Ukraine: After the May 25 Election

[Mihais]

And here is the problem.You mix Germans and Russians economically,you lose Europe.You mix Russians and Chinese and you lose Asia and the trade.
So you must balance both situations.

[cirrrocco]

Do I detect a deep seated aura of hatred and contempt?

Never a good idea, it lets the reader build up a mental picture of the individual at the other end of the keyboard.

Let me demonstrate:
It's probable that you've never done a humanities subject at University... otherwise you would likely have a better in-depth, realistic assessment other than your inference.
It's also probable that you don't actually have a grasp of the Westminster system... or concepts of Cabinet.
It's more or less highly probable apart from perhaps the feckless surety of a first year student, the sheer indiscretion of your remark indicates profound base concept.
The personal implications of this could be becoming uncomfortable. But it is through your own hand this is laid bare, no one elses.
The response to the above is a given.

Point taken?

If it isn't, then consider this.

I don't think anyone is remotely surprised that an army from a political society rife with corruption, and an army hierarchy rife with incompetence, infiltration and the rest of it is stupid enough to use cluster munitions, artillery, or other completely retarded methods of gaining control in civilian areas.

Again, politically, do you think it even remotely feasible that as soon as a bunch of goons with guns rock up at local government buildings and say 'this is ours now' that the central government would accept that? That is a rhetorical question.

Do you believe anyone reasoned enough is stupid enough to believe the Ukrainian army is a competent fighting force, directed by competent ministers, using competent methods? This is where political, flesh & steel mechanisms come into contact to form an outcome?! That only appeals to the whimsical arbitrariness of those upset enough to form basic convictions.

Best wishes for a happy & memorable day in a few weeks.

chunder. All your assumptions are just it, assumptions. The moderators here know exactly the locations I have been posting from the last few years and it is not some university :-p. But I do accept the fact that a lot of my posting seems very staccato and drive by'ish and I apologize for that.

All I am doing here is pointing out that there was not as much distaste for your own leadership when you go around spreading democracy , flouting UN rules but when you moral enemy does it, you go ballistic and make silly taunts which actually I felt was very puerile . I kept monitoring the thread for a quite a while before I jumped in. To see the nauseating backhanded antipathy for Putin who did exactly what any one of your countries would have done in its own region under similar circumstances in in my book exceedingly hyprcritical

The Budapest agreement in my view was broken was Vic nuland started plotting who the next president/PM is going to be. why the fuck does the US have to poke around russia's near abroad. yet you have a lot of US/ UK members here talking like their country has not intervened militarily in the last 10 years.

Regarding Australia, have you ever seen it have a independent foreign policy other than what DC emails them the night before. There is no hatred or contempt just telling it for what it is. when I see BF doing his moral evangelizing everywhere, i feel it is time someone shows him the mirror as well.


regarding Ukr, if the govt / army is as inept as you described above, why should the people not have an option to be ruled by someone who's govt is not as corrupt, whose army is not as dastardly . do they not have a choice.

[cirrrocco]

Snapper, Thanks for all those very detailed informative posts btw.

[troung]

To see the nauseating backhanded antipathy for Putin who did exactly what any one of your countries would have done in its own region under similar circumstances in in my book exceedingly hyprcritical

Give us credit, we don't annex the places we liberate.

The Budapest agreement in my view was broken was Vic nuland started plotting who the next president/PM is going to be.

Which of course is Russia's right. Like we do with Canada...

regarding Ukr, if the govt / army is as inept as you described above, why should the people not have an option to be ruled by someone who's govt is not as corrupt, whose army is not as dastardly . do they not have a choice.

But Russia's army is corrupt and dastardly...
=========

Do you know a thing about the regime to which you are willing to sacrifice whole nations? Please reveal their 'caring side' if so.

Not doing anything is not sacrificing them.

Only if subverted. If Russia introduced 'little green men' into Alaska and held a referendum that it return to the 'homeland' etc BS how would the US feel?

We didn't give lease them a naval base knowing they think we are a made up country, we didn't allow them to keep troops there knowing they think we are a made up country, we pay for a serious military...

No Ukraine is 40m + slaves that have broken free and have been Holodomor - ed before. According to some estimates over 7m died. You really believe they wanted Russian 'ownership' then? You believe the Prague Spring and other insurrections in Soviet bloc were not for real maybe? That Eastern European 'dirt bags' haven't tasted the Russian yoke and rejected it? That Katyn and the gulags never happened? That endless numbers 'vanished'?

They weren't actual slaves, Putin is not going to make them actual slaves, nor is he going to create a man made famine via poor planning.

He is not Hitler, he is not Stalin, he is not Napoleon, he is not Ivan the Terrible.

You clearly disagree with the Declaration of Independence

LOL. Not wanting to risk a single American life to protect some made up country doesn't mean I hate freedom.

Some "dirt bag Balkan state" was one small bunch of assassins wishing for national sovereignty. An unreasonable request for the 'dirt bag Eastern Europeans' who you clearly discount as unworthy of the same rights and aspirations as others. .

And the state who sponsored them and the alliance they felt safe to act up under.

Ukraine never asked for war - just better and less corrupt governance yet international laws were broken because of this wish. Do they have a right to govern themselves? If not then neither does any nation.

Let the Ukraine sort that out itself. Not America's business, we shouldn't flush tax payer money into that sewer of a nation.

Our ancestors were born and died defending front lines of which you know little because you never had to. They are still doing it but need time.

"We are the Easternmost White people, you owe us"

No they were not some defenders of Western Civilization then or now.

I am aware you would be willing to cast many to the crocodile but on what basis do they somehow 'belong' to Russian slavery other than proximity to a mobile Russian army?

Not running to the aid of some silly group of people is not casting them to a crocodile.

As for the flags, this shitty rag is ten times worse than anything the baltic veterans are waving

The Swastika is ten time better then flag of the Russian Federation?

The flags of those who fought them are ok in this context.Unlike our latest appeaser,those guys have a history of fighting the greatest evil of all times.

Yeah those Nazis.

And here is the problem.You mix Germans and Russians economically,you lose Europe.You mix Russians and Chinese and you lose Asia and the trade.

So we have to protect all the deadbeats and free riders in between, forever.
Taiwan is criticized for not doing enough to maintain it's freedom, and they have a greater number of modern fighters then all the Eastern Europeans we are expected to protect. Hell Romania flies MiG-21s.

Poland and Hungary and Romania etc did not bring Russian issues 'with them'. Russia has an issue and has had it for centuries.

So we have to protect one group of clowns from another for the next few centuries? It's their problem, either sort it out or invest in real armies.

Bottom line is let the Ukraine sort out the mess it got itself into.

[Chunder]

Regarding Australia, have you ever seen it have a independent foreign policy other than what DC emails them the night before.
.

Yes. But if you'd like to debate the specifics you'd best start another thread.

[JAD_333]

In addition to the vital interests listed by JAD, I would add a 4th saying that America will strive to prevent a single power from dominating the Eurasian landmass. If any one entity can consolidate power over Eurasia they could shut down America's prosperity by denying trade by sea, and would possess the population and economic might to threaten the American homeland.

Steve: This is not a vital interest, but a derivative policy based on our big three interests. In some of the little-read annual DoD reports to Congress a 4th interest is mentioned, namely reduction of the threat of nuclear war, e.g. SALT-like treaties. In any case, while policy may change over time, vital interests never change.

Personally, I would like to see the US supply Ukraine with discounted access to military hardware and training until they can take care of themselves. A helping hand is fine, but I don't see any reason to spill American blood protecting Ukraine.

I raised this very point and got a lecture from OoE on the impracticality of doing so at this time. I've come around to the opinion that we should hold this possibility in reserve as low-level threat to dissuade Moscow from going for a bigger bite of Ukraine.

[Officer of Engineers]

what does this post have to do with Ukr army destroying residential neighborhoods with cluster bombs

The Ukraines, Russia, and the United States are not signatories to the Cluster Munitions Convention. You're making strawman arguements that don't exist.

[snapper]

Rada Elections

I should perhaps explain the 'mixed' election system used in Ukraine: Some, (225 seats or 50% of the total, are elected on the first past the post individual basis. The rest are elected on proportional representation basis once a Party breaks above a 5% vote share of the total. Thus the Parties create 'lists' of potential deputies who may be elected depending on what share of the vote they get in the proportional system and select candidates to stand in the first past the post constituencies. During this election since it was impossible to hold the election in Crimea and some areas of Donetsk and Luhansk those seats remain unfilled.

With 96.57% of the votes counted the leading Party is Prime Minister Arseny Yatsenyuks 'Peoples Front' with 22.22%
Second is 'Blok Poroshenko' with 21.82%
Third is Lviv Mayor Andriy Sadovy's 'Self Reliance' Party with 11.04%
Fourth is the new version of Yanukovych's Party of Regions which now calls itself the 'Opposition Blok' with 9.30%
Fifth is Oleg Liashko's 'Radical Party' with 7.43%
The last to break to the 5% threshold is Yulia Tymoshenko's 'Fatherland' Party with 5.69%

Full list is here; Central Election Commission - 2012-2013 If you click on the Party name you will see which regions votes most for them so for example the 'Peoples Front' got the highest share of the vote (37.54%) in Ivano-Frankivsk. Voter turn out was generally higher in western Ukraine but overall was just over 51%. When Crimea and the occupied of regions of Donbass where the right to vote was witheld are subtracted this rises to over 60%.

In general the pre election polls which predicted a Poroshenko 'landslide' of around 40% were clearly very wrong. It seems almost certain that Yatsenyuk will continue as Prime Minister. The other real surprise was Andriy Sadovy's 'Self Reliance' Party (English website here; Presentation of the political party Samopomich Union :).

[Chunder]

Snapper, "first feelings are always the most natural". What's your basic gut feeling?

[snapper]

Snapper, "first feelings are always the most natural". What's your basic gut feeling?

Personally I am very happy with the results. People overwhelmingly voted for a continuation of reform, apart from 'Opposition Blok' all the Parties above the 5% mark are pro European and therefore pro reform. I am delighted that Yatsenyuk's Party beat Poroshenko's. Poroshenko, though being largely pro reform is more 'old school' big state and corporatist/oligarch friendly and if you want my honest opinion the man's a buffoon, whereas Yatsenyuk is more in favour of the 'Clean Sweep of Everything' approach where needed - and it's frequently the only option. We 'sacked' 14,000 Ministry of the Interior staff a couple of months ago... nobody had ever seen them or knew what they did because they didn't exist except on the computer and on the payroll. This is just one instance in one division of one Ministry. A comprehensive reorganisation of whole state apparatus is required but to give you an example of this three different State organisations operate troops; the SBU (which is supposed to be the intelligence service), the Ministry of the Interior of which the SBU is supposed to be a branch, and the Ministry of Defence. They all formulate their own plans, though normally the SBU organises plan formulation in a committee, have their own supply and acquisition procedures and barely communicate otherwise, the result is massive over spending due to duplication of tasks and a form of order through chaos - cos even when it's chaotic occasionally you get a pattern. It's the same with almost everything - pensions are dealt with by the Ministry of Finance, The Ministry of the Interior and the a special bit of Presidential Staff who all want a say. IDPs (internally displaced people) same... Nobody has clear lines and quite often even if they do there are problems within the Ministries such as corrupt civil servant cliques or x 1000 registered but non existent employees, that stop them functioning as they are supposed to.

You understand a little of why sometimes the 'clean sweep approach' must be applied and right now nowhere is it needed more than in Ministry of Defence which Poroshenko wishes to retain control of in return for making Yatsenyuk Prime Minister (which means the end for the current head of the Bank of Ukraine). Instead of that Yatsenyuk has offered the 'comprehensive overhaul' plan which includes auditing of each Ministries accounts by an independent auditor and to return to the military example, in exchange for a total clear out there the creation of a Chief of Defence Staff (not the Minister of Defence) answerable to the National Security Council with control of all troops. Ministry of the Interior will deal with police issues and the SBU specialist units come under the Military. One section will then be responsible for all acquisition - whether for specialist units or National Guard, another for supply etc etc... but all will be audited and the Minister of Defence held accountable. Obviously major new acquisition project such as the suggested Grippen would need the President's 'ok'. This is clearly the way to go in my view so I am pleased with result. Clean them out, small but effective Government bureaucracy so the money can spent where it's needed. Ukraine has it's best chance to conduct these reforms in it's post Soviet history. I am hopeful.

[Louis]

Ma'am do you think the new Rada can overcome corrupt interests in the Ukrainian govt? Will they acquiesce to the new order? I am buoyed by your optimism, I must say.

[snapper]

Ma'am do you think the new Rada can overcome corrupt interests in the Ukrainian govt? Will they acquiesce to the new order? I am buoyed by your optimism, I must say.

They have the best chance they've ever had. Negotiations are going on at as I write about the extent of reforms that should/can be done. Poroshenko thinks his group in the Rada should be the basis of a coalition Government and they have a document 2/3rds of which is reform proposals. Yatsensyuk's group, as they 'won' the election, clearly think their group should form the basis of coalition - you know how these types are - and their entire document is reforms that need dealing with (in their view). The reformers either way have total sway but will need guidance and support to get through the painful bits to see the good times.

[omon]

Ma'am do you think the new Rada can overcome corrupt interests in the Ukrainian govt? Will they acquiesce to the new order? I am buoyed by your optimism, I must say.

i think we all know the answer. but lets wait a year and see everything for ourselves, may be even less than a year

[Mihais]

Depends on how many warriors survive the battle.

[Garry]

Like it or not, this is a Ukrainian Civil War. Whether you think Crimea loved Moscow or not, there is absolutely no doubt the majority fighting and dying on both sides are Ukrainian borned. Choosing sides in this is damned ugly and no good outcome. Brother and sister are already hating each other and there is no doubt in my mind that not a few Russians involved have family in the Ukraines and vice versa.

The Russians are the Ukrainians brothers and sisters. Eventually, like all families, they will heal. Then they will start hating those who got involved in their fight.

I support the Ukrainians but no way in hell do I want to come into this divorce.

Sir, thank you for that. Once in a while I read a real wise statement in this forum filled with shortsighted people. It is a civil war... and this civil war rages in hearts and minds of people in Ukraine and Russia. Great catastrophy for Russia and for Ukraine.

For foreigners it is better to stay away.... the parties has just started killing each other... both still hope for millitary victory.... too early for peace... long fighting is ahead. Only after they bleed out, they hate and revenge bleeds out foreigners may come and intermediate.

probably united Ukraine is gone.... there is a slim chance that some Bosnia type quazi state will emerge.... but unlikely. This is the big catastrophy for Russia... Indeed, a united and pro-Russian Ukraine was the best scenario for Russia. Now it will have a war torn pro Russian east (not sure about south) of Ukraine and very anti-Russian Center-North-West. Same for Europe, with this sanctions they are getting Russians and Ukrainian-Russians into their direct enemies....

now my expectations..... if Russia learns that sanctions are getting harder and Europeans will continue following instructions from USA, they will crack Ukrainian rule in the South-East.... the only were two reasons why they stopped after Illowaysk - 1) Putin wanted to negotiate with Europe and push for united-neutral-Ukraine, he was not yet convienced that point of no return was passed. 2) he was afraid of the new Russian nationalists leaders emerging in Donbass. Once he realizes and reconfirms that Europeans will continue following USA instructions he may restart the conflict and reinforce Donbass to conquer rest of the South-East, or more. Ukrainian army has no chance to win a millitary war against rebels if Russia stands behind them. This contry splits into two

Alternativelly, Europe starts betrading Ukraine, Russia keeps support of Donbass limited.... civil war rages for while, both sides bleed out.... they start negotiating for peace. And quazi-Bosnia state may emerge under the name of united Ukraine.

I don't see the scenario where Urkainian army wins and country re-unites under the existing Kiev government and west-ukrainian nationalists. Russia will simply not let this happen

as for the west. Sanctions never won any civil war.... there are only two alternatives - to intervene or to stay away. The second is much better for all involved.