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  • You mean Transnistria, right? Because Moldova doesn't control Transnistria. It's a Russian-occupied puppet state.
    "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

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    • Originally posted by Ironduke View Post
      You mean Transnistria, right? Because Moldova doesn't control Transnistria. It's a Russian-occupied puppet state.
      It's NATO recognized Moldovan territory. Ukrainian invasion would legally tentamount to an Act of War against Moldova. Neither NATO nor Keiv wants to deal with that headache and heartache of legally a 2 front war.
      Chimo

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      • "...I'm actually basing my assessement by the results on the ground and not by reports..."

        If you're not down-range, you're reading reports.

        "...Tactically, I see very little difference in Mariupol and Kherson."

        Gosh, I see a massive difference. The U.A. has chosen not to enter urban combat within the city of Kherson. Instead, they're applying consistent pressure at three points-northwest (Mykolaiv) and northeast (Inhulets Bridgehead) and, finally, from Vysokopilla southward. This has forced the Russians into defending forward while attacks on bridging/barges by HIMARS and more stress very marginal Russian logistics chains.

        Russia has consistently rubble-ized its way forward against points of resistance. When confronted with a coherent defense at Irpin/Bucha, did they maneuver to identify and exploit flanks? How about west of Donetsk currently? Bakhmut? Sieverodonetsk/Lysychansk? Far different approach from Ukraine, demonstrated repeatedly.

        "...AT mines are not high tech weapons..."

        FASCAM artillery delivered mines are higher tech than Ukraine possessed until delivered to and used by them. That's a step in the right direction for Ukraine and a very suitable role particularly right now along the Lyman-Kremmina cauldron. All sorts of other systems (Javelin/NLAWS/Panzerfaust 3/Stinger, etc, etc, etc) unavailable on February 24 are now routinely employed by the Ukrainian army. The results are before you and the tech appears very unequal.

        Further, you've not allowed for Ukrainian access to NATO technical intelligence resources? This has, without question, been a significant force multiplier. Where these NATO intel gathering resources a concern for Russia when planning their 3 Day war? You can be assured the Russian military are now acutely aware that we listen/see very well and share what we gather.

        Currently there appears to be something happening in the north of Kherson Oblast southward from Novovorontsovka toward Khreshchenivka along the west bank of the Dnieper-

        UA Attack

        "And it now looked like that Kharkov was a victory of oppertunity (Russian collapse) instead of planned maneuver."

        Ukrainian forces were unusually well-postured and prepared for their "opportunity". Ukraine certainly had contingencies but their Kharkiv offensive was premised upon Russian re-deployment south to Kherson where those forces were fixed by Ukraine's initial but ongoing offensive. Once deemed by the Ukrainian staff to have the proper force ratios felt necessary to initiate the Kharkiv offensive, they did so...

        ...as intended. And they're bouncing again (Lyman) and again (Kremmina). Svatove (north) and Sieverodonetsk/Lysychansk appear feasible.

        But what do I know? I'm not on the ground.
        "This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski
        "The only true currency in this bankrupt world is what you share with someone else when you're uncool." Lester Bangs

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        • I will rephrase. I do not read battle engagements nor twitter feeds. I only read who ends up with what after the fact. I do not see any tactical difference between Kherson and the Russians cutting the Mariupol LOCs. The very fact that Kherson remains in Russian hands does not eliminate the fact that their Marupol isolation actions are identicle to current Ukrainian Kherson ioslation actions. More Ukrainian ATGM kills happen with the STUHNA-P than NATO supplied ATGMs and the Russians have the KORNET which wrecked Israeli's MERKEVAs. The Ukrainians have more RPG-7s than all NASTO supplied system combined. Russia has its own artillery dispersed mine systems. Thus far, we have supplied nothing to Ukraine that gives them a technological edge over the Russians.

          But what do I know? I'm not on the ground. But what do I know? I'm not on the ground.
          We know the same thing. The second the Ukrainian flag is raised over the battlefield.
          Chimo

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          • "Thus far, we have supplied nothing to Ukraine that gives them a technological edge over the Russians"

            I disagree but my points made haven't swayed your opinion. I guess I'll let it rest.


            "This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski
            "The only true currency in this bankrupt world is what you share with someone else when you're uncool." Lester Bangs

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            • Thus far, we have supplied nothing to Ukraine that gives them a technological edge over the Russians.
              true up until ~June. now, not true.

              HIMARS, Excalibur, Caesars, HARM -- all of these are capabilities that outclass the Russian equivalent. but you're right in the sense that these capabilities (well, other than HIMARS) by themselves aren't what powers the Ukrainian offensive, but rather -how- the Ukrainians are using them. at an operational level, the Ukrainians have yet to do the hammer-hammer approach into a city like the way the Russians did at Mariupol, Severodonetsk, and Bakhmut. they simply can't afford that style of warfare.

              the Kharkiv offensive was not opportunistic -- it was planned. this should be obvious by the fact that the Ukrainians have managed follow-on operations to include bridging the Oskil river in multiple locations and having the logistics train to do so -- all while avoiding their own bridging disaster like the Russkis. it's also clear that the Ukrainians are learning to pull off more complex ops, too. if anything, Lyman is more than impressive than Kharkiv. Kharkiv was executed against an unaware enemy at a severe numerical disadvantage; that wasn't true with Lyman, where the Russians KNEW the Ukrainians were coming.

              AFU still outmaneuvered them, and also avoided a bloody urban fight in the process. the Russians were slaughtered in the retreat to Kreminna...and AFU is doing what you mentioned earlier. not giving the Russkis a chance to regroup, and hitting them again there.
              There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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              • Originally posted by astralis View Post
                Caesars
                Oh come on Eric, there's no way in hell a wheeled SPG got anything over a tracked one. And Russian SPGs outranged the CAESARs. As for the rest, our systems maybe better but in no way does that mean the Russian ones cannot inflict severe damage onto the Ukrainians. The fact that the Russians will not does not mean they cannot (if they were willing to accept casualties like the US did during LB 1 & II).

                Originally posted by astralis View Post
                the Kharkiv offensive was not opportunistic -- it was planned. this should be obvious by the fact that the Ukrainians have managed follow-on operations to include bridging the Oskil river in multiple locations and having the logistics train to do so -- all while avoiding their own bridging disaster like the Russkis.
                They avoided the disaster because the Russians couldn't run fast enough. You and I both know that once they got a target, the Russians could rain steel inside of 10 minutes. If the Russians fought tooth and nail (and that's the fight Ukrainian Generals would be counting on), the Ukrainians would not dare do their crossing until they got the superiority of position. As such, they couldn't lay their bridges fast enough to catch the Russians running. The collapse was oppertunistic. I did state the Ukrainians created the conditions for it but they were certainly not counting on it.
                Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 02 Oct 22,, 00:25.
                Chimo

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                • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                  Oh come on Eric, there's no way in hell a wheeled SPG got anything over a tracked one.
                  I would think the advantage is in the gun, ammo and the FCS, no?

                  Surely there's a reason why wheeled fighting vehicles are still designed and built? For starters a wheeled vehicle is lighter and can go places that a heavier tracked vehicle cannot, such as across less robust bridges etc. and get there faster.

                  I mean, you could try to make the same claim about HIMARS vs M270 but the Ukrainians seem to have done just fine with a wheeled MLRS



                  “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

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                  • So what next after Lyman, do the Ukranians maybe go east to Severodonetsk ? Or south in the direction of Mariupol (although that seems like a greater distance to cover).

                    Or perhaps we are now looking at an operational pause until the spring.

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                    • Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
                      I would think the advantage is in the gun, ammo and the FCS, no?

                      Surely there's a reason why wheeled fighting vehicles are still designed and built? For starters a wheeled vehicle is lighter and can go places that a heavier tracked vehicle cannot, such as across less robust bridges etc. and get there faster.

                      I mean, you could try to make the same claim about HIMARS vs M270 but the Ukrainians seem to have done just fine with a wheeled MLRS
                      HIMARS is a MRLS which is a completely different system. If you want to comment on tech differences, it would ne KUTUSHA rockets vs HIMARS. For the CAESAR, it's a compromise between towed tubes and tracked SPGs with the disadvtantages of both and advantages of neither. Wheeled SPGs do not have an advantage over towed tubes in setup but far more limited in ammo storage and rate of fire while tracked guns have faster setups and take downs and have a bigger ammo storage due to bigger engines.

                      Where systems like CAESAR shine over gun tubes is in airborne operations but frankly 120mm mortars can do the job just as well. What 120mm mortars can't do, areial artillery (hey, airborne operation here) can well surpass. The Ukrainians used the CAESAR because it's better than nothing but the RCHA, Royal Artillery, and the USMC pass on truck mounted artillery for a reason. Towed tubes are much better.
                      Chimo

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                      • Originally posted by InExile View Post
                        So what next after Lyman, do the Ukranians maybe go east to Severodonetsk ? Or south in the direction of Mariupol (although that seems like a greater distance to cover).

                        Or perhaps we are now looking at an operational pause until the spring.
                        The next fight will likely be around Svatove. It is a major supply & transport hub. Moving on Severodonetsk with Svatove in Russian hands would be risky. At some point the weather will intervene, probably too soon to make major inroads into Luhansk.
                        sigpic

                        Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C

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                        • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                          HIMARS is a MRLS which is a completely different system. If you want to comment on tech differences, it would ne KUTUSHA rockets vs HIMARS. For the CAESAR, it's a compromise between towed tubes and tracked SPGs with the disadvtantages of both and advantages of neither. Wheeled SPGs do not have an advantage over towed tubes in setup but far more limited in ammo storage and rate of fire while tracked guns have faster setups and take downs and have a bigger ammo storage due to bigger engines.

                          Where systems like CAESAR shine over gun tubes is in airborne operations but frankly 120mm mortars can do the job just as well. What 120mm mortars can't do, areial artillery (hey, airborne operation here) can well surpass. The Ukrainians used the CAESAR because it's better than nothing but the RCHA, Royal Artillery, and the USMC pass on truck mounted artillery for a reason. Towed tubes are much better.
                          A quick search says that a CAESAR can set up or take down in 60 seconds. That's on par with an M109A7

                          Within 2 minutes CAESAR can set up, pop off 6 rounds, take down and be gone, barreling down a road at maximum of 90 km/h.

                          And I'm willing to bet that CAESAR's FCS is just as good than anything the Russians have.
                          “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

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                          • M109A6 can setup and fire within 30 seconds, 36 rounds, max 4 rounds per minute, lower pressure per square inch trackson, vs 18 rounds for the CAESAR. Higher ROF, ammo load, faster setup, AND armour, not to mention cross country capability. Given the choice between CAESAR and M109A6, M109A6 wins every time. Hell given a choice between M777 with vehicle and CAESAR, I'll take the M777 each and everytime.

                            CAESAR is a very niche vehicle and it covers that niche very well but frankly that niche is better covered by a combination of heavy mortars and aerial artillery.
                            Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 02 Oct 22,, 04:33.
                            Chimo

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                            • I remember being told previously on this thread that tactical nuclear weapons did not exist or were little different from strategic nukes in terms of fallout.

                              However, this article in the Washington Post claims that the smallest nuclear weapon in the Russian arsenal is 1 kiloton. This is ten times less powerful than the Hiroshima bomb, perhaps something that might be used on a battlefield while minimizing the overall fallout.

                              https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...clear-threats/

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                              • At 1kt, it's a gun type nuke and all it's reliability problems (sometimes it works. At 1kt, there's a lot less fizzle material meaning alot more times, it won't work). At that point, thermobarics and HEs are better weapons with far more reliability and far cheaper, meaning you could do more reliable damage with less money.
                                Chimo

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