2022-2024 Russo-Ukrainian War

[zraver]

Twitter for what it's worth is claiming the assault on the air port failed because Ukrainian ADA wasn't fully suppressed. At least 1 AN226 was brought down and the bigger IL76's never showed up. Ukraine is also claiming they have brought down 5 Russian helps there. Claims UA had a rapid reaction and UA spetsnaz brigade on hand/ able to respond.

[Mithridates]

That's the most likely scenario. A similar situation to 2003, the U.S. blew through the Iraqi armed forces like a bag of leaves....and then afterwards the shit hit the fan.

More like a steady drip of casualties. Peaked at ~150 a month. I have a feeling the Russians will be more cold-blooded about reprisals against civilians than we were. I'm not optimistic that a Ukrainian resistance can hold out in the face of threats to family members. We'll see. The UPA just after WWII were a tough bunch, though. Roughly 200,000 died before they were finally put down. Of course, the word tough applies to everyone of that era.

[zraver]

That's the most likely scenario. A similar situation to 2003, the U.S. blew through the Iraqi armed forces like a bag of leaves....and then afterwards the shit hit the fan.

Russia doesn't enjoy the same level of overmatch and I think that will cost them more blood and treasure.

Also, I don't know for sure, but I always assumed Russia's best troops and gear were in Kaliningrad Oblast.

[Bigfella]

I've read some speculation (In Reuters I think) on the issue of gas. The thinking was something along the lines that America and its Allies may have been sounding out major gas producers about trying to 'shuffle the deck' on gas contracts in the event Russia shuts off the tap. The idea would be for producers closer to Europe (say the middle east) to temporarily 'switch' some sales to Europe and then have other global suppliers step in to handle contracted deliveries the middle eastern suppliers might 'default' on as a result. Presumably the idea is that when (or if) the sanctions end everything shuffles back to previous settings.).

Two big issues I see; 1) Logistics. Do Europe's existing seaport gas terminals have the capacity to handle the extra tankers required?
2) Organization: How easy would it be to coordinate the switch over? I can see most of the big players including Australia being on board but in the end how practical is it?

If this gives us a chance to renegotiate the utterly disgraceful gas contracts we are signed up to then bring it on!

[TopHatter]

More like a steady drip of casualties. Peaked at ~150 a month. I have a feeling the Russians will be more cold-blooded about reprisals against civilians than we were. I'm not optimistic that a Ukrainian resistance can hold out in the face of threats to family members. We'll see.

Yeah i think you're probably right, but my general point was that the real "fun" for Russia won't actually start until after they supposedly conquer Kiev and try to hold it.

[zraver]

Putin announced a goal of regime change before the invasion. Is now announcing terms that merely require demilitarization and no NATO...... Things not going swimmingly?

[Officer of Engineers]

What's everyone's take on why the Russians did not replicate the pre-Desert Storm month-long bombardment before going in on the ground?

The Ukrainians did not co-opoerate by massing to face the Russian onslaught and thus, denying Russian birdnrains viable targets. In fact, the Ukrainians didn't even have the courtesy to stay in barracks to give something for the Russian birdbrains to bomb. They stayed home.

[Chunder]

Where are most people here getting their live info from?

https://liveuamap.com/

Click on map icons to gain briefs

[Mithridates]

The Ukrainians did not co-opoerate by massing to face the Russian onslaught and thus, denying Russian birdnrains viable targets.

So there was method behind their madness. It's possible their defense strategy is essentially the Taliban's and Saddam's dead-enders', after a few hiccups - draw the conventional force in and bleed it slowly, by noting patterns and punishing the occupiers for these repetitive habits. The Russia remedy has traditionally been something like Operation Lentil or Siberia, effective but not available to Western occupation troops.

[Mithridates]

Putin announced a goal of regime change before the invasion. Is now announcing terms that merely require demilitarization and no NATO...... Things not going swimmingly?

He may not want to stick around to be sniped and blown up. Once disarmament is complete, he can always finish the job.

[TopHatter]

So there was method behind their madness. It's possible their defense strategy is essentially the Taliban's and Saddam's dead-enders', after a few hiccups - draw the conventional force in and bleed it slowly, by noting patterns and punishing the occupiers for these repetitive habits.

That sounds like their best option if they can't at least keep the Russians from taking Kiev and installing a puppet government.

In any event, Russian supply lines won't be anything like Afghanistan I and II in terms of sheer distance but I still wouldn't want to be an SV Ural driver in Ukraine for all the spiced rum in the world.

[Bigfella]

That sounds like their best option if they can't at least keep the Russians from taking Kiev and installing a puppet government.

In any event, Russian supply lines won't be anything like Afghanistan I and II in terms of sheer distance but I still wouldn't want to be an SV Ural driver in Ukraine for all the spiced rum in the world.

There might be value in a doomed 'last stand' outside Kyiv with Zelensky visibly risking his life. There is a morale/symbolism aspect that could have value beyond the short term military loss. Make the Russians fight for it. Show Ukranians that their army went down fighitng. Show them that their President stayed & fought.

Make it as clear as possible that no Russian backed government can ever be legitimate and that every Ukranian from top to bottom should fight. It won't change anything immediately, but it might help the longer term fight.

[Firestorm]

I'm still struggling to understand what Putin hopes to achieve by this all-out invasion. If it was a limited operation to occupy Donbas or create a land corridor to Crimea I might understand. But this seems to be way beyond that. Even if the invasion succeeds what then? Any puppet government he leaves behind is likely to be overthrown quickly by Ukrainians who will be even more pissed off at Russia and anyone supporting it than they are already. Any agreement to not join NATO made as part of the terms of surrender won't be worth the paper it's written on. It can and will be repudiated by a future Ukrainian administration. He can't keep invading again and again. A complete occupation of Ukraine is not feasible because of the insurgency that would create that'd make the Iraqi one seem like a cakewalk. And this is besides whatever economic costs Russia will have to bear as a result of sanctions.

And it seems like the assault on Kyiv at least may be floundering. This might turn out to be a very bad miscalculation on Putin's part overall . Maybe he's getting too old for this shit.

[Officer of Engineers]

So there was method behind their madness.

And you have nothing stopping Russian columns advancing to your city gates. It's a freaking no win. Don't mass and your give the Russians a free pass to Kiev. Mass and you get your shit bombed out of you. That's why active AD is extremely important in modern warfare, it allows you to maneuver against the enemy. The ONLY passive AD that could give you a chance is massive fortification and I mean fortification with 3 feet concrete walls. Even then, modern thermobarics would make life damned hard to breathe.

It's possible their defense strategy is essentially the Taliban's and Saddam's dead-enders', after a few hiccups - draw the conventional force in and bleed it slowly, by noting patterns and punishing the occupiers for these repetitive habits.

You do realize that the cost to the Taliban was 150 dead for every single American dead and Afghanistan is just a sand dump to the Americans. Ukraine is sacred Russian soil (Ukrainians would beg to differ) in that the Russians consider the Kevian Rus to be the first Russian Empire (again Ukrainians would beg to differ). The point is there is no way the Ukrainians could ever outbleed the Russians on Russian sacred soil.

There might be value in a doomed 'last stand' outside Kyiv with Zelensky visibly risking his life. There is a morale/symbolism aspect that could have value beyond the short term military loss. Make the Russians fight for it. Show Ukranians that their army went down fighitng. Show them that their President stayed & fought

Get that walking clusterfuck away from the lines. He is worst than Trump, another showman surrounding himself by yes-men. He's only interested in photo-ops, not anything concrete. We've been screaming for months that Putin was going to invade and he still insisted he saw no signs of pending doom. Did nothing to beef up defence and only declared Martial Law on the Day of the Invasion when DNR and LNR had mobilized for days. Talked to everyone else but the one person who could stopped the invasion, Putin. Pretty well ignored Putin until it was too late. Put him on the lines and he would only open the gates to Kiev just to get a dramatic picture of him and him alone facing down a tank.

If he were in my chain of command, I would have relieved him for incompetence.

[Red Team]

Reportedly audio from Snake Island in Black Sea:

RUSSIAN NAVY -This is a Russian military ship. I suggest you lay down your weapons and surrender to avoid bloodshed and unnecessary victims. Otherwise we will open fire on you.

UKRAINIAN SOLDIER -Russian military ship, go fuck yourself.

They were all killed.

https://twitter.com/shaunwalker7/sta...bee56d585d%2F0

These Ukrainians are hard motherf--kers.