2022-2023 Russo-Ukrainian War

[Officer of Engineers]

Aim for a control tower or large hangar?

You've got trees and hills and other tall buildings in the way even long before you reach the target. This is a sea hugging missile.

[Goatboy]

If it was a movie, a rocket would come flying out of a burning aircraft and hit a fuel dump/ammo area...

Yeah, and the hero would jump out of the way of the resulting explosion, barely avoiding the fireball while in mid-air.

[Officer of Engineers]

Yeah, and the hero would jump out of the way of the resulting explosion, barely avoiding the fireball while in mid-air.

Just an FYI. If you're that close to the fireball, you're already ground meat from the over-pressure.

[Ironduke]

One hell of a reprograming the software to distinquish between target and surrounding clutter. In anti-ship mode, all you have to do is to distinquish between water and solids but ground targets over land? Especially when the radar isn't that fine tuned.

The Danube Delta area of Ukraine is precisely at the 190nm maximum distance range of the Neptune. And everything in between there and Saki is water.

[Officer of Engineers]

The Danube Delta area of Ukraine is precisely at the 190nm maximum distance range of the Neptune. And everything in between there and Saki is water.

There is still a lot of ground clutter.

[Goatboy]

Just an FYI. If you're that close to the fireball, you're already ground meat from the over-pressure.

I was thinking that too. I'd imagine shrapnel would be a factor too?

[Officer of Engineers]

I was thinking that too. I'd imagine shrapnel would be a factor too?

Most certainly but we're talking hollywood. Got to have at least a good looking corpse.

[zraver]

Got a LOT of friends in NAFO and I am pending my NAFO ascension.

What an amazing story.

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#there is no CIA

NAFO is awesome. If you're ever of a mind give my daily essays a look see
Every single day but 1 for months on end at this point.

[TopHatter]

Russian media is saying saboteurs but I really doubt it. I can see one explosion being incompetence or saboteurs, but not two or three near-simultaneous explosions. Ukraine is hinting that they used Neptunes in ground-attack mode.

EDIT: first vid of a blasted Su-24, but likely others got caught as well:

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1557082387087081473

Update From TWZ

A senior Ukrainian military official with knowledge of the situation told The New York Times that Ukrainian forces were behind the explosion.

“This was an air base from which planes regularly took off for attacks against our forces in the southern theater,” the official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military matters. The official would not tell the Times what type of weapon used in the attack, saying only that “a device exclusively of Ukrainian manufacture was used.”

Eh, maybe. Doesn't really matter. Russian stuff went boom. No more Russian stuff.

Gotta love the Russian MoD press release:

"As a result of the explosion, no one was injured. Aviation equipment at the airfield was not damaged, measures are being taken to extinguish the fire and find out the causes of the explosion. According to a report from the site, there was no fire impact on the bunded ammunition storage area at the airfield"

[Monash]

Grass fire, someones hexi-stove ignited, spontaneous concrete combustion. Lots of plausible alternatives .

[Ironduke]

Was thinking, ATACMS also has a 190 mile range. Could be that they have received it, are using it, and the stuff about Neptunes is misdirection.

[Ironduke]

There is still a lot of ground clutter.

The ground looks completely flat, I see no hills or tall buildings. Theoretically, a cruise missile flying @ 50 ft. shouldn't encounter any obstructions over land en route to that airbase. I don't know the veracity of this, but Trent Telenko says Neptune has GPS guidance. Which if true, would mean radar guidance is irrelevant.

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/sta...17053890060291

"The Neptune anti-ship cruise missile has a back up GPS/Inertial guidance capability for land attack capability like the US Harpoon."

[Monash]

The Uki's really need a limited supply of ACTAMS along with a stern warning to the effect that using them for any strike inside Russian territory will lead to the immediate cessation of further deliveries of advanced weapons systems to Ukraine.

[Goatboy]

Was thinking, ATACMS also has a 190 mile range. Could be that they have received it, are using it, and the stuff about Neptunes is misdirection.

Seems there'd be at least one HD video camera able to see a Neptune coming in for a strike. I'd think the traffic control tower alone would have 360deg HD video coverage 24/7. I could be wrong. Seems like a lot of ground for a Neptune to cover though without being seen by at least a security video feed or 3, especially given how flat the terrain is and how close the ground the Neptune would be flying -- easier for a security camera to pick up.

Functioning plausible deniability seems fleeting for Ukraine -- maybe they weren't counting on it at all.

[Ironduke]

The Uki's really need a limited supply of ACTAMS along with a stern warning to the effect that using them for any strike inside Russian territory will lead to the immediate cessation of further deliveries of advanced weapons systems to Ukraine.

Personally, I think we should be giving them ATACMS precisely for that purpose. There are legitimate military and logistical targets past that border. That Russian forces should be invulnerable beyond a line on the map, and be able to rest, re-group, supply, and re-deploy their forces with impunity, is the dumbest thing ever in my opinion. I think our politicians need to stop being chickenshit on this. I'm in full agreement with S2 on this point.