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  • #46
    Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
    Somebody correct me if I'm wrong, but no matter what equipment that the West sends to Ukraine, the Ukrainian armed forces have no answer to Russian airpower, cyber & electronic warfare and artillery.

    I mean, what good are ATGMs if Russian tube artillery is hurling a typhoon of 152mm shells into their trench lines?

    Am I way off base here?
    No that is what i think too. These are just token shows of support.


    Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
    For the past several months, Ukraine and its western partners have been watching Russia methodically build up a powerful force of over 100,000 soldiers on their shared border. While he claims not to intend an invasion, President Vladimir Putin has several objectives.

    He wants to
    1) appear strong and decisive to his domestic base;
    2) divide the U.S. and NATO over the response to a potential strike;
    3) impress his allies, especially President Xi Jinping of China;
    4) prevent Ukraine from joining NATO and the E.U., tying them Russia’s sphere of influence; and
    5) make the Biden administration appear weak and indecisive in the run-up to the 2021 midterms—especially after the U.S. failed to support former ally Afghanistan.
    This is the plan. Putin threatens force in order to achieve it. Nobody wants a war.

    Local commentators telling me the western media is blowing this out of proportion.

    Let's see how many of those objectives Putin gets as time goes on.

    He's currently working on (2)


    Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
    "This business will get out of control. It will get out of control and we'll be lucky to live through it."
    Escalate in order to de-escalate
    Last edited by Double Edge; 25 Jan 22,, 17:40.

    Comment


    • #47
      Originally posted by S2 View Post
      Buck,

      "...I see Poland becoming in this decade what the German Bundeswehr was in the 1980s..."

      Does that mean the Bundeswehr might become the East German Army of the 1980s? I wonder if Poland and it's Baltic neighbors increasingly wonder if, not unlike 1939, they see themselves between two carnivorous beasts. I wonder if Germany doesn't increasingly see itself in Russia's camp? The smell these days must seem similar to the reek oozing from the pores of French politicians and generals in 1940-defeatism.

      At every turn. Not enough brave souls. Talk about a house of cards, all it took was an invasion eight years ago. Highly visible open theft. Not unlike Germans marching into the Rhineland. Weak but daring. Now...less weak, even more daring and, like lil' piggies, we go running to our straw and wood houses as the big, bad wolf shows he's more than willing to blow and burn.

      Oh! Don't look over your shoulder. Ji is smiling and the ayatollahs are giggling.

      We're laughable.
      Steve, good to see ya!

      In the 1980s the Bundeswehr was one hell of an army. 12 divisions with modern weapons plus huge amounts of corps level artillery. That is where Poland is heading today...maybe not that large but very capable and modern.

      The German military has become a ghost of its former self, sadly.
      “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
      Mark Twain

      Comment


      • #48
        Originally posted by S2 View Post
        I wonder if Germany doesn't increasingly see itself in Russia's camp?
        Considering their recently resigned Naval chief's comments at a think tank event in Bombay ?

        I too wonder what is happening in Germany these days if some one as senior talks like that

        Originally posted by S2 View Post
        Ji is smiling and the ayatollahs are giggling
        They get a temporary breather.

        But there needs to be a modus vivendi here if bigger problems are to be addressed.

        I thought that the Biden administration were doing just that until Putin upped the ante.

        What is interesting is Putin finds it more pertinent to talk to the US than the EU.

        Putin has three entities to handle. EU, US & China.

        ALL with an order of magnitude larger economies.

        He's been good at playing weak hands to date. Punching way above his weight.
        Last edited by Double Edge; 25 Jan 22,, 18:02.

        Comment


        • #49
          A little graphical input on what we are providing.

          The photo with the guy kneeling is rigging 24 JAVELIN Missiles in their launch cannisters on a 463L pallet.

          The photo with the airman writing is of SMAW...a bunker buster munition which is also effective against APCs, both tracked and wheeled...basically everything below a tank.

          The bottom diagram is what a C-17 can carry for info.

          This is on top of what we have already provided as well in addition to the load the British provided last week.

          Also note everyone who operates C-17s...a lot of names which have ponied up weapons and equipment.



          Click image for larger version  Name:	Javelin 1.jpg Views:	0 Size:	804.6 KB ID:	1580122 Click image for larger version  Name:	SMAW.jpg Views:	0 Size:	682.3 KB ID:	1580123 Click image for larger version  Name:	C-17.jpg Views:	0 Size:	152.5 KB ID:	1580124
          “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
          Mark Twain

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          • #50
            Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
            Already done
            I wrote AT (as in Anti-tank) trenches and I was refering to a prepared brigade defence.

            Chimo

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            • #51
              Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
              I wrote AT (as in Anti-tank) trenches and I was refering to a prepared brigade defence.
              Cmdr. Dzhemil Izmailov, who leads a Ukrainian mechanized infantry battalion, said the Russian army would face stiff resistance along the Donbas front line, citing multiple lines of defense.

              “We are prepared,” he said.
              Not good enough ?

              Comment


              • #52
                WTF, a Cmdr is a naval officer. A battalion CO is a LCol, equivelent to a Cmdr but you would think a military article would get the terms right.

                Not good enough. Once you breached a fortified line, it becomes a battle of maneuver, unless there's a second fortified line the Russians have to breach. Earthworks are the easiest fortifications you can make since you don't need additionall material and shovels are damned cheap. In a maneuver battle, the Russians have it hands down over the Ukrainians so you have to deny them maneuver room and that means fortifications. You can and should have maneuver forces behind the fortifications to plug breaches or acting as a tiger force when the Russians are channelled into a KZ.

                You want strong on weak, not weak on strong. The Russians are strong on maneuver, the Ukrainians are not. The Ukranians are strong in prepared defence. The Russians are not.
                Chimo

                Comment


                • #53
                  Russia’s Possible Invasion of Ukraine | CSIS | Jan 13 2022

                  They have just one month of February to complete mechanised movements after that the ground turns to mud.

                  Comment


                  • #54
                    References a WOTR article on fait accompli in the Baltics to gauge Russian chances of accomplishing the same in Ukraine

                    Feeding The Bear: A Closer Look At Russian Army Logistics And The Fait Accompli | WOTR | Nov 23 2021

                    In his article “Feeding the Bear,”Alex Vershinin argues that there are serious logistical challenges to a Russian invasion that is supposed to roll over the Baltic states in 96 hours and present the West with a fait accompli. Russia has built an excellent war machine for fighting near its frontier and striking deep with long-range fires. However, Russia may have trouble with a sustained ground offensive far beyond Russian railroads without a major logistical halt or a massive mobilization of reserves.

                    As the operational depth in Ukraine is far greater than in the Baltics, a Russian invasion of Ukraine could be a longer affair than some anticipate due to the time and distance to bring up supplies.
                    It's looking quite hard for Russia to get things done here

                    Can't pulloff a fait accompli in the Baltics then its a stretch to do that with what remains of the Ukraine.

                    And taking Crimea in 2014 has already served the purpose.
                    Last edited by Double Edge; 25 Jan 22,, 23:37.

                    Comment


                    • #55
                      Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                      WTF, a Cmdr is a naval officer. A battalion CO is a LCol, equivelent to a Cmdr but you would think a military article would get the terms right.

                      Not good enough. Once you breached a fortified line, it becomes a battle of maneuver, unless there's a second fortified line the Russians have to breach. Earthworks are the easiest fortifications you can make since you don't need additionall material and shovels are damned cheap. In a maneuver battle, the Russians have it hands down over the Ukrainians so you have to deny them maneuver room and that means fortifications. You can and should have maneuver forces behind the fortifications to plug breaches or acting as a tiger force when the Russians are channelled into a KZ.

                      You want strong on weak, not weak on strong. The Russians are strong on maneuver, the Ukrainians are not. The Ukranians are strong in prepared defence. The Russians are not.
                      Can you tell whether the Russians are tactically deployed or just posturing ?

                      Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                      There is zero doubt in my mind that the UKR is extremely capable of repelling the Russians. All it takes is a will which they are lacking. The Iraqis did a better job in Kuwait than the Ukrainians are doing now. Why the Iraqis failed is that they did not obey the Soviet tenet that as soon as the Americans hit your lines, rush forward. It's not like the Ukrainians are lacking in military expertise. They have senior leadership that came out of the same Soviet military academies as the Russians.

                      The Ukrainians should have absolute confidence that they can repel the Russians. The fact that they don't says more of their unwillingness than of their incapabilities.
                      See, this suggests the latter.

                      It means Ukranians don't believe an invasion is imminent.
                      Last edited by Double Edge; 25 Jan 22,, 23:48.

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                      • #56
                        Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                        Can you tell whether the Russians are tactically deployed or just posturing ?
                        They're the same thing. Train as you fight. Fight as you train. The whole point about these exercises is to learn whether or not you can do it.

                        Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                        It means Ukranians don't believe an invasion is imminent.
                        Doesn't matter. Whether NATO gives concession to Putin or not, I will guarrantee you one thing. Kiev is going to bend over backwards not to test Putin.
                        Chimo

                        Comment


                        • #57
                          Parroting Moscow's line

                          From Ukraine urges calm, saying Russian invasion not imminent | CBC News

                          Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov told parliament that "as of today, there are no grounds to believe" that Russia is preparing to invade imminently, noting that its troops have not formed what he called a battle group that could force its way through the border.
                          Bending over backwards.
                          Chimo

                          Comment


                          • #58
                            Originally posted by rj1 View Post
                            What's the blockade?
                            The lack of constructive communication.

                            Originally posted by Albany Rifles View Post
                            In the 1980s the Bundeswehr was one hell of an army. 12 divisions with modern weapons plus huge amounts of corps level artillery.
                            The "huge amounts of " Corps Artillery was abandoned with Artillery Structure 85 (in 1985). After that each corps simply had six MGM-52 Lance launchers remaining as their nuclear portfolio.

                            We're now sending 5000 helmets to Ukraine btw.

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                            • #59
                              Originally posted by kato View Post
                              The "huge amounts of " Corps Artillery was abandoned with Artillery Structure 85 (in 1985). After that each corps simply had six MGM-52 Lance launchers remaining as their nuclear portfolio.

                              We're now sending 5000 helmets to Ukraine btw.
                              Ahh...after I left. And that's not what was being taught at Fort Benning...I'm looking at you Infantry School!

                              But that said the 1980s Bundeswehr was still a formidable combat force.
                              “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
                              Mark Twain

                              Comment


                              • #60
                                https://drpippa.substack.com/p/warwh...isolation=true

                                I don't find the argument Putin is doing a rope-a-dope here for the Suwalki Gap convincing, but the start of this talking about the Arctic cord cutting Russian submarines did the past year was fresh news to me.

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