2021-2022 Russo-Ukrainian War

[Bigfella]

Turkey seems to want to play both sides... dangerous game, that.

Turkey has experience playing such games. As AR said, it has something that makes it indispensable to everyone. I could see miscalculation having internal consequences - bringing down a government, etc. Beyond that Turkey would have to fuck up massively. Don't see it. NATO & Russia arguably need Turkey more than Turkey needs them right now.

[Albany Rifles]

Maybe the US can sweeten the pot!
There's still the F14's and the modernization kits, that Turks want!
Maybe that will soften their stance on Finland&Sweden!
...and once those two are in, then Turkey can go piss up a rope for all I care!
Better to loose an ally, then have one in the alliance that plays both ends against the middle!

They want F-14s? Those ancient parts hogs! Are you sure? Are you thinking F-15s?

[Albany Rifles]

Even though justified its still a very risky move on Armenia's part. Putin doesn't have to do much to 'punish' Armenia. No direct military intervention required, just a phone call to Azerbaijan telling them they're 'off the leash' and that Russia won't intervene if military action resumes with perhaps the promise of some real time intelligence to sweeten the pot. And better yet from Putin's perspective? Doing so sends a clear message to every other member of the his little private private club about the consequences of screwing with him. Oh and I also hope the President of Armenia has good life insurance a private food taster, he's probably going to need both.

Yeah...it's a ballsy move...but it is showing cracks are occurring

[Amled]

They want F-14s? Those ancient parts hogs! Are you sure? Are you thinking F-15s?

Typo...Oops!
It's the F16's that the US won't release to them due to the sanctions.
Seemed that the Turks were more interested in fighting Kurds then IS!!!

[jlvfr]

They want F-14s? Those ancient parts hogs! Are you sure? Are you thinking F-15s?

Someone was thinking "Iran" instead of "Turkey"!

[Officer of Engineers]

It's the F16's that the US won't release to them due to the sanctions.
Seemed that the Turks were more interested in fighting Kurds then IS!!!

Oh it's way more than that. The Turks lost access to the F-35 because they bought the S400 instead of the MM104 PATRIOT. They were told there was no way we would allow a Russian system to be integrated into a network with F-22s and F-35s. They opted to go with the S400 and build their own TFX (F-16 replacement).

[Monash]

..... They opted to go with the S400 and build their own TFX (F-16 replacement).

And hows that working out for them do you know?

[Officer of Engineers]

One batch of S400 is on the ground. Talks are on the way for a 2nd batch but Ankara wants guaranteed delivery, no delays. The TFX is in trouble, else Ankara would not be talking 70 F-16s (F-35s are out of the picture).

[Albany Rifles]

One batch of S400 is on the ground. Talks are on the way for a 2nd batch but Ankara wants guaranteed delivery, no delays. The TFX is in trouble, else Ankara would not be talking 70 F-16s (F-35s are out of the picture).

The newer Lawn Darts are still a very capable aircraft...but they ain't F-35s. Grievous error on the part of the Turks.

[Amled]

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-holo.../32150214.html

Today across a dark cold Ukraine its people are holding, what can only be described as a macabre and deeply ironic Day of Remembrance,
known in Ukraine as Holodomor.
A day where they remember the millions of Ukrainians that died of starvation and neglect in the 30’s, by the order of a Russian despot!
Here we are 90 years later; and the more things change the more they remain the same!
With Russians out to destroy the Ukrainian people, and again at the orders of a Russian despot.
Slava Ukraini

[Monash]

Well its the middle of mud season so I'm expecting something of a hiatus on this thread for a couple of weeks or so until the ground finally hardens up enough for offensive ops to restart. My money would on the Uki's to kick of first while they still have some momentum behind them.

[statquo]

Well its the middle of mud season so I'm expecting something of a hiatus on this thread for a couple of weeks or so until the ground finally hardens up enough for offensive ops to restart. My money would on the Uki's to kick off first while they still have some momentum behind them.

Combat seems to have picked up in the east with withdrawn Russian troops from Kherson being sent to the Svatove-Kreminna line and mobilized fodder being poured into Bakhmut to eat bullets for Wagner.

[Albany Rifles]

Another great thread from LTG(R) Mark Hertling. The only thing he got incorrect was it was Courtney Hodges 1st Army that captured the Remagen Bridge and not Patton's 3rd Army.

https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/sta...29703234785281

A thread by MarkHertling


Many suggesting how Ukraine should "keep up the momentum" against the Russians in the NE (Donbas) while continuing to Melitopol (further east from Kherson Oblast).

While certainly desirable, both those efforts will be tough.

Here's why. A brief

1st, let's discuss the NE, Donbas.

Since 2014, trench warfare in the Donbas has been prevalent.

The line between the falsely described "people's republics" of Donetsk & Luhansk has become a no-man's land, and Russia's attempt at a "frozen conflict." (washingtonpost.com/world/interact…)



Small UKR villages were shelled & extensively mined. Prior to 9/24 there weren't many territorial gains by either side.

Expanding this area was an early (& failed) RU operational objective.

A July @TheStudyofWar map/article is a terrific primer
(understandingwar.org/backgrounder/r…)



Though fighting has been extensive these last few months, & UA has made some major gains, both sides are back to previous LOC (line of contact): the trench line.





The history of "trench warfare" goes back 1000s of years, with the first reported "Battle of the Trench" at Medina.

But almost every war has seen these kinds of trench lines, in greater or lesser distances.



There were trench battles (Petersburg & Vicksburg) during the Civil War, but the most famous was the Western Front of WWI.

Most (not all) trench fights have been a result of technology advancing faster than mobility.

Soldiers' fear of machine guns, accurate cannons, etc.



I've been to WWI battlefields on "staff rides" (Somme, Verdun, Flanders). At all there are still trenches, underground HQs, unexploded shells in farmers' fields.

The allies introduced tanks at at Passchendaele in 1916, then at Ypres in 1917...they weren't much help.



The British even dug a tunnel for two years to get under the German trench lines at Messines to explode 19 mines, killing 10,000 Germans in what would become the largest explosion until the atom bomb 30 years later. (historyireland.com/biggest-explos…) In effect, a "trench" is really an extended defensive positions, with mines, dug in troops, preplanned artillery and direct fire weapons, open space that doesn't offer cover. It's challenging to attack.

A force can chose to go around, over, under, or through a dug in enemy. At our US Army training centers, we train Combined Arms breach ops.

In effect, using everything you have - intelligence, suppression, tanks, precision artillery, infantry, engineers & more.

Here's a film that shows how tough it is & what it requires.



In years commanding & training units, my view is the combined arms breach is the toughest mission imaginable.

It requires extensive training, lots of practice, a combination of resources that only advanced armies have, and adaptive & smart leaders. (benning.army.mil/armor/earmor/c…) To regain the Donbas, Ukraine's Army will face a tough fight.

They will need precision artillery, great leadership, & ever-increasing combined arms capability.

In addition to being a tough fight, it will also take time to attrit the RU force.

They'll succeed, but not fast. Let's turn to the SE, Kherson Oblast.

This fight will require a different approach, using conventional forces (with good intel, solid maneuver and firepower, precision targeting) as well as help from territorials & resistance,

And, it will require crossing the Dnipro! Different from attacking a dug-in defending enemy in the NE, this fight will require more maneuver, precision strikes, special operations...and river crossing ability!

Those who are saying "UA must continue to roll east" haven't looked at this map.





And beyond looking at this map, one must understand the width of the Dnipro, and that most of the E-W bridges have been destroyed.

These 2 pictures, taken in peacetime near Kherson city, give an idea of how challenging a river crossing will be with massive amounts of troops.





During WWII, a huge ally concern was how friendly forces would get across the Rhine to continue their atk. German forces had blown bridges behind them to prevent allies from advancing.

GEN Patton's forces were lucky to capture 1 bridge - at Remagen.

It made the difference.



If attacking a trench line with a breach is the hardest mission, an opposed river crossing and the continuation of an assault is a close second.

This is what a large part of the UA will have to do to continue the attack east, toward Melitopol, and beyond. UA has been masterful thus far in attacking & defeating RU forces that have occupied their sovereign land.

As I said last week, phase IV of this fight will be tough...I've outlined the reasons why.

I remain convinced Ukraine will succeed, w/ NATO & US support.

[S2]

Great post, A.R.! Couldn't find the vid in the article so I posted it here.

Combined Arms Breaching Ops-

[Monash]

Combat seems to have picked up in the east with withdrawn Russian troops from Kherson being sent to the Svatove-Kreminna line and mobilized fodder being poured into Bakhmut to eat bullets for Wagner.

Yes, it's colder up there so the ground might be a bit harder. Still seems to be mostly the usual Russian mish mash of localized (and costly) infantry attacks supported by heavy shelling. (Who knew WW1 tactics would be such a hit with Russians). Thing is though there's no sign of a larger coordinated offensive from anyone and I'm still betting on not seeing one for a couple of weeks yet at least. But Ukraine can't afford to wait too long either. Russia may not be able to pull off any large scale offensive just yet but it can entrench like there's no tomorrow.