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  • 2021-2022 Russo-Ukrainian War

    gets no help from either Turkey or Poland? Biden appears to have ruled out a role for NATO air units in support of Ukrainian ground forces.

  • #2
    As of today there are currently 92,000 Russian troops at the eastern border, give or take a few more thousand volunteers from the pro-Russian rebel factions. This is not even nearly enough to make a major offensive push into Ukraine, never mind occupy ground. Even if the Russians decide to go all-in and manage to occupy Kiev, the ensuing insurgency will deplete the Kremlin's blood and treasure to a degree not seen since Afghanistan.
    "Draft beer, not people."

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    • #3
      Originally posted by Red Team View Post
      As of today there are currently 92,000 Russian troops at the eastern border, give or take a few more thousand volunteers from the pro-Russian rebel factions. This is not even nearly enough to make a major offensive push into Ukraine, never mind occupy ground. Even if the Russians decide to go all-in and manage to occupy Kiev, the ensuing insurgency will deplete the Kremlin's blood and treasure to a degree not seen since Afghanistan.
      ???

      The Russians hold the C4ISR advantage. They can run circles around Ukrainian formations. What this essentially means is that the Russians can destroy the Ukrainian forces threatening the DNR and LNR. We're not giving the Ukrainians anything close to what they need to repulse the Russians. Sure the Ukrainians can bleed the Russians white but not before yielding ground to the Russians.
      Chimo

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      • #4
        Originally posted by Red Team View Post
        Even if the Russians decide to go all-in and manage to occupy Kiev, the ensuing insurgency will deplete the Kremlin's blood and treasure to a degree not seen since Afghanistan.
        Not to be a Debbie Downer, but the Wikipedia article only shows 5,660 Russian dead in the desultory back-and-forth over the Donbass. Maybe this time, it's different, but the Ukrainians haven't exactly done much to the Russians. Of course, the Afghans took 1m dead in the course of evicting the Russians, so you could argue that the Ukrainian exchange ratio is way better.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
          ???

          The Russians hold the C4ISR advantage. They can run circles around Ukrainian formations. What this essentially means is that the Russians can destroy the Ukrainian forces threatening the DNR and LNR. We're not giving the Ukrainians anything close to what they need to repulse the Russians. Sure the Ukrainians can bleed the Russians white but not before yielding ground to the Russians.
          Sir I agree, my point was that in a conventional war, the Russians would pummel the hell out of the Ukranians (maybe even make it to Kiev?) and overall dominate the conventional war. However, the ensuing insurgency would bleed them dry to a point where it is simply not worth the price of holding that captured ground.

          Col. you may have a differing view on this but IMO the adage "Deterrence is not Warfighting" holds true for the Ukrainians. They don't have to match the Russians toe-to-toe, they just have to present enough of a force to convince the Russians that the cost wouldn't be worth it.

          "Draft beer, not people."

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          • #6
            Originally posted by Mithridates View Post
            Not to be a Debbie Downer, but the Wikipedia article only shows 5,660 Russian dead in the desultory back-and-forth over the Donbass. Maybe this time, it's different, but the Ukrainians haven't exactly done much to the Russians. Of course, the Afghans took 1m dead in the course of evicting the Russians, so you could argue that the Ukrainian exchange ratio is way better.
            The current conflict in the Donbass would significantly pale in comparison to a larger occupation of Ukraine as a whole. That occupation will not have the benefit of a majority population that is amenable to Kremlin rule.
            "Draft beer, not people."

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            • #7
              Originally posted by Red Team View Post
              As of today there are currently 92,000 Russian troops at the eastern border, give or take a few more thousand volunteers from the pro-Russian rebel factions.
              thought I saw greater than 100k a couple weeks ago

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              • #8
                Originally posted by rj1 View Post

                thought I saw greater than 100k a couple weeks ago
                I'm going off of the Reuters estimates, but I could see it being even higher as the Kremlin deploys more troops, or maybe even if they include "volunteers" from the rebel groups in the estimate.
                "Draft beer, not people."

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                • #9
                  Russia Demands ‘Urgent’ U.S. Talks, Warning of ‘Military Response’ to NATO Activity
                  In its list of demands published Friday, Russia demanded that the U.S. not establish any new military bases in ex-Soviet countries and that NATO guarantee to block these states' future memberships.

                  Russia also wants NATO to abandon all military activities in Ukraine, Eastern Europe, the Caucasus region and Central Asia.

                  Additionally, Russia wants NATO to pledge not to deploy troops in former-communist member states Poland, the Czech Republic and the Baltics without Moscow’s consent.

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                  • #10
                    2 words to this,,,,,fuck 'em.
                    “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
                    Mark Twain

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                    • #11
                      Russia Hockey Team Dons Soviet Jerseys in Loss to Finland
                      Russia’s national hockey team donned Soviet jerseys in their overtime loss to Finland on Sunday.

                      Finland defeated Russia 3:2 at the 2021 Channel One Cup in Moscow.

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                      • #12
                        "Give us this security guarantee."
                        "Not on your life buster."
                        "Allright then, we invade. What are you going to do about it?"
                        "We'll negotiate to try and stop you invading due to no one being willing to send our troops or military equipment into harm's way, but if you don't accept our negotiations we'll throw at you financial sanctions we have proven multiple times in multiple conflicts do nothing."

                        (Aren't the Russians still on financial sanctions from Crimea 7 years ago?)

                        Like I said elsewhere yesterday: if some countries want Ukraine in NATO, a mutual defense organization where an attack on one is an attack on all and they would be obligated to come to their defense if Ukraine was attacked, no one is coming to Ukraine's help here when such aid is voluntary. That's a pretty clear signal on the likelihood of any NATO membership prospects for Ukraine. If NATO does enlarge however and the Western and Central European attitude of run away from any conflict still holds, NATO is getting setup to get Rio Treaty'd in the future of state inside NATO is attacked and everyone ignores the mutual defense clause in the name of "sucks for you, but it serves the greater peace".
                        Last edited by rj1; 22 Dec 21,, 13:46.

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                        • #13
                          “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
                          Mark Twain

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                          • #14
                            Canada Cup!!!!
                            Chimo

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                            • #15
                              Report: Russia now has 265,000 troops near Ukraine border
                              Russia now has about 265,000 troops stationed within 250 miles of its border with Ukraine, according to a new assessment of troop movements by Ukrainian Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Oleksiy Danilov.

                              Danilov revealed the assessment of Russian military activity during a visit to the Ivano-Frankivsk region, the Ukrainian state-run National News Agency of Ukraine (also known as Ukrinform) reported on Wednesday.

                              Danilov said of the 265,000 Russian troops, 122,000 are located within 200 km (125 miles) of the Russian border with Ukraine. Another 143,500 troops are located between 200 and 400 km (250 miles) of the Ukrainian border.

                              Danilov’s assessment represents an increase in Russia’s troop presence in recent days. For weeks, Russian troops have been massing near the Ukraine border. Until now, assessments have put the number of Russian troops near Ukraine’s border at between 80,000 and 110,000.

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