockpile of those will make a HUGE difference to the success of their offensive.

[statquo]

Zero confirmation of this on any of the news sources I follow, just repeats of the Russian claims. What is significant (I think) is that there are no follow up reports of continued significant continued fighting either in Donetsk where the incident is alleged to have happened for anywhere else along the line the confrontation line. So I don't see any sign (yet) of a major offensive operation. And lets face it, if there was one it shuld be kind of hard to miss! That being the case my (lay persons) opinion? Assuming no further reports emerge of large scale, ongoing Ukrainian attacks in the few hours I find it difficult to believe that the the critical military offensive of 2023 would be called off on day one at the first sign of a setback! So, absent further information I'm calling BS on Russia's claim of a 'major offensive'.

As to the question of when? I've been expecting it since early May and the ground certainly isn't going to get drier in southern Ukraine than it is now! If I had to guess I'd put my money on the being caused by Ukraine wanting to build up as large a reserve as possible of Storm Shadow and other long range munitions as they can because the scheduled arrival of other stuff like tanks and armored vehicles etc that Ukraine is expecting soon aren't going to make that much of a difference to the total numbers they already have available. Long range air and ground attack munitions on the other hand are the one area I can see where Ukraine has a critical shortage. Given Russia has pulled back its storage depots and HQs etc out of HIMARS range having as large a stockpile of those will make a HUGE difference to the success of their offensive.

The major media is reporting it but just the Russian Defense ministry statements which I found unusual.

Not when, but where is it going to happen? Many analysts have been predicting that it probably will be multi pronged along different fronts. Kherson, to Melitopol, to Mariupol, through Luhansk? What makes the most sense? What’s your prediction?

[tbm3fan]

Russia says it thwarted major Ukrainian offensive

Russia's defence ministry says it has thwarted a major Ukrainian offensive and killed 250 Ukrainian troops.

There has been no comment from Kyiv and the Russian claim has not been independently verified.

The ministry said Ukraine had launched the offensive in the Donetsk region on Sunday using six mechanised and two tank battalions.

A Ukrainian counter-offensive has been promised, but on Sunday, Kyiv called for silence ahead of the operation.

It is as yet unclear whether the alleged attacks indicate that the offensive to recapture Ukrainian land from Russian forces has started.

"On the morning of 4 June, the enemy launched a large-scale offensive in five sectors of the front in the South Donetsk direction," the Russian defence ministry said on Telegram.

The ministry said the Ukrainians tried to break through Russian defences in what Kyiv saw as the most vulnerable part of the frontline.

"The enemy did not achieve its tasks, it had no success."

Video posted showed military vehicles being attacked from the air. Moscow claimed Ukraine had lost 250 troops as well as 16 tanks.

————————————

Haven’t seen anything independent confirming or not confirming this. Hoping it’s just typical Russian BS.

Any educated guesses on where the UA counteroffensive(s) will take place?

Typical of the Russians. We send new equipment over, they say don't do it, then amazingly it is all destroyed before it even arrives and there is no video. This is the same thing as in there is a counter offensive, we are ready, we have destroyed yada, yada, yada and there is no video of them in action. Bull crap and so predictable.

[Monash]

The major media is reporting it but just the Russian Defense ministry statements which I found unusual.

Not when, but where is it going to happen? Many analysts have been predicting that it probably will be multi pronged along different fronts. Kherson, to Melitopol, to Mariupol, through Luhansk? What makes the most sense? What’s your prediction?

Looking into my (ever so reliable - not) crystal ball Ukraine has spend many months building up a significant strike force for this offensive but the sheer length of the confrontation line limits its ability to go all 'Operation Barbarossa' on Russia. They simply don't have the manpower, armor and munitions etc to launch multiple strong offensives along most of it's length. So as I see it they can choose one section of the front and either launch a single large offensive or alternately a smaller number of 'mini' offensives along that same section. (And if multiple attacks are chosen all will be close enough together so that each can support at least one of its neighbors). Beyond that? Perhaps one good feint designed to distract the Russians for 24 hours or so.

The other point is the distance they need to advance (the amount of ground they need to take). The big plus here for Ukraine is that if the goal of their offensive is limited to splitting Russian forces in half and cutting their supply lines from Russia over land they don't have to advance that far or capture that much ground to do it. In most places an advance of say 40K or so will either directly sever the essential road and rail links back east to Russia or put them well within range of Ukrainian artillery. Based on what I've read the Ukrainians do have the troops etc to take a wedge of territory at least say 50 K wide by 40K deep and then hold it. The question is can they break through the physical defenses Russia has been building to reach that deeply. Of course the cherry on top would be taking out a certain bridge at the same time.

If Ukraine can split the Russian lines in two and hold on to their gains they will have justified NATOs and other allies trust and delivered a serious blow to Putin. At least serious enough to get continued support for further planned offensives. But who knows. Maybe the Ukrainians are planning on being even more ambitious. Your guess is as good as mine.

[Bigfella]

By ignoring the central role played by national self-determination we, willfully or unwittingly, assist the Kremlin's dis-information campaign- S2

I'm astounded that this uniquely obtuse perspective can exist (even thrive) in serious academia. Dude should be smacked silly by his peers.

Sadly this sort of thing is all too common across the political/ideological spectrum of analysis. The idea that international politics is all about small groups of (mainly) Western (mainly) men deciding everything for everyone has deep roots. The main point of disagreement is not 'is this actually happening' but 'is this good or bad'. Its like some people's view of the world stopped evolving during WW1 - maps & chaps. I recently heard the highly praised but disappointingly shallow analysis of self-styled 'realist' (now there's a big flashing light) John Mearsheimer critiqued as 'the view from 20,000 feet'. It is a neat way to describe the way these people just handwave away the details of the people & places they talk about in favour of a supposedly 'detached' view. It is very appealing to people who like simple worldviews.

If there is any positive to come out of this whole awful business it is that this sort of thinking is really exposing the intellectual vacuum at its heart. I have seen more left wing critiques of the vile Chomsky in the past 18 months than I had in the previous 18 years. People I knew who were deep in the Chomsky cult have finally woken up. Other Putin apologists are also being seen for what they always were. Not all, but many. I'm not optimistic enough to think this will lead to some golden age of sane, sensible, fact driven analysis, but no barrel gets worse by the removal of some bad apples.

[Zad Fnark]

[jlvfr]

"Be wery quiet, we are wunting wabbits"

[Albany Rifles]

Any educated guesses on where the UA counteroffensive(s) will take place?

At a time and place which should not be discussed in public forums. OSINT can be a big help for intelligence communities.