2022-2024 Russo-Ukrainian War

[Bigfella]

Were there any meaningful gurantees given to Ukraine when they gave up their nukes in 1994?

I believe the Budapest Memorandum was signed by the relevant parties & registered with the UN....or something like that. Ukraine clearly considered it 'meaningful' until about the time Russia decided it wasn't. It was part of their belief that they could bridge Russia & Europe without having to choose between the two or spend a ton on modernizing their military. Oops.

[zraver]

Had to check my history being that I had learned the stuff back in the late 60s and early 70s about the A bombs where I thought we only had two. Research showed more available in a few weeks.

Stalin's entry I don't think changes much. The Japanese equated surrender with being defeated and the ultimate disgrace. I don't see them ever surrendering given the IJA's strong desire to fight to the last man which meant they weren't defeated in their mind. Fanaticism would have been off the charts. If not for Hirohito, in my opinion anyway, they would have never laid down their arms. Of course we also know Stalin had no qualms sacrificing each and every Soviet soldier.

I kind of derailing the thread although TH has been kind enough not to look cross-eyed at me...

The atomic bombings spared Japan. The real doom of Japan was Operation Avalanche combined with USN submarine ops. We would have landed in ghost towns populated with bones

[Double Edge]

Putin's Plan

Let's hear the comments!

He makes the case that Russia was indeed tactically deployed

They make a dash for Kiev.

I still can't figure how Russia will pull off an occupation. They will get bogged down. For what.

So they should try to draw the Ukranians to the border and that opens up space.

Refugees exiting cities slow Ukranian soldiers from getting to the cities.

Has he written anything about an occupation ?

The negotiations Russia demanded the US engage in were never meant to move beyond the first meeting. Putin wanted the US to walk away from his insane demands so his propaganda could then blame the invasion on “America’s rejection of negotiations”. And invade he will. And as Biden announced that both, a minor incursion or a full invasion, will result in the same severe sanctions, there is no reason for Putin to limited his war.

This bit brings into question whether it was about NATO at all. There are people contesting that claim by Putin.

Then i heard a commentator say never take anything Putin says at face value.

What concessions can the west offer to defuse the situation ? NONE !

But Putin never wanted a limited war anyway: he wants to invade, occupy, annex and enslave Ukraine, and then russify its people, with all the terror, torture, murder and genocide such a policy entails. He said so, he keeps telling us, and he wrote it down and published it last summer.

Way over the top. I don't buy it.

Putin cannot afford more than a limited war which is why these moves are such a surprise.

[zraver]

Back to artillery. Could the lack of observed mass barrages be due mostly to increased use of pgm's?

Anyone have any insight on Russian stocks and production of pgm's?

Will they run out and revert to simply killing whole grid squares?

[Officer of Engineers]

Had to check my history being that I had learned the stuff back in the late 60s and early 70s about the A bombs where I thought we only had two. Research showed more available in a few weeks.

It would have meant we couldn't care less how many banzai charges they would do. They would just fertilizer for mushroom clouds.

Stalin's entry I don't think changes much. The Japanese equated surrender with being defeated and the ultimate disgrace. I don't see them ever surrendering given the IJA's strong desire to fight to the last man which meant they weren't defeated in their mind. Fanaticism would have been off the charts.

Operation AUGUST STORM says otherwise. Of the 600,000 man strong Kwantung Army, according to Soviet sources, 90% surrendered. According to Japanese sources, 90% deserted. Either way, the Kwantung Army cowarded before the Red Army.

I kind of derailing the thread although TH has been kind enough not to look cross-eyed at me...

Don't worry about it. You're not his type.

[Double Edge]

The Russians are not our equals. The Bundeswehr alone has no fear of the Russian Army. The Russian Army is only now adopting doctrines that we've developed over 60 years ago. They are now battalion centric. We are now corps centric. The Russians cannot do corps level operations like Kuwait nor Iraq.

The only NATO members under threat are the Baltic States and that's because of geography. The only defence we can mount there is a pyrrhic one. The Russians will win in the Baltics but would cost them any hope of repelling NATO counter-attacks anywhere else. Other than that, there's not one NATO member that fears a Russian onslaught.

So if Russia moves into the Baltcs, NATO takes over parts of Russian territory they cannot defend.

Ceasefire declared. Lands swap hands. Net gain. ZERO

There is no war if there is to be no gain.

That is how the Baltics are defended. Indirectly.

[Double Edge]

if they checked all the boxes, they wouldn't need us. They should not need us now. But if they do check all the boxes, they would be a military and economic powerhouse and a net contributor, not a net detriment to any alliance. The fact that Gen Miley accessed that Kiev is only a 72 hour Russian march screams at the Ukrainian incompetence. Russia should run out bombs long before the road to Kiev runs out of bunkers. Ain't going to be the case.

With over 5 years since the DNR/LNR debacle and one year since the last scare, Kiev has done squat all to make Russia think twice.

Budget ?

I don't think they lack the courage. They have NATO trainers who will be telling them the same thing.

I cannot figure out any other reason.

[Double Edge]

Perception is a lot of reality. Don't you think a Russian leader (Putin won't be in power one day either through retirement, overthrow, or death) would pick the weakest point to attack and do it? I'm not sitting here and saying the Russians are going to roll into Leipzig, that's idiotic. Putin's goal is not to defeat NATO militarily, he'd lose. He wants to see NATO become what the Rio Treaty became post-Falklands War (dead letter to a lot of Latin America, which Mexico formally stated to not back us on Iraq in the Security Council vote).

So getting rid of NATO means creating crises and exacerbating differences in the allies. He already split NATO twice in Georgia 2008 and Crimea 2014, seemingly most driven by Merkel. Merkel's now gone (I bet she's glad she's in retirement now and doesn't have to deal with this!), we'll see how this crisis goes.

His present actions have achieved the very opposite. Now NATO is unified.

An invasion of Ukraine is a failure of Russian policy said Fyodor Lukyanov

[Double Edge]

There's finally a diplomatic plan from the French and Germans: get both sides back on the Minsk II agreement. Problem is the how and the Ukrainians say it won't work.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-minsk-accords


And that ladies and gentlemen is why you need smart people running your country's foreign policy.

Is this official tacitly admitting Crimea and Donbass are never coming back to Ukraine?

Onward to the next Punic War!

This is an important point here. The Minsk agreement. I hear commentary that Ukraine has not moved much in this regard.

Minsk (2 now) is the off ramp from this conflict without which it keeps flaring up from time to time.

“The people on the other side have spent eight years being subjected to propaganda about Ukraine, most of them have been given Russian passports. Their leaders are Russian citizens. How are we expected now to integrate them back, and have their representatives sit in Kyiv? It doesn’t make sense,” said the high-ranking official.

I don't understand this argument if Ukraine allows dual/multiple citizenship

Why is it only a problem if they have Russian passports and not any other.

Does the Ukranian govt in Kiev represent all Ukrainians or only Ukranian speaking people ?

[TopHatter]

I kind of derailing the thread although TH has been kind enough not to look cross-eyed at me...

Don't worry about it. You're not his type.

Well let's not...let's not rule anything out...

[TopHatter]

Zelensky says Russia to storm Kyiv tonight: "We have to stand our ground"

Late Friday night is when Russia "will launch an assault" on Kyiv, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an address to his nation, warning Ukrainians that "this night we have to stand ground. The fate of Ukraine is being decided now."

The latest: "The enemy will use all of their power on all fronts to break our defense," Zelensky said in his address, adding that "many cities are under threat: Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Donbass, southern Ukraine and special attention to Kyiv.”

• Russian troops entered Kyiv from the north, Ukraine's Defense Ministry said earlier on Friday, as fighting took place on the city's northern outskirts and gunfire could be heard from the central government district.

Zelensky posted a video of himself and his aides in Kyiv's government district to tamp down rumors that he had fled. "We are here. We are in Kyiv. We are defending Ukraine," Zelensky said.

• President Biden said Friday afternoon that he spoke with Zelensky and "commended the brave actions of the Ukrainian people who were fighting to defend their country."
• "I also conveyed ongoing economic, humanitarian, and security support being provided by the United States as well as our continued efforts to rally other countries to provide similar assistance," Biden said.

What's happening: Russian President Vladimir Putin called on the Ukrainian military to overthrow the government and "take power into your own hands" — explicitly demanding regime change as a precondition for peace talks.

• "It seems that it will be easier for us to come to an agreement than with this gang of drug addicts and neo-Nazis, who occupied Kyiv and took the entire Ukrainian people hostage," Putin said before a meeting of Russia's Security Council, reiterating baseless claims about Ukraine's government.
• The Kremlin said earlier it's prepared to send a delegation to Minsk to meet with Ukrainian officials to discuss a peace agreement based on "demilitarization" and neutral status for Ukraine.
• A Pentagon official told reporters Friday: "The Russians have lost a little bit of their momentum. No population centers have been taken. Russia has yet to achieve air superiority." The official cautioned that Russia has only deployed one-third of its forces massed on the border and could still overwhelm Ukraine.
• NATO has activated elements of its 40,000-troops NATO Response Force for the first time in history, deploying them to eastern flank countries, with Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg warning that "the Kremlin's objectives are not limited to Ukraine."

The European Union and United Kingdom on Friday froze the assets of Putin and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov as part of a new tranche of sanctions punishing Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.

• The moves reflect Moscow's new pariah status but are largely symbolic, as it's unclear what assets Putin and Lavrov actually hold in the West.
• Later Friday, White House press secretary Jen Psaki said the U.S. will also impose sanctions on Putin and Lavrov.
• Worth noting: It is rare for the U.S. to sanction a sitting world leader, and the Kremlin had previously said it would consider sanctions on Putin himself to be a de facto severing of relations between the U.S. and Russia.

State of play: Zelensky said on Thursday that Russian forces were hunting for him and his family, and told EU leaders that"this might be the last time you see me alive" during a video conference on Thursday night. Meanwhile, Kyiv's 3 million citizens are now bracing for potential urban warfare.

“"This morning, we are defending our country alone. ... Europe said 'never again,' but here we are.”

— Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Friday
Zoom in: Ukraine's Ministry of Defense said Russian troops were now in the Obolon district of northern Kyiv. It urged residents on Twitter to report the movements of Russian equipment and remain inside but "make Molotov cocktails."

• The government said it had destroyed three bridges north of the capital in an effort to stymie the advance.
• Air raid sirens have repeatedly sounded as Kyiv residents huddled in metro stations. Ukrainian officials said a downed Russian aircraft had crashed into a residential building, injuring several people.
• The UN says at least 25 civilians have been killed and 102 injured, though these estimates are likely an undercount, per the BBC. The UN said Thursday evening that around 100,000 Ukrainians had fled their homes. Zelensky said Friday Russia's claim that it doesn't target Ukrainian civilians is "a lie."
• Zelensky said 137 Ukrainian troops were killed in the first day of fighting. Those include all 13 soldiers guarding a small island in the Black Sea who were killed when they refused to surrender under bombardment from a Russian warship.

What to watch: A Pentagon official told reporters Thursday that Russia intended to encircle Kyiv and "decapitate" its government.

• "Horrific Russian rocket strikes on Kyiv. Last time our capital experienced anything like this was in 1941 when it was attacked by Nazi Germany," Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba tweeted, urging the world to "sever all ties" with Russia.
• In an address to the nation Thursday, Zelensky announced a full military mobilization, with men aged 18 to 60 barred from leaving the country.
• "We have been left alone to defend our state," Zelensky said, adding that he was grateful to those countries providing help and not just statements.

___________

This is it....

[TopHatter]

So they're going to sanction Putin personally...which the Kremlin has said would be a de facto severing of diplomatic relations.

[Double Edge]

I, however, am prepared to suggest we've already entered a new cold war with our old adversaries and wish to God we'd openly acknowledge it. Our enemies seem comfortable generating provocation. Time, IMV, to take the gloves off and employ all our means to protect our way of life.

Russia is a distraction. The main adversary is China.

Having to watch both means doing less justice to both. The Euros aren't up to the task.

The EU combined economy dwarfs that of Russia. Yet, they were willing to compromise which in itself could lead to bigger asks.

What to do ? if Putin insists on creating a nuisance. This isn't going to go away anytime soon.

India loses bargaining power with the US who in turn loses it with China.

[Red Team]

Russian forces currently trying to establish a foothold in Vasylkiv, south of Kyiv. Heavy fighting reported.

[Gun Grape]

Back to artillery. Could the lack of observed mass barrages be due mostly to increased use of pgm's?

Anyone have any insight on Russian stocks and production of pgm's?

Will they run out and revert to simply killing whole grid squares?

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