Ukraine Elections and Political Developments

[Skywatcher]

So Putin's speech today (in full here; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iDGvrdqQZVY&t=6220s skip to 1hr15m for military bit) he claims they have broken the laws of physics - at least as I understand them. He claims they have a nuclear powered cruise missile. I am no expert at these things but I understood nuclear powered rockets were problematic for scientific reasons. Anyone know about this?

Furthermore he claims they have developed hypersonic missiles with "unlimited range" - it will literally go on "forever" (at 1hr30m). Now I studied philosophy of science - not science itself - but to me that seems to break the laws of nature. He seems to be claiming to have created perpetual motion without additional energy input in a missile system. If it was possible all energy would theoretically be free for everyone if mass produced. A 'perfect machine' is impossible - some energy is always lost due to inertia etc... let alone a missile that produces it's own 'limitless' energy. Don't deal with many scientists on a daily basis at present so if any science buffs here have a thought I'd be interested to hear it.

That nuclear ramjet cruise missile?

Good luck hiding it from anyone with a half functioning radiation detector (and I'd love to see it try to dodge something like a SM-6 or PLXX).

As for that long range nuclear torpedo, its going to be heard across the ocean (a 500-600 ton robot submarine can't really put much in the way of acoustic dampening). And unlike the Papa and Alfa submarines, I doubt its onboard computer is smart enough to dodge enemy attacks coming at it.

[Ironduke]

But can it go forever?

If the technology were perfected, a nuclear powered ramjet or scramjet missile would have "unlimited" range in the sense that a nuclear-powered submarine or aircraft carrier have "unlimited" range. It's certainly not meant to imply perpetual motion or free energy. A missile powered by conventional fuel is limited in range in proportion to the amount of fuel it carries, same with conventionally powered ships. "Unlimited" range in the sense only means for all practical purposes, relative to conventionally fueled variants.

Nuclear powered missiles might be practical in a strictly military sense, but like nuclear powered aircraft, the collateral damage via unintended radiological contamination through both operation and potential accidents is the reason why nobody's bothered to push forward with them. Yeah, it can be done. It's just an extremely dangerous technology to use where the risks are viewed to outweigh potential gains.

This may help: Supersonic Low Altitude Missile

What the Colonel was referring to: Fractional Orbital Bombardment System

[NUS]

To the extent that he has "zero interest" in annexing the DNR/LNR, it's because he has 100% interest in using them to continue blocking the Ukrainians' westward aspirations. Even if Ukraine were to willingly offer to cede those territories to Russia, Putin would refuse them because a frozen conflict there is what ultimately serves his foreign policy interests.

Rofl.

So, in your opinion, Crimea is natural part of Russia and never really was Ukranian? Putin does not need DNR/LNR to prevent the Ukraine from joining NATO, he have Crimea.

Also, Northern Cyprus.

[Ironduke]

So, in your opinion, Crimea is natural part of Russia and never really was Ukranian? Putin does not need DNR/LNR to prevent the Ukraine from joining NATO, he have Crimea.

It was legally part of Ukraine and Putin went in and grabbed it, in my view, for strategic reasons. Russia signed treaties recognizing post-Soviet borders with respect to Ukraine, and the means Russia used to justify taking it over are nothing but a legal fiction.

Germany has as much right to ex-Konigsberg as Russia does to Crimea.

Putin with his ex-Soviet worldview is terrified of NATO and he goes around where he can setting up separatist regions in ex-Soviet nations when they're on the verge of exercising any aspirations contrary to his wishes. He'd do it in the Baltics if he could get away with it, he'd do it to Belarus in the unlikely event it ever started having EU and NATO talks, and he'd even do the same in the north of Kazakhstan if it had somewhere else to turn to. He even tried a coup in Montenegro to stop it from joining NATO.

The Baltics got lucky and got into NATO back in the 90s, and luckily they get to be normal European countries. The kind where journalists don't end up murdered and dissidents don't end up taking polonium in their tea.

For all the other ex-Soviet nations, it's either subsume your national interests to those of Putin, or Putin will come at you like a jilted boyfriend from some third world country and throw acid on his ex-girlfriend's face so she'll never be able to marry anyone else or have a normal life.

This is Putin's psychology. The jilted ex-boyfriend throwing acid in his ex-girlfriend's face.

Also, Northern Cyprus.

But what about...

[Ironduke]

US approves sale of 210 antitank missiles to Ukraine

The State Department has officially approved a possible $47 million sale of Javelin antitank missiles and related equipment to Ukraine, the Pentagon announced Thursday.

The move marks a significant escalation of lethal aid to Ukraine in its ongoing struggles against Russia.

“This proposed sale will contribute to the foreign policy and national security of the United States by improving the security of Ukraine,” the Defense Security Cooperation Agency said in its official notice. “The Javelin system will help Ukraine build its long-term defense capacity to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity in order to meet its national defense requirements. Ukraine will have no difficulty absorbing this system into its armed forces.

"The proposed sale of this equipment and support will not alter the basic military balance in the region."

Congress was officially notified of the sale Thursday, according to the notice.

That sets off a 30-day clock for Congress to block the sale if it so chooses. But lawmakers from both parties have been broadly supportive of selling lethal defensive weapons to Ukraine.

“Ukraine is a critical ally to the United States, and I am so pleased to see our country provide this long-overdue assistance in Ukraine’s fight to push back against growing Russian aggression,” Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) said in a statement Thursday after comments from Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko indicated the weapons approval was imminent. “Providing lethal aid to Ukraine shows that the United States is serious about protecting the interests of our nation and our allies.”

On Wednesday, Poroshenko said the “first delivery should happen in a very few weeks.”

http://thehill.com/policy/defense/37...les-to-ukraine

[snapper]

Following the ruling of the Stockholm Chamber of Commerce Arbitration service broadly in favour of Ukrainian gas supplier Naftogaz against Gazprom earlier this week Gazprom has taken it upon itself to unilaterally cancel ALL contracts with Naftogaz - INCLUDING TRANSIT CONTRACTS for other European customers via Ukraine. All gas supply was cut last night. See http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-43260668 a contract is now proposed with Polish PGNiG.

Lovely people that the Germans propose to become more dependent on via North Stream 2.

[Ironduke]

Out of curiosity, does Ukraine have any plans to cancel visa-free access to Russia and vice versa? What would be the implications if that were to happen?

[kato]

Out of curiosity, does Ukraine have any plans to cancel visa-free access to Russia and vice versa? What would be the implications if that were to happen?

Various elements in the Ukrainian regime have been entertaining such plans for years, Poroshenko's party is opposed to it.

The problem with it is that Russia would retaliate by requiring Ukrainians to obtain visa too - which is far more significant than the other way around. There are literally millions of Ukrainians visiting Russia each year, and three million Ukrainians permanently living in Russia - and that doesn't include the (variably set) number of refugees from Donetsk.

[snapper]

Out of curiosity, does Ukraine have any plans to cancel visa-free access to Russia and vice versa? What would be the implications if that were to happen?

The current visa free period is 90 days I believe. You then have to leave Ukraine (or Muscovy) and come back in to get another 90 days. Some named Moskals are on a 'no entry' sanctions and are not even given overflight permission. I am not sure cancelling would have any significant effect to our benefit. The nationals of some countries (Moldova and Georgia and a few others) can come to Ukraine visa free indefinitely. It would certainly disrupt those Ukrainians living and working in Muscovy and would annoy those who have family ties there. It is more like 'sector sanctions' than targeted sanctions against the guilty a la Magnitsy.

The 'gas war' did not last long... It seems the idea was to cause problem between Ukraine and those who receive supply via Ukraine. Gazprom it seems expected Naftogaz to stop the onward supply - which has happened in the past so was an understandable expectation. Instead Naftogaz this time maintained onward supply and received additional supply from PGNiG for domestic supply - so a new bout of love for Poland. Naftogaz asked people to turn down their thermostats 2 degrees and it resulted in a 14% decrease in consumption overnight. Late last night Gazprom started supply again. Apparently (and I am not sure this is true as I have not yet seen the full Stockholm arbitration judgement) Gazprom must also pay $500,000 for every day that the $2.56bn is not payed. Looks like hook, line and sinker to Naftogaz here. Naftogaz under their new management have indeed come a long way. They payed 6bln UAH in taxes in January too.

It seems Moscow has still not learned the fundamental truth that the more they attack Ukraine the more they unite it and the more they drive it toward to their western neighbours. Some TV station did a straw poll (not scientific) and 86% of respondents said they'd rather freeze than give in to Moskal blackmail. Whatever it was aimed at it failed and just made Ukraine more united and helped our relations with Poland. I cannot imagine that is what Moscow wants.

In other new this Belarusian Lady of dubious reputation who goes by the name of Nastya Rybka is offering info about what she says she knows regarding Deripaska and the US elections - which may be minimal - to anyone who can get her out of prison in Thailand (though perhaps not Patrushev who is responsible for her incarceration).

[snapper]

The PGNiG statement:

"The current situation around gas supply proves that our focus on diversification of supplies was the right decision. Thanks to our Polish partners, yet another attempt of Moscow to use gas as a political weapon against Ukraine has failed. I hope that the EU and governments of the relevant member states will consider this case when making their final decision on Nord Stream 2 ,” commented Naftogaz CEO Andriy Kobolyev.

“Energy solidarity and good cooperation between neighboring countries is our duty. Especially now that Ukraine has problems with deliveries from Russia and the demand for natural gas for household heating purposes has been on the rise due to harsh winter conditions”, said Piotr Woźniak, President of PGNiG Management Board. Mr. Woźniak also explained that “We are prepared to increase the volume of deliveries or extend the effective term of the contract, depending on Ukrainian market demand. PGNiG can ensure stable and secure gas supplies thanks to its diversified portfolio of, which is a mix of domestic production in Poland and import supplies including regular deliveries of LNG from Qatar and USA."

http://en.pgnig.pl/news/-/news-list/...hangeYear=2018

[Ironduke]

Last decade I viewed Ukraine as a cleft country. Even just taking a cursory look at electoral results maps, I had concerns for the future viability of the state. I'm not by any means an expert on the matter, but if you'd asked me in 2006 what the future of Ukraine would be, it would be that the southern/eastern half would eventually accede to Russia while the western half would be left as a rump Ukraine. It seemed for awhile there was a danger of that possibly happening with the events of 2014.

Despite the losses of limited territories in Donetsk and Luhansk to these Russian-supported separatist entities and the loss of Crimea, one thing is for certain. Ukrainian nationalism, however previously shaky, has been born/re-born with a vengeance with Putin's aggressions. Russia has no more cards left to play.

This is a bit tangential, and not really a direct parallel, but back in the 1770s/80s the US was keen on having the North American colonies in what's now Canada join the US. The war ended and our independence was won, and many of the Loyalists who sided with the Empire went into exile up north as the United Empire Loyalists. One of our aims when war re-started in 1812 was to go north and incorporate those territories into the US, and all we ended up doing was inadvertently creating a firm Canadian national identity, and the genesis for a new nation was born.

Any hopes Russia ever had of re-incorporating Ukraine are forever gone, even in that part of the country that was historically pro-Russian over the last 27 years. Something to be thankful for, even though Russia continues to illegally occupy Ukrainian territory.

[snapper]

I am not sure regional voting patterns mean much about a country splitting up.

Polish election map of 2015:



French voting map of 2017:



But the fact is if any country is attacked the reaction is to more united and have an increased sense of patriotism and self sacrifice. In some ways we should be thanking them.

[Ironduke]

I am not sure regional voting patterns mean much about a country splitting up.

The way that I saw it back then was that Ukraine was a "cleft" country in the sense Samuel Huntington (author of The Clash of Civilizations) would have described it, torn between the Western Civilization on the one hand, and what he described as "Orthodox" civilization to the East.

I'm not saying I'm a proponent of or accept Huntington's theories wholesale, but the idea that Ukraine was a cleft country certainly made sense at the time. So far, it seems the issue of where Ukraine belongs has been more or less settled in the aftermath of the 2014 revolution.

[Officer of Engineers]

This is a bit tangential, and not really a direct parallel, but back in the 1770s/80s the US was keen on having the North American colonies in what's now Canada join the US. The war ended and our independence was won, and many of the Loyalists who sided with the Empire went into exile up north as the United Empire Loyalists. One of our aims when war re-started in 1812 was to go north and incorporate those territories into the US, and all we ended up doing was inadvertently creating a firm Canadian national identity, and the genesis for a new nation was born.

Not an apt analogy. US and Canada became family. The Ukraines and Russia was family and will be family again once Putin leaves the scene. The Ukraines and Russia had sided against the West far more than they have fought each other. WWII was the last big example but in 1997, the Ukrainians was firmly on Moscow's side to dictate terms in Kosovo.

Putin may not have any cards left to play but that is a far cry from saying the Ukrainians and the Russians don't see each other as family.

[Ironduke]

Not an apt analogy. US and Canada became family.

Yes, we did.

The Ukraines and Russia was family and will be family again once Putin leaves the scene. The Ukraines and Russia had sided against the West far more than they have fought each other. WWII was the last big example but in 1997, the Ukrainians was firmly on Moscow's side to dictate terms in Kosovo.

Putin may not have any cards left to play but that is a far cry from saying the Ukrainians and the Russians don't see each other as family.

With that, I don't agree. First of all, irredentism is a intensely strong force for continued alienation and hostility. Second, the thousands Ukrainians who've died as a result of fighting Russian and pro-Russian forces.

The longer this drags out, and the more Ukraine integrates itself into the European economy and de-integrates itself from the Russian one, the more Ukrainian is taught in school and used in public life and Russian is cast aside, and everything else that's going on, the less and less likely it's going to become they're going to go back to being family. And again, the irredentism and dead Ukrainians factor.