2022-2023 Russo-Ukrainian War

[Monash]

"...The UA cracking down on corrupt police wanting bribes at a checkpoint"

Good to see. Much bigger issue than NAZIS, corruption is Ukraine's dubious legacy gifted from their communist lineage. Ukraine's made strides but clearly has a way to go. Russia? Even worse and going in the wrong direction.

Perun weighs in possibilities for BelaRUSSIAN entry. Any rational soul would acknowledge a most minimal likelihood. Key, of course, "rational". Teetering between myriad real reasons against and a few salient reasons to do so, Lukashenko is best served posturing. More than that is at great cost to no tangible gain and possibly self-destructive-

I can see Lukashenko having his arm twisted into mobilizing/declaring war but how more demotivated could any solider be in this current war than a Belarusian one?

- the army has not trained or mobilized for years except as needed to put down internal dissent;
- corruption and lack of parts/poor maintenance will mean most of their equipment is in even worse shape than Russia's was at the start of the war;
- their own country is not being attacked yet they're expected to invade a nation with which they share centuries long linguistic and cultural ties;
- they know they will be under Russia command and saw first hand how Russian units (previously stationed in Belarus at the start of the war) were treated re; concern for casualties and re-supply i.e. badly.
- their own citizenry/families want nothing to do with the war.

There's a good chance the bulk of the army would just refuse to fight. Perhaps the most professional/well equipped units would fight if ordered but they are also the ones Lukashenko relies on the most for his own protection. So I can see Lukashenko handing over munitions and equipment etc but committing to a war? My best guess? He's told Putin that unless he wants a second 'Ukraine' on his hands i.e. another pro Western/NATO Slavic state to deal with he better pull his head in and stop asking for Belorussian involvement.

[TopHatter]

I can see Lukashenko having his arm twisted into mobilizing/declaring war but how more demotivated could any solider be in this current war than a Belarusian one?

Excellent points....The time for direct Belarusian military involvement would've at the very beginning, before the entire world saw how horribly the Russia armed forces performed.

But I bet even that would've been politically impossible.

[TopHatter]

If this batch came from the US it would have taken awhile as they would have been in storage. When a vehicle is set up for long range storage many components are sealed/removed to protect from the elements. If out of storage they likely came out of Sierra Army Depot (wrote about them a few months ago) where they needed to have items returned as well as new software uploaded and various mechanical components replaced. If these are former USMC vehicles same process...but they would have to be taught how to read and write first...

Looks like they came from British Army stocks and Germany is preparing to send some as well, but I can't find any English language sources.

[Goatboy]

"...The UA cracking down on corrupt police wanting bribes at a checkpoint"

Good to see. Much bigger issue than NAZIS, corruption is Ukraine's dubious legacy gifted from their communist lineage. Ukraine's made strides but clearly has a way to go. Russia? Even worse and going in the wrong direction.

Perun weighs in possibilities for BelaRUSSIAN entry. Any rational soul would acknowledge a most minimal likelihood. Key, of course, "rational". Teetering between myriad real reasons against and a few salient reasons to do so, Lukashenko is best served posturing. More than that is at great cost to no tangible gain and possibly self-destructive-

Agreed. Corruption was so endemic. One only needs to look at Yanukovych's huge golden palace with a gold toilet to see. From what I've read Ukraine has made enormous strides in creating a true democracy, and creating true transparency, but its anti-corruption reforms haven’t brought the oligarchs to justice as yet. [/QUOTE]


What I find really encouraging about the twitter video is how quickly the soldiers responded to what that quite young man, almost a kid, had accused the cop of. They jumped right on that cop, and they were PISSED.

Not according to this

https://bykvu.com/eng/bukvy/ukraine-...e-know-so-far/

Since the war began, I strongly doubt that Keiv used their limited budgets to raise police salaries to above survival wages. Until, you pay your police above minimum wage, demand for bribes will still occur. Choice between honour and food on a table is hard enough choice but once you add in diapers, it becomes obvious what's going to happen.

And I will bet that these two cops will try to bribe their way out of this mess also. Family will just have to go hungry for a while.

I bet tolerance for bribes is much reduced. Nothing like an existential threat to make progress. Ukraine was threatened with being subsumed into the Russian "collective", their identity wiped out, an existential threat that the United States, France in 1940, or even Germany never really faced

Assuming the war ends with Ukraine's sovereignty intact (and much of Russia's territorial gains reversed), would Ukraine return to its old corrupt ways, or would they force themselves to stamp out corruption simply to further their progress in gaining entry to the EU?

[Officer of Engineers]

I bet tolerance for bribes is much reduced. Nothing like an existential threat to make progress. Ukraine was threatened with being subsumed into the Russian "collective", their identity wiped out, an existential threat that the United States, France in 1940, or even Germany never really faced

Assuming the war ends with Ukraine's sovereignty intact (and much of Russia's territorial gains reversed), would Ukraine return to its old corrupt ways, or would they force themselves to stamp out corruption simply to further their progress in gaining entry to the EU?

*** Looking at the firebombings of Dresden, Hamburg, Battle of Berlin with a 2.3 million man Soviet Army vs Mariupol, Luhansk with an entire Russian invasion force of 190K ***

YOU'VE GOT TO BE SHITTING ME! The Germans lost more people and cities in one day than the entire UKR has lost during this war.

And if you don't get it, there's ONLY one way of getting rid of current police corruption. Give them a god damned raise to living wages. "Look, you're caught speeding 30 kms over the speed limit. That's a $2000 fine. Give me $100 and I'll forget about it. I need to buy baby diapers." For a lot of Ukrainian police, hell, Ukrainian bureaucracy, accepting bribes is the only way they can make a decent living, being constantly underpaid.

[TopHatter]

*** Looking at the firebombings of Dresden, Hamburg, Battle of Berlin with a 2.3 million man Soviet Army vs Mariupol, Luhansk with an entire Russian invasion force of 190K ***

I think he meant that the stated goal of the allies wasn't to wipe Germany, German culture and the German language off the map. True, there were a few people that wanted to turn Germany into an agrarian society without enough industry to make such much as a moped...

Having said that, there have been instances of what he's describing during the Second World War and since then. "...threatened with being subsumed into [a foreign] "collective", their identity wiped out, an existential threat...".

[Officer of Engineers]

I think he meant that the stated goal of the allies wasn't to wipe Germany, German culture and the German language off the map.

*** Looking at the Red Army's march through East Germany and subsquent forced integration into the Warsaw Pact *** What's the difference?

[Monash]

....
Assuming the war ends with Ukraine's sovereignty intact (and much of Russia's territorial gains reversed), would Ukraine return to its old corrupt ways, or would they force themselves to stamp out corruption simply to further their progress in gaining entry to the EU?

In the longer term no. Transition into the EU is now on the cards (assuming Ukraine survives the war of course) and with that comes a whole lot of technical and legal reforms around civil rights and importantly anti-corruption measures. That's not to say corrupt nations can't enter the EU (Hungary and Bulgaria have issues for example) just that over time the pressure mounts from other members to institute effective reforms so previously high levels of public or institutional corruption become unacceptable. This is particularly the case because EU businesses moving into nations on the membership track face potentially severe consequences at home if they are found to have got caught up in serious local corruption. Well at least the Northern European based companies do.

[Bigfella]

*** Looking at the Red Army's march through East Germany and subsquent forced integration into the Warsaw Pact *** What's the difference?

The difference is that East Germany got to stay German. Russia didn't replace their language & make them Russia citizens. It didn't incorporate their nation into Russia. Contrast with Koinigsberg aka Kaliningrad, which ceased to be German in any way. Forced relocation of Germans & Russification of the entire enclave.

For comparison, Russia has already removed substantial numbers of Ukranians. it is currently changing street signs in occupied Ukraine to Russian. It is in the process of forcing Russian to be taught in schools and is issuing Russian passports. Even if that territory is not formally integrated into Russia, what is going on is a concerted attempt to obliterate Ukranian culture there and make the area Russian.

This is more Kaliningrad than East Germany, and were are only a few months into the process.

[Officer of Engineers]

The difference is that East Germany got to stay German. Russia didn't replace their language & make them Russia citizens. It didn't incorporate their nation into Russia. Contrast with Koinigsberg aka Kaliningrad, which ceased to be German in any way. Forced relocation of Germans & Russification of the entire enclave.

For comparison, Russia has already removed substantial numbers of Ukranians. it is currently changing street signs in occupied Ukraine to Russian. It is in the process of forcing Russian to be taught in schools and is issuing Russian passports. Even if that territory is not formally integrated into Russia, what is going on is a concerted attempt to obliterate Ukranian culture there and make the area Russian.80%

This is more Kaliningrad than East Germany, and were are only a few months into the process.

Putin already lost the war to destroy Ukrainian culture. Keiv is safe. The area under contest is Russian speaking and have substantial pro-Moscow support. The UKR is NOT under existential threat, not even cultural genocide. It never was in the first place. It was militarily undoable. Ukraine was always going to survive in Lviv. Contrast that to 2.3 million Soviet troops commited to Berlin alone. The Soviets did a Mongol to that city and any German city that resisted.

The Germans were left with no say in their own survival, let alone cultural survival, at the end of WWII. This is far from the case for Keiv. For anyone to put the plight of the Ukrainians vs some truly brutal history is to be academically dishonest at the very least.

[Bigfella]

Putin already lost the war to destroy Ukrainian culture. Keiv is safe. The area under contest is Russian speaking and have substantial pro-Moscow support. The UKR is NOT under existential threat, not even cultural genocide. It never was in the first place. It was militarily undoable. Ukraine was always going to survive in Lviv. Contrast that to 2.3 million Soviet troops commited to Berlin alone. The Soviets did a Mongol to that city and any German city that resisted.

The Germans were left with no say in their own survival, let alone cultural survival, at the end of WWII. This is far from the case for Keiv. For anyone to put the plight of the Ukrainians vs some truly brutal history is to be academically dishonest at the very least.

The original post used the past tense, no one here is being dishonest and this isn't worth wasting any more time on. Given all that has happened and is happening it would not be unreasonable for the average Ukranian to view the invasion as an existential threat, which is the crux of the point being made. I doubt they much care about the finer points of Russia's invasion of Germany 80 years ago right at the moment.

[astralis]

plus there's other ways of exercising cultural domination than razing cities to the ground, tho that seems to be the Russian favorite nowadays.

Putin's plan was to rumpify Ukraine: slice off greater portions of the east to LNR/DNR, create an entirely new Novorossiya puppet state stretching to Transnistra, and then put a Russian puppet in Kyiv to rule over the now-impoverished/Russian-trade dependent Ukraine. the golden rule: he who has the gold, makes the rules.

given what Russian media was saying, they wouldn't have minded if Poland wanted to make Lviv Lwow Again.

and as far as I can tell, Putin hasn't "given up" on that plan, but has just acknowledged it probably won't happen all at once.

[Officer of Engineers]

The original post used the past tense, no one here is being dishonest and this isn't worth wasting any more time on. Given all that has happened and is happening it would not be unreasonable for the average Ukranian to view the invasion as an existential threat, which is the crux of the point being made. I doubt they much care about the finer points of Russia's invasion of Germany 80 years ago right at the moment.

Let me get this straight. The average Ukrainian can view the Russian invasion as an existential threat but Germans being bombed and butchered by an unstoppable Red Army cannot? The Germans were fighting to the last boy, not just last man, but last BOY just so that their grandmothers can surrender to the other invading armies. To say the Germans did not face an existential threat is nonsense.

Goatboy is still wrong and damned wrong. The Ukrainians today has not and do not face such threats.

[Officer of Engineers]

plus there's other ways of exercising cultural domination than razing cities to the ground, tho that seems to be the Russian favorite nowadays.

Putin's plan was to rumpify Ukraine: slice off greater portions of the east to LNR/DNR, create an entirely new Novorossiya puppet state stretching to Transnistra, and then put a Russian puppet in Kyiv to rule over the now-impoverished/Russian-trade dependent Ukraine. the golden rule: he who has the gold, makes the rules.

given what Russian media was saying, they wouldn't have minded if Poland wanted to make Lviv Lwow Again.

and as far as I can tell, Putin hasn't "given up" on that plan, but has just acknowledged it probably won't happen all at once.

One word - Chechnya and Ukrainian culture did just fine under Hitler.

[TopHatter]

Let's get things back on topic....

Russia's Medvedev: Attack on Crimea will ignite 'Judgement Day' response

MOSCOW (Reuters) -The refusal of Ukraine and Western powers to recognise Moscow's control of Crimea poses a "systemic threat" for Russia and any outside attack on the region will prompt a "Judgment Day" response, former president Dmitry Medvedev said on Sunday.

Russia annexed the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 after a pro-Moscow president in Kyiv was toppled amid mass street protests. Moscow then also backed pro-Russian armed separatists in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine.

In the event of an attack on Crimea, Medvedev was quoted by TASS news agency as saying, "Judgment Day will come very fast and hard. It will be very difficult to hide."

Medvedev did not elaborate but has previously warned the United States of the dangers of attempting to punish a nuclear power such as Russia over its actions in Ukraine, saying this could endanger humanity.

His comments were aired a day after a Ukrainian official suggested that Crimea, which most of the world still recognises as part of Ukraine, could be a target for U.S.-made HIMARS missiles, recently deployed by Kyiv as it battles Russian forces.

Earlier on Sunday, Interfax news agency quoted Medvedev as telling World War Two veterans: "If any other state, be it Ukraine or NATO countries, believes that Crimea is not Russian, then this is a systemic threat for us."

"This is a direct and an explicit threat, especially given what had happened to Crimea. Crimea returned to Russia," said Medvedev, who now serves as deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council.

Vadym Skibitskyi, an official at Ukrainian military intelligence, was asked on Saturday in a televised interview if HIMARS could be used on targets in Crimea.

He said Russia had carried out strikes on Ukrainian territory from Crimea and the Black Sea and so these were also justified targets.

Crimea is of particular strategic importance to Russia as it includes the headquarters of its Black Sea fleet at Sevastopol.
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Putin's puppet sure does love venting his spleen but how much of this is impotent rage? Especially after Russia's armed forces have demonstrated their, shall we say, limitations.