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  • #31
    U.S. discussing military deployment near Ukraine with NATO allies
    The United States is discussing the deployment of American military forces to Eastern Europe with its NATO allies, a senior administration official said Monday, as President Joe Biden weighs options for responding to Russian threats against Ukraine.

    With Moscow massing more than 100,000 troops at its neighbor's border and no diplomatic breakthrough in sight, the West is stepping up its response amid mounting fears an invasion could be imminent.

    Conversations are underway with NATO countries that could receive U.S. military forces as part of a plan to deter Russian President Vladimir Putin’s aggression, the official said.

    NATO said Monday that it was sending ships and fighter jets to Eastern Europe and that Washington “has also made clear that it is considering increasing its military presence in the eastern part of the Alliance.”

    The White House said Biden plans to speak by video conference to European leaders in the afternoon about Russia's military buildup on Ukraine's border, including with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson, Polish President Andrzej Duda, French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi.

    Biden was briefed by Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Saturday about U.S. options for responding if Russia invades Ukraine, as well as options for U.S. military movements in advance of an invasion, according to a defense official and a senior administration official.

    Among the options presented for the U.S. military in advance of an invasion were bomber flights over the region, ship visits into the Black Sea and the moving of troops and some equipment from other parts of Europe into Poland, Romania and other countries neighboring Ukraine.

    Austin presented options to reassure NATO allies and reinforce their defenses, specifically the defenses of those countries bordering Ukraine, the officials said. The goal is to show unity and strength within NATO and deter Russian aggression against allies in the region, the officials said.

    Biden was at the presidential retreat at Camp David, Maryland, and Austin briefed him via a secure video teleconference. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Mark Milley, was on the call. Generally the secretary briefs the president and then the chairman provides more operational specifics.

    Some details of the briefing were previously reported by The New York Times.

    Russia has repeatedly denied planning to invade and has blamed the West for stoking tensions.

    “All this is happening not because of what we, Russia, are doing. This is happening because of what NATO, the U.S. are doing,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said during a conference call with reporters on Monday.

    As Biden weighed his options, the State Department ordered family members of embassy employees in Kyiv to leave Sunday and authorized nonemergency diplomatic employees in Ukraine to depart. It also warned Americans not to travel to Ukraine or Russia, citing the possibility of Russian military action.

    Ukraine criticized the move to withdraw diplomats’ families as “premature,” while U.S. allies were split on whether to immediately follow America's lead, with the U.K. doing so but the European Union saying it would not for now.

    The briefing for Biden included the latest intelligence that the Russian military has not stopped building up forces around Ukraine, the officials said.

    Another defense official said Putin continues to add more military units and flow forces to the border areas around Ukraine. “He’s getting stronger, literally by the day,” the defense official said.

    The officials would not say whether Biden approved any movements. The senior administration official did say some troops and assets could be repositioned “in the coming days.”

    Air Force Gen. Tod Wolters, the commander of U.S. European Command and supreme allied commander Europe, has been preparing options for weeks, the defense official and the senior administration official said. Wolters has the authority to move some forces around his theater, but he is keeping Austin and military leaders informed given the gravity of the situation, the officials said.

    Meanwhile, NATO said early Monday that it was putting extra forces on standby and sending more ships and fighter jets to the region, including beefing up its “deterrence” presence in the Baltic Sea.

    “NATO will continue to take all necessary measures to protect and defend all Allies, including by reinforcing the eastern part of the Alliance. We will always respond to any deterioration of our security environment, including through strengthening our collective defense,” Stoltenberg said.

    Also Monday, the U.S. military and NATO begin Exercise Neptune Strike ’22 , which includes training with NATO allies for capabilities that could be used against Russia. As part of the exercise, the USS Harry S. Truman carrier strike group will conduct long-range strike training and anti-submarine warfare training from the Mediterranean.

    Pentagon press secretary John Kirby said the exercise is “designed to demonstrate NATO’s ability to integrate the high-end maritime strike capabilities of an aircraft carrier strike group, to support the deterrence and defense of the alliance.”
    ___________

    "This business will get out of control. It will get out of control and we'll be lucky to live through it."
    Supporting or defending Donald Trump is such an unforgivable moral failing that it calls every bit of your judgement and character into question. Nothing about you should be trusted if you can look at this man and find redeemable value

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    • #32
      Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
      Somebody correct me if I'm wrong, but no matter what equipment that the West sends to Ukraine, the Ukrainian armed forces have no answer to Russian airpower, cyber & electronic warfare and artillery.

      I mean, what good are ATGMs if Russian tube artillery is hurling a typhoon of 152mm shells into their trench lines?

      Am I way off base here?

      Actually Ukraine has a very robust artillery & rocket branch...they can give as well as they get. And they've recently been supplied with anti-drone rifles so that should help.

      I think Ukraine is getting some under the table assistance from the Baltics on cyber.

      https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidax...h=4192ca1d4ca2


      If Open War Breaks Out In Ukraine, Watch The Big Guns On Both Sides



      David Axe
      Forbes Staff
      Aerospace & Defense

      The war in Ukraine is, more than anything, an artillery war.

      That’s been true since early 2014, when Russian troops first seized Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula and then backed anti-government separatists in Ukraine’s Donbas region. It surely will be even more true if, as many observers fear, Russia openly invades Ukraine in the coming weeks or months.

      It makes sense that both sides, the Ukrainians and Russians, would emphasize what military practitioners call “fires”—that is, the concentration and exchange of heavy artillery. After all, both armies still adhere to Soviet doctrine, which organizes ground forces around their mortars, cannons and rockets.

      In Soviet doctrine, infantry and tanks exist to help artillery get into position—and to isolate enemy forces so the guns can destroy them.


      If Russia invades and open war breaks out, watch the guns. The march of Russian artillery across Ukraine, and efforts by Ukrainian artillery to halt the Russians’ progress, might signal the eventual winner.

      Examples abound of Russian guns successfully targeting Ukrainian troops in Donbas starting in 2014.

      In early July that year, three powerful Ukrainian army formations assembled near Zelenopillya, just a few miles from the Russian border, in preparation for an attack on rebel-held Luhansk.

      Russian drones spied on the camp. The Ukrainians managed to shoot down one Orlan-10 drone, but could not stop the Russians from pinpointing their location. On the morning of July 11, Russian forces hacked the Ukrainian command post’s network and jammed its radios, isolating and confusing the officers in charge.

      Russian rocket batteries deployed near the town of Rovenky on the Russian side of the border rained destruction on the Ukrainian camp. Thirty soldiers died along with six border guards and their commander. Two battalions worth of vehicles and equipment burned.


      Ukraine’s artillery notched its own victories. Belarusian sources have described the key role Ukrainian guns played in the bitter fighting over the town of Debaltseve in the spring 0f 2015.

      What might happen in 2021 and 2022, if Russian and Ukrainian armies directly clash, is anyone’s guess. But it’s worth noting the efforts both armies have made to improve their artillery.

      The Russian army since 2014 has greatly modernized its artillery—in particular by fielding small unmanned aerial vehicles that can help spot targets for the guns. “The Russians have mastered integrating a network of UAVs, forward observers and fire direction centers directly with rocket and cannon batteries,” U.S. Army Col. Liam Collins and Capt. Harrison Morgan noted in a 2019 article.

      If you see an Orlan-10 drone buzzing overhead, it’s a safe bet the Russians’ guns are dialing in.

      The Ukrainians, meanwhile, have struggled to produce new shells and rockets, meaning the guns and launchers—for all their effectiveness—might simply run out of ammunition in an intensive campaign.

      But Kiev’s planners have had better luck refreshing the army’s “counterbattery” capabilities. Counterbattery is the practice of responding to the enemy’s artillery—by firing your own guns at their guns. If your enemy is counting on fires to lead its offensive, suppressing those fires might be the key to a successful defense.

      The trick is to detect incoming artillery fire and trace the shells’ paths back to their guns. In modern armies, this task falls to counterbattery radars. The Russians long have fielded a wide array of tracked counterbattery radars such as the SNAR-10 and Zoopark-1.

      The Ukrainians possess some of the same systems—and are adding new ones. Indeed, acquiring new counterbattery systems is one of the Ukrainian defense industry’s top equipment priorities, alongside rocket-launchers and new anti-ship missiles.

      In 2015, the United States donated to Ukraine two Q-36 counterbattery radars. And this year Kiev’s army received the first of the new locally-made Zoopark-3s.

      The proliferation of guns and counterbattery systems in and around eastern Ukraine can make for some ... interesting engagements. In one highly recursive exchange of fires two years ago, a Russian Zoopark-1 was helping separatist guns target Ukrainian guns when the Ukrainians turned the tables and targeted the Zoopark-1.

      Countercounterbattery, if you will. And a possible preview of the possible war to come.Z
      “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
      Mark Twain

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      • #33
        This kind of a big deal....this version of M1 is truly the latest and greatest.

        I see Poland becoming in this decade what the German Bundeswehr was in the 1980s...the most powerful armed forces in NATO after the Americans.


        https://www.defensenews.com/congress...ale-to-poland/


        Lawmakers ask Austin to rush Abrams sale to Poland

        By Joe Gould
        Jan 24, 12:00 PM
        US Army

        The ranking members of the House Armed Services Committee, Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Ala., and the House Intelligence Committee, Rep. Mike Turner, R-Ohio, with Rep. Lisa McClain, R-Mich., argue expediting the sale, “especially as Russia builds-up forces around Ukraine, would send an important message to both NATO and the Kremlin.”

        “Further, helping to equip Poland with the M1A2 tank would serve to displace Soviet-era equipment in the Polish force structure, and thus enhance interoperability with U.S. and NATO forces, while simultaneously strengthening the U.S. industrial base,” the lawmakers wrote.

        Both Poland and Abrams-maker General Dynamics, of Reston, Va., have said they expect the first delivery of the tanks in 2022. After meeting with Austin in October, Polish Defence Minister Mariusz Błaszczak said Austin thought “equipping the Polish Army with Abrams tanks is absolutely justified as it builds interoperability between American and Polish forces.”

        “Everything indicates that the first Abrams tanks will be used by the Polish Army next year,” Błaszczak said at the time.

        The Defense Security Cooperation Agency has yet to notify Congress the sale has been approved.

        Poland, whose brigades are currently equipped with Leopard 2A4 and Leopard 2A5 tanks, is seeking to replace the Soviet-designed T-72 and PT-91 tanks, to counter the most modern Russian T-14 Armata tanks.


        The letter comes as tensions soar between Russia and the West over concerns Moscow is planning to invade Ukraine, with NATO outlining potential troop and ship deployments.

        Russia has massed an estimated 100,000 troops near Ukraine’s border, demanding NATO promise it will never allow Ukraine to join and that other actions, such as stationing alliance troops in former Soviet bloc countries, be curtailed. Some of these, like any pledge to permanently bar Ukraine, are nonstarters for NATO — creating a seemingly intractable deadlock many fear can only end in war.

        President Joe Biden said last week the U.S. would, in light of NATO’s mutual-defense commitments, boost its troop presence in eastern NATO members like Poland and Romania, if Russia sends more forces into Ukraine.

        Stacie Pettyjohn, director of the defense program at the Center for a New American Security, said it’s unlikely the tank sale could be expedited in time to stop a Russian invasion of Ukraine, but providing Poland with the tanks makes sense strategically, to bolster NATO’s defenses in the north.

        In a conflict, it’s unlikely Poland would deploy its heavy forces to Ukraine or Belarus, but improving Poland’s ability to defend itself could blunt a potential avenue of attack for Russia. And those maneuverable, protected forces would have a better chance of standing up to Russian artillery.

        “If they’re thinking of defending their country and up through the Baltics, being able to maneuver and having heavy forces to interpose themselves between Russian ones, would slow [the Russian forces] down and then let NATO bring its air power in to begin to begin to attrit them,” Pettyjohn said.
        “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
        Mark Twain

        Comment


        • #34
          Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
          Somebody correct me if I'm wrong, but no matter what equipment that the West sends to Ukraine, the Ukrainian armed forces have no answer to Russian airpower, cyber & electronic warfare and artillery.

          I mean, what good are ATGMs if Russian tube artillery is hurling a typhoon of 152mm shells into their trench lines?

          Am I way off base here?
          I think it's universally accepted that the Ukrainian army would be absolutely dismantled in a conventional fight against Russian combined arms. Although I am interested to hear from the Col. and others views on how capable the Ukrainian military will be with conducting a prolonged insurgency campaign.
          "Draft beer, not people."

          Comment


          • #35
            Originally posted by Albany Rifles View Post


            Actually Ukraine has a very robust artillery & rocket branch...they can give as well as they get. And they've recently been supplied with anti-drone rifles so that should help.

            I think Ukraine is getting some under the table assistance from the Baltics on cyber.

            https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidax...h=4192ca1d4ca2
            I don't doubt that Ukraine has drastically improved their capabilities and that Russia will get one hell of a bloody nose if they invade, but it just seems like they'll still get run over by overwhelming numbers and capability.
            Originally posted by Red Team View Post

            I think it's universally accepted that the Ukrainian army would be absolutely dismantled in a conventional fight against Russian combined arms. Although I am interested to hear from the Col. and others views on how capable the Ukrainian military will be with conducting a prolonged insurgency campaign.
            I'm curious about that too. Russia's operations and subsequent annexation of Crimea was certainly impressive but Ukraine (and her neighbors) have certainly learned their lessons. But...man are they outgunned
            Supporting or defending Donald Trump is such an unforgivable moral failing that it calls every bit of your judgement and character into question. Nothing about you should be trusted if you can look at this man and find redeemable value

            Comment


            • #36
              US puts 8,500 troops on heightened alert amid Russia tension
              WASHINGTON (AP) — At President Biden's direction, the Pentagon is putting about 8,500 U.S.-based troops on heightened alert for potential deployment to Europe amid rising fears of a possible Russian military move on Ukraine.

              Pentagon press secretary John Kirby said Monday no final decisions had been made on deployments, which he said would happen only if the NATO alliance decides to activate a rapid-response force “or if other situations develop” in connection with tensions over Russia's military buildup along Ukraine's borders.

              “What this is about is reassurance to our NATO allies," Kirby said, adding that no troops are intended for deployment to Ukraine itself.

              Kirby said Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin recommended to Biden that up to 8,500 troops be ordered to prepare for potential deployment to Europe in light of signs that Russian President Vladimir Putin is not de-escalating his military pressure on Ukraine. Kirby said he was not prepared to identify the U.S.-based units because they were still being notified.

              “We’ve always said we would reinforce our allies on the eastern flank, and those conversations and discussions have certainly been part of what our national security officials have been discussing with their counterparts now for several weeks,” said White House press secretary Jen Psaki.

              Later Monday, Biden was to hold a video call with several European leaders on the Russian military buildup and potential responses to an invasion, the White House said.

              The Pentagon's move comes as tensions have soared between Russia and the West over concerns that Moscow is planning to invade Ukraine, with NATO outlining potential troop and ship deployments, Britain saying it would withdraw some diplomats from Kyiv, and Ireland denouncing upcoming Russian war games off its coast.

              Prior to the U.S. announcement, the Western alliance’s statement summed up moves already described by member countries, but restating them under the NATO banner appeared aimed at showing resolve. The West is ramping up its rhetoric in the information war that has accompanied the Ukraine standoff.

              Russia has massed an estimated 100,000 troops near Ukraine’s border, demanding that NATO promise it will never allow Ukraine to join and that other actions, such as stationing alliance troops in former Soviet bloc countries, be curtailed. Some of these, like any pledge to permanently bar Ukraine, are nonstarters for NATO — creating a deadlock that many fear can only end in war.

              Russia denies it is planning an invasion, and says the Western accusations are merely a cover for NATO’s own planned provocations. Recent days have seen high-stakes diplomacy that failed to reach any breakthrough and maneuvering on both sides.

              NATO said Monday it is bolstering its “deterrence” in the Baltic Sea region. Denmark is sending a frigate and deploying F-16 warplanes to Lithuania; Spain is sending four fighter jets to Bulgaria and three ships to the Black Sea to join NATO naval forces; and France stands ready to send troops to Romania. The Netherlands also plans to send two F-35 fighter aircraft to Bulgaria from April.

              NATO will “take all necessary measures to protect and defend all allies,” Secretary-General jens Stoltenberg said. "We will always respond to any deterioration of our security environment, including through strengthening our collective defense.”

              In Moscow, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said it was NATO and the U.S. who were behind the escalating tensions, not Russia.

              “All this is happening not because of what we, Russia, are doing. This is happening because of what NATO, the U.S. are doing,” Peskov told reporters.

              The NATO announcement came as European Union foreign ministers sought to put on a fresh display of unity in support of Ukraine, and paper over concerns about divisions on the best way to confront any Russian aggression.

              In a statement, the ministers said the EU has stepped up sanction preparations and they warned that “any further military aggression by Russia against Ukraine will have massive consequences and severe costs.”

              Separately, the EU also committed to increase financial support for embattled Ukraine, vowing to push through a special package of 1.2 billion euros ($1.4 billion) in loans and grants as soon as possible.

              U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken held talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Friday and said the U.S. would give Russia written responses to Moscow’s proposals this week, offering some hope that any invasion could be delayed for at least a few more days.

              The West is nervously watching Russian troop movements and war games in Belarus for any signs of an invasion. Russia has already invaded Ukraine once, annexing the Crimean Peninsula in 2014. It also supported pro-Russian Ukrainian separatists fighting the Kyiv government in the country's eastern region known as the Donbass. About 14,000 people have been killed in the conflict.

              Asked whether the EU would follow a U.S. move and order the families of European embassy personnel in Ukraine to leave, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said: “We are not going to do the same thing.”

              Britain said it is withdrawing some diplomats and dependents from its Kyiv Embassy.

              British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said an invasion was not inevitable, but “the intelligence is pretty gloomy.” He added that "I think that sense can still prevail.”

              Ukraine's Foreign Ministry spokesman, Oleg Nikolenko, said the U.S. decision was “a premature step” and a sign of “excessive caution.” He said Russia is sowing panic among Ukrainians and foreigners in order to destabilize Ukraine.

              Germany has issued no similar order, with Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock stressing that “we must not contribute to unsettling the situation further."

              At the EU meeting, Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney said he would inform his counterparts about planned Russian war games 240 kilometers (150 miles) off southwestern Ireland — in international waters but within Ireland's exclusive economic zone.

              “This isn’t a time to increase military activity and tension in the context of what’s happening with and in Ukraine.” he said. “The fact that they are choosing to do it on the western borders, if you like, of the EU, off the Irish coast, is something that in our view is simply not welcome.”

              NATO members Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania said they plan to send U.S.-made anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine, a move endorsed by Washington.

              In talks with European allies throughout the crisis, administration officials said they have remained cognizant that Europe’s trade, energy and financial linkages with Russia are far more significant than they are for the U.S.

              Russia's brittle economy is overly reliant on energy exports. President Vladimir Putin has made clear his ambition to diversify the economy, particularly in sectors like defense and civil aviation, but the U.S. and European allies have a dominant position in producing and exporting the technologies, software and equipment crucial for Russia in those sectors.

              Throughout the talks, European officials have underscored having a “legitimate analysis and understanding of ... what will actually make Russia hurt” and what the “collateral costs” might be, according to a second senior administration official.

              ___

              Supporting or defending Donald Trump is such an unforgivable moral failing that it calls every bit of your judgement and character into question. Nothing about you should be trusted if you can look at this man and find redeemable value

              Comment


              • #37
                I have a very low view of the Ukranian military. Ok, the high tech stuff they have an excuse for but there is absolutely no reason why shovel and concrete have not been used to their fullest extent. The Ukranians had over 6 years to prepare. There is ONE fortified trench in the south. There should be at least 3. The Soviets built up Kursk against three German armies in 6 months. The UKR had over a year since last uproar and not one single AT minefield had been laid. Not one single KZ has been set out.

                There is zero doubt in my mind that the UKR is extremely capable of repelling the Russians. All it takes is a will which they are lacking. The Iraqis did a better job in Kuwait than the Ukrainians are doing now. Why the Iraqis failed is that they did not obey the Soviet tenet that as soon as the Americans hit your lines, rush forward. It's not like the Ukrainians are lacking in military expertise. They have senior leadership that came out of the same Soviet military academies as the Russians.

                The Ukrainians should have absolute confidence that they can repel the Russians. The fact that they don't says more of their unwillingness than of their incapabilities.

                There is something else being ignored. This is NOT about Moscow against Kiev as much as Kiev supporters like to pretend otherwise. This is about Russian speaking Ukrainians vs Ukraninian speaking Ukrainians. This is brother against brother and it's the damndest ugliest kind of war. It takes a lot to get family to bloodlust for each other and once that hate sets in, pride and ego is the only thing keeping a man from going insane about killing his own brother. Pride and ego is the only thing stopping you from killing your own kids after you killed your brother.

                So, to answer your question, how capable are the Ukrainians in conducting a proloinged insurgency. Very capable. Just as capable as the Ukrainians are in suppressing it.
                Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 24 Jan 22,, 22:20.
                Chimo

                Comment


                • #38
                  Like even now, I would be digging AT trenches like crazy. Yes, the Ukrainians don't have enough ATGMs but they've got recoiless rifles up the ying-yang. I would be entrenching brigades along the invasion routes (with proper fall back positions). I would expect my positions to be over-run but also I would keep a tiger force well hidden to attack Russian LOCs once the main force moved past me.

                  In short, I would be getting damned ready and I would be absolutely confident that I can carry out the mission I set out before me. I've got an entrenched brigade. I could at least meet a Russian division head on.

                  Are the Russians ready to move in 5 days? No? You know how many AT trenches I can did or how many minefields I can set up. Hell, do you even know how many KZs and ambush points can be set up by that time? And what the hell have Kiev been doing all this time? Bellyaching. "We need NATO help." Bullshit! At the very least, set up the defences to make the Russians bleed and buy time.

                  Hell, the Ukranian Army is 170,000 strong and that's not counting the reserves. The Russians massed 100,000 on the border but only 60,000 are deployed and a good percentage of those are facing the DNR and LNR. Wake the fuck up. The Russians shifted their forces and Kiev didn't have time to shift forces around or to call up their reserves?

                  All this says to me that Kiev doesn't want to fight. They want NATO to do it for them.
                  Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 24 Jan 22,, 23:54.
                  Chimo

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                    Like even now, I would be digging AT trenches like crazy. Yes, the Ukrainians don't have enough ATGMs but they've got recoiless rifles up the ying-yang. I would be entrenching brigades along the invasion routes (with proper fall back positions). I would expect my positions to be over-run but also I would keep a tiger force well hidden to attack Russian LOCs once the main force moved past me.

                    In short, I would be getting damned ready and I would be absolutely confident that I can carry out the mission I set out before me. I've got an entrenched brigade. I could at least meet a Russian division head on.
                    Col.

                    Do you have sources on the present deployment of Ukrainian forces? I have found sources for Russian military buildups off the New York Times but I cannot find anything for Ukrainian positions other than the common knowledge deployments around the LNR/DNR region.

                    Regarding the lack of fixed positions, maybe this is a difference of doctrine? I found this article about "active defense" based in Soviet doctrine and how both the Ukrainians and Russians would be expected to use similar tactics. Would like to hear your thoughts on this.
                    Last edited by Red Team; 25 Jan 22,, 03:50.
                    "Draft beer, not people."

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      Originally posted by Red Team View Post
                      Do you have sources on the present deployment of Ukrainian forces? I have found sources for Russian military buildups off the New York Times but I cannot find anything for Ukrainian positions other than the common knowledge deployments around the LNR/DNR region.
                      That's because there isn't any Ukranian build up. Nothing is out of the ordinary for Dnipro, In east Ukrainian city, thoughts turn again to war | Reuters, HQ of the Ukrainian Operational Command East. The people in the HQ are thinking about war but doing absolutely nothing about it. Oh, I don't know, if not concrete, how about sandbags barriers? How about at least taping up the windows if not plywood boarding them outright. How about letting everyone know about where the shelters yet.

                      Or much better, MOVE THE DAMNED HQ INTO THE FIELD, you know where IT SUPPOSED TO BE?

                      Originally posted by Red Team View Post
                      Regarding the lack of fixed positions, maybe this is a difference of doctrine? I found this article about "active defense" based in Soviet doctrine and how both the Ukrainians and Russians would be expected to use similar tactics. Would like to hear your thoughts on this.
                      It's just another variation of the feigned retreat but the point about obstacles and minefields is not to stop the enemy but to channel them into KZs. Within this context, the Russians would be fighting to breach a minefield to discover a weakpoint that is not guarded and pour troops through only to find those troops wandered into a kill zone.

                      This works in both receiving an attack or a counter-attack. Russian engineers will setup minefields and artillery to channel a counter-attack into KZs.

                      And I know the Ukrainians have not been trained for this because we have not trained armoured warfare with them. But if you're caught in a KZ, your best chance for survival is to attack straight on. People are shooting at you and you've just got caught with your pants down. You don't have time to judge what's around you. Just step on the gas and go straight. It is muscle memory pure and simple and unless you've trained for these situations, you're not going to have the muscle memory to just step on the gas. You'll freeze in trying to figure out what to do.
                      Chimo

                      Comment


                      • #41
                        Buck,

                        "...I see Poland becoming in this decade what the German Bundeswehr was in the 1980s..."

                        Does that mean the Bundeswehr might become the East German Army of the 1980s? I wonder if Poland and it's Baltic neighbors increasingly wonder if, not unlike 1939, they see themselves between two carnivorous beasts. I wonder if Germany doesn't increasingly see itself in Russia's camp? The smell these days must seem similar to the reek oozing from the pores of French politicians and generals in 1940-defeatism.

                        At every turn. Not enough brave souls. Talk about a house of cards, all it took was an invasion eight years ago. Highly visible open theft. Not unlike Germans marching into the Rhineland. Weak but daring. Now...less weak, even more daring and, like lil' piggies, we go running to our straw and wood houses as the big, bad wolf shows he's more than willing to blow and burn.

                        Oh! Don't look over your shoulder. Ji is smiling and the ayatollahs are giggling.

                        We're laughable.
                        "This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski
                        "The only true currency in this bankrupt world is what you share with someone else when you're uncool." Lester Bangs

                        Comment


                        • #42
                          Originally posted by TopHatter View Post

                          I don't doubt that Ukraine has drastically improved their capabilities and that Russia will get one hell of a bloody nose if they invade, but it just seems like they'll still get run over by overwhelming numbers and capability.


                          I'm curious about that too. Russia's operations and subsequent annexation of Crimea was certainly impressive but Ukraine (and her neighbors) have certainly learned their lessons. But...man are they outgunned
                          Not going to argue that Russia has much larger military. But Ukraine will fight like hell and there are waveds of volunteers stepping up to be volunteer militia. Russia will take round 1...and then will spend every day drenched in blood after that.
                          “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
                          Mark Twain

                          Comment


                          • #43
                            Originally posted by kato View Post
                            Here's the variation from Germany from last month - signed by former Supreme Commander of the Bundeswehr (1991-1996) and head of the NATO Military Committee (1996-1999) four-star general Klaus Naumann as well as a bunch more generals and former german ambassadors (incl. to Russia and to NATO):

                            https://www.global-review.info/2021/...d-ambassadors/



                            Gen, Naumann was one of the guys in charge for the war against Yugoslavia, for some frame of reference. And yes, the above is mostly an implicit indictment of US policies with regard to Eastern Europe in the last 10-15 years.
                            Win-win situations must therefore be created to overcome the current blockade.
                            What's the blockade?

                            Comment


                            • #44
                              Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                              It's a non-event. UKR is nowhere being closed to NATO membership material. Corruption and the nasty independence movements in the DNR and LNR render any NATO application DOA.
                              “That position has changed to … it’s now about (Western) defense cooperation in Ukraine, which can amount to the same de facto outcome,” of NATO membership in Russia’s view,” Kofman said. “This is the red line. It is not just formal membership.”
                              https://www.stripes.com/theaters/eur...y-3592069.html

                              Has a timeline of how things developed over the course of the last year

                              Russian movements near the Ukrainian border since March have raised concerns among the U.S. and its NATO allies of a possible invasion. Russia annexed Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula in 2014, a claim the international community generally does not recognize. On Nov. 3, Russian President Vladimir Putin declared Crimea forever a part of Russia.

                              March 31 – U.S. European Command raises awareness level about a buildup of 100,000 Russian troops along the Ukrainian border and in Crimea along with naval forces in the Sea of Azov.

                              April 22 – Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announces that Russian troops will withdraw from positions along the Ukrainian border.

                              Oct. 6 – NATO orders eight Russian diplomats to leave Belgium by Nov. 1, saying they were undeclared intelligence officers.

                              Oct. 18 – Russia announces its plan to end diplomatic engagement with NATO by Nov. 1 and terminates the activities of the NATO office in Moscow.

                              Oct. 30 – The destroyer USS Porter enters the Black Sea on routine patrol and is joined by USS Mount Whitney on Nov. 4. The day before, U.S. 6th Fleet announced that the replenishment oiler USNS John Lenthall was en route to the Black Sea. Moscow calls NATO and U.S. activity in the Black Sea a provocation.

                              Nov. 1 – Commercial satellite images suggest a buildup of Russian troops near the eastern border of Ukraine. Russia denounces the images as “low quality” fakes. Ukraine initially denies the buildup but two days later complains that Russia has sent 90,000 troops near its border.

                              Nov. 2 – CIA Director William Burns meets with Russian Security Council chief Nikolai Patrushev, warning Moscow of consequences if it steps up military action against Ukraine.

                              Nov. 8 – Belarusian TV images show border guards escorting an estimated 1,000 people to the Polish border, further escalating tensions in a brewing migrant crisis. U.S. analysts suggest that the situation is being manipulated by Russia to divert attention from its actions near Ukraine. The Kremlin denies involvement.

                              Nov. 10 – U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken says Russia would be making a “serious mistake” in committing any new aggressions against Ukraine.
                              Last edited by Double Edge; 25 Jan 22,, 16:37.

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                              • #45
                                Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                                Like even now, I would be digging AT trenches like crazy. Yes, the Ukrainians don't have enough ATGMs but they've got recoiless rifles up the ying-yang. I would be entrenching brigades along the invasion routes (with proper fall back positions). I would expect my positions to be over-run but also I would keep a tiger force well hidden to attack Russian LOCs once the main force moved past me.

                                In short, I would be getting damned ready and I would be absolutely confident that I can carry out the mission I set out before me. I've got an entrenched brigade. I could at least meet a Russian division head on.
                                Already done

                                In eastern Ukraine, trench warfare grinds on against backdrop of invasion fears | Stars & Stripes | Jan 23 2022

                                On a crisp, sunny morning last week, snow coated the ground and slicked the interiors of the meandering network of narrow trenches. The Ukrainian defensive line runs the length of the de facto border of the Donbas, the colloquial name for the Donets Basin, a mining and industrial region.

                                Ukrainian forces hand-dug the trenches with shovels, often working under cover of darkness. Corrugated steel sheets line the trench’s earthen walls, but roots and branches poke through large gaps. Wooden planks form a makeshift footpath, but it shifts perilously underfoot with changing weather conditions: rain and snow, freeze and frost.

                                The Ukrainian troops are well aware the harsh conditions hark back to battles from a bygone era. Canadian trainers who visited, they said, were taken aback by what they saw, never having experienced trench warfare themselves.

                                Every few hundred yards there are observation points where Ukrainian soldiers can view enemy movements through binoculars or periscopes. The unpredictability is nerve-racking; sometimes there is incoming fire for days in a row, followed by a week of silence.

                                Such lulls are considered the most dangerous times, soldiers say, because it’s so easy to let one’s guard down. In the summertime, under cover of long grass, separatist fighters can come within 50 yards of the trenches.

                                In the trenches, there are few illusions about the strength of this defending force against a full-scale invasion by the far more powerful Russian military, should it occur. But Ukrainian officers say the battlefield picture is different than it was in 2014.

                                Cmdr. Dzhemil Izmailov, who leads a Ukrainian mechanized infantry battalion, said the Russian army would face stiff resistance along the Donbas front line, citing multiple lines of defense.

                                “We are prepared,” he said.
                                Canadian trainers ? then there must be more from other NATO countries coaching them along.

                                Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                                I have a very low view of the Ukranian military. Ok, the high tech stuff they have an excuse for but there is absolutely no reason why shovel and concrete have not been used to their fullest extent. The Ukranians had over 6 years to prepare. There is ONE fortified trench in the south. There should be at least 3. The Soviets built up Kursk against three German armies in 6 months. The UKR had over a year since last uproar and not one single AT minefield had been laid. Not one single KZ has been set out.
                                Well, that's more detail that i have posted above.

                                Last edited by Double Edge; 25 Jan 22,, 18:21.

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