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  • #61
    Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    Parroting Moscow's line

    Bending over backwards.
    Seems more for domestic consumption to me. An attempt to avoid panic among their citizens after countries started withdrawing families of diplomatic personnel from Ukraine and regular international media reports of an imminent invasion. What concessions have they given to Putin to characterize this as bending backwards?

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    • #62
      No defiance. No mobilization. No warfooting.
      Chimo

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      • #63
        China's top diplomat spoke with his US counterpart on Thursday, warning Washington to "stop interfering" in the Winter Olympics and stressing that Russia's security concerns in Europe should be "taken seriously".

        Beijing hopes to turn next week's Games into a soft power triumph.

        But the lead-up has been clouded by a US-led diplomatic boycott over China's human rights record, particularly towards its Uyghur Muslim minority in the Xinjiang region.

        "The most urgent priority right now is that the US should stop interfering in the Beijing Winter Olympics," foreign minister Wang Yi said during a call with Secretary of State Antony Blinken, according to a foreign ministry statement.

        He added that Washington must also "stop playing with fire" on the Taiwan issue.

        Both officials also discussed the growing tensions in Europe over Ukraine, with Wang telling Blinken that Russia's security concerns "should be taken seriously".

        "All parties should completely abandon the Cold War mentality and form a balanced, effective and sustainable European security mechanism through negotiation," Wang said.

        "Russia's reasonable security concerns should be taken seriously and resolved."

        In a nod to Moscow's concerns about the expansion of the NATO alliance in Europe Wang added that "regional security cannot be guaranteed by strengthening or even expanding military blocs".

        The State Department's readout of the call made no mention of the Olympics and instead focused on Ukraine.

        "Secretary Blinken underscored the global security and economic risks posed by further Russian aggression against Ukraine and conveyed that de-escalation and diplomacy are the responsible way forward," the statement read.

        Global concerns are growing over a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine, as tens of thousands of Russian troops have been stationed at the border in recent weeks.

        In response, the US and other NATO member states have been conducting intense diplomacy with Russian President Vladimir Putin in recent days, as well as providing military reinforcement to Ukraine.

        The US and its NATO allies have said they are ready for any eventuality.

        Russia, which has a troubled historical relationship with Ukraine, has fueled an insurgency in the former Soviet republic's east that has killed more than 13,000 people since 2014.

        Russia that year also seized Crimea after the overthrow of a government in Kyiv that had resisted efforts to move closer to Europe.

        Moscow has denied planning to invade Ukraine but has also said it wants guarantees that the country will not join NATO.

        China often opposes "external interference" in how other countries are run.

        But it has been especially reluctant to speak out against its close strategic ally Russia, which is a fellow permanent member of the UN Security Council and often finds itself at loggerheads with the same western powers as China.
        Pressing for me is exactly why the US is getting involved anyway. Unless there's some fucked up secret notion of boots on the ground, all that is happening is pressurizing Ukraine to spill more Ukrainian blood.
        In the realm of spirit, seek clarity; in the material world, seek utility.

        Leibniz

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        • #64
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          In the realm of spirit, seek clarity; in the material world, seek utility.

          Leibniz

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          • #65
            Originally posted by Parihaka View Post
            Pressing for me is exactly why the US is getting involved anyway. Unless there's some fucked up secret notion of boots on the ground, all that is happening is pressurizing Ukraine to spill more Ukrainian blood.
            We've fucked up by allowing former Soviet repbulics to join NATO. As a result, defending Latvia, Estonia, and Luthiania is already probamatic. Allowing Kiev to fall back into Moscow's orbit and stationing Russian military forces in the UKR would make that task near impossible.
            Chimo

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            • #66
              Originally posted by Parihaka View Post

              Pressing for me is exactly why the US is getting involved anyway. Unless there's some fucked up secret notion of boots on the ground, all that is happening is pressurizing Ukraine to spill more Ukrainian blood.
              The US & UK are involved because of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances. The Memorandum was an agreement between the US, UK & Russia that former Soviet Republics in possession of Soviet Era nuclear weapons that those nations would voluntarily give up their nukes in return for a guarantee on their security. It was living under this umbrella is why Ukraine's armed forces were so ill prepare in 2014...Ukraine believed Russia would stick to the agreement.

              The NATO countries are involved because of the possible threat against NATO members in the Baltics and what would prevent Russia from going after them.

              https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budape...ity_Assurances
              “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
              Mark Twain

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              • #67
                Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                No defiance. No mobilization. No warfooting.
                Getting ready militarily for a possible invasion is one thing, but I was commenting on your response to their official statements. Whatever they may be doing to get ready militarily, their official statements in the current times need to be calm and measured both to reassure their own people not to panic and to make sure they do not precipitate a crisis due to reckless talk. Since NATO has made clear they will not directly intervene the best chance for Ukraine is to avoid a conflict by whatever means possible.

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                • #68
                  It's called standing up to the bully. China did the same thing to India as the Russians are now doing to the UKR. You didn't back down and in fact, dare the Chinese to escalate. Kiev is cowering in the corner hoping not to provoke Putin. That is bending backwards.

                  The best chance for Kiev is to call up her reserves and block the invasion routes. She has more than enough manpower to go toe-to-toe with a 100,000 Russian invasion force. Any tech advantage the Russians enjoyed is negated by the Ukrainian home terrain advantage.

                  While deterrence is not warighting, not getting ready also ain't deterence.
                  Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 27 Jan 22,, 20:08.
                  Chimo

                  Comment


                  • #69
                    Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                    Any tech advantage the Russians enjoyed is negated by the Ukrainian home terrain advantage.
                    Russian airpower and artillery?
                    Supporting or defending Donald Trump is such an unforgivable moral failing that it calls every bit of your judgement and character into question. Nothing about you should be trusted if you can look at this man and find redeemable value

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                    • #70
                      Hugging tactics
                      Chimo

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                      • #71
                        Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                        Hugging tactics
                        What's to stop the Russians from opening their invasion with a hurricane barrage of artillery and air-to-ground munitions against Ukrainian positions and holding back their armor and infantry until the Ukrainian positions are flattened or otherwise neutralized?
                        Supporting or defending Donald Trump is such an unforgivable moral failing that it calls every bit of your judgement and character into question. Nothing about you should be trusted if you can look at this man and find redeemable value

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                        • #72
                          Well, that would depend on which side makes better use of the reccee intel. The Russians' reccee by fire (you bombard area x where you think the Ukrainians to be and then advance before the Ukrainians, if any, could recover from physiological shock) or the Ukrainians' reccee by death (the Russians are advancing from position x because you lost contact with your peoiple at x). That is to say the reccee battle.

                          If the Russians win the reccee battle, then they can isolate and reduce the Ukrainians before the Ukrainians can rush forward. If the Ukrainians win the reccee battle, then they can ambush the Russians with CQ action, negating superior Russian fire.
                          Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 27 Jan 22,, 21:27.
                          Chimo

                          Comment


                          • #73
                            https://www.politico.com/playbook

                            BREAKING OVERNIGHT IN UKRAINE — CNN’s Matthew Chance and Jeremy Herb: “A call between U.S. President JOE BIDEN and Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKY on Thursday ‘did not go well,’ as the pair disagree on the ‘risk level’ of a Russian attack, a senior Ukrainian official told CNN. The White House, however, disputed the official’s account, warning that anonymous sources were ‘leaking falsehoods.’ They did state that Biden warned Zelensky an imminent invasion is a ‘distinct possibility.’

                            “On the call, which the Ukrainian official described as ‘long and frank,’ Biden warned his Ukrainian counterpart that … an invasion was now virtually certain once the ground freezes later in February, according to the official. Zelensky, however, restated his position that the threat from Russia remains ‘dangerous but ambiguous,’ saying it’s not certain that an attack will take place, the official added.”
                            I'm kind of confused. We're telling the Ukrainians an invasion is certain within a month, and there's a disagreement between the two countries on risk level of a Russian attack?
                            Last edited by rj1; 28 Jan 22,, 14:09.

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                            • #74
                              Originally posted by rj1 View Post
                              https://www.politico.com/playbook



                              I'm kind of confused. We're telling the Ukrainians an invasion is certain within a month, and there's a disagreement between the two countries on risk level of a Russian attack?
                              ZELENSKY: "The destiny of Ukraine will not be decided behind Ukraine's back by President Biden."

                              regardless of the "he said she said" of the actual phone call, you can't be any blunter than that.
                              In the realm of spirit, seek clarity; in the material world, seek utility.

                              Leibniz

                              Comment


                              • #75
                                US tries to name and shame Russian disinformation on Ukraine

                                WASHINGTON (AP) — In a break from the past, the U.S. and its allies are increasingly revealing their intelligence findings as they confront Russian preparations for a possible invasion of Ukraine, looking to undercut Russian President Vladimir Putin’s plans by exposing them and deflecting his efforts to shape world opinion.

                                The White House in recent weeks publicized what it said was a developing Russian “false-flag” operation to create pretext for an invasion. Britain named specific Ukrainians it accused of having ties to Russian intelligence officers plotting to overthrow President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The U.S. also released a map of Russian military positions and detailed how officials believe Russia will try to attack Ukraine with as many as 175,000 troops.

                                Experts credit the White House for declassifying intelligence and moving to rebut false claims before they’re made — a so-called “prebuttal” that undercuts their effectiveness better than an after-the-fact explanation.

                                ​​​​​​​But the release of information isn’t without risks. Intelligence assessments carry varying degrees of certainty, and beyond offering photos of troop movements, the U.S. and its allies have provided little other proof. Moscow has dismissed Washington’s claims as hysteria and invoked past American intelligence failures, including false information put forward about Iraq’s weapons programs.

                                There are no clear signs of change so far from Russia, which continues to move forces toward Ukraine and into Belarus, an ally to Ukraine’s north. There is growing pessimism in Washington and London about ongoing diplomatic efforts and a belief that Putin will likely mount some sort of invasion in the next several weeks.

                                Russia is known for using disinformation as a tactic to sow confusion and discord as part of its overall conflict strategy. When Russia invaded Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula in 2014, it mounted a campaign to sway ethnic Russian residents of the territory. State media and social media accounts linked to Russia promoted allegations that the West was manipulating protests in Kyiv and false or unconfirmed tales of lurid crimes committed by Ukrainian forces.

                                This time, the U.S. and allies say, Russia is trying to portray Ukrainian leaders as aggressors and to persuade its own citizens to support military action. At the same time, the U.S. and its allies allege, Russia has positioned operatives in eastern Ukraine who could use explosives to carry out acts of sabotage against Russia’s own proxy forces and then blame Kyiv.

                                The White House has repeatedly highlighted what it sees as disinformation and is privately sharing additional intelligence with allies including Ukraine. The State Department recently published a fact sheet listing and rejecting several Russian claims. And the Treasury Department sanctioned four men accused of ties to influence operations intended to set the pretext in Ukraine for a new invasion.

                                White House press secretary Jen Psaki described a “strategic decision to call out disinformation when we see it.”

                                “We are much more cognizant of the Russian disinformation machine than we were in 2014,” she said Wednesday, adding, “We need to be very clear with the global community and the U.S. public what they’re trying to do and why.”

                                A European Union official told reporters Friday that Moscow-aligned outlets are promoting justifications for conflict in a similar manner to eight years ago. One narrative those outlets are promoting — in apparent response to the recent American allegations — is the U.S. may be planning its own false-flag operation to trigger a confrontation in eastern Ukraine.

                                Moscow continues to make demands that NATO not accept Ukraine or further expand to any other countries. And after British intelligence accused him of being a possible Russia-backed candidate for president, Ukrainian politician Yevheniy Murayev denied the claim and told the AP that it “looks ridiculous and funny.”

                                Meanwhile, Washington and Moscow go back and forth online. Kremlin-backed RT.com on Dec. 21 posted a video alleging “US private military companies are amassing CHEMICAL COMPONENTS in Eastern Ukraine.” The State Department rejected that claim in its fact sheet on Russian propaganda. Russia’s Foreign Ministry then responded with tweets “debunking @StateDept ‘facts’ on Russian disinformation on Ukraine.”

                                Washington’s efforts have raised questions in Kyiv, where Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has taken a different public approach of trying to tamp down public fears of an expanded war even as many Ukrainians prepare for possible combat.

                                Ukrainian officials privately question why the Biden administration is warning about an impending invasion but not imposing preemptive sanctions or taking action against the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which has been criticized for giving Moscow more leverage over Ukraine and Western Europe. The Biden administration lobbied Democrats in Congress to oppose a Republican-sponsored bill that would have required the imposition of sanctions against the pipeline, which has not yet gone into operation.

                                The White House has threatened tough sanctions if Russia does invade and is preparing to move forces to NATO’s eastern flank in the event of an invasion. The U.S. and Western allies are also sending weapons and missile systems to Ukraine.

                                Molly McKew, a writer and lecturer on Russian influence, said the administration’s moves to counter Russia’s influence efforts needed to be accompanied by a clearer statement of American goals and plans to repel any invasion.

                                Publicly identifying Russia’s actions alone will not stop Russia from carrying them out, said McKew, a former adviser to President Mikhail Saakashvili of Georgia, which fought a war in 2008 with Russia and still is trying to regain control of separatist regions backed by Moscow.

                                “They’re trying to apply disinformation thinking to military domains,” she said. “You absolutely cannot expose away the crisis.”

                                In both the U.S. and Ukraine, experts say, there is far more societal awareness now of state-sponsored disinformation. Russia in the past several years has continued to bombard Ukrainians with text messages and false stories during the ongoing war in eastern Ukraine in which at least 14,000 people have died. And Russia’s interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election led to several investigations and years of often fractious debates.

                                Bret Schafer, senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund’s Alliance for Securing Democracy, said that while there are risks to elevating false claims in the process of debunking them, “there is a need to head off information threats as opposed to responding to them after they’ve been let out into the wild.”

                                But publicly accusing Russia of misbehavior is ultimately a limited deterrent. “They don’t care about reputational damage,” he said.

                                ___
                                Supporting or defending Donald Trump is such an unforgivable moral failing that it calls every bit of your judgement and character into question. Nothing about you should be trusted if you can look at this man and find redeemable value

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