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  • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    To be fair, there are two things in the Russian pic that isn't in the American ones, trees and snow. The Russian pic is an assembly point, not a depot. I don't see enough buildings to say it's a depot. To build it to the American depot specs, you will need to clear a lot more trees, level a lot more ground. Also, take a look at the surrounding trees which brings up the other thing - where are you going to put the snow? The more paths you've got, the more snow you will have to put somewhere.

    Yes, it's still laziness but after clearing snow 3 blizzards in a row wtih 2 days in between blizzards (must do it or you're not going to get the air freights in), you appreciate on having less snow to clear and stop bitching on where else you're going to put the snow.
    I can appreciate that Sir, but this is a horrible practice. And FT Stewart isn't a depot. Those motor pools are for the 3rd Infantry Division (Mechanized). I realize this is a field laager...but this isn't how those are done.. If you are in the lower right corner you have to wait for damn near every other vehicle to clear out before I can go.
    “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
    Mark Twain

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    • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
      They're the same thing. Train as you fight. Fight as you train. The whole point about these exercises is to learn whether or not you can do it.
      Then there is no way to tell whether he will invade or not.

      Chinese weren't tactically deployed against India. Some commentators mentioned this tactically bit which i only caught many months later.

      I guess it takes a bit more intel to tell. By tactically deployed i mean in positions where they have an attack advantage and not just all over the place.

      Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
      Doesn't matter. Whether NATO gives concession to Putin or not, I will guarrantee you one thing. Kiev is going to bend over backwards not to test Putin.
      aka The Ukranians coming to their senses. It would be a good outcome if that happened.

      I pushed this on Minnie back in 2014. Why let the US & Russia fight to the last Ukranian. For what ?

      What is Putin doing here ? i think he wants a settlement. He started the ball rolling in 2014.

      Things have not moved much from there so he's pushing some more. He's got people's attention.

      He's stepping down in 2024. This is his last chance.

      Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
      Militarily speaking also, I too would think invasion is immeniant. Why go through all this if you have no intention to invade. Putin got other easier options to exact concessions. He could have easily armed 80,000 DNR and LNR troops to make life miserable for Kiev and would not have such political baggage,
      heh, the number of times i heard this from commentators about the Chinese. Yet it never happened.

      Putin does not have to invade because he already did so in 2014. He just has to posture and every one freaks out as if he will. Pavlovian.

      So far the ruse is working.

      Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
      Putin got what he wanted. No way in hell does Kiev now got the balls to join NATO, let alone jump through the reform hoops necessary to join NATO. If they're this chickenshit to stand up to Putin, then they ain't got the balls to openly defy him to join NATO.
      You would think Putin achieved that objective back in 2014 but apparently not. He had to mobilise again.

      What does he have to do this time to prevent another repeat in the future ?

      Those Ukranians are plucky

      If Ukraine manage to convince him they will not join NATO he goes to his grave in peace.

      It's become an existential thing for him.

      Mao threw two million troops into Korea for the same reason when NATO was just one year old.
      Last edited by Double Edge; 06 Feb 22,, 01:10.

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      • aka The Ukranians coming to their senses

        What to you meets this definition? What do they need to do to come to their senses?
        “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
        Mark Twain

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        • Originally posted by Albany Rifles View Post
          aka The Ukranians coming to their senses

          What to you meets this definition? What do they need to do to come to their senses?
          Politely allow Putin to devour all of Ukraine east of the Dnieper River, I'm guessing.
          Supporting or defending Donald Trump is such an unforgivable moral failing that it calls every bit of your judgement and character into question. Nothing about you should be trusted if you can look at this man and find redeemable value

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          • Originally posted by Albany Rifles View Post
            aka The Ukranians coming to their senses

            What to you meets this definition? What do they need to do to come to their senses?
            Refer to OOE's comment

            As for the expression that's how my commentators put it.

            That is how the crisis winds down.

            Originally posted by TopHatter View Post

            Politely allow Putin to devour all of Ukraine east of the Dnieper River, I'm guessing.
            Crimea is gone for good. As for any more is up to Ukraine
            Last edited by Double Edge; 06 Feb 22,, 00:01.

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            • Originally posted by Firestorm View Post
              Since NATO has made clear they will not directly intervene the best chance for Ukraine is to avoid a conflict by whatever means possible.
              That's good enough

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              • Originally posted by Mithridates View Post
                This is gonna sound really out of left field, but if Putin decided to push all the way to the French coast, could he?
                Resources ? he does not have them

                Originally posted by Mithridates View Post
                It makes sense to threaten a nuclear attack to deter a conventional one.
                Nukes only deter nukes. Nukes don't deter conventional or sub conventional

                It's possible to have conventional and sub under a nuke umbrella but there are limits to how far it can go.
                Last edited by Double Edge; 06 Feb 22,, 00:47.

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                • Originally posted by rj1 View Post

                  But it seems we think an attack is more likely than the Ukrainians do.
                  Already made this point to OOE earlier

                  Reached the same conclusion as you did but OOE said Ukraine wants NATO to fight this one for them.

                  Ain't happening.

                  Then he said they will try their best not to test Russia. Meaning they are cowering.

                  When Zelensky tells Biden he does not think an attack is imminent i'd like to think Zelensky knows what he is saying.

                  In fact i was even willing to give a Ukranian batallion commander the benefit of the doubt.

                  Both that commander & Zelensky are saying the same thing.
                  Last edited by Double Edge; 06 Feb 22,, 01:02.

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                  • Oh for Pete sakes, the Russians ain't the Chinese and the DNR/LNR ain't the Sino-Indo Border. The Chinese didn't attack because they could not win. The Russians outman, outgun, out-position, and will out-maneuver the Ukrainians. Until January, NATO troops were within LOS of the DNR/LNR shooting war. They were the trip wire to prevent DNR and LNR troops from attacking into the Ukrainian rear. This allowed the Ukrainians not to build a defence-in-depth, the counter to maneuver war, ie using NATO troops as a deterence than to dig trenches.

                    NATO has not completely left the UKR. They are in the Western UKR outside the immediate combat area. It is certain that these NATO troops are in target areas as anything to do with the Ukrainian military is a target area.

                    And right now, Putin is ignoring Kiev. He is making demands of NATO, not of Kiev. He already got Kiev where he wants her. He's making moves against NATO, hoping to get a little crack in the Alliance and he is using Kiev to do it. If he attacks, he most certainly would take Kiev, and thus reuniting the Rus (not Russian) peoples. If he doesn't attack, the Russian speakers will most certainly gain a bigger influence. The question is which gains him more with the least cost.

                    I have little faith that Ukrainian partisans would make life miserable for the Russians. There are too many Russian speaking Ukrainians who would gladly match bloodlust with the Ukrainian speakers.
                    Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 06 Feb 22,, 08:24.
                    Chimo

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                    • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post




                      Crimea is gone for good. As for any more is up to Ukraine
                      A land corridor.
                      In the realm of spirit, seek clarity; in the material world, seek utility.

                      Leibniz

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Parihaka View Post
                        A land corridor.
                        The Colonel interviewed below agrees



                        Let's get straight into the meat of it

                        15:36
                        Q. Let me ask you a point-blank question sir, do you think these guys will actually invade ?

                        A. A point-blank answer, No.

                        They will not. I do not think Russia will invade and i'm going to tell you the military options why i feel this way.

                        Let me clarify when I say invade I don't mean those classical pincer invasions of 1939. No, you won't have those two tank groups moving from eastern Ukraine and Belarus that converge on Kiev. No, that will not happen.

                        Firstly, it'll be too expensive and that invasion will unify NATO. Instead what Putin is going to do is, he could, should he want to even launch a military incursion. A likely scenario is to establish a land bridge up to the Crimea, which they've already annexed. It's connected now by the sea of Azov. They could have a small incursion in the Donbass region which reaches up to there

                        The other thing is they can keep on encouraging Russian separatists in Donetsk, in Luhansk along with the Spetznaz participating perhaps in civil clothes or whatever and then declare independent states like they did with Abkhazia, South Ossetia or like in Georgia, remember in 2008.

                        That means all of the Crimea is de facto part of Russia. It is their way of punishing Ukraine.

                        There are other actions. You can have pinprick actions along the border, classic soviet tactics of salami slicing.

                        Which slice of that salami is going to be the provocation ? they move into a village here, a district there. Who knows whether they are Russian troops or separatists.

                        Which of the salami slices is the west going to react to ?

                        The little green men ?

                        A: yeah, classic soviet tactics. Let's not forget Putin is classic Soviet man. This is what they would do. Just raise the bar.

                        Now there is one more option. They can go in for regime change. The present regime is hard against the Russians but the opposing party the nashi(?) party is pro-Russian. i would say it is more inclined towards Russia.

                        So they create so much uncertainty, they create so much turmoil within Ukraine that you have a political changeover. And then you have a political party which is now more favorably inclined to Russian demands.

                        With your pinprick slicing, with your political aim, with your economical blackmail and things like this you have a classic hybrid war situation in which you've attained your aims without actually fighting.

                        I'm sure the Chinese are watching, Sir

                        You can bet they're watching with both eyes wide open.
                        Last edited by Double Edge; 06 Feb 22,, 18:05.

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                        • Originally posted by Chunder View Post
                          I've been thinking a bit about this as it really isn't just about Russia for the U.S. There is an overarching security structure that probably forces the West's hand to act. The Baltics & NATO security being one, but it's not the worlds 11th largest economy you're overly concerned about, it's the world's No. 2 economy doing the same.

                          Russia probably needs to be made an example out of for a prolonged period of time because much nastier things lie in wait otherwise. Better the world's 11th be this example than no 1 & 2 going head to head.

                          I'm not sure Europe has reached the maturity to realise that the U.S. sees itself as no.1 and if it feels the above is in the equation then the U.S will place its POST Russia/Ukraine scenario firmly to the forefront?
                          Biden should be calling Macron, reminiding him of Mers El Kebir & Eisenhower/Suez.

                          I fear where the trip wire is not where we think it is. I fear that perhaps Putin actually thinks he's smart after 2014, but he's already enacted a chain of events, in nobodies interest. That we talk as if conflict in Ukraine is all we're facing.

                          Anyway, just musings - I don't mean pulling gun triggers I mean the complete and utter financial collapse of Russia. By necessary sacrifice. Damn I hate my thought.
                          If you want to deal with #2 then its better to handle #2 and not via proxy. This sends a message to all down the line.

                          The trouble with the present scenario is regardless of the outcome both West & Russia are weakened to China's advantage.

                          Nato offers Russia a concession then China angles for one with Taiwan because now the west looks weak.

                          West sanctions Russia pushing it further into the Chinese camp and creating two power blocks which will be difficult to stay out of.

                          We could do with Russia neutral or on our side with China.

                          Otherwise things get much more complicated for every one.

                          Russia is the aggrieved party here not the adversary.

                          China is the adversary and every one needs to be on the same page about that.
                          Last edited by Double Edge; 06 Feb 22,, 18:51.

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                          • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post

                            If you want to deal with #2 then its better to handle #2 and not via proxy. This sends a message to all down the line.

                            The trouble with the present scenario is regardless of the outcome both West & Russia are weakened to China's advantage.

                            Nato offers Russia a concession then China angles for one with Taiwan because now the west looks weak.

                            West sanctions Russia pushing it further into the Chinese camp and creating two power blocks which will be difficult to stay out of.

                            We could do with Russia neutral or on our side with China.

                            Otherwise things get much more complicated for every one.

                            Russia is the aggrieved party here not the adversary.

                            China is the adversary and every one needs to be on the same page about that.
                            Your rhetoric is not matching.

                            On one hand, you're arguing anything the West concedes here to Russia will be closely watched by China, which I agree with.

                            On the other hand in this post, you're saying we should join up with the Russians here to have them on our side for future relations with China. Well how without conceding and thereby looking weak? India can definitely be cozy with the Russians if they want as part of their Chinese deterrence strategy. It's not really an option for NATO states at this point while sticking up for the territorial integrity of Ukraine.
                            Last edited by rj1; 07 Feb 22,, 17:21.

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                            • Originally posted by rj1 View Post

                              Your rhetoric is not matching.

                              On one hand, you're arguing anything the West concedes here to Russia will be closely watched by China, which I agree with.

                              On the other hand in this post, you're saying we should join up with the Russians here to have them on our side for future relations with China. Well how without conceding and thereby looking weak? India can definitely be cozy with the Russians if they want as part of their Chinese deterrence strategy. It's not really an option for NATO states at this point while sticking up for the territorial integrity of Ukraine.
                              It would weaken NATO and place the Baltics at risk.

                              One other point to consider....you see all these nations over the past 25+ years who have clamored to join NATO...how many have clamored to join into the Russian camp?
                              “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
                              Mark Twain

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post

                                Russia is the aggrieved party here not the adversary.

                                China is the adversary and every one needs to be on the same page about that.
                                Boo hoo hoo, poor Russia. Sounds almost like poor India instead.

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