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Problems for the new Polish Government

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  • snapper
    replied
    Not sure a deal with Muscovy is on the cards for PiS but I am deeply disappointed.

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  • astralis
    replied
    hope things change, otherwise Poland's gonna go the way of Hungary.

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  • snapper
    replied
    Electoral Commission gives it to Duda by 51.2%. PO (Civic Platform) are taking it to the courts alleging 'irregularities'.

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  • snapper
    replied
    Exit poll (though people are still voting) says Duda; 50.4% Trzaskowski 49.6%. This 0.8% is 'within the margin of error' statistically, represents about 180-200,000 votes and does not include votes cast by the diaspora of some 400-500,000. Seems quite possible that diaspora could decide this.

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  • kato
    replied
    Originally posted by snapper View Post
    PiS/TVP slagging off of independent media which they claim is owned/run by or in some way "German" (certainly not entirely accurate).
    Depends on media type. Verlagsgruppe Passau and Springer basically overwhelmed the market for newspapers in the Visegrad countries to the point where they took majority shares.

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  • snapper
    replied
    Presidential election run off in Poland today after the first round 2 weeks ago.

    The incumbent, Andrzej Duda who 'officially' has no Party but who is supported by State TV TVP (supposed to be non partisan) and the Law and Justice (PiS) Party (current Government) won the first round with 43.7% of the vote. Civic Platform (PO) Party candidate Rafał Trzaskowski (the current Mayor of Warsawa) came second with 30.3% of the vote. Third came Szymon Hołownia, an independent centre right candidate with 13.9%. 'Hard right' (like neo fascist) Krzysztof Bosak came 4th (6.9%) then Agrarian Party candidate Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz (2.4%) and Polish People’s Party's Robert Biedroń (2.2%).

    So today is the run off between the top two; Duda vs Trzaskowski. It has not been a well mannered election. Since the two main candidates could not agree on which TV channel a non partisan debate could be held both held 'debates' with the other missing. TVP in particular has gone full anti Semitic loony mad; "Experts have no doubt [that] the stream of money that currently flows from the state budget into the pockets of Polish families will dry up if Trzaskowski, after his possible victory in the presidential election, will seek to satisfy Jewish demands." There has also been alot of talk of LGBT rights (which Trzaskowski supports) and PiS/TVP slagging off of independent media which they claim is owned/run by or in some way "German" (certainly not entirely accurate). Opinion polls say it is a toss up; some put Duda 0.8% ahead others put Trzaskowski ahead by 0.5 to 1%. Duda has had overwhelming 'state media' support which in itself it strictly speaking illegal and Trzaskowski was drafted in late as PO candidate after Małgorzata Maria Kidawa-Błońska backed out in May.

    One of the problems could be if the results are contested since this would be decided by the courts which PiS has spent the last 4yrs politicizing and packing with 'their people'.

    It is the choice of Dmowski or Piłsudski again in many ways. Dmowski was a pre WW2 Polish 'nationalist' who defined 'being Polish' as being white/slavic/Catholic/speaking the language etc... Piłsudski was born in Vilnius (modern day Lithuanian capital) and defined 'being Polish' as a broader alignment to values so one could be a Polish Jew, a Ukrainian Pole, a Lemko Pole etc etc... One is increasingly per-occupied with conformity to some imagined ideal of 'Polishness' and the other more cosmopolitan and outward looking. I voted for Duda last time, I regret it and will not make the same mistake again.

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  • snapper
    replied
    Elections today for the Polish Sejm (Parliament) and exit polls show;

    PiS 43.6%
    Koalicja Europejska 27.4%
    Lewica 11.9%
    PSL 9.6%
    Konfederacja 6.4%

    They forcast that gives PiS a majority of 9. More idiocy to come it seems.

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  • kato
    replied
    Originally posted by snapper View Post
    I seem to recall the 2015 Sejm elections were just above 50%.
    Yeah, but with a relatively large proportion marking their ballots invalid. With those accounted for you're below 50 again.

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  • Doktor
    replied
    Originally posted by kato View Post
    Problem in Poland is that a large proportion of the electorate is not represented in the Sejm at all - partially because the voter turnout is abysmally low (i don't think they've had a valid vote turnout above 50% ever since 1990). Their 8% threshold rule meanwhile ensures that you can effectively govern Poland by gathering only around 20% of the electorate behind you - PiS rules with 18.6% of the electorate having voted for them. There is no left-of-center representation in parliament at all anymore. The number of ballots cast invalid are also insanely high (2.5% in 2015), which hints at the disgust the population has in politics there.
    They can't be at two places at the same time (UK/Poland or Germany/Poland). Can they?

    Why else they wouldn't vote?

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  • snapper
    replied
    I agree that voter turnout in disappointing but I seem to recall the 2015 Sejm elections were just above 50%. The 8% rule is for coalitions; single parties require 5% to have representation in the Sejm. As to left of center... well things are different and PiS is economically and socially more left of center than Civic Platform; higher pensions and support for having more children, more on education etc.

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  • kato
    replied
    Problem in Poland is that a large proportion of the electorate is not represented in the Sejm at all - partially because the voter turnout is abysmally low (i don't think they've had a valid vote turnout above 50% ever since 1990). Their 8% threshold rule meanwhile ensures that you can effectively govern Poland by gathering only around 20% of the electorate behind you - PiS rules with 18.6% of the electorate having voted for them. There is no left-of-center representation in parliament at all anymore. The number of ballots cast invalid are also insanely high (2.5% in 2015), which hints at the disgust the population has in politics there.

    Leave a comment:


  • snapper
    replied
    The Opposition allege that they are trying to build an 'autocratic state' and would cite some rather underhanded dealings in regard to reform of the Constitutional Court but the whole business and distrust between the two main Parties goes back to the 2010 Smolensk air crash.

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  • Ouroboros
    replied
    Are they trying to build a gun with the barrel pointed back at them? Really, if you don't like comics or cartoons this is how you can get your jollies.

    Mistake #3 is a personal favorite especially coming from a scifi fan when criticism is apart of the the eveolution of technology and advancement of society. This stresses the need and brings to mind the benefits of freedom of speech and press. With the other point being that if people can't vent they will find another and perhaps less peaceful way to do it.

    A shame with the Sejm thing too. This makes Mistake #1 the butt, Mistake #2 the bullet and casing, Mistake #3 the bent back barrel. Analogies can be so fun.

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  • tankie
    replied
    I like Krakow . Great cultural city and architecture , just saying .
    Last edited by tankie; 18 Dec 16,, 00:54.

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  • snapper
    replied
    Apparently some PiS people are describing it as an 'attempted coup'... seems ridiculous to me and I do certainly do not agree with restricting press access to the Sejm. They were marching again today, no idea of numbers - my cousins are staying out of it.

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