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  • Originally posted by zraver View Post
    Losing an airborne brigade and attached spetsnaz forces would be a huge loss of morale and prestige and propaganda defeat. Those two get the best of the litter. Combining a solid defeat at the airport and all the antiwar protests at home and it could cause Putin serious problems at home and make him look for a way to "declare victory" and get out. He has never really had to take a punch
    Too early to claim that. Even we got set backs in the Kuwait and Iraq Wars. Khafji comes to mind. And I can gather no intel that the insertion force was destroyed, only that it has been repulsed. As far as I can tell, it is still a viable force.

    Chimo

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    • What's everyone's take on why the Russians did not replicate the pre-Desert Storm month-long bombardment before going in on the ground?

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      • Originally posted by Mithridates View Post
        What's everyone's take on why the Russians did not replicate the pre-Desert Storm month-long bombardment before going in on the ground?
        This is just my ignorant assessment, but I'd say a variety of factors, in no particular order:

        1. The Kremlin isn't as casualty-averse as the nations that made up the majority of the Desert Storm coalition.
        2. Politically, Putin needs a fast victory/fair accompli. Time is not on his side. He needs to end this quickly.
        3. The VVS doesn't have the staying power (multiple factors) for a prolonged and intense bombing campaign
        "Donald Trump is the first seditious president in our history. He decided he would not abide by the election, the duly constituted, free election of Joe Biden as the president of the United States, and staged a coup to keep Biden from taking office." ~ Carl Bernstein

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        • Originally posted by TopHatter View Post

          This is just my ignorant assessment, but I'd say a variety of factors, in no particular order:

          1. The Kremlin isn't as casualty-averse as the nations that made up the majority of the Desert Storm coalition.
          2. Politically, Putin needs a fast victory/fair accompli. Time is not on his side. He needs to end this quickly.
          3. The VVS doesn't have the staying power (multiple factors) for a prolonged and intense bombing campaign
          So my big question, how is Putin going to react to heavy Russian casualties?
          If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

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          • Originally posted by Monash View Post

            So my big question, how is Putin going to react to heavy Russian casualties?
            He won't particularly care. The man is a soulless void.

            He'll only care if it means their objectives aren't being met or if it causes him uncontrollable unrest at home.
            "Donald Trump is the first seditious president in our history. He decided he would not abide by the election, the duly constituted, free election of Joe Biden as the president of the United States, and staged a coup to keep Biden from taking office." ~ Carl Bernstein

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            • Originally posted by TopHatter View Post

              He won't particularly care. The man is a soulless void.

              He'll only care if it means their objectives aren't being met or if it causes him uncontrollable unrest at home.
              Yes it was that last point I was interested in. Agreed the man has no moral scruples unless it's his own precious arse is on the line but, that being the case how hard are potentially thousands of Russian casualties going to hurt him?
              If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

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              • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                Too early to claim that. Even we got set backs in the Kuwait and Iraq Wars. Khafji comes to mind. And I can gather no intel that the insertion force was destroyed, only that it has been repulsed. As far as I can tell, it is still a viable force.
                One of the reasons I said they have till morning. They won't kill everyone but if they can hold the airport, break Russian unit cohesion and cause a big body count it's a win. But, they only have till morning. Once the sun comes up the full might of Russia's airpower will hammer any UA units identified by the embattled assault troops.

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                • Originally posted by Albany Rifles View Post
                  To my earlier post, some ideas of knowing what you are reading and posting are accurate.

                  https://www.poynter.org/reporting-ed...mN78vVKl2EN5Go

                  The short version of this is 'go to bellingcat'. They have never got the love folks like Snowden and The Rapist have because they focus more on dictatorships like Russia than Western democracies. Pity, because they do VERY good work.
                  sigpic

                  Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C

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                  • Originally posted by Monash View Post

                    Yes it was that last point I was interested in. Agreed the man has no moral scruples unless it's his own precious arse is on the line but, that being the case how hard are potentially thousands of Russian casualties going to hurt him?
                    I hesitated to post this as I have no way of confirming this info but it jibes with other things from the past couple of years:

                    Russia Used Beatings and Tricks to Forcibly Send Rookie Troops to Ukraine, Rights Group Says

                    Russian soldiers from all across the country were deceived into heading to the Ukrainian border, and some were beaten if they resisted, according to the Committee of Soldiers’ Mothers, a Russian non-governmental organization that works to expose human rights violations within the military.

                    The group is reportedly preparing a complaint for the Chief Military Prosecutor’s Office alleging that their sons only recently joined the military as conscripts and were told they were going to the border with Ukraine for drills. But their statuses were then abruptly changed to contract soldiers— a role for those with more combat and training experience—and they were suddenly thrust into war.

                    “They are switching entire regiments to contract [soldiers,] although the guys did not submit any formal requests for this, and took no such initiative. There are instances of physical violence, and beatings of those who refuse to become contract soldiers. And after that it’s completely unknown [what happens to them], because they take away their phones,” Andrei Kurochkin, the deputy chairman of the group, told Takie Dela.

                    “We've had a flurry of calls from scared mothers all over Russia. They are crying, they don’t know if their children are alive or healthy,” he was quoted saying, adding that it’s a “complete catastrophe” when military service is performed “under duress.”

                    “If there is a war, then professionals should deal with it, and not untrained ‘green’ guys,” Kurochkin said.

                    After hours of battles in multiple cities on Thursday, Ukraine’s Defense Ministry said Russian troops had suffered losses, though they stopped short of providing specific figures. As of Thursday evening, the Russian soldiers were taking “an operational pause and regrouping,” the ministry said.

                    Ukrainian authorities said two Russian soldiers were also captured.

                    The claims that some Russian soldiers were literally forced into the war with Ukraine come after Britain’s Defense Ministry released footage it said showed Russia was using mobile crematoriums to conceal its own soldiers’ deaths from the world.

                    Defense Minister Ben Wallace told The Telegraph the vehicle-mounted crematoriums “evaporate” each body placed inside them.

                    He described the crematoriums as a “very chilling side effect of how the Russians view their forces.”

                    “If I was a soldier and knew that my generals had so little faith in me that they followed me around the battlefield with a mobile crematorium, or I was the mother or father of a son, potentially deployed into a combat zone, and my government thought that the way to cover up loss was mobile crematorium, I'd be deeply, deeply worried,” Wallace was quoted saying.

                    Amid a worldwide outcry over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin has been quick to stifle dissent at home. Numerous protests were staged in cities across the country on Thursday, but they were quickly dispersed by riot police who bundled protesters into police vans. OVD-Info, a media resource that tracks arrests during mass protests, reported more than 1,500 arrests in multiple cities.
                    _____________


                    Mobile Crematoriums - Anybody have any thoughts on this footage?

                    "Donald Trump is the first seditious president in our history. He decided he would not abide by the election, the duly constituted, free election of Joe Biden as the president of the United States, and staged a coup to keep Biden from taking office." ~ Carl Bernstein

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                    • Originally posted by Monash View Post

                      Yes it was that last point I was interested in. Agreed the man has no moral scruples unless it's his own precious arse is on the line but, that being the case how hard are potentially thousands of Russian casualties going to hurt him?
                      Depends on what they buy. A new government imposed on Ukraine will go farther than a few border areas taken and a depression at home.

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                      • Originally posted by zraver View Post

                        Depends on what they buy. A new government imposed on Ukraine will go farther than a few border areas taken and a depression at home.
                        A new government imposed by Russia will need a large Russian occupation/security force along with presumably a significant number of Russian casualties to insurgent activity. Otherwise the new government could go the way of the Yanukovych regime in 2014 quite quickly. Would that be sustainable for Putin?

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                        • Where are most people here getting their live info from?

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                          • Originally posted by TopHatter View Post

                            This is just my ignorant assessment, but I'd say a variety of factors, in no particular order:

                            1. The Kremlin isn't as casualty-averse as the nations that made up the majority of the Desert Storm coalition.
                            2. Politically, Putin needs a fast victory/fair accompli. Time is not on his side. He needs to end this quickly.
                            3. The VVS doesn't have the staying power (multiple factors) for a prolonged and intense bombing campaign
                            I also have some thoughts (also my ignorant assessment) that one upside is not having the world stream a bombing campaign live on social media for weeks that the russian people can also see. Putin doesnt have social media control anything like China. Which really is just a twist on your number 2.

                            Also If the assessment was the Ukraine had not fully mobilised or set up proper defenses (especially in south and north) than perhaps they thought there was enough upside of a rapid invasion.

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                            • It looks bad for Ukraine, some Intelligence reports saying that Kyiv may fall in hours or days

                              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...s-within-hours

                              Is there any prospect of Ukraine surviving for a period of time or atleast imposing a significant cost to the Russian invading force? A protracted urban war might be a chance for that, horrific as the costs might be to the civilian population.

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                              • Originally posted by InExile View Post
                                Is there any prospect of Ukraine surviving for a period of time or atleast imposing a significant cost to the Russian invading force? A protracted urban war might be a chance for that, horrific as the costs might be to the civilian population.
                                That's the most likely scenario. A similar situation to 2003, the U.S. blew through the Iraqi armed forces like a bag of leaves....and then afterwards the shit hit the fan.
                                "Donald Trump is the first seditious president in our history. He decided he would not abide by the election, the duly constituted, free election of Joe Biden as the president of the United States, and staged a coup to keep Biden from taking office." ~ Carl Bernstein

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