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  • Originally posted by Ironduke View Post
    HARMs can hit parts of northern Crimea from the Kherson direction.
    The Ukrainians have not made it convenient for the Russians to place juicy targets within reach.

    Chimo

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    • Originally posted by Monash View Post
      Unless of course there was a series of unfortunate accidents in certain Russian munition plants. These things do happen.
      Too little, too early. The Russians stockpiled their munitions at the front lines and are holding their own. The pontoon ferries are meeting needs and their mobility denies MRLS a static target. The Ukrainian counter-offensive has already lost momentum. It's a slugfest now and numbers will determine the victor.

      The bridges and depots should have been hit simultaneously with the counter-offensive launched right away. Giving time for the Russians to set up pontoon ferries was a strategic mistake, a big one. The line officers have the confidence that they will not run out of munitions and that gave them the confidence to blunt the Ukrainians.

      Whatever you want to say about hurting the Russians, they did not panic and THAT should tell you something. A propaganda victory is no replacement for a military victory.
      Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 21 Aug 22,, 01:16.
      Chimo

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      • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
        Until we give the Ukrainians the weapons they need to hit Crimea, that's the same thing not allowing them to hit Crimea with our weapons. The suits can blabber all they want but we have given them zero abilities to do so.

        You did notice that we have not given any of our state of the art tiger force systems. We've given them old T-72s/LEO 1s/M113s while LEO IIs/ABRAMS/LAV IIIs/COYOTEs/BRADLEYs are sitting in storage and in some cases (LAV IIIs and COYOTES) being decommissioned. I mean we have given the Iraqis ABRAMs.

        We have not given the Ukrainians anything that can decide a battle, let alone hit Crimea.
        We have given them what they are familiar with and has the infrastructure to sustain. I have been through The Bradley &Abrams fielding. It shut our brigade for 9 months.

        nIt is not plug and play for those systems. The Ukrainians areal used to 3 man crews with an auto loader. All western tanks need a 4 man crew with a human being the loafer. A huge knowledge and training gap.
        “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
        Mark Twain

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        • This from a country who introduced new fighter planes, tanks, artillery, and aircraft carriers in the middle of a war ... and what's more forced her allies (the payment plans were way too good ... and we begged) to accept your new machines and stop using our old ones.
          Chimo

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
            Too little, too early. The Russians stockpiled their munitions at the front lines and are holding their own. The pontoon ferries are meeting needs and their mobility denies MRLS a static target. The Ukrainian counter-offensive has already lost momentum. It's a slugfest now and numbers will determine the victor.

            The bridges and depots should have been hit simultaneously with the counter-offensive launched right away. Giving time for the Russians to set up pontoon ferries was a strategic mistake, a big one. The line officers have the confidence that they will not run out of munitions and that gave them the confidence to blunt the Ukrainians.

            Whatever you want to say about hurting the Russians, they did not panic and THAT should tell you something. A propaganda victory is no replacement for a military victory.
            Actually I seem to recall seeing a brief news clip reporting that a Russian munitions plant did actually suffer severe damage due to an 'accident' a day or so ago. As for the rest ? It looks likely to remain a grind, and albeit they have deep (conventional)munitions reserves Russia's manpower reserves aren't as big as Ukraine's until or unless a general mobilization is ordered. And even then I question how long it would take the army to train-up, equip and move the number of men required. Not saying they couldn't do it just that they're not going to be able to do it in anywhere near as quickly as the prewar planning documents for a GM would indicate. And meanwhile the economy is increasingly being crippled by sanctions. So a grind there to.
            If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

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            • Originally posted by Monash View Post
              Actually I seem to recall seeing a brief news clip reporting that a Russian munitions plant did actually suffer severe damage due to an 'accident' a day or so ago.
              And still no panic.

              Originally posted by Monash View Post
              As for the rest ? It looks likely to remain a grind,
              I don't want to see a grind. I want to see a collapse; to break the enemy's will, to cause panic in his rear. A grind plays to Russia's advantage. It eats into the manpower that Kiev needs to rebuild with. Kiev cannot afford to lose a generation of men.

              Originally posted by Monash View Post
              and albeit they have deep (conventional)munitions reserves Russia's manpower reserves aren't as big as Ukraine's until or unless a general mobilization is ordered.
              Manpower vs firepower. It would be an extremely Pyrrhic victory, one that would hurt the Ukrainians a lot more than it would hurt the Russians.

              Originally posted by Monash View Post
              And even then I question how long it would take the army to train-up, equip and move the number of men required. Not saying they couldn't do it just that they're not going to be able to do it in anywhere near as quickly as the prewar planning documents for a GM would indicate.
              Does it matter? You see Putin taking his sweet time to build an overwhelming force and one you have no hope of stopping.

              Originally posted by Monash View Post
              And meanwhile the economy is increasingly being crippled by sanctions. So a grind there to.
              Kiev is hurting there too, much, much, much more than the Russians.

              Thank God Putin is an ego maniac and not a strategist. The smart play is to withdraw the Russian Army and rebuild it. The Ukrainians cannot build another army. Those military donations from the West will dry up real fast as we look to replenish our stocks. We'll cut some deals but Kiev would be expected to pay her fair share and she won't have the money. Russia's economy is expected to shrink 20% at max. Kiev is expected to shrink 40%. Nobody is sending out final demands just yet, nor even the invoice because we're all supporting the Ukrainians but those bills will come due once the fighting stops.

              Chimo

              Comment


              • "...The smart play is to withdraw the Russian Army and rebuild it. The Ukrainians cannot build another army. Those military donations from the West will dry up real fast as we look to replenish our stocks..."

                We can only hope. I suspect you're entirely wrong about Ukraine building another army. I'm sure logisticians in Ukraine and elsewhere would love to 1.) breathe, 2.) reassess and rationalize weapon systems and 3.) begin acquiring, re-organizing and training on those systems they'll be using to fight the next war.

                Ukraine will quite likely be the poster child of a vibrant re-birth of the E.U. and its relevancy to emerging eastern democracies. Europe and the U.S. are far more likely to afford favorable terms to assist the rebuild and modernization of Ukraine's infrastructure while underwriting the organizational and material re-structuring of Ukraine's national defense. Ukraine will be a (more than ever) viable candidate for admission into NATO.

                This is Russia's best chance...RIGHT NOW. It won't get better. Sanctions won't just "disappear" were they to withdraw (where? Pre-2/24/22? Pre-2014?). Were Russia to declare full mobilization today, they'd be utterly unable to equip and train a modern army. They couldn't properly equip, organize and train the forces deployed fresh in 2/24/22. Re-equipping and augmenting exhausted forces has revealed no magical resuscitation powers within the Russian military apparatus. Fresh, well-trained and equipped modern tank and combined arms armies, therefore, are not looming just over the horizon.

                Meanwhile, full mobilization runs the very real risk of openly declaring the "emperor is naked". The Rodina doesn't appear threatened to citizens of St. Petersburg and Moscow. It is commonly recognized among Russia's intelligentsia as a military adventure with no virtue attached whatsoever. Meanwhile, enthusiasm for this adventure is notably lacking already if one judges the success Russian oblasts outside Moscow/St. Petersburg have achieved recruiting "volunteer" BTGs. Nil.

                My bet is firmly with Ukraine rebuilding with better forces before Russia if only the Russians will be so accommodating to withdraw from Ukraine. Russia will have to grow a VERY large and capable army to achieve any lasting grand Euro ambitions given a very hard front now extending from the Black Sea to the Baltic.
                "This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski
                "The only true currency in this bankrupt world is what you share with someone else when you're uncool." Lester Bangs

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                • The irony here is that I recall some months ago I advocated for a faster Ukrainian counterattack. It seems the Ukrainians actually agreed with our good Colonel about the length of time needed to constitute an effective offensive.

                  Looks to me like the Ukrainians think that in the short term, at least, they only got one good shot at this so they better not eff it up.

                  Long term, I have every confidence that a Ukraine armed with modern weapons and even more importantly, something closer to NATO caliber training, can stand off whatever rebuilt Russian army Putin or his successors may field.

                  Provided, of course, that Ukraine wins the current war.
                  Last edited by astralis; 21 Aug 22,, 17:47.
                  There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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                  • I don't share the same enthusiasm about Ukrainian future. They had more than six years to get their house in order and they're still nowhere close to NATO membership material. I have zero doubts that future NATO-Ukranian Armed Forces co-operations will produce a meaner/leaner Ukrainian military but I do have big doubts that political and judicial practices will come anywhere close to acceptable for NATO membership. Look for Ukrainian concrete prices to be 3x that the rest of Europe ... and come on, Russian gas is still flowing through Ukraine. Zelensky himself is no better than any politician before him. Undeserved patronage was and is rampant in his administration. Gen Ruslan Khomchak was fired because he can't stand Zelensky's cronies in the MOD. He appointed incompetents Ivan Bakanov and Iryna Venediktova to their posts. I don't see a politically stronger Zelensky is going to change his ways.

                    This being said, my definition of "peace" is when the shooting stops. I don't care where the lines are when the shooting stops because there will be a round 3. There is zero doubts in my mind that Putin's allies (China, Iran, India, North Korea) can rearm him 2 times faster than we can re-arm Ukraine. We simply cannot and in fact, will not, do another Israel. And the Russian Army is not the Arab Armies. There is also a matter of a competent Ukrainian General Staff. Right now, it seems propaganda victories are far more important than military victories. Hooray, Crimea is hit. Bridges are rendered useless. HIMARS! HIMARS! HIMARS! In the meantimes, the much propaganderized counter-offensive ground to a halt. We need to get their Captains/Majs/LCols into our schools ASAP. But as Buck said, this ain't an overnight thing and I don't think we can graduate a class before Round 3.
                    Chimo

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                    • Does this mean that I think Putin will win round 3? No. Too many unknowns and I won't make such predictions until I can see the ground before the war. What this does mean, however, is that the threat is not gone once the shooting stops and it would be a very real lethal threat to Kiev and it would be prudent not to assume Zelensky will win round 3. After all, this is the idiot who said the Russians wouldn't invade when we were screaming for Months the Russians are coming.
                      Chimo

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                      • obviously whatever round 3 looks like will be determined by how round 2 is finished out.

                        regarding Ukrainian operations, they've tactically adapted well and most importantly, have prevented Putin from achieving any of his strategic goals (he has, what, 0.5 out of 4 -- seizing Luhansk, seizing Donetsk, seizing entire southern coastline, regime change in Kyiv).

                        moreover, we simply don't know if the Ukrainians are gonna start a broader counteroffensive soon, or if as you say what we see is all we're gonna get for this year and that it's been ground down already.

                        in any case, I said earlier that we're just at the beginning of ramping the Ukrainians up the technical/training spectrum.
                        There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by astralis View Post
                          obviously whatever round 3 looks like will be determined by how round 2 is finished out.
                          The fronts of round 3 most certainly but not the prep work for round 3.

                          Originally posted by astralis View Post
                          regarding Ukrainian operations, they've tactically adapted well and most importantly, have prevented Putin from achieving any of his strategic goals (he has, what, 0.5 out of 4 -- seizing Luhansk, seizing Donetsk, seizing entire southern coastline, regime change in Kyiv).
                          The danger here is that both sides might try to refight the last war, ie round 2 and that is a loser proposition. The Ukrainians didn't try to refight round 1. The Russians did. Hence the result.
                          Chimo

                          Comment


                          • This from a country who introduced new fighter planes, tanks, artillery, and aircraft carriers in the middle of a war ... and what's more forced her allies (the payment plans were way too good ... and we begged) to accept your new machines and stop using our old ones.
                            I certainly agree that some of this is exaggerated -- rather, we're using a technical excuse because some folks are scared of the potential for escalation. as we've seen now, what was impossible a few months ago is now....possible. though I'm not betting on the UAF flying F-16s and A-10s anytime soon.

                            of course once the shooting stops, the escalation constraints go away (though of course other, lesser constraints come into play, like "the war is over, why are we spending money on Ukraine now?").

                            bottom-line is that the stock prices for Western arms manufacturers are gonna continue going up for the foreseeable future.

                            The danger here is that both sides might try to refight the last war, ie round 2 and that is a loser proposition. The Ukrainians didn't try to refight round 1. The Russians did. Hence the result.
                            can you flesh this out a little bit more. I think I see some good insight here but need it spelled out for me.
                            There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by astralis View Post
                              can you flesh this out a little bit more. I think I see some good insight here but need it spelled out for me.
                              You would know it as Victory Disease. Always thinking the enemy is too stupid to counter your military arrogance. That is you can repeat your victory over and over and the enemy will make the same mistakes over and over. The Russians won the 2014 War. They expected the Ukrainians to fight in the exact same manner as in 2014. That when the Ukrainians are being outmaneuvered, they will break and run for it. Thus, they had no answer when the Ukrainians decided to hold the ground to the last man, thus forcing the Russians to gain their ground with their last man. Something they were not prepared to do..

                              The point here is that for Round 3, both sides would be tempted to repeat what worked for them this round, not thinking the other guy may try something different since clearly what they did the last time didn't worked
                              Chimo

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                                You would know it as Victory Disease. Always thinking the enemy is too stupid to counter your military arrogance. That is you can repeat your victory over and over and the enemy will make the same mistakes over and over. The Russians won the 2014 War. They expected the Ukrainians to fight in the exact same manner as in 2014. That when the Ukrainians are being outmaneuvered, they will break and run for it. Thus, they had no answer when the Ukrainians decided to hold the ground to the last man, thus forcing the Russians to gain their ground with their last man. Something they were not prepared to do..

                                The point here is that for Round 3, both sides would be tempted to repeat what worked for them this round, not thinking the other guy may try something different since clearly what they did the last time didn't worked
                                Just to expand on this.. the thing I don't understand is Russia is next door to Ukraine, Putin has gone on and on about the historical ties and culture that the two hold, how could he miscalculate so badly that the majority of the population, including the government, wouldn't fold like a cheap tent and switch sides to the Russians? This isn't some country on the other side of the world that you hardly know. And I think its apparent he thought that. They hardly used artillery in the first phase of the occupation, perhaps in an attempt to preserve the infrastructure of the country because of the belief that the invasion 'should' be over in a matter of days/weeks. The Ukraine population mobilized to fight to the death. Even many Russian-speaking Ukrainians are on the Kiev side. How could you not recognize that before giving the order to invade?

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