Ukraine Elections and Political Developments

[snapper]

Certainly some of the extreme right wing types did not accept the agreement and yes by February the 'revolution' had won over all the local Government and law and order forces not only Western Ukraine but in Central Ukraine and in Dnipro (as it is called now) and Kharkiv; the main reason being the January 16 'Dictatorship Laws'. I was mostly in Western Ukraine at the time and did not get to Kyiv - except for some brief visits - until the 22nd Feb. The Lviv Berkut arrived in Kyiv on the morning of 22nd and I in the evening. I was there on much of what happened in Western Ukraine and it was not so much "capturing" Government buildings - there was some shouting at times but very little violence - I never saw any violence myself but some did happen - it was more of a getting them not to arrest everyone problem. Some of them obviously came over to our side but none were prepared to fire on their own people thankfully and either ignored or helped with the protest movement.

From my point of view at the time - when I did not know what I know now - Yanukovych had already lost. We had Kyiv blockaded almost - prices rose 15% in February in Kyiv. Signing the 'agreement' was his last option to have any say. I did however say to a friend the night of the 21st that I would not be surprised if he ran - and we had people watching the airports already. What made his position untenable in my view was the killing of the "Heavenly Hundred" on the 20th. He could never really be feasible after over 100 people had been killed in a day in central Kyiv. How could he answer the questions about it? He had decided to run to Donbass before he signed the 'agreement' most likely.

[Skywatcher]

Yanukovych reminds me of Mugabe; a kleptocrat who underestimated* the willingness of anyone to die for his regime once things got close to civil war.

*And a lot of other people, granted.

[snapper]

Mugabe had more spine but the bigger they come the harder the fall is always true; Sic semper tyrannis.

[Ironduke]

https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-pol...nvoys-say.html

Ukraine has to do more than adopt NATO standards, alliance envoys say

Ukrainian Defense Minister Stepan Poltorak stirred skepticism in Ukraine when he told U.S. international broadcaster Voice of America in an interview on Feb. 3 that Ukraine was already 90 percent of the way to adopting NATO standards.

Ukraine’s ambitious plan to reform its military, bringing it into line with the alliance by 2020, was only started in 2016. But while defense spending has skyrocketed in recent years, reaching $6 billion or nearly 6 percent of the gross domestic product, the defense sector remains inefficient and corrupt.

And NATO’s envoys in Ukraine don’t completely share Poltorak’s optimism. Although many changes for the better have already been made, Kyiv still has a long to-do list, and several important milestones have to be passed in 2018 alone.

Moreover, truly successful defense reform doesn’t just mean ticking off changes as they are made.

The transformation requires a fundamental change in the mindset of the Ukrainian military and its embrace of the spirit of Euro-Atlantic principles, NATO officials say.

Ambitious plan

Alexander Vinnikov, the head of the NATO Liaison Office in Ukraine, acknowledges that good work has been done.

“Clearly, over the past three years, ever since the beginning of Russia’s aggression, Ukraine’s defense forces have come a very long way,” Vinnikov told the Kyiv Post during a recent interview. “Their tactical and technical capabilities have increased significantly, and they continue to benefit from training and equipping programs that are provided by several NATO allies.”

Besides, the Defense Ministry has done “laudable work” on practical problems facing the army that required prompt solutions, such as the proper provision of food, medical aid, equipment, uniforms, and logistics, Vinnikov said.

“Last year we recognized that there was progress in many areas of defense reform, including areas like capability-based planning, the implementation of a Unified Medical Command and significant improvement in the training and development of non-commissioned officers,” he said.

Ukraine’s plan to come into full compliance with NATO standards by late 2020 is contained in the Strategic Defense Bulletin, a step-by-step roadmap with a timeline of reforms signed by President Petro Poroshenko in June 2016.

While praising the Ukrainian plan, the alliance points out its drawbacks – particularly in terms of Ukraine’s “moving from designing and planning reforms, to actually implementing them,” Vinnikov said.

“For instance, many of the new departments and units that have been created in the Defense Ministry and the General Staff are not yet fully staffed with properly trained and experienced personnel,” he said.

Ukraine’s defense reforms should be systemic and comprehensive, he added, “so that they can become sustainable in the longer term – and also irreversible.”

[Ironduke]

End in sight for Transdnietr?

It looks like the pro-Russian PRSM is in the lead for the upcoming 2019 elections in Moldova. What consequences do you think this will have for Ukraine if the PRSM prevails in these elections?

[snapper]

Moldova is a Romanian problem - quite a few Moldovans have Romanian passports and would like to see a reunification of the two. I cannot see the Romanians allowing Muscovite troops in Moldova so it is not a problem for Ukraine per se where as Transdniestria with it's Muscovite 'peace keepers' and rampant crime is a shared Ukrainian/Romanian problem. Mihais probably knows more than I about Moldovan affairs.

[Ironduke]

Currently Kremlin provides DNR and LNR with enough resources to survive (for internal policy reasons), but has zero interest in them.

Complete and total BS. Russia's interest in DNR/LNR, South Ossetia, Transnistria, and Abkhazia is to prevent the accession of Moldova, Ukraine, and Georgia to NATO and the EU.

If the Baltic countries hadn't already acceded to NATO/EU earlier, Putin would be doing the same thing there.

NATO Treaty, Chapter 1:

States which have ethnic disputes or external territorial disputes, including irredentist claims, or internal jurisdictional disputes must settle those disputes by peaceful means in accordance with OSCE principles. Resolution of such disputes would be a factor in determining whether to invite a state to join the Alliance.

Putin knows that NATO will not, and the EU will likely not allow the accession of members who are a party to an active territorial dispute, which he cynically exploits to prevent their accession. If these countries want to be part of the CIS or EEU of their own volition, fine. If they don't, Putin goes in and grabs a chunk of territory and supports a separatist movement to prevent them from doing anything else.

To the extent that he has "zero interest" in annexing the DNR/LNR, it's because he has 100% interest in using them to continue blocking the Ukrainians' westward aspirations. Even if Ukraine were to willingly offer to cede those territories to Russia, Putin would refuse them because a frozen conflict there is what ultimately serves his foreign policy interests.

[snapper]

So Putin's speech today (in full here; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iDGvrdqQZVY&t=6220s skip to 1hr15m for military bit) he claims they have broken the laws of physics - at least as I understand them. He claims they have a nuclear powered cruise missile. I am no expert at these things but I understood nuclear powered rockets were problematic for scientific reasons. Anyone know about this?

Furthermore he claims they have developed hypersonic missiles with "unlimited range" - it will literally go on "forever" (at 1hr30m). Now I studied philosophy of science - not science itself - but to me that seems to break the laws of nature. He seems to be claiming to have created perpetual motion without additional energy input in a missile system. If it was possible all energy would theoretically be free for everyone if mass produced. A 'perfect machine' is impossible - some energy is always lost due to inertia etc... let alone a missile that produces it's own 'limitless' energy. Don't deal with many scientists on a daily basis at present so if any science buffs here have a thought I'd be interested to hear it.

[snapper]

In other news Naftogaz (the Ukrainian national gas supplier and transit company) won the long running case against Gazprom: Gazprom must pay net US$2.56 billion to Naftogaz. The ruling also has it's downsides - Naftogaz must buy 5bn cubic metres of gas from Gazprom this year. https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-uk...-idUKKCN1GC2ZF

[Ironduke]

He might just be Kim Jong-Uning us.

I got a laugh out of the quality of the animation in the demonstration video. Looks like something a 13 year old slapped together on a 2 hour deadline before the speech.

The delivery device in the video looks like the X-43, which was scramjet powered. The Russians have their own GLL scramjet program.

[snapper]

Well they recently got caught portraying their effective strikes from some video game shots. I simply do not believe these claims myself. Just bluster on a subject nobody can check him on - it all being Top Secret etc - with an election coming next month. The bigger the lie the better etc... Murdering dwarf.

[Officer of Engineers]

So Putin's speech today (in full here; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iDGvrdqQZVY&t=6220s skip to 1hr15m for military bit) he claims they have broken the laws of physics - at least as I understand them. He claims they have a nuclear powered cruise missile. I am no expert at these things but I understood nuclear powered rockets were problematic for scientific reasons. Anyone know about this?

Furthermore he claims they have developed hypersonic missiles with "unlimited range" - it will literally go on "forever" (at 1hr30m). Now I studied philosophy of science - not science itself - but to me that seems to break the laws of nature. He seems to be claiming to have created perpetual motion without additional energy input in a missile system. If it was possible all energy would theoretically be free for everyone if mass produced. A 'perfect machine' is impossible - some energy is always lost due to inertia etc... let alone a missile that produces it's own 'limitless' energy. Don't deal with many scientists on a daily basis at present so if any science buffs here have a thought I'd be interested to hear it.

It's called Low Earth Orbit.

[snapper]

But can it go forever?

A quick note on "Nastya Rybka" (her real name is Anastasia Vashukevitch) the Belarussian Lady of perhaps loose morals who featured in a recent Navalny video with regard to Deripaska and Sergey Prichodko on a yacht etc... This unfortunate young Lady has wound up under arrest in Thailand just a few days after Patrushev visited. The charges seem unclear to me but there's an article about it here: http://defencereport.com/arrest-of-e...investigation/

[Ironduke]

She doesn't deserve the bad things she undoubtedly has coming for her, but she played the game and she got burned. She knew how things play out in Russia.

I seriously doubt she has any evidence of any value to offer US prosecutors. She probably wasn't aware of any deeper implications concerning Deripaska and Prikhodko until Navalny brought it up. US authorities are not going intervene on behalf.

[snapper]

To me, she like our Ukrainian (and other) dead - and theirs - she is just another victim of the Chekist Mafia state that has used her, chewed her up and spat her out to rot. She deserves help and sympathy regardless of what she knows but as a person and a Lady. That is the point surely. We care about them. It also encourages others who may know more obviously to seek refuge and share their knowledge. No, 'defection' should be encouraged.