2022-2023 Russo-Ukrainian War

[Gun Grape]

You could do that in the 1980s by ripping off the data plate and requesting a new one from LOGSA. But not that we have an integrated, supply, maintenance, proprty book & financial are in a single integrated system. Too many records with serial numbers and digital signatures.

So there are no more enlisted "Procurement specialist"?

[Bigfella]

Correction,

Fair enough. Thanks.

The goal is 84 tanks. Two (3 x14 tanks) battalions. Unlike the Yanks, we are going to force them into our MTOEs.

NATO members will be hard pressed to come up with more tanks in less than 6 months. When RHM-AG.DE needs a year to send a 2nd coy, you know things are backed up. Spain has half its fleet mothballed and cannibalized for parts. Don't know how many they can send without jeopardizing readiness. Canada is sending 4 right now. Everyone is in the same position. Half the fleet is in need of repairs and the other half is needed for readiness and training. Money and especially parts (again, RHM-AG.DE needs a year to prepare a 2nd batch of 14 tanks) need to be found before more tanks are available.

From the moment Britain committed to 14 tanks you have greeted every annoucement of more tanks with some remark that it is not enough or they won't get there by X date. Yet the number committed continues to rise and I seriously doubt we have seen the end of it. Yes, we all understand that this isn't as simple as: promise tank = tank ready to fight. We also understand that the most optimistic hopes will not be met. However, the most pessimistic assessments - which is the position you appear to be arguing - have had a pretty bad week.

Time will tell which assessment is correct.

I wasn't aware of this stipulation. I ask how did you draw this conclusion?

How did I come to the conclusion that promises don't fire shells? Pretty obvious really. I'm not sure you understood my point - at the moment we only have promises, but that is a positive start.

[Gun Grape]

Starting to look like the floodgates are finally starting to open. Now where are the dam ACTAMs!

Hopefully not from the US.

Less that 4000 built. A bunch sold to allies. A Bunch more fired. Production ended in 2007. Replacement not fielded yet.

Don't know anymore , but back in the days before I retired, these were Corps level (3 Star) assets. And the had targets assigned. We do need to support Ukraine but not at the expense
of weakening some of our contingency areas that could turn hot soon.

We have already pulled 155 ammo from our theater WR stocks in Israel once and from Korea twice for Ukraine. Pac Commanders have already voiced opinions that its starting to get to tight. Don't handicap them even further.

[Officer of Engineers]

Time will tell which assessment is correct.

Before or after Putin's 500K comes charging in?

How did I come to the conclusion that promises don't fire shells? Pretty obvious really. I'm not sure you understood my point - at the moment we only have promises, but that is a positive start.

I read you wrong before. Now, I got you. But as far as I'm concerned, that's 3 BNs (1 M1, 2 LEO2s) and 1 SQN (14 CHALLY2s). All deployable within 6 weeks (training time).

I'm more optimistic with the Morocan and Polish T-72s. They're deployable on delivery. We're still under time pressure before Putin's 500K comes in. I'm under no illusions that we have that time to do more repair. What ever else tanks that can be supplied must come from the readiness stock in which case, at least Canada, should start disbanding tank regiments. I'm under zero illusions that the funding would come back to buy new tanks.

[Monash]

Hopefully not from the US.

Less that 4000 built. A bunch sold to allies. A Bunch more fired. Production ended in 2007. Replacement not fielded yet ......

I wasn't particularity thinking of thousands. A couple of hundred a piece maybe both Abrams and Leos. Enough to give the Uki's a useful core of (relatively in some cases) modern Western MBTs that are better than anything the Russians can field to hold in reserve and then use as a sledgehammer at the appropriate point/time.

The thing is by my (rough) count Russia's must have burned through about half its pre-war stock of deployable MBTs. Oryx's total is approaching what? 1600 plus MBTs lost to date and that number has to be taken as conservative. And the fact T64s are starting showing up in numbers indicates (to me anyway) that overhauled T72s and above are in short supply. Which by my count gives them something in the range 1700-2000ish operational pre-war MBT's left max. If they're lucky! More likely less than that. Add in whatever new production they can push out or rebuilt stock they can dredge up from their trash farms and 500 or so western MBTs would make a big difference against those kind of numbers.

(But again this is amateur hour talking so everyone please be gentle when you pull my analysis apart.)

[Officer of Engineers]

500 or so western MBTs would make a big difference against those kind of numbers.

Zelensky asked for 300. A division.

[Gun Grape]

I wasn't particularity thinking of thousands. A couple of hundred a piece maybe both Abrams and Leos. Enough to give the Uki's a useful core of (relatively in some cases) modern Western MBTs that are better than anything the Russians can field to hold in reserve and then use as a sledgehammer at the appropriate point/time.

The thing is by my (rough) count Russia's must have burned through about half its pre-war stock of deplorable MBTs. Oryx's total is approaching what? 1600 plus MBTs lost to date and that number has to be taken as conservative. And the fact T64s are starting showing up in numbers indicates (to me anyway) that overhauled T72s and above are in short supply. Which by mu count gives them something in the range 1700-2000ish pre-war MBT's left. If they're lucky plus whatever new production or rebuilt stock they can dredge up from their trash farms. 500 or so western MBTs would make a big difference against those kind of numbers.

(But again this is amateur hour talking so everyone please be gentle when you pull my analysis apart.)

My post was about ATACMS

[Monash]

My post was about ATACMS

Copy that!

[Bigfella]

Before or after Putin's 500K comes charging in?

I read you wrong before. Now, I got you. But as far as I'm concerned, that's 3 BNs (1 M1, 2 LEO2s) and 1 SQN (14 CHALLY2s). All deployable within 6 weeks (training time).

I'm more optimistic with the Morocan and Polish T-72s. They're deployable on delivery. We're still under time pressure before Putin's 500K comes in. I'm under no illusions that we have that time to do more repair. What ever else tanks that can be supplied must come from the readiness stock in which case, at least Canada, should start disbanding tank regiments. I'm under zero illusions that the funding would come back to buy new tanks.

The Polish & Moroccan tanks will be very useful, especially as they all appear to have been modernized to some degree. I am betting there will be more where they came from as deals are done and arms twisted here & there. Ukraine has shown an ability to integrate that sort of kit very quickly.

As for Putin's 500k, I'm not convinced they will do any better than the previous 300k, whose main achievement appears to be capturing a Ukranian town at huge cost. Will they be effective in defence? Perhaps. Ukraine's job is certainly getting harder, but unlike Russia its equipment is getting better and its men are getting better trained.

This war has been a graveyard for predictions thus far. I suspect it will continue to be so.

[Officer of Engineers]

The Polish & Moroccan tanks will be very useful, especially as they all appear to have been modernized to some degree. I am betting there will be more where they came from as deals are done and arms twisted here & there. Ukraine has shown an ability to integrate that sort of kit very quickly.

I hope so. I'm extremely pleased that we found access to more Soviet workable equipment.

As for Putin's 500k, I'm not convinced they will do any better than the previous 300k, whose main achievement appears to be capturing a Ukranian town at huge cost. Will they be effective in defence? Perhaps. Ukraine's job is certainly getting harder, but unlike Russia its equipment is getting better and its men are getting better trained.

This war has been a graveyard for predictions thus far. I suspect it will continue to be so.

Except one. This war will last years. The Ukrainians need to make big gains before the 500K comes in, Hence, the need for 300 Western MBTs (a division's worth along with the training for that division, especially if we're forcing our TOE on them). In this instance, I strongly agree with Zelensky. The big wins are easier before Putin's 500K comes in.

[Ironduke]

As for Putin's 500k, I'm not convinced they will do any better than the previous 300k, whose main achievement appears to be capturing a Ukranian town at huge cost. Will they be effective in defence? Perhaps. Ukraine's job is certainly getting harder, but unlike Russia its equipment is getting better and its men are getting better trained.

The ~300k mobilized in September have yet to be fully trained, equipped, or even all deployed to Ukraine. A month ago Putin claimed about half of them (150k) had been deployed. Given the Russian habit for mendacity, I doubt quite that many had been yet deployed at the time of his statement.

I honestly don't think the Russian army has the capacity to call up, train, and equip another 500k and have them show up in any effective numbers in 2023. Unless they get fed in as cannon fodder in human wave attacks.

Worth pointing out, that there has not even been a call up yet for a second wave of mobilization.

[Albany Rifles]

Sadly a skill set that has fallen to the annals of history, Gunny!

[Albany Rifles]

I hope so. I'm extremely pleased that we found access to more Soviet workable equipment.

Except one. This war will last years. The Ukrainians need to make big gains before the 500K comes in, Hence, the need for 300 Western MBTs (a division's worth along with the training for that division, especially if we're forcing our TOE on them). In this instance, I strongly agree with Zelensky. The big wins are easier before Putin's 500K comes in.

Not so sure about this Sir. Our 31 equals a Ukrainian battalion. What others have is how their gear is organized. How the Ukrainians use them in whatever organization is up to them. The one change to MTOE we are forcing is 4 v 3 man crews...but that can't be helped. Training a loader takes less time than training a driver, gunner or commander.

[astralis]

The ~300k mobilized in September have yet to be fully trained, equipped, or even all deployed to Ukraine. A month ago Putin claimed about half of them (150k) had been deployed. Given the Russian habit for mendacity, I doubt quite that many had been yet deployed at the time of his statement.

I honestly don't think the Russian army has the capacity to call up, train, and equip another 500k and have them show up in any effective numbers in 2023. Unless they get fed in as cannon fodder in human wave attacks.

Worth pointing out, that there has not even been a call up yet for a second wave of mobilization.

yeah, the Russian figures are badly inflated. but even dividing the numbers by two, which is far closer to reality, the Ukrainians are having difficulty keeping up. they're outnumbered (not badly so, but outnumbered).

the first batch of mobiks were sent directly to the front to delay the Ukrainian offensives. in Luhansk, the DPR/LNR goats along with the mobiks were thrown straight in; in Kherson, just the mobiks. enough to fix the Ukrainians in place so that massed fires could target the Ukrainians and buy the Russians time to get their professional troops out.

those bullet sponges had literally zero training. their lifespan was measured in days.

the current second batch are sitting in trenches or the rear with little training (the New Year's day blast that killed 400 or so was emblematic of that set). it's the Wagner prisoner volunteers getting fed into the wood-chipper, not them.

the last batch is still in Russia getting some actual training.

so I expect another call up to be more of the same. divided into batches, a mix of human wave, reserves, and then husbanding a small portion to fill out attrited units.

[Ironduke]

I don't doubt the Russians conscripted 300k since Putin's mobilization announcement late September, it's the notion they're actually "mobilized" I have doubts about.

And even if 150k are indeed within the 2014 borders of Ukraine, there's plenty of footage out there from the conscripts themselves of many of them just camping out with no shelter, no equipment, and no orders. Just sitting there. Or digging trenches but still unarmed. A mass of warm bodies, even if transported in their thousands to rear areas, if not armed or capable of combat, to me is not the same thing as "mobilized". They're just mouths who have to be fed until someone figures out how to get them armed and in a proper uniform.