Serbia-the autopsy report

[Mihais]

The guys from SAJ are nothing but excellent.I tend to disagree with Versus.Serbia makes it's own copies from good designs.I saw copies of theCZ 99 and heard of copied MP5 .About numbers,the Albanians aren't that numerous that they cannot be handled by the army and police,as they are today.Besides,as Bosnia showed,volunteers are plenty.Most of those ex-Serb soldiers now in retirement or serving as contractors abroad will return to active duty or form militias.Recruits can be trained in 6 months well enough to fight light infantry or guerillas.The most important thing is to have cadres and a weapons industry(and,of course,will).
A long war will make those good looking men resemble ghosts.But by then a lot more foes will be skeletons.
Btw,if you want to use Reapers,you need the ''fancy'' guys as well.They work in team.
There is nothing on Kosovo's side to resemble the professionalism of the Serbs.There will be fanaticism,desperation and the will to defend their homes.But that's not enough.
If the chaps in Sanjak are the problem,that's even more doable.

[cyppok]

Sanjak is very mixed. Some of those Muslims are Serbs as well not many but still.
Population is around 250k doubt it will have problems, to many different people. What would be the point of an uprising? they don't really want to join Kosovo or anyone else, I am sure they are fine where they are.

[Versus]

No Cyppok,they are not fine. The Sanjak region is geographically located between Bosnia and Kosovo. It's geography is a mixture of Chechnya and Afghanistan and the mentality is similar to the highlander tribal type. Sanjak is in fact an fossilized artifact of the Ottoman empire and it gravitates towards Bosnia. There are two types of mentalities there, the urban and the rural. In the cities, muslims are mostly peaceful and mind their own business but in the hills and mountain regions, more radical groups reside. They are stuck in time, very traditional and very hostile since they carry the burden of history. At the begging of 20th century, as the Serbia was engaged in numerous war campaigns in the First Balkan war as it tried to push the Ottoman empire from the territories it considered theirs. The Sanjak region was taken or liberated, depending on a point of view, during the first Balkan War. The man whom commanded the Serbian army units in that operation, was no other than the General Frantiseh Zach, the man whom brought the infamous "draft" document into Serbia. During that time,Serbs were trying to eradicate any Ottoman influence so their actions towards the population in Sanjak were brutal. But again, it was perfectly normal to do those things than. However, the ethnic cleansing was incomplete and in the highlands, Muslims remained. The strong resentment toward Serbia settled in and remained intact till today. There were various outbreaks of hostilities,killings and purges, during the WW1 and during the Kingdom of Yugoslavia. During the WW2, situation got even worse. There were numbers of crimes committed against Sanjak Muslims but also crimes committed by the Sanjak Muslims. They formed the alliance with the Albanians from Kosovo and went on to Bosnia to massacre Serbian population there as well as in Kosovo, Montenegro and Sanjak itself. For the Muslims whom joined communist partisans, goal remained the same, they didn't wanted to become a part of Serbia yet they wanted, just as Kosovo, to be a republic. And just as Kosovo, ideology doesn't matter the goal is always the territory and independence, so the internal party security eliminated the leaders of muslim partisans in order to "iron" the resistance movement. During the Titio's regime, things continued to be ironed more or less but the growing standard of living was more than enough to put aside the ethnic strife. When the collapse of Yugoslavia accrued, the Sanjak muslims took the arms and went to Bosnia to fight against Bosnian Serbs and when the Kosovo war started they went there to fight alongside the Albanians. Even before the war in Bosnia, Sanjak Muslims were arming themselves and on couple of occasions situation was close to eruption.The federal govt responded by sending additional military units in order to claim the situation and after agreement the Muslims were partly disarmed.That was the reason why I was stationed there.

So today, they are trying to organize the revolt that resembles the ones in the middle east, but for a completely different reason. While the revolutions in the middle east are fueled with the population growth and hunger, Sanjak muslims are pure separatist movement and their resentment is based on the religious ethnic hostility towards Serbia.

[cyppok]

Notice they can be reasoned with and my guess is they realize the geopolitical situation of linking with Bosnia is very improbable. Bosnia will get split sooner or later no idea what happens though. I think your make the situation seem more explosive than it really is, the likelihood of autonomy is low to none at this point. They are seperated from bosnia by somewhat homogenous population in the counties to the west. Actual population is very mixed and while some supported Bosniaks in Bosnia there was no critical mass to have an uprising within the province itself ergo if they had to leave to fight it actually shows that the province was stable enough (even with government intervention) to prevent an upheval.


Bosnia
Like I mentioned to you earlier once the financial assistance goes, the SHTF.
Bosnia and Herzegovina - Financial Assistance - Enlargement
Notice the assistance is topped out with marginal growth flat, ergo soon it comes down. It does not promote growth or lower unemployement just creates a culture where graft of foreign assistance is quietly practiced until there is no more. Then tax to survive after asisstance runs out and quiet collapse of the economy. Those whom were most reliant on assistance the gov't beuracrats will suffer the most as well as those whom are in turn reliant on them.
Balkans.com Business News : Bosnia and Herzegovina is set to lose ?96 million in pre-accession funding from the EU because of internal political divisions

Michael Roberts - 15.09.2011

Bosnia and Herzegovina is set to lose €96 million in pre-accession funding from the European Union because of internal political divisions, according to diplomats.

Why did they challenge? simple they have the least to loose and they are playing their card to gain something no clue what that was denied to them. So simply preventing the "aid receipt" hurts the one who "distributes it" and benefits from it the most.

[1979]

The guys from SAJ are nothing but excellent.I tend to disagree with Versus.Serbia makes it's own copies from good designs.I saw copies of theCZ 99 and heard of copied MP5 .About numbers,the Albanians aren't that numerous that they cannot be handled by the army and police,as they are today.Besides,as Bosnia showed,volunteers are plenty.Most of those ex-Serb soldiers now in retirement or serving as contractors abroad will return to active duty or form militias.Recruits can be trained in 6 months well enough to fight light infantry or guerillas.The most important thing is to have cadres and a weapons industry(and,of course,will).
A long war will make those good looking men resemble ghosts.But by then a lot more foes will be skeletons.
Btw,if you want to use Reapers,you need the ''fancy'' guys as well.They work in team.
There is nothing on Kosovo's side to resemble the professionalism of the Serbs.There will be fanaticism,desperation and the will to defend their homes.But that's not enough.
If the chaps in Sanjak are the problem,that's even more doable.

The issue is timing , until you call them up and train them (which gets out) the other size can escalate by either calling your bluff or taking your provocation seriously.
either way is better to have a one month buffer than 6 months.

Versus reply .


why the Swedish model and not the Finish one ?

[Doktor]

The issue is timing , until you call them up and train them (which gets out) the other size can escalate by either calling your bluff or taking your provocation seriously.
either way is better to have a one month buffer than 6 months.

If we are talking better, it's the best to have them now.

Versus reply .


why the Swedish model and not the Finish one ?

I am lost. What Swedish, Finnish model?

[1979]

Sweden maintains armed neutrality but no conscripts.

Finland does.

If we are talking better, it's the best to have them now.

anyone called from reserve needs a shake up period .

[Versus]

The issue is timing , until you call them up and train them (which gets out) the other size can escalate by either calling your bluff or taking your provocation seriously.
either way is better to have a one month buffer than 6 months.

Versus reply .


why the Swedish model and not the Finish one ?

Hm,this will be a long answer.
The Milosevic's rule is seen as period of armed conflict, violence and crime. It lasted for 10 years and in that 10 years, Serbia became isolated, despised, humiliated and defeated. It also was accused for war crimes and ethnic cleansing. So on every aspect, the very name of Serbia now days, is tied to every negative aspect you can think of. Even here, I am consider to be an enemy of the free world (as the O.E. stated on my remarks about stealth).
So once Milosevic regime was taken down, that “new” Serbia emerged. The one which will break up with the past. Armed forces were among first to be transformed and that was done in several steps.

1.Step one-looks matters (the change of visual identity and structure).
During the war, bunch of soldiers were conscripts, various war profiteers and para military groups. Their actions were unprofessional, often clouded with the desire for revenge,hate or pure psychotic behavior. As well desire to loot as much as they could. There was a very little military skill involved in all this. The Croats,Bosnian Muslims and Kosovo Albanians, invested heavily into their PR effort in portraying Serbs as mindless barbarians whom want to destroy everything that civilization stands for and to present themselves as civilized,mission driven,professional forces whom fight for their land in war for freedom against Serbian madness and communism. This picture of a Serbian soldier as a pure nationalistic, psychotic drunken mindless barbarian has been seeded into the public mind, both in Serbia and around the world. So the Serbian army needed a new identity that will fix that picture. It was seen as obsolete so the new image is formed, right out of video games and movies,the image of 21st century Serbian soldier. Of course women are encouraged to serve as well and all this effort was made in order to transform the looks of the Serbian military and break off from the civil war period. So the punch line was placed on the idea of small, well trained, professional force that favors quality vs quantity. That is how we left the conscripts army and went into the professional army.
2.Step two-Have no fear, NATO is here (change of doctrine).
Since we were beaten by the west, directly and indirectly, their cause became ours. So the assumption was made that NATO will do everything for us as long as we go along its path. For that role, all the officers with actual combat experience were discharged and replaced with a new ones, which were sent
to military academies all around the world, mostly in the US and France. So basically our military doctrine has been shifted from the defensive role to the NATO support role,both passive and active. Passive means that we are weak enough not to pose a threat to the region and strong enough to full fill a specific support role in the missions overseas. Since the assumption is that our problems are solved and that NATO guarantees stability of the region, we don't need to take care of our own security.
Second part is the peace treaty that limits our forces, the number and types of weapons we can have.

So current Serbian defense relays on the assumption that the NATO will not allow any significant conflict to emerge and that therefore we don't need armed forces that could actually defend the country but we need the forces that LOOK LIKE they could defend the country, since they are well trained and professional and so counter strike-ish.

We changed, but our enemies didn't.

We took the passive stance, since we took the blame for the things that we did during the civil war. The fact that the others would do the same only if they had the power, was neglected and pushed under the rug. And that lead to the creation of the billboard army.

[Versus]

And the prize goes to the winners as the pieces of the puzzle fall into place. The deal is worth 5.6 billion US Dollars.

Wesley Clark Seeks Licence For Oil in Kosovo :: Balkan Insight

with the proper tune:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xy_8LqenvGA
So where the pipeline will go?
It can't go trough Albania,too much mountains,it might go trough the Macedonia but the shortest route is troguh Serbia and than off to Bulgaria and the Bulgaria is the main point for the distribution of oil and gas from Caspian basin. With the hostile Albanian minority still present in Serbia and the tensions in the northernKosovo, but with 5.6 billion Dollars investment prospect and the possibility of energy independency mixed with European insecurity, the prospect for Great Albania couldn't be greater.

Sadly, that also means war.

[cyppok]

And the prize goes to the winners as the pieces of the puzzle fall into place. The deal is worth 5.6 billion US Dollars.

Wesley Clark Seeks Licence For Oil in Kosovo :: Balkan Insight

with the proper tune:
Hooverphonic - 2Wicky - YouTube
So where the pipeline will go?
It can't go trough Albania,too much mountains,it might go trough the Macedonia but the shortest route is troguh Serbia and than off to Bulgaria and the Bulgaria is the main point for the distribution of oil and gas from Caspian basin. With the hostile Albanian minority still present in Serbia and the tensions in the northernKosovo, but with 5.6 billion Dollars investment prospect and the possibility of energy independency mixed with European insecurity, the prospect for Great Albania couldn't be greater.

Sadly, that also means war.

Wouldn't the doctrine military doctrine evolve to counter such realities? and try to have a self-sufficient mentality. Or is accommodation the order of the day. I figure a pipeline is not a big deal just set % transit rates and people will share money its not really as drastic as you think.

Plans for 'Greater Albania' by 2015, South Serbia Leader Says :: Balkan InsightAlthough you might be partly right, old link but partly is on the minds of both sides it seems.

These things do not work out because of ethnic differences. Those serb muslims will not join it.
Reminds me of the Chechens wars when Chechens trying to establish a "Muslim State" invaded Dagestan only to be met by the Dagestan Omon (about 10k strong) which was full of all other ethnicities mostly muslim whom repelled them back into Chechnya.

[Versus]

Wouldn't the doctrine military doctrine evolve to counter such realities? and try to have a self-sufficient mentality. Or is accommodation the order of the day. I figure a pipeline is not a big deal just set % transit rates and people will share money its not really as drastic as you think.

Plans for 'Greater Albania' by 2015, South Serbia Leader Says :: Balkan InsightAlthough you might be partly right, old link but partly is on the minds of both sides it seems.

These things do not work out because of ethnic differences. Those serb muslims will not join it.
Reminds me of the Chechens wars when Chechens trying to establish a "Muslim State" invaded Dagestan only to be met by the Dagestan Omon (about 10k strong) which was full of all other ethnicities mostly muslim whom repelled them back into Chechnya.

Well, first we have to consider the reality if we want to counter it. So lets do the reality check.

First defining the sides and goals of those sides.

On the one side, we have Albanians whom want to form the Great Albania.

Great Albania is a state that incorporates considerable portions of territory in four neighbouring states,Greece,Macedonia,Serbia and Montenegro. But not only that it incorporates those territories, it also makes those countries dysfunctional after it takes those territories. For Serbia, it's creation takes out routes to the south and south west,for Macedonia it takes almost half of the country,it takes two thirds of Montenegro and in the case of Greece it takes significant portion of their coastline. So, to put it bluntly, even if they survive the creation of Great Albania, those states don't have the future. As a icing on the top of the cake, Albanian racism, denies the right of all those countries to exist even in that crippled form, since they consider themselves Illiryians, the natives and the native right, gives them right to expand further. So it doesn't end after the creation of Great Albania. This situation is seen as good by their western allies, since the west sees Great Albania as stabilising factor, considering their lifestyle and ethnic stability and it is supported as such. The oil prospect in a world of rapidly depleting oil reserves, places them right into the arms of US, and that is the fact,proven with the NATO intervention and now with the second coming of Wesley Clark as the oil man. Kosovo is a of strategic importance for the US and thus it is supported by the US and by the EU. So it is certain that US and the EU will do everything to please Albanian desire for creation of their Great Albania project since it guarantees the stability of their interests in the Balkans. The pipeline will be just the cause for instability since Albanians will demand the creation of Great Albania as pretext for stability and peace in the region.

So what Serbia should do in order to avoid its demise? It needs to recognise the problem and form coherent answer to it. Problem is, that that answer is fantasy. Just for the sake of argument, lets say that the Serbia has realised that it was double dealt by the West and that that letter from Willy Wimmer was true,what it should do?

First, it would need to do a comprehensive reorganisation of its armed forces and military doctrine,by establishing the strategic command and strategic forces. The criteria for the strategic command and forces would be that the potential enemies are all those countries and nations that Serbia had wars with, trough out the history. So as a force deterrent, Serbia than would have to build its own deterrent capability. That force would consist out of at least 500 ICBM's armed with thermonuclear warheads, cruise missiles and strategic bombers. On the tactical level, it would need to have an army that is three times stronger than all the armies in the region combined. Since most of the countries in the region are NATO members, Serbian army would have to be three times stronger than NATO. Also its leadership needs to be resolved to use those forces without any second thought.
Than it needs to form an alliance with Macedonia,Montenegro and Greece and than it can sit as equal at the negotiating table and say pipeline can go trough our territory but Great Albania, forget about it.

[Versus]

So as you can see,never gonna happen and we will simply have to accept the facts that we lost everything but not because of the others,but because of ourselves.

[Doktor]

And the prize goes to the winners as the pieces of the puzzle fall into place. The deal is worth 5.6 billion US Dollars.

Wesley Clark Seeks Licence For Oil in Kosovo :: Balkan Insight

Wesley Clark has US$5.6 bn

I am sorry but the link asks for a sub.

So where the pipeline will go?
It can't go trough Albania,too much mountains,it might go trough the Macedonia but the shortest route is troguh Serbia and than off to Bulgaria and the Bulgaria is the main point for the distribution of oil and gas from Caspian basin. With the hostile Albanian minority still present in Serbia and the tensions in the northernKosovo, but with 5.6 billion Dollars investment prospect and the possibility of energy independency mixed with European insecurity, the prospect for Great Albania couldn't be greater.

Sadly, that also means war.

OK. Once again our government proves smart (OK, I know it never
happened, but still).

There is a pipeline from Skopje to Thessaloníki, all Mr. Clark needs is some additional 100-150km of pipeline and voila, no war.

[Versus]

Wesley Clark has US$5.6 bn

I am sorry but the link asks for a sub.


OK. Once again our government proves smart (OK, I know it never
happened, but still).

There is a pipeline from Skopje to Thessaloníki, all Mr. Clark needs is some additional 100-150km of pipeline and voila, no war.

As far as I know, he is on the board of some Canadian oil company now, so Canadian company has 5.6 billion dollars, no doubt that it has US share holders in it so mixed all togeather, they are a bunch of mixed interests,creativity and desire to live large. Sweet.
But you know Doctor, the thing that puzzles me the most is why the largest Catholic cathedral in the Balkans, is being built in Kosovo, when the percentage of Catholics within Albanians is less than 5%. I know that it sounds like conspiracy and falls well within those lines that orthodox extremists are advocating, but it is just weird to me.
Bah I don't know,its all insane to me. Who cares anyhow.

[Versus]

The intercepted fax from Willy Wimmer sent to Gerhard Schroeder:
wimmer

And the translation:
"Mr. Gerhard Schröder

Federal Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany

Bundeskanzleramt
Schloßplatz 1
10178 Berlin

Berlin, May 2, 2000

Highly esteemed Mr. Chancellor,

At the end of last week I had the opportunity to attend a conference in the Slovakian capital of Bratislava, jointly organized by the American State Department and the American Enterprise Institute (the foreign policy institute of the Republican Party). The main topics of the gathering were the Balkans and NATO enlargement.

The conference was attended by very high level political officials, as witnessed by the presence of a large number of prime ministers, as well as foreign ministers and defense ministers from the region. Among the numerous important points of discussion, certain themes deserve special mention:

The conference organizers demanded the speediest possible international recognition of an independent state of Kosovo within the circle of the allied states.
The organizers declared that the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia lies outside of any legal framework, before all outside the Helsinki Final Act [on the inviolability of state borders – trans. note].
The European legal order presents an obstacle to carrying out the plans of NATO. In this sense, the American legal system is more suitable for application in Europe.
The war against the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia was waged in order to rectify General Eisenhower’s erroneous decision during World War II. Therefore, for strategic reasons, American troops must be stationed there, in order to compensate for the missed opportunity from 1945.
The European allies participated in the war against Yugoslavia in order to, de facto, overcome the obstacle and dilemma that appeared after the adoption of NATO’s “New Strategic Concept” in April 1999, that is, the Europeans’ efforts to previously secure a UN or OSCE mandate.
Without denigrating the importance of the Europeans’ after-the-fact legalistic interpretation, namely that the expansion of NATO’s tasks beyond the treaty’s legal domain in the war against Yugoslavia was just an exception, it is nevertheless clear that this represented a precedent, to be invoked by anyone at any time, and that many others will follow the example in the future.
It would be good, during NATO’s current enlargement, to restore the territorial situation in the area between the Baltic Sea and Anatolia such as existed during the Roman Empire, at the time of its greatest power and greatest territorial expansion.
For this reason, Poland must be flanked to the north and to the south with democratic neighbor states, while Romania and Bulgaria are to secure a land connection with Turkey. Serbia (probably for the purposes of securing an unhindered US military presence) must be permanently excluded from European development.
North of Poland, total control over St. Petersburg’s access to the Baltic Sea must be established.
In all processes, peoples’ rights to self-determination should be favored over all other provisions or rules of international law.
The claim that, during its attack on the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, NATO violated all international rules, and especially all the relevant provisions of international law – was not disputed.

After this conference, at which discussion was quite candid and open, it will not be possible to avoid the importance and long-term ramifications of its conclusions, especially having in mind the competence of the participants and organizers.

It seems that the American side, for the sake of its own goals, is willing and ready to undermine, on a global scale, the international legal order, which came about as a result of the two world wars in the previous century. Force is to stand above law. Wherever international law stands in the way, it is to be removed.

When the League of Nations experienced a similar fate, World War II was not far off. The manner of thought that takes into regard solely its own interests can only be referred to as totalitarian.

With friendly regards,

Willy Wimmer

Member, German Bundestag and Vice President, Parliamentary Assembly of the OSCE"

So how valid is this? I mean it does sound like antoher CT but this text is one of the main pillars for anti european campagin in Serbia.