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  • Originally posted by Albany Rifles View Post
    Can everyone just chill so I can make it to retirement next January?
    I know I've told this story.

    Once upon a time, I was the Officer of the Day for 5/10, 2dMarDiv.

    The morning I was coming off duty, I checked the Unclass read board to brief the Bn CO. My retirement orders was one of the messages. As the Oncoming OOD and I were standing by the COs hatch my Sgt of the Guard told me to come look at the TV. "I need to see this"

    It was 9/11. Took till March for them to decide that those of us already approved could actually retire.

    Hope yours goes smooth



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    • Originally posted by Gun Grape View Post

      I know I've told this story.

      Once upon a time, I was the Officer of the Day for 5/10, 2dMarDiv.

      The morning I was coming off duty, I checked the Unclass read board to brief the Bn CO. My retirement orders was one of the messages. As the Oncoming OOD and I were standing by the COs hatch my Sgt of the Guard told me to come look at the TV. "I need to see this"

      It was 9/11. Took till March for them to decide that those of us already approved could actually retire.

      Hope yours goes smooth


      If they tell me me I have to return to active duty I am submitting a telework package.
      “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
      Mark Twain

      Comment


      • Sometimes, it helps not to look at this with modern lenses. Rome was sacked more than once. Washington DC was also burned. Pre-WWII China was nothing more than a collection of independent provinces. Afghanistan today had the same look as Warlord China. With this in mind, then Putin's options become much more diverse. He may not need to occupy the country but to smash the centalized authority so that the Oblasts would be forced to assume more control, in effect fracturing the UKR into smaller countries. Putin already got LNR and DNR. It would not take much to get Odessa onto her own government.

        Even if Kiev managed to stay in control, Putin could force terms of surrender as harsh as the ones we've imposed on Saddam. Note that we did not occupy Iraq after the Kuwait War though Baghdad could rival Hiroshima in damage.
        Chimo

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Albany Rifles View Post
          Can everyone just chill so I can make it to retirement next January?
          Don't ever go into a retirement home. I lasted 43 days before I moved back to my farm. I swear I make a better egg salad sandwich than what was plopped onto my plate.

          Chimo

          Comment


          • Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
            A colleague of mine from the PRC says that neither Ukraine nor Russia wants war, but the United States definitely does. Oh and Ukraine is at fault for the current Russian deployment.
            No conqueror wants war. The costs and risks are not fully known beforehand. What he wants is the fruits of war.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Mithridates View Post
              No conqueror wants war. The costs and risks are not fully known beforehand. What he wants is the fruits of war.
              OK...but, other than potentially another European war involving multiple nuclear powers, what are the fruits of this war for the United States?
              “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

              Comment


              • Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
                OK...but, other than potentially another European war involving multiple nuclear powers, what are the fruits of this war for the United States?
                Another Vietnam for Russia.

                Chimo

                Comment


                • Originally posted by TopHatter View Post

                  OK...but, other than potentially another European war involving multiple nuclear powers, what are the fruits of this war for the United States?
                  The rest of NATO finally cares about their collective defense against Russia?

                  Biden needs to look strong to distract from domestic problems?

                  I've read the same about the U.S. really wants this war, mostly British Commonwealth/Ireland more left (some right) "America is responsible for all problems in the world" types.

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                  • Originally posted by rj1 View Post

                    The rest of NATO finally cares about their collective defense against Russia?

                    Biden needs to look strong to distract from domestic problems?
                    Oh god....

                    And all of that is worth touching off a Third World War, or at the very least causing a worldwide financial meltdown?

                    Originally posted by rj1 View Post
                    I've read the same about the U.S. really wants this war, mostly British Commonwealth/Ireland more left (some right) "America is responsible for all problems in the world" types.
                    Ok yeah, I see what you mean now. To people with that kind mentality, it's "worth it" to the United States.
                    “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by rj1 View Post

                      That's kind of what I think. The template for me here is Georgia 2008. They could've ran through Tbilisi if they wanted, they stopped at Gori, then retreated back to Abkhazia/South Ossetia.

                      It looks like they'll take away Black Sea coastline from Ukraine. They should stabilize their control of Crimea, for example, post-2014 the Ukrainians turned off a canal that sent water to Crimea and water supply has been an issue since for the Russians, therefore they should take control of the canal. They could go further inward from the present dividing line between Donbass and the rest of Ukraine as a buffer, but it's plains, who cares. I don't see what they gain taking Kiev. I can see going to the edge of Kiev and threatening Zelensky to surrender or they will go into Kiev.

                      Ukraine cannot do anything to the Russian Navy I've read, so if there is any invasion, just have the navy target Ukrainian military equipment for a day before you even begin to Russian ground forces in harm's way.
                      A lot of what your suggesting in terms of permanent territorial gains by Russia would IMO be classed as overly ambitious. Perhaps securing water supplies for Sevastopol is doable. Perhaps other narrow gains along those parts of the border occupied by ethnic Russian majorities, but seizing the Ukraine's entire Black Sea/Sea of Asov coastline and keeping it? That's a large chunk of territory (and they can't just seize a couple of Ks of coastline they have to strike inland for 50-100 K at a minimum to secure their positions).

                      Apart for that? The more land they take the less Ukraine will be persuaded to cease fighting. Same for NATO and the EU. Firstly not only will large scale land seizures make it harder for the NATO to pressure the Ukrainian government into accepting it as done deal but secondly NATO etc themselves will by much less inclined to even try! NATO and the EU & their sovereign member nation states simply can't afford to be seen idly sitting by while a hostile power makes large scale land grabs from a friendly neighbor with impunity. Not only would it set a disastrous example for the future it would undermine each and every members claim to defending the sovereignty of their own territory. A few square kilometers of territory along the border they may be able to stomach and sell to Ukraine in return for a lasting peace. Something like 10-20% of the country. Never in a million years.

                      Originally posted by rj1 View Post
                      The rest of Eastern Europe is even worse though because their youth are getting educated and then using their Schengen passport to leave for the rest of the EU. Russia will win that game just because of their sheer size in comparison, a 5% drop for them versus a 5% drop for the Baltic states is not equally damaging.
                      Certainly European demographics are bleak. But the thing is the EU States have to put up barriers to keep would be immigrants out. Russia' has no such 'problem'. With the exception of some immigrants from the impoverished Stans, Russia can't attract migrants and certainly not skilled ones to replace what they're losing. And this has been an ongoing problem for more than 30 years, ever since the fall of the USSR. And it is the best and brightest of their younger generations who are doing the leaving. The numbers aren't large but they're been consistent now for over 30 years, and they add up. Even now Chinese migration for business purposes in the Russian Far East heralds a day where ethnic Russians well be in the minority across Siberia.
                      Last edited by Monash; 16 Feb 22,, 06:09.
                      If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Monash View Post
                        That's a large chunk of territory (and they can't just seize a couple of Ks of coastline they have to strike inland for 50-100 K at a minimum to secure their positions).
                        With Putin in charge? Who in Kiev got the balls to kick Putin out even from 5-10 kms of coastline?

                        Chimo

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                        • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                          With Putin in charge? Who in Kiev got the balls to kick Putin out even from 5-10 kms of coastline?
                          Its not that he can't. Its that he can but at a cost? I.e. are potentially crippling economic sanctions coupled with a potentially perennial 'border war' with Ukraine and the related body count worth it? And while you and I both know Putin won't care much about that last item Russian voters certainly will. They certainly did with Chechnya . Couple that with ongoing hardships at home due to the sanctions? For Putin it's simply a cost/benefit analysis. What concessions can be extracted from the west at what potential cost? One things for sure, he needs something to show the folks back home so he can at least pretend that Russia 'won'.
                          Last edited by Monash; 16 Feb 22,, 06:28.
                          If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

                          Comment


                          • What perennial 'border war?' Do you know how Chechnya was solved? Putin put another crime boss, a Chechen crime boss, Kadyrov, in charge. Kadyrov lead the Chechen revolt. He fought and killed Russians and Putin put him in charge. Why? Because Kadyrov is tough enough to stamp out (read disappear) his rivals.

                            Considering how the UKR is runned, Poroshanko put the wanted Georgian criminal Saaskashvili in charge of Odessa and nobody blinked an eye. Putin is not above putting a tough criminal crime boss in charge in Kiev just to meet his own ends, even those who fought against him.

                            Again, the modern picture does not paint the options open to Putin but the ancient pictures sure do. Atila was bribed by the Pope not to sack Rome. Gibraltar is militarily indefensible but does Spain have the balls to take it? Even modern day examples show how punitive and effective terms of surrender are without the need to station troops or grab 100s of kms of buffer. Again, I point to Saddam. After Kuwait War, we did not station 100s of 1000s of troops in Kuwait nor Saudi Arabia to watch the still strong Iraqi Army. The threat alone was enough to keep Saddam contained.

                            And I seriously question what sanctions? Name me one thing that would hurt the Russians that the Chinese can't replace?
                            Chimo

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                              And I seriously question what sanctions? Name me one thing that would hurt the Russians that the Chinese can't replace?
                              Access to SWIFT?
                              “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

                              Comment


                              • Crime bosses want their monies landered, not traced.
                                Chimo

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