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2022-2023 Russo-Ukrainian War

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  • Both before and during the war, Russia was undoubtedly looking for ways to introduce indecisiveness amongst NATO’s ranks.
    Well, they were unsuccessful! NATO members are apparently fully capable of manufacturing their own!
    This at a time when unity should be at the forefront!
    They must be rolling on the floor laughing in the Kremlin!!!
    Sure as hell TASS and the rest of the Sov…(ups sorry!) Russian propaganda machinery will play the story for all it’s worth.
    TASS is already all over it, here’s an example:


    After Germany sent its tanks to Russia last time, Russian tanks entered Berlin …
    https://tass.com/world/1564755

    This war is apparently going to be bad enough,
    do “The-Powers-That-Are” really have to supply the enemy with extra ammunition!!!


    When we blindly adopt a religion, a political system, a literary dogma, we become automatons. We cease to grow. - Anais Nin

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    • From the Daily Kos-

      "...It’s as if the entire Western world were an insurance adjuster who steps into a hospital room where surgery is desperately needed to offer either aspirin or a nice vat of medical leeches. But that modern surgery, the one that might help? That you cannot have.

      This draw a line, erase a line, draw a new line frustration has been going on so long that I’m certain you’re tired of reading about it. I’m absolutely tired of writing about it. And neither of us is dying because of it. Ukrainians are.

      As we’ve talked about in these updates endlessly, there are reasons to not do what’s threatening to happen now: Flood Ukraine with the sweepings of every military barn in Europe and the United States, leaving them with a hodge podge of has-beens, the effectiveness of which is questionable and the logistical challenge of which is supra-Everest. It’s exciting to see the announcements rolling out almost by the hour this week and to chart the growing list of hardware soon to roll along a rail line from Lviv. But for some of those in the Ukrainian military, it must look like the pieces of a dozen unconnected jigsaw puzzles, all being shoved their way with expectations of gratitude.

      They really can’t say what they must be thinking: This looks great, but it’s not what we asked for.

      What Ukraine needs is all of the Western allies working toward a coherent strategy to provide them with a modern military that can be actually put to work in the field. If the Great Tank Standoff shows anything, it shows that Western unity doesn’t extend to providing the coherent planning and consistent response that Ukraine needs.

      Why Scholz can’t see that in refusing to release the Leopards Germany really is standing alone, I don’t know. I’m not sure anyone does. Whether the standoff ends with a relieved sigh or bitter words between allies, we’re likely to learn today.

      To complete driving Russia off its land and end the incredibly high rate of civilian and military casualties, Ukraine needs to field a modern military. That military must include tank battalions. Those tank battalions need to be headed by a vehicle that is better than the alphabet soup of T-72, T-80, and T90 models now acting as ersatz monuments to aggression in fields all over Ukraine. The Leopard 2 is a good choice to fill that role. Only it may not happen..."




      "This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski
      "The only true currency in this bankrupt world is what you share with someone else when you're uncool." Lester Bangs

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      • Originally posted by kato View Post
        Because going by public estimates like Oryx the Ukrainian army - mostly due to captures - currently already has more tanks than it did in the beginning of the war.
        Oryx capture ≠ a working, operational tank in Ukrainian service.

        Perun did a good job addressing this notion in his IFV video.

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UGZi-F3tz-o (36:52)

        1) Ukrainian losses of IFVs (and ergo tanks) may be higher than the total visually confirmed by Oryx.
        2) Not all IFVs (and ergo tanks) marked as captured by Oryx from the Russians can be assumed to be in good enough condition to put into service quickly, easily, or at all.

        And he goes on to make another point:

        3) Russia continues to enjoy a marked numerical superiority in tanks, IFVs, and artillery. They've lost a lot more than Ukraine, but had a lot more they could afford to lose in the first place.

        Making a misguided assumption that Ukraine has more tanks than they did when they started the war, because of Oryx photos, is no basis on whether to assess if Ukraine needs tanks or not. I think it's pretty apparent they're going to need more if they are to have any chance of accomplishing their goal in preventing further occupation of their territory, and liberating areas currently under Russian occupation.
        Last edited by Ironduke; 20 Jan 23,, 23:05.
        "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

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        • Originally posted by astralis View Post
          at this point, the US should provide SYMBOLIC Abrams...just enough to pressure the German government into letting the real prize, the Leopards, out to play.

          US hem and hawing over M1 maintenance/fuel issues just gives Scholz the easy out.
          I agree. Announce we'll send 100, and do it. Even if the Ukrainians were just to keep them in reserve, perhaps along unlikely axes of attack, if that's what's needed to get Germany to overcome its fears.
          "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Tarond View Post
            Threre are no US allowance necessary because there is no US technology in the Leopard 2. There are german technology in the M1.
            Doesn't change the arguement that Poland needs the US to pressure Berlin.

            Originally posted by S2 View Post
            Colonel, we're still not doing enough to help Ukraine win the war. It's really that simple...and maddening.
            I'm going to argue that this gives us time. No matter LEO IIs or M1s, the Ukrainians need time to build the logistics. Then, let's do this right. Instead of shipping tanks, let's give them an arm'd division or better yet, an arm'd corps. The Ukrainians are going to need it anyways even after the war ends. Let's build it right, including the proper NCM and Officer training.

            In fact, we're shipping everything but tanks, including tank killers. We, Canadians, are shipping 230 battle taxis. That's an entire Bde. The US dwarfs us by several factors.

            But this is piecemeal. I argue for one single coherant package. At least an armoured division with all the proper officers and NCMs. We've got the time.

            Originally posted by Ironduke View Post
            Oryx capture ≠ a working, operational tank in Ukrainian service.
            We, and the Russians, have stopped relying on ORYX long ago. Instead, we're relying on the Orders of Battle. All our intel says the Ukrainians have flushed out all their Bdes. Ukrainian Bdes are not short on tanks.
            Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 21 Jan 23,, 01:54.
            Chimo

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            • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
              We had to clear it with the Americans before we could sell F5s to Turkey.
              Do the Germans require an export license from the US to export Leopards though?

              "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

              Comment


              • I can only write about the Canadian experience. When we left our LEO Is in Afghanistan, we had to notify the Americans as well as the Germans of our intent. Canadian LEO Is were to be transferred to the Afghans.

                Edited to add: The Canadians bought 80 LEO IIs from the Netherlands. From what I can tell, only notifications to Germany was necessary for the sale.
                Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 21 Jan 23,, 09:30.
                Chimo

                Comment



                • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                  We, and the Russians, have stopped relying on ORYX long ago. Instead, we're relying on the Orders of Battle. All our intel says the Ukrainians have flushed out all their Bdes. Ukrainian Bdes are not short on tanks.
                  Thanks, that what i meant - in the sense that at the level we are talking about decisionmakers are privy to certain professional intelligence.

                  And that intelligence may be portraying the situation on the ground as (while problematic) "less dire" in some fields than the Ukrainian government portrays externally - or by their analysis certain equipment has a higher priority in other fields (artillery of course, air defense, more recently providing battle taxis and support vehicles).

                  Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                  I can only write about the Canadian experience. When we left our LEO Is in Afghanistan, we had to notify the Americans as well as the Germans of our intent. Canadian LEO Is were to be transferred to the Afghans.
                  Edited to add: The Canadians bought 80 LEO IIs from the Netherlands. From what I can tell, only notifications to Germany was necessary for the sale.
                  The difference between these two transfers may be in installed/integrated equipment, such as in particular radios.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                    I can only write about the Canadian experience. When we left our LEO Is in Afghanistan, we had to notify the Americans as well as the Germans of our intent. Canadian LEO Is were to be transferred to the Afghans.

                    Edited to add: The Canadians bought 80 LEO IIs from the Netherlands. From what I can tell, only notifications to Germany was necessary for the sale.
                    I'm just not understanding how the American export licenses would factor into Leopard exports to Ukraine. You've said Leopards contain American tech, which gives Washington a veto over the transfer. What American tech is in these Leopards, and does this mean the US has to issue export licenses on a German-made tank? Have American export licenses for Leopards been a thing for all previous non-NATO sales of the Leopard?

                    I'm aware that the Abrams uses the Rheinmetall 120mm smoothbore gun. I've never heard of the US having to obtain a German export license on Abrams sales overseas. Maybe this is really a thing that never gets remarked on. The US after all is selling Abrams tanks with German guns to countries that first wanted the Leopard, but were refused Leopards by Germany on the basis of human rights violations. So is Germany refusing Leopard sales in the Middle East, but granting export licenses to the Abrams to those same countries with Rheinmetall 120mm L44s?

                    In other news, Poland has announced they will begin training Ukrainian tank crews on the Leopard 2.
                    Last edited by Ironduke; 21 Jan 23,, 15:44.
                    "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Ironduke View Post
                      I'm just not understanding how the American export licenses would factor into Leopard exports to Ukraine. You've said Leopards contain American tech, which gives Washington a veto over the transfer. What American tech is in these Leopards, and does this mean the US has to issue export licenses on a German-made tank? Have American export licenses for Leopards been a thing for all previous non-NATO sales of the Leopard?
                      I never mention export licenses. I just stated that the Americans had a go-no-go. There was no export license issued by Germany nor US for the transfer of the LEO C2s to the Afghans.

                      In fact, there was no export license issued for the sale of 80 Dutch LEO IIs to Canada but for certain Berlin had a go-no-go on that sale.
                      Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 21 Jan 23,, 16:26.
                      Chimo

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                      • So if it's not an export license that's the factor, are we talking about something like informal disapproval? Or is there some, for lack of a better term, formal legal framework involved that falls below the level of an export license?
                        "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

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                        • I would be inclined to believe that a no-go would involve some sort of paper work. Can't imagine the Quarter Master doing anything without a CYA.
                          Chimo

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                          • I sense something is going to happen on the tank front. Training Ukrainian troops on Leo 2 suggests a.) either the Germans will provide authorization or, b.) other nations will take matters into their own hands by the time these troops have completed training. My guess is Poland isn't kidding. They're divesting themselves from Leo 2 anyway. Practical German retaliation will be, if anything, minimal and muted.

                            America should parallel this activity by initiating training in Germany and Poland on the care, sustainment and operation of STRYKER, Bradley AND M1s. M1s remain a SUPERB choice once you overcome the fuel cost thingy (it's only money and you can't take it with you) and sustainment-supply/maintenance issues. They will happily kill LOTS of Russsian tanks. Here's the thing-we've already solved these issues sufficient for American employment of Abrams tanks into eastern Europe. That supply/maintenance chain need only be extended further to southeast Poland and far western Ukraine.

                            We can do this.

                            We must also provide the numbers of recovery vehicles (and training/maintenance), ammunition, medical, air-defense, cavalry (M-3s) and command. Essentially battalion-sized sets. Oh, there's more. You need robust combat engineer/bridging assets (mobility enhancement).

                            These things can and should be done by America and others despite Germany. They've rendered themselves largely irrelevant until they emerge from their stupor.


                            "This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski
                            "The only true currency in this bankrupt world is what you share with someone else when you're uncool." Lester Bangs

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by S2 View Post
                              I sense something is going to happen on the tank front. Training Ukrainian troops on Leo 2 suggests a.) either the Germans will provide authorization or, b.) other nations will take matters into their own hands by the time these troops have completed training. My guess is Poland isn't kidding. They're divesting themselves from Leo 2 anyway. Practical German retaliation will be, if anything, minimal and muted.
                              I don't get that sense. Poland is only offering 14 LEO IIs, a single coy, out of the 249 they own. This smells of attempts at embarrassing the Germans.

                              https://www.politico.eu/article/pola...t-olaf-scholz/

                              Poland has pledged to send 14 Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. But, since the tanks are German-made, it needs Berlin’s approval, which Chancellor Olaf Scholz has yet to provide.
                              Chimo

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                              • My impression was that the number of 14 was an initial tranche, and there are plans to continue sending them.
                                "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

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