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  • Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
    Putin's puppet sure does love venting his spleen but how much of this is impotent rage? Especially after Russia's armed forces have demonstrated their, shall we say, limitations.
    We do the same thing. Too much saliva and ink has been thrown at Putin not to attack the Baltic States while we have yet to commit enough defence assets to the area for a protrated war.
    Chimo

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    • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
      We do the same thing. Too much saliva and ink has been thrown at Putin not to attack the Baltic States while we have yet to commit enough defence assets to the area for a protrated war.
      Well yes but the armed forces of the United States in particular, haven't shown themselves to the entire world -in the most graphic ways possible- to be a comic opera outfit of bumbling Keystone Kops that can't take care of business right in their own front yard.

      Before invading Ukraine, I'll be the first to admit that Russia could've run over the Baltics like a puppy being smacked aside by a semi truck, before NATO could intervene.

      But it isn't 23 February 2022 anymore.

      “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

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      • The old saying quantity has a quality of its own. Not even a division size force will be committed to the area. The Baltics is not just a puppy but also the runt of the litter

        https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/the-bal...-seek/47675766
        Chimo

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        • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
          The old saying quantity has a quality of its own. Not even a division size force will be committed to the area. The Baltics is not just a puppy but also the runt of the litter

          https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/the-bal...-seek/47675766
          Well, true but...can Russia currently spare so much as a single Battalion Tactical Group to even merely threaten the Baltics? And knowing full well that the moment the first Russian soldier sets foot on NATO territory, that, as you very accurately predicted, "we would destroy and humiliate the incursion force up to and including all staging areas on Russian soil."?

          To say nothing of the Baltics themselves having transformed their territory into bristling hedgehogs with rabies and a really antisocial attitude?
          “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

          Comment


          • The more things change, the more things stay the same. (Same shit, different bowl) Echoes of the People's War.
            Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 18 Jul 22,, 20:26.
            Chimo

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            • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
              The more things change, the more things stay the same. (Same shit, different bowl) Echoes of the People's War.
              I think that about sums up the situation.

              That link I posted was from 2017. I can't even begin to imagine the absolute frenzy of preparations in the Baltics since February 24th
              “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

              Comment


              • Originally posted by TopHatter View Post

                Well yes but the armed forces of the United States in particular, haven't shown themselves to the entire world -in the most graphic ways possible- to be a comic opera outfit of bumbling Keystone Kops that can't take care of business right in their own front yard.

                Before invading Ukraine, I'll be the first to admit that Russia could've run over the Baltics like a puppy being smacked aside by a semi truck, before NATO could intervene.

                But it isn't 23 February 2022 anymore.
                Here's a depressing article from the Economist stating that popular American support for Ukraine may well be waning due to the impact of high fuel costs and inflation etc and the public's lack of interest in another potential 'forever war'. It goes on to speculate that US financial and military support could be curtailed following the mid terms depending on which 'branch' of the Republican Party (traditional conservatives or populist MAGA's) takes the most seats in both Congress and the Senate. If its the Trumpist's the argument goes they would demand a negotiated settlement and 'rapprochement' with Russia/Putin. Which lets face it would may well be the result Putin himself is banking on.

                https://www.economist.com/united-sta...war-in-ukraine

                Sad thing is of course I can see this outcome actually happening! I 'get' the idea that ultimately a final settlement may well involve Ukraine ceding territory to Russia - as much as I don't don't like the idea. But America unilaterally forcing Ukraine to the negotiating table under the threat of an end to military support would put no pressure on Russia itself to cease hostilities and could potentially destroy the NATO alliance! (Thing being I suspect many Trumpist's would count that outcome as a 'win' as well. )

                So the clock may well be ticking for Ukraine to launch its offensive and put itself in a strong negotiating position. If it can. Otherwise?
                Last edited by Monash; 19 Jul 22,, 00:09.
                If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

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                • Originally posted by Monash View Post
                  So the clock may well be ticking for Ukraine to launch its offensive and put itself in a strong negotiating position. If it can. Otherwise?
                  I will argue otherwise. There will be a round 3 and it may not be the Russians starting round 3 (Georgia for example). The question is who can build new armies faster.

                  Chimo

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Monash View Post

                    Here's a depressing article from the Economist stating that popular American support for Ukraine may well be waning due to the impact of high fuel costs and inflation etc and the public's lack of interest in another potential 'forever war'. It goes on to speculate that US financial and military support could be curtailed following the mid terms depending on which 'branch' of the Republican P (traditional conservatives or populist MAGA's) take's the most seats in both Congress and the Senate. If its the Trumpist's the argument goes they would demand a negotiated settlement and 'rapprochement' with Russia/Putin. Which lets face it would may well be the result Putin himself is banking on.
                    At this moment in time, Trump is still the undisputed leader of the former Republican Party. There have been a few scattered signs here and there that his grip is slipping very slightly, but loyalty to Trump is still the only thing that matters.

                    Should the Guardians Of Putin take the reins of both houses of Congress this year, I predict that the current level of support for Ukraine will drop drastically.

                    If Trump wins another term in 2024, support for Ukraine will plummet to meaningless levels, regardless of the situation on the battlefield, if the battlefield still exists.

                    You said it best: Putin's best hope in Ukraine is the return of the Republicans to power. The Russians aren't even trying to pretend otherwise.
                    “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

                    Comment


                    • ^^ what is the fortitude of the 'west' to its 'principles' if the U.S. checks out?
                      Ego Numquam

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                      • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                        *** Looking at the firebombings of Dresden, Hamburg, Battle of Berlin with a 2.3 million man Soviet Army vs Mariupol, Luhansk with an entire Russian invasion force of 190K ***

                        YOU'VE GOT TO BE SHITTING ME! The Germans lost more people and cities in one day than the entire UKR has lost during this war.

                        And if you don't get it, there's ONLY one way of getting rid of current police corruption. Give them a god damned raise to living wages. "Look, you're caught speeding 30 kms over the speed limit. That's a $2000 fine. Give me $100 and I'll forget about it. I need to buy baby diapers." For a lot of Ukrainian police, hell, Ukrainian bureaucracy, accepting bribes is the only way they can make a decent living, being constantly underpaid.
                        What I meant is that Germany wasn't being threatened with extinction -- even Morganthau and his monstrous idea of a future Germany wasn't literally Germany dissolves into nothing. Ukraine on the other hand doesn't even exist according to Putin. Ukrainian culture, its people, Kviv, Odessa, all are part of mother Russia.

                        Stalin said something to the order of "Hitlers come and go, but the German state and people remain". Putin isn't saying the "Ukrainian people and state remain". I'm aware that Germany suffered far greater than Ukraine is currently when measured in body bags, starvation and capital destruction. I'm measuring the threat to the nation-state of Ukraine differently.

                        Kviv is safe now (as you mentioned) because Putin bit off way more than he could digest. He did state his demands at the beginning of the war which were
                        1) Denazification
                        2) Demilitarization.

                        How could 1) and 2) possibly succeed unless his intention was the occupation (digestion) of all of Ukraine, including Kviv, and presumably Lviv? Therefore, just because Kviv is currently safe from Russia, doesn't mean that Putin didn't represent an existential threat to all of Ukraine back in Feb. Also Why would Ukraine assume Kviv will remain safe 5 years from now? Round 4, round 5 or round 6? Seems to me even if Ukraine shoves Russia out of the entirety of Ukraine, Russia will remain a huge threat, even with Putin gone -- say Medvedev takes over after Putin has a stroke.
                        Last edited by Goatboy; 19 Jul 22,, 03:34.

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                        • Originally posted by Chunder View Post
                          ^^ what is the fortitude of the 'west' to its 'principles' if the U.S. checks out?
                          Like I said, the only thing that matters to the U.S. Republican Party is loyalty to Trump. They came right out and said that in their "platform" for the 2020 election.

                          There are no other "principles".

                          And Trump, being a completely unprincipled man, loves dictators, most especially Vladimir Putin and he hates Ukraine. End of story.
                          “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Monash View Post

                            In the longer term no. Transition into the EU is now on the cards (assuming Ukraine survives the war of course) and with that comes a whole lot of technical and legal reforms around civil rights and importantly anti-corruption measures. That's not to say corrupt nations can't enter the EU (Hungary and Bulgaria have issues for example) just that over time the pressure mounts from other members to institute effective reforms so previously high levels of public or institutional corruption become unacceptable. This is particularly the case because EU businesses moving into nations on the membership track face potentially severe consequences at home if they are found to have got caught up in serious local corruption. Well at least the Northern European based companies do.
                            Eastern Europe was screaming to get into the EU, like a golden ticket. Definitely put into high gear all those changes required to gain entry, something like 30 requirements. Turkey never could get over several hurdles. I bet Ukraine will.

                            You're right, Western companies will be a force against corruption if they are engaged in ukraine. I bet the free movement of people between EU members will do wonders to help cement Ukraine firmly in the West.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Goatboy View Post
                              What I meant is that Germany wasn't being threatened with extinction
                              Of course Germany was threatened with extinction. That's not even an arguement. In fact, it did go extinct and got replaced by two States, East and West Germany. And Germany was fighting to the LAST BOY, not last man, LAST BOY just to get people away to surrender to the British and Americans. There was not even a pretension that Germany was going to remain in any form. The very fact that the Allies demanded Unconditional Surrender meant German survival as a people or as a nation was not even a negotiating point. Stalin was going to wipe Germany off the map and he did. After WWII, there was no Germany. There was East and West Germany but no unified State. The Allies split Germany in half and the German people had zero say in the matter. They were just happy to stay in their homes instead of being tossed out to Siberia or French Algiers.

                              Originally posted by Goatboy View Post
                              Ukraine on the other hand doesn't even exist according to Putin. Ukrainian culture, its people, Kviv, Odessa, all are part of mother Russia.
                              Who cares what Putin thinks. He "won" Chechnya, so did Chechen culture and language disappeared? If anything, Putin is paying them to get stronger. There is ZERO ways for Putin to win militarily. Stalin could have done it but Putin ain't Stalin.

                              Originally posted by Goatboy View Post
                              How could 1) and 2) possibly succeed unless his intention was the occupation (digestion) of all of Ukraine, including Kviv, and presumably Lviv? Therefore, just because Kviv is currently safe from Russia, doesn't mean that Putin didn't represent an existential threat to all of Ukraine back in Feb. Also Why would Ukraine assume Kviv will remain safe 5 years from now? Round 4, round 5 or round 6? Seems to me even if Ukraine shoves Russia out of the entirety of Ukraine, Russia will remain a huge threat, even with Putin gone -- say Medvedev takes over after Putin has a stroke.
                              Oh hogwash, the best Putin could have done and I even said it back then was to sack Keiv. Putin tried to take Keiv with 30K men. The entire invasion force of 190K troops cannot take a city of 2.8 million. The last battle of Keiv involved 700K+ Soviet Troops. There was zero intent to march to Lviv. Otherwise, they would have done the prep work. They didn't.

                              Putin can wank himself all he wants but he absolutely lacks the manpower and the firepower to Russify the whole of Ukraine. His only Russification is in the areas already speaking Russian and even then, they're fighting tooth and nail to toss him out.

                              This war will end when both sides are exhausted. Then, both sides will get ready for round 3 and then round 4 and then round 5 and continue on until they both get the Battle of Annhilation both sides want. Neither side will be happy until either the Russian or the Ukrainian Army dies on the battlefield.
                              Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 19 Jul 22,, 04:23.
                              Chimo

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                                Of course Germany was threatened with extinction. That's not even an arguement. In fact, it did go extinct and got replaced by two States, East and West Germany. And Germany was fighting to the LAST BOY, not last man, LAST BOY just to get people away to surrender to the British and Americans. There was not even a pretension that Germany was going to remain in any form. The very fact that the Allies demanded Unconditional Surrender meant German survival as a people or as a nation was not even a negotiating point. Stalin was going to wipe Germany off the map and he did. After WWII, there was no Germany. There was East and West Germany but no unified State. The Allies split Germany in half and the German people had zero say in the matter. They were just happy to stay in their homes instead of being tossed out to Siberia or French Algiers.
                                I disagree that there was a meaningful plan for Germany to dissolve into nothing. It wasn't Germany that went extinct, it was the German Reich that went extinct. The people and nation would survive in a future form dictated by the allies (not Morganthau either). I'm not sure why Germany has to remain united for Germany to be considered "not extinct". South Koreans and their neighbors don't consider Korea to be extinct, just existing in a couple forms, the smaller one very strange. Maybe we're defining the word "extinction" differently.



                                Oh hogwash, the best Putin could have done and I even said it back then was to sack Keiv. Putin tried to take Keiv with 30K men. The entire invasion force of 190K troops cannot take a city of 2.8 million. The last battle of Keiv involved 700K+ Soviet Troops. There was zero intent to march to Lviv. Otherwise, they would have done the prep work. They didn't.
                                Sure, he couldn't sack Kviv with 30k soldiers -- I followed all this from the beginning, your posts too -- once Ukraine refused to keel over. But he certainly tried to decapitate the government. Hostomel Airport was quite a ballsy move to try. Perhaps Putin thought once Kviv was knocked over, Zelensky arrested, he could deal with a rump "Lviv state" later.

                                Putin's been building up financial reserves, tweaking the economy since 2014, to be able to withstand Western pressure in the event of another invasion of more of Ukraine. I'd argue Putin has been planning to invade Ukraine for the last 8 years. Sabotaging depots of 152mm artillery shells, and doing what it could to wreck Ukraine's rearmament all along. Therefore a Lviv invasion could wait, or maybe he wouldn't care? Maybe rump Lviv would be analogous to Georgia today: strategically impotent and defenseless. Anyway, assuming he never wanted to annex the Western 1/3 of Ukraine, I'm not sure what kind of Ukraine it would be without any sea coast and losing all it's largest cities (Kviv, Odessa, Kharkiv) with a somewhat smaller capital remaining, Lviv.


                                Putin can wank himself all he wants but he absolutely lacks the manpower and the firepower to Russify the whole of Ukraine. His only Russification is in the areas already speaking Russian and even then, they're fighting tooth and nail to toss him out.
                                Maybe he's satisfied with chasing everybody west instead of Russifying them? Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk come to mind, as does Mariupol. I expect Dnipro will lose most of their residents, never to return, should Russia advance. No Finns left to fight in Finnish Karelia after 1944. No Germans left in Konigsburg to resist.


                                This war will end when both sides are exhausted. Then, both sides will get ready for round 3 and then round 4 and then round 5 and continue on until they both get the Battle of Annhilation both sides want. Neither side will be happy until either the Russian or the Ukrainian Army dies on the battlefield.
                                Seems like that to me also. I don't see either side giving an inch. Ukraine wants blood after Bucha. Putin wants to win.
                                Last edited by Goatboy; 19 Jul 22,, 08:50.

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