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  • Double Edge
    replied
    Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    The point being, did India knowingly bought from AQ Khan's network or from middle men whom they don't know it was AQ Khan's network.
    How to answer this question :)

    I found out about this story a few weeks back whilst looking for something entirely different. I wanted to know if the IAEA had any thing on Frodow, found a blog where the author stated Josh told him things were under control. It was just stated like that.

    So i looked Josh up and first thing i saw was this story
    Last edited by Double Edge; 21 Feb 12,, 01:29.

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  • Guest's Avatar
    Guest replied
    Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
    Good, then i'm sceptical that we would have been able to buy anything off Khan's network :)
    Well from your Dr Jeffery's blog that you linked to

    Let’s get one thing straight: The evidence is incontrovertible that India was a customer of the Khan network. South African court documents state that South African elements of the network sold UF6-resistant flow meters to India.

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  • Double Edge
    replied
    Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    The problem is seperating the truth from the lies. Did AQ Khan built centerfuges for China? No. Did India knowingly bought from AQ Khan's network? Unknown, since India herself put out newspaper ads for such bids. Did AQ Khan's network sell to India? Yes.
    I think that bolded bit should be 'suspected of selling to India'.

    There isn't anything conclusive on that as yet or i've missed it.

    Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    This would be off topic. While I understand the Indians considering Paksitani reactions, I don't think they cared one single bit what Pakistan did. This was a test of Indian nuclear capabilities, not of Pakistani reactions. So, while I understand that BJP considered RAW's analysis, I don't think it was a factor. After all, nothing on the ground changed.
    You've mentioned this before and it makes sense to me. The test was primarily to validate our deterrent.

    NUCLEAR ANXIETY; Indian's Letter to Clinton On the Nuclear Testing | NY Times | May 13 1998
    All our PM says is 'deterioriating security environment, specially the nuclear environment, faced by India for some years past.' and he refers to China here as the main threat.

    Basically the rationale offered for the test makes no sense whatsoever. I put it down to Vajpayee being a politician. He has offered domestic political reasons for the test. The domestic idealogical opposition to the tests were large and the issue was divisive. Clinton wasn't having any of it and promptly leaked the letter.

    Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    But that's besides the point, the point is that Indian generals publically relied on open source than on any RAW public statements.
    Good, then i'm sceptical that we would have been able to buy anything off Khan's network :)
    Last edited by Double Edge; 20 Feb 12,, 19:37.

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  • Double Edge
    replied
    Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    I bet there was a huge initial uproar of denial.
    You would think but i cannot recall much mention in the media here, appeared in a few newspapers but nothing more. The BR discussion on it is minimal for something like this.

    Did not become a topic of discussion here until today, effectively two months after the playboy article came out.

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  • Double Edge
    replied
    Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    I know this is completely off tangent but the title of this thread fits this bomb (no pun intended). There is a suggestion that India was AQ Khan's 4th customer

    The Secret Treachery of A.Q. Khan

    It would appear that India did buy somethings from this network but whether they knew it was of Pakistani origins is not answered.
    Heh, i was wondering whether to post it or not, it seems rather light and based just on looks.

    A transcript of Pollacks Carnegie Jan 23 talk is here. Gives timelines of when various countires AQ Khan proliferated to and the way he screwed them over with non working designs. The implication is they were only too happy to give him up. Iran however is another matter entirely, they've protected him very well to date.

    India Was Khan’s Fourth Customer | Armscontrolwonk| Dec 21 2011

    AQ Khan and India at CEIP | Armscontrolwonk | Jan 24 2012

    Originally posted by Blademaster View Post
    There was an huge discussion on this at BR and we have come to the conclusion it was the RAW who purchased from A.Q. Khan. How do you find out quickly about the extent of nuclear technology of A.Q. Khan and what kind of nuclear technology he has? Easy. Just buy it from him and see what he can do. It is well known that A.Q. Khan has a very huge ego. A little stroke of massaging of A.Q. Khan's ego and he will spill the beans, er.. brag, about his work.
    Not really, only a few posts and then the discussion moved on to more pressing concerns like Kudankulam protests and the supposed church's involvement in it (!).

    This was as a result of the playboy magazine article that came out around that time. Playboy magazine of all places !! isn't WAPO, NYTeims or the sunday edition of the Times of London the customary newspapers where such bombshells are exposed.

    BR thread is here of which the most pertinent comment i found was by JE Menon

    While the possibility that AQ Khan (and basically this means Pakistan) sold nuclear technology to India is totally counter-intuitive, practically unthinkable really, it is not totally inconceivable. The Indians, if nothing else are generally mild and non-confrontational but also ruthlessly realistic. Consider:

    1. The strategic environment in those days was extremely restrictive. India was sanctioned heavily in the nuclear sector, with certain arrangements having been arrived at amongst the NPT signatories specifically targeting India.

    2. At the same time, the US due to its own strategic exigencies, was turning a blind eye to the fact that Pakistan was busy developing a nuclear capability of its own. The US did this because it wanted to keep the anti-Soviet Jihad in Afghanistan going.

    3. Obviously, the Indians knew what AQ Khan was up to. The Pakistani nuclear program was certainly closely tracked by Indian intelligence. They also knew they could do next to nothing to prevent it, given the American posture on the matter.

    4. In such a situation, in view of the fact that India was still developing its own capability, is it inconceivable that New Delhi decided that it would use the only proliferation network that was “protected” by the US? This would have been a subtle way of
    (a) getting back at Pakistan, i.e. making them provide the rope which Indians would use to hang them (at least in Pakistani minds);
    (b) use the Pakistani key to unlock the American firewall around Pakistan’s nuclear activities; and
    (c) keep an inside track of what Pakistan was up to in the proliferation business.

    On the Indian side, it cannot have been anything but a state operation, and almost certainly an intelligence operation. There is a certain subtle elegance in getting your enemies to provide you with the capability that they themselves firmly believe you would use to exterminate them, and more deliciously get it with the support of the Pakistani military establishment, whose raison d’etre is the destruction of India. And the approach would be typically Indian. (Suggestion: read the Arthashastra by Kautilya – from approximately 300 BC, to get an idea of what I’m talking about. It is the ancient Indian treatise on Politics).

    Having said that, there is nothing that can remotely pass as evidence (at least in the public domain) that such transactions did occur. Josh Pollack's article raises the possibility, and certainly it will be examined in more critical detail in the coming weeks if the buzz lasts that long. If not, it will lie dormant, until someone from India sheds light on this. Fat chance of that.
    and this reply to the above post

    If there is any truth to this, I would have to say that this operation ranks right up there with anything Mossad has done. The delicious irony would be if AQK was informed about the identity of "the customer" after the "sale" happened, thereby tying him and his network to secrecy for ever, never able to mention the "customer's" name, because he would be lynched by public opinion in Pakistan, and this great secret protected by the Pakistan armed forces!!
    Plausible ? who knows, maybe. Anything more i kinda doubt it.

    Originally posted by Blademaster View Post
    RAW wanted to be able to estimate how much power would Pakistan need to run its centrifuge, how much materials would Pakistan need to make a viable kg of nuclear materials so India could estimate the prowess of Pakistan's nuclear program.
    Conjecture on top of another :)
    Last edited by Double Edge; 20 Feb 12,, 19:44.

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  • Guest's Avatar
    Guest replied
    Originally posted by Blademaster View Post
    My recollection was that Pollack published it in Playboy (yeah like its a real prestigious magazine) and Jeffrey brought it to attention.
    They're both editors at ARMSCONTROLWONK. Pollack published his essay there but it was put up for defence at the Carnegie Endowment. And Playboy does have a history of insightful articles. Yes, I do read and I do mean READ Playboy from time to time.

    Originally posted by Blademaster View Post
    How do you know that Indian centrifuges are similar to Pakistan centrifuges? Moreover, India uses a different material from what Pakistan uses.
    From The Secret Treachery of A.Q. Khan

    India’s enrichment program progressed slowly, but at some point before 1992 the Indians began experimenting with supercritical centrifuges, devices that can withstand very high rotational speeds. The program apparently continued to expand, with the Indians purchasing large quantities of supercritical centrifuge components from 1997 to 1999 and again from 2003 to 2006. Surprisingly, they were almost open about their shopping spree. In 2006 the Washington, D.C.–based Institute for Science and International Security revealed that the Indian government had used newspaper ads to solicit bids for centrifuge parts. The details of these advertisements, along with documents the Indians gave potential suppliers, provide strong clues about where New Delhi’s supercritical centrifuge technology came from. Despite some changes, the design is recognizable to the trained eye: It almost mirrors the G-2 centrifuge, a design that Khan stole from URENCO in the 1970s and later reproduced as Pakistan’s P-2 centrifuge.
    Originally posted by Blademaster View Post
    Not really. As long as the nuclear enrichment principles are the same, designs would be similar. Nothing groundbreaking about this.
    Actually, there is a whole world of difference. It's relatively easy to make 5% enrichment, a hell of a lot harder to make 20%.

    Originally posted by Blademaster View Post
    So what? At least RAW is finding that out and starting somewhere.
    Starting from junk? Iran has not gotten the bomb today for precisely the reason that they relied on AQ Khan's junk. If we were to based Pakistani nuclear capabilities on what AQ Khan sold, then, they should not have the bomb ... and yet they do.

    Originally posted by Blademaster View Post
    Come on. You know better than this. It is not hard to put two and two together.
    The problem is seperating the truth from the lies. Did AQ Khan built centerfuges for China? No. Did India knowingly bought from AQ Khan's network? Unknown, since India herself put out newspaper ads for such bids. Did AQ Khan's network sell to India? Yes.

    Originally posted by Blademaster View Post
    I don't think so. BJP used RAW's analysis of Pakistan's capabilities as one of many reasons why it went for Pokhran-II tests.
    This would be off topic. While I understand the Indians considering Paksitani reactions, I don't think they cared one single bit what Pakistan did. This was a test of Indian nuclear capabilities, not of Pakistani reactions. So, while I understand that BJP considered RAW's analysis, I don't think it was a factor. After all, nothing on the ground changed.

    But that's besides the point, the point is that Indian generals publically relied on open source than on any RAW public statements.

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  • Blademaster
    replied
    Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    It was Pollack, not Jeffery. You should understand the need for accuracy in this.
    My recollection was that Pollack published it in Playboy (yeah like its a real prestigious magazine) and Jeffrey brought it to attention.

    Then, it should have absolutely no similarity to Pakistani designs. The one piece of evdience that we know that AQ Khan was full of crap about setting up Chinese centerfuges was that the Chinese were using Russian designs, not Paksitanis. And the fact that the plant that he claimed to have built was nothing more than dirt when examined by the IAEA.
    How do you know that Indian centrifuges are similar to Pakistan centrifuges? Moreover, India uses a different material from what Pakistan uses.

    Now, it maybe the biggest stroke of luck that India came up with the same design principals but for Pollack at least, this raises questions.
    Not really. As long as the nuclear enrichment principles are the same, designs would be similar. Nothing groundbreaking about this.

    You do know that AQ Khan was not above selling junk which would make any such conclusion about Pakistani nuclear capabilities dubious to say the least.
    So what? At least RAW is finding that out and starting somewhere.

    The point being, did India knowingly bought from AQ Khan's network or from middle men whom they don't know it was AQ Khan's network. Do recall that AQ Khan did blame his middlemen for expansion of the network. If it was middlemen, then it would explain why there were no warhead blueprint. India didn't buy them. India was not going to get them. Wheras AQ Khan was not above giving them away as enticements to sales.
    Come on. You know better than this. It is not hard to put two and two together.

    Considering your own generals quote Hans Kristensen, an open source researcher, it would appear RAW did a poor job at evaluating Paksitani capabilities.
    I don't think so. BJP used RAW's analysis of Pakistan's capabilities as one of many reasons why it went for Pokhran-II tests. Hell, CIA fared poorly and still US went to war with Iraq and some expensive fiasco it turned out to be.

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  • Guest's Avatar
    Guest replied
    Originally posted by Blademaster View Post
    Well, you are basing your conclusions on nothing but conjecture and innuendo which is pretty much the basis of the armcontrolwonks. We have examined Jeffrey's article and could find no hard fact to base a sustainable conclusion.
    It was Pollack, not Jeffery. You should understand the need for accuracy in this.

    Originally posted by Blademaster View Post
    India has mastered its own centrifuge technology before A.Q. Khan did.
    Then, it should have absolutely no similarity to Pakistani designs. The one piece of evdience that we know that AQ Khan was full of crap about setting up Chinese centerfuges was that the Chinese were using Russian designs, not Paksitanis. And the fact that the plant that he claimed to have built was nothing more than dirt when examined by the IAEA.

    Now, it maybe the biggest stroke of luck that India came up with the same design principals but for Pollack at least, this raises questions.

    Originally posted by Blademaster View Post
    India got the centrifuge technology from A.Q. Khan because India wanted to know how far Pakistan has progressed.
    You do know that AQ Khan was not above selling junk which would make any such conclusion about Pakistani nuclear capabilities dubious to say the least.

    Originally posted by Blademaster View Post
    Never mind the warhead blueprints, the real stuff is nuclear enrichment.
    The point being, did India knowingly bought from AQ Khan's network or from middle men whom they don't know it was AQ Khan's network. Do recall that AQ Khan did blame his middlemen for expansion of the network. If it was middlemen, then it would explain why there were no warhead blueprint. India didn't buy them. India was not going to get them. Wheras AQ Khan was not above giving them away as enticements to sales.

    Originally posted by Blademaster View Post
    Without the necessary nuclear materials, it is just a high explosive bomb or a dud. RAW wanted to be able to estimate how much power would Pakistan need to run its centrifuge, how much materials would Pakistan need to make a viable kg of nuclear materials so India could estimate the prowess of Pakistan's nuclear program.
    Considering your own generals quote Hans Kristensen, an open source researcher, it would appear RAW did a poor job at evaluating Paksitani capabilities.

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  • Blademaster
    replied
    Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    I bet there was a huge initial uproar of denial.

    I don't know if the RAW scenario fits the evidence. Lybia and Iran got warhead blueprints. There is no indication that India received the same. The evidence would also suggest that Indian eggheads knew exactly how to modifiy AQ Khan's centifuges to their own needs.
    Well, you are basing your conclusions on nothing but conjecture and innuendo which is pretty much the basis of the armcontrolwonks. We have examined Jeffrey's article and could find no hard fact to base a sustainable conclusion.

    India has mastered its own centrifuge technology before A.Q. Khan did. India got the centrifuge technology from A.Q. Khan because India wanted to know how far Pakistan has progressed. Never mind the warhead blueprints, the real stuff is nuclear enrichment. Without the necessary nuclear materials, it is just a high explosive bomb or a dud. RAW wanted to be able to estimate how much power would Pakistan need to run its centrifuge, how much materials would Pakistan need to make a viable kg of nuclear materials so India could estimate the prowess of Pakistan's nuclear program.

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  • Guest's Avatar
    Guest replied
    I bet there was a huge initial uproar of denial.

    I don't know if the RAW scenario fits the evidence. Lybia and Iran got warhead blueprints. There is no indication that India received the same. The evidence would also suggest that Indian eggheads knew exactly how to modifiy AQ Khan's centifuges to their own needs.

    Leave a comment:


  • Blademaster
    replied
    Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    I know this is completely off tangent but the title of this thread fits this bomb (no pun intended). There is a suggestion that India was AQ Khan's 4th customer

    The Secret Treachery of A.Q. Khan

    It would appear that India did buy somethings from this network but whether they knew it was of Pakistani origins is not answered.
    There was an huge discussion on this at BR and we have come to the conclusion it was the RAW who purchased from A.Q. Khan. How do you find out quickly about the extent of nuclear technology of A.Q. Khan and what kind of nuclear technology he has? Easy. Just buy it from him and see what he can do. It is well known that A.Q. Khan has a very huge ego. A little stroke of massaging of A.Q. Khan's ego and he will spill the beans, er.. brag, about his work.

    Leave a comment:


  • Guest's Avatar
    Guest replied
    I know this is completely off tangent but the title of this thread fits this bomb (no pun intended). There is a suggestion that India was AQ Khan's 4th customer

    The Secret Treachery of A.Q. Khan

    It would appear that India did buy somethings from this network but whether they knew it was of Pakistani origins is not answered.

    Leave a comment:


  • xinhui
    replied
    bye bye. we don't need your fan boy type here.

    Leave a comment:


  • nvishal
    replied
    Hello people. It's been exactly ten days.

    Originally posted by YellowFever
    It's because you're ignoring reality.
    Oh... ignoring reality? Describing the collapse of deterrence(pre and post) is ignoring reality? How silly of me.

    Originally posted by YellowFever
    You can debate with those gentlemen till the cows come home and they will remain civil and courteous.
    Calling me all sorts of names is civil and courteous? Must be a cultural thing. Ignorant me.

    Originally posted by YellowFever
    But once you begin to ignore FACTS
    Facts? lol

    All I have seen from so-called "senior" "respected" members of this board is to resort to name calling and assaults(since you can ban me is the proof that you are right and i am wrong). Isn't it like that?

    Originally posted by Deltacamelately
    *
    *Bullsh!t
    *You have thus proved that you have ZERO knowledge
    *Please provide "illustrations"
    *You are not a debatable subject.
    *You are just sticking yourself out as a chewing toy, unwarranted.
    *Yellow answered you fine on this.
    Waah. Kya argument skills hai. WAB ki shaan hai. Definitely.
    I think Im going to keep myself from replying to your comments in the future.

    Originally posted by Officer of Engineers
    It is extremely idiotic and damned insulting that a fanboy tells military men how to fight a war
    I wasn't telling you "military men" how to fight a war.

    You are interesting member OoE. First you make an arbitrary interpretation about chinese proliferation. Then you ignore the aftermath of a nuclear detonation(pre/post deterrence). Yes, I must be a "fantasizing" "idiot" "armature" "fan boy" et cetera et cetera and et cetera.

    @S2
    As always, your clarification skills are truly amazing. Intimidating quality. Thank you.

    Leave a comment:


  • payeng
    replied
    Originally posted by Deltacamelately View Post
    Payeng,

    The SARDP-NE project as ambitious it is, faces some daunting challenges apart from funding. These are mainly, if not only, related to Law and Order problems in certain areas, delays in environmental and forest clearances, delays in aquisition of land by the revenue departments of the state governments etc.

    Here's a good read from a government site -
    http://mdoner.gov.in/writereaddata/s...7138671461.pdf
    The Arunachal package under SARDP-NE is given top priority, challenges and complexities are being sorted out in a priority basis the SARDP-NE itself is a priority project. Those which might be taken in to granted might slip a bit. Important connectivity for speedy mobilisation of troops to the Northern border of North East should be achieved by 2015. Dhola-Sadiya bridge and the Bogibeel bridge the later with rail links is expected to be completed by 2015, it should help in speedy mobilisation towards the far eastern border, which till now was a pain without air transport. I just wonder with the development of all this links can the Army achieve its benchmark of doing it in 24 hrs flat?

    Government release as per 25th Jan 2012 indicates that Arunachal package should completion by June 2015.
    Press Information Bureau English Releases

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