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Coronavirus: the Chinese Political Angle

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  • #31
    Originally posted by Bigfella View Post
    The possibility that the way China runs itself might have made this worse than it needed to be won't be up for consideration or discussion.
    Here's a guy accusing the local authorities of Buffalo NY of exactly the same tactics as the CCP. He says they're lying by downplaying the cases saying its low risk. Information in Buffalo, NY is being suppressed so the politicans can look glorious & fabulous. With no shame they can look responsible and great leaders.

    Check his channel out, he has more to say. Is he an attention seeker or a whistle blower ?

    The fire depts facebook post has since been deleted so he contends this is censorship. It's gone. See for yourself.

    Gag order imposed on cops, fire dept & health workers. Worse than China he says who in his estimation is trying to fight this thing.

    Not a single confirmed case in all of NYC but some upstate? Funny isn't it.

    Comment : So now New York is going to handle the situation just like the CCP?

    FL, AK, NC now also have gag laws in place

    Whereas the local authorities are trying to counter rumours and conspiracy theories

    Erie County Health Commissioner Gale Burstein: Random facebook guy might not be a reliable source of information

    A commenter : She's about as smart as she looks...Who in their right mind would believe anything that dumbshit lady says?

    Another comment : She looks like a puppet, I wonder whose (sic) pulling her strings. I hear fear in her voice.

    First responder here says he is more concerned about contracting flu than corona virus : D
    Last edited by Double Edge; 23 Feb 20,, 20:46.


    • #32
      More theories : )

      He is saying it was a covert hit on the bio labs in Wuhan using the cover of the world military games Oct last, also, held in Wuhan. Can always say it was an accident at the labs and the Chinese have to take the blame.

      The curious bit, is on the same day as the military games began there was a meeting in New York hosted by the Bill & Melinda Gates foundation, John Hoplins & WEF called Event 201 to discuss the state of preparedness around the world in the event of a pandemic. That is Oct 18 2019

      These are their recommendations

      Last recommendation is interesting

      Governments and the private sector should assign a greater priority to developing methods to combat mis- and disinformation prior to the next pandemic response.

      Governments will need to partner with traditional and social media companies to research and develop nimble approaches to countering misinformation. This will require developing the ability to flood media with fast, accurate, and consistent information.

      Public health authorities should work with private employers and trusted community leaders such as faith leaders, to promulgate factual information to employees and citizens.

      Trusted, influential private-sector employers should create the capacity to readily and reliably augment public messaging, manage rumors and misinformation, and amplify credible information to support emergency public communications.

      National public health agencies should work in close collaboration with WHO to create the capability to rapidly develop and release consistent health messages.

      For their part, media companies should commit to ensuring that authoritative messages are prioritized and that false messages are suppressed including though the use of technology.
      Discussion explains what India is facing and has to do in Kashmir. And what some states in the US are doing by issuing gag orders.

      Bill Gates has been advocating for better pandemic preparedness since 2015. His TED talk

      The argument was if millions of people were at risk of terrorism then how would the world govts deal with it. What resources would they bring to bear.

      Ok, now think bio terrorism or pandemic. He wants a NATO like response with the equipment and people ready to go. Paired with the military. Conduct germ games instead of war games. Last germ game simulations of note were held back in 2001 and the germs won.

      His foundation has just donated $100 million in support of COVID-19
      Last edited by Double Edge; 24 Feb 20,, 00:37.


      • #33
        Japanese govt does not look good in this episode


        • #34
          Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
          Fine but imagine it was decentralised in this situation. You'd have different areas responding on their own or not. This continues for weeks.

          At what point does the centre get a sense of what it is happening and tell the world. Would it be any faster or better.

          People are quite bitter over all of this i can see from numerous videos. Everything is wrong with the system.

          The govt that is supposed to provide everything has failed.
          Decentralization was pretty much at its last peak during SARS. But, just because local officials were told to make (almost all) decisions, and then be evaluated, well, that doesn't mean they make the right decisions. Shanghai decided to shove all SARS suspects into Zhejiang and Jiangsu, and to this day officially never had a single case inside the city. Bad decision.

          Once an issue becomes big, the central authorities step in, regardless of the degree of decentralization being tolerated.
          Trust me?
          I'm an economist!


          • #35
            That knock on the door.

            Harder to fight an epidemic in a democracy. Harder to do when the internet can scream all kinds of lies.

            Video is from Feb 07. The good doctor Li has already passed


            • #36
              SARS vs. the WuFlu

              The 2003 and 2019 outbreaks are both corona viruses, but they are on very different trajectories. Over seven months, SARS infected 8,098 people and killed 774 (9.6%).

              WuFlu (Wuhan Influenza) surpassed the number of infections within two weeks of being tracked, and is now at about the 80,000 cases level. Deaths, as of Feb 24, were only 2,627, or 3.3%.

              That doesn't mean the death rate can't rise to SARS-like levels, but it would take an additional 5,000 deaths -- and no new cases -- to reach that level from today's rates.

              One more difference: in 2003, 16.6 million Chinese citizens traveled abroad.
              In 2018, the figure was 149.7 million.
              Trust me?
              I'm an economist!


              • #37
                The difference between an econmist and a military man.

                At ~9000 SARS infected, SARS was contained. At 80,000+ COVID-19 infected, leakage has and will continue to occur.

                Those who died are already dead. We can't do crap all about that. We're trying to avoid new deaths. Throwing about 9.6% vs 3.3% is ludicrous and absolutely meaningless. Where are those people dying? Are they all dying in the same place or has it spread? Newsflash it has.
                Last edited by WABs_OOE; 25 Feb 20,, 21:12.


                • #38
                  The drug companies say they have enough supplies for another 8 to ten weeks. This means if the situation in China does not improve come April, we will see price hikes on some categories of drugs in India which will have a knock on effect on the countries we export drugs to.

                  We made API's in the 90s (Active phramaceutical ingredients). But the ones from China were cheaper so over the next two decades ended up with China providing 70% of the raw materials & intermediaries for our drugs industry

                  And no, i'm not so reassured that just because April will be warmer than Feb that this Covid thing just goes away like that. Because of hot weather. I think it would be good to stock up on some drugs just in case things don't improve in April.
                  Last edited by Double Edge; 25 Feb 20,, 22:01.


                  • #39
                    Originally posted by DOR View Post
                    That doesn't mean the death rate can't rise to SARS-like levels, but it would take an additional 5,000 deaths -- and no new cases -- to reach that level from today's rates.
                    The problem is misdiagnosis.

                    False positive. People who do not have WuFlu but just flu being diagnosed with WuFlu and then put in quarantine with people that have WuFlu.

                    False negative. People cleared as not having WuFlu but allowed to enter the general population where they can infect others.

                    The lower death rate with COVID makes it troublesome as it can spread further than SARS which developed symptoms faster.

                    COVID is more flu like than SARS
                    Last edited by Double Edge; 25 Feb 20,, 23:04.


                    • #40
                      If one looks at countries most affected it gives us a real time map of which countries have links with China and the number of infected the depth of the relationship. The one country i'm not hearing much about in this crisis is Taiwan. Because Taiwan does not exist as far as the WHO is concerned.

                      The Coronavirus Comes for Taiwan | National Interest | Fe 17 2020

                      Here is the Taiwan govt's thinking as of end last month

                      President Tsai issues remarks regarding the coronavirus outbreak and responds to questions from the media | Office of the President | Jan 30 2020

                      So far in Taiwan infection rates are in the low two digits and deaths in the low single digits

                      I think the way to understand the figures is whatever number of infected/deaths is mentioned say for today, assume it is ten days old. The real number today is higher.


                      • #41
                        Trump is facing bipartisan backlash for his handling of the coronavirus' spread in the US as the CDC warns 'this might be bad'

                        President Donald Trump downplayed concerns about the novel coronavirus during a Tuesday morning press conference, saying, "The whole situation will start working out."

                        Just a few hours later, officials at the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said the American public should prepare for the spread of the flu-like virus in the US and that it "might be bad." While Trump said Tuesday that there were "probably 10" infected people in the US, the CDC said 57 people have been diagnosed with the virus in the US.

                        "It's not so much of a question of if this will happen in this country anymore but a question of when this will happen," Dr. Nancy Messonnier, the director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, told reporters. "We are asking the American public to prepare for the expectation that this might be bad."

                        Democrats and even some Republicans began lashing out at the president and his administration's response to the virus.

                        House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Tuesday called Trump's Monday request for $2.5 billion in emergency funding to combat the disease "long overdue and completely inadequate to the scale of this emergency."

                        The Trump administration hesitated for weeks to pursue the "supplemental funds" but shifted course as COVID-19 accelerated outside China on Monday and financial markets dropped sharply.

                        "Our state and local governments need serious funding to be ready to respond effectively to any outbreak in the U.S.," Pelosi tweeted. "The President should not be raiding money that Congress has appropriated for other life-or-death public health priorities."

                        'No plan'
                        Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer accused Trump of having "no plan" to deal with the virus' spread and argued he was exhibiting "towering and dangerous incompetence."

                        Democrats also attacked the president for cutting significant funding and staff from the federal government's pandemic-response teams, including the CDC's global-health division and the National Security Council's global-health-security unit.

                        Sen. Brian Schatz, a Hawaii Democrat, called National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow's claim that the US has "contained" the virus "bad information" and "extraordinarily dangerous."

                        Schatz accused Trump administration officials of lying about the severity of the threat posed by the virus to prevent further drops in the stock market. The market continued its drop on Tuesday after the S&P 500 fell 3.4% on Monday, its biggest drop in two years.

                        "I cannot imagine anyone more ill equipped to prevent a global pandemic," Schatz said of the president in a tweet. "This is when having some knowledge of and respect for government and science is essential."

                        Some Republican lawmakers also took issue with the Trump administration's response.

                        Sen. John Kennedy of Louisiana accused acting Homeland Security Secretary Chad Wolf of not knowing enough about the virus' spread in the US and the ways it can be contracted.

                        Trump previously said the coronavirus, which has infected a confirmed 77,000 people in mainland China, would naturally disappear in the spring "as the weather starts to warm & the virus hopefully becomes weaker, and then gone."

                        This is what Trump's "leadership" looks like. Curiously enough, it takes more than just being "the anti-lefty" to lead a nation of 327 million people that also sits atop the global stage. And Trump, who doesn't have the slightest shred of respect for government, governing or science, is probably the very worst person to be sitting in the Oval Office right now.

                        Now just imagine if Donnie Dumbshit wanted to cut funding to organizations like the CDC and NIH. But what kind of fucking MORON would do something like that?? Oh, yeah, I forgot....

                        But, you know, "TDS".


                        • #42
                          ^yes, yes, blame the govt is the MO these days. Here's one that generated a lot of heartburn in China. The headline was racist according to their foreign office. Came out Feb 02

                          China Is the Real Sick Man of Asia | WSJ (op-ed) | Feb 03 2020

                          His argument is essentially had the govt been more proactive then the virus would not have spread as fast. Is that a credible argument when they did not even know what the heck they were dealing with to start ??

                          Its financial markets may be even more dangerous than its wildlife markets.

                          By Walter Russell Mead
                          Feb. 3, 2020 6:47 pm ET

                          The mighty Chinese juggernaut has been humbled this week, apparently by a species-hopping bat virus. While Chinese authorities struggle to control the epidemic and restart their economy, a world that has grown accustomed to contemplating China’s inexorable rise was reminded that nothing, not even Beijing’s power, can be taken for granted.

                          We do not know how dangerous the new coronavirus will be. There are signs that Chinese authorities are still trying to conceal the true scale of the problem, but at this point the virus appears to be more contagious but considerably less deadly than the pathogens behind diseases such as Ebola or SARS—though some experts say SARS and coronavirus are about equally contagious.

                          China’s initial response to the crisis was less than impressive. The Wuhan government was secretive and self-serving; national authorities responded vigorously but, it currently appears, ineffectively. China’s cities and factories are shutting down; the virus continues to spread. We can hope that authorities succeed in containing the epidemic and treating its victims, but the performance to date has shaken confidence in the Chinese Communist Party at home and abroad. Complaints in Beijing about the U.S. refusing entry to noncitizens who recently spent time in China cannot hide the reality that the decisions that allowed the epidemic to spread as far and as fast as it did were all made in Wuhan and Beijing.

                          The likeliest economic consequence of the coronavirus epidemic, forecasters expect, will be a short and sharp fall in Chinese economic growth rates during the first quarter, recovering as the disease fades. The most important longer-term outcome would appear to be a strengthening of a trend for global companies to “de-Sinicize” their supply chains. Add the continuing public health worries to the threat of new trade wars, and supply-chain diversification begins to look prudent.

                          Events like the coronavirus epidemic, and its predecessors—such as SARS, Ebola and MERS—test our systems and force us to think about the unthinkable. If there were a disease as deadly as Ebola and as fast-spreading as coronavirus, how should the U.S. respond? What national and international systems need to be in place to minimize the chance of catastrophe on this scale?

                          Epidemics also lead us to think about geopolitical and economic hypotheticals. We have seen financial markets shudder and commodity prices fall in the face of what hopefully will be a short-lived disturbance in China’s economic growth. What would happen if—perhaps in response to an epidemic, but more likely following a massive financial collapse—China’s economy were to suffer a long period of even slower growth? What would be the impact of such developments on China’s political stability, on its attitude toward the rest of the world, and to the global balance of power?

                          China’s financial markets are probably more dangerous in the long run than China’s wildlife markets. Given the accumulated costs of decades of state-driven lending, massive malfeasance by local officials in cahoots with local banks, a towering property bubble, and vast industrial overcapacity, China is as ripe as a country can be for a massive economic correction. Even a small initial shock could lead to a massive bonfire of the vanities as all the false values, inflated expectations and misallocated assets implode. If that comes, it is far from clear that China’s regulators and decision makers have the technical skills or the political authority to minimize the damage—especially since that would involve enormous losses to the wealth of the politically connected.

                          We cannot know when or even if a catastrophe of this scale will take place, but students of geopolitics and international affairs—not to mention business leaders and investors—need to bear in mind that China’s power, impressive as it is, remains brittle. A deadlier virus or a financial-market contagion could transform China’s economic and political outlook at any time.

                          Many now fear the coronavirus will become a global pandemic. The consequences of a Chinese economic meltdown would travel with the same sweeping inexorability. Commodity prices around the world would slump, supply chains would break down, and few financial institutions anywhere could escape the knock-on consequences. Recovery in China and elsewhere could be slow, and the social and political effects could be dramatic.

                          If Beijing’s geopolitical footprint shrank as a result, the global consequences might also be surprising. Some would expect a return of unipolarity if the only possible great-power rival to the U.S. were to withdraw from the game. Yet in the world of American politics, isolation rather than engagement might surge to the fore. If the China challenge fades, many Americans are likely to assume that the U.S. can safely reduce its global commitments.

                          So far, the 21st century has been an age of black swans. From 9/11 to President Trump’s election and Brexit, low-probability, high-impact events have reshaped the world order. That age isn’t over, and of the black swans still to arrive, the coronavirus epidemic is unlikely to be the last to materialize in China.
                          CCP booted out 3 credentialed reporters of the WSJ as a result. There was a even a protest letter by the WSJ China staff to senior management to change the headline
                          Last edited by Double Edge; 26 Feb 20,, 00:34.


                          • #43
                            This one's ideological. Remember Chernobyl ? this time its happening in China for the same reasons

                            He mentions that 3 week window that could have changed things.

                            But that's the point isn't it, 3 weeks instead of 3 months. Why aren't more people getting this ?!?!

                            Did these two really have to go all the way to Chernobyl ? its a rhetorical device but why isn't SARS a less cluttered & simpler equivalent.

                            I'm not so sure of the underlined bit. Why would people protest at the govt for warning them. Likely is the govt did not want a panic on its hands without being ready to some what deal with such an eventuality.

                            China's biological 'Chernobyl': Different country, same lies | The Hill (op-ed) | Jan 28 2020

                            By Bradley A. Thayer & Lianchao Han

                            China’s recent deadly coronavirus outbreak, commencing in Wuhan in early December 2019 and rapidly spreading throughout the country and world, demonstrates that dictatorship can exacerbate a disaster, whether it is naturally occurring or manmade, such as the Soviet Sverdlovsk anthrax outbreak in 1979.

                            The pandemic is China’s Chernobyl. While the Chinese authorities initially reported about 800 cases and 25 deaths, that death toll in China has risen to 80 and the number of confirmed cases is growing by the thousands. Videos, texts and other information sent out from the epicenter through various outlets indicate the number of people exposed to the virus may be as high as 100,000. Videos show Wuhan hospitals packed with patients, people collapsing on the streets, and medical staff breaking down.

                            Chinese authorities have shut down Wuhan and 15 surrounding cities in the province, affecting some 41 million residents — but is this unusual action too drastic, and were the attempts to curb the virus imposed too late?

                            In 1986, the Soviets initially lied about the nuclear accident at Chernobyl before physical evidence forced them to disclose the truth. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) followed the Soviet playbook for this pandemic: On Dec. 8, doctors confirmed the first coronavirus patient but Wuhan’s mayor now acknowledges the city’s action was insufficient. Officials did not alert the public until Dec. 30, missing a valuable three-week window to control the spread of the virus.

                            Meanwhile, authorities detained and punished eight Wuhan residents with knowledge of the health risk who had warned the public through social media, accusing people of “fabricating and spreading rumors.” Journalists who attempted to cover news of the outbreak were harassed and had to show their reports to police.

                            The pandemic has touched many Chinese, inside and outside of China. People are trying to send medical supplies to Wuhan but say the police often stop them. One person posted his story on Twitter, saying he and his friends raised money and bought 4,407 cases of masks and goggles but policy threatened to throw him in jail if he didn’t stop his activity.

                            More outrageous is that the pandemic coincided with a community new year banquet in the city, attended by more than 130,000 people, which created an opportunity for the virus to spread. While the local Communist Party leaders enjoyed the Chinese New Year celebration, hospitals were stressed to address the difficulty. As the situation worsened, China’s President Xi Jinping warned of “a grave situation.”

                            Chinese authorities initially likely did not disclose the severity of the pandemic because they feared this tragedy could trigger massive protests, shaking China’s regime security. China strives always to show a prosperous, harmonious atmosphere, a stabilized society, even at the cost of the health of its citizens.

                            The crisis of this pandemic is far from over. The Communist Party’s handling of the situation demonstrates that socialism with Chinese characteristics — a totalitarian model that lacks transparency, free speech, free press and respect of human rights and human dignity — cannot and will not resolve crises of this magnitude, and similar tragedies are likely to happen.

                            China’s actions compel damning conclusions about the behavior of the CCP. Local party officials could not contain the disease and evidently chose to lie about its scope and severity until the truth was exposed. These actions likely worsened the impact of the virus far beyond China’s borders. The government tightly controlled information for weeks after the outbreak in mid-December and shared the genetic sequence only recently after being pressured to do so.

                            China’s leader did not publicly address the situation until he convened a special government meeting on the Lunar New Year, as frustration grew among those at the epicenter of the virus. As a dictator, Xi Jinping is beyond the reach of a popular election and therefore can avoid the fear and suffering of the Chinese people. This is a telling characteristic of the leadership model of his idol, Mao Zedong, who caused and was indifferent to the people’s suffering.

                            Because the Lunar New Year is the most important holiday for the Chinese people, transmission rates are certain to increase. And, inevitably, the Chinese people will learn of the government’s lies, evasion and deception. They will add this to their list of regime failures, which long ago caused the loss of the party’s legitimacy to rule China.

                            Bradley A. Thayer is Professor of Political Science at the University of Texas San Antonio and is the co-author of How China Sees the World: Han-Centrism and the Balance of Power in International Politics.

                            Lianchao Han is vice president of Citizen Power Initiatives for China. After the Tiananmen Square Massacre in 1989, Dr. Han was one of the founders of the Independent Federation of Chinese Students and Scholars. He worked in the U.S. Senate for 12 years, as legislative counsel and policy director for three Senators.
                            Last edited by Double Edge; 26 Feb 20,, 03:15.


                            • #44
                              More sobering read by the same author pair as to the economic effects that China's SME's will have to face

                              A virus is crippling China's economy — and threatening the world's | The Hill (op-ed) | Feb 12 2020

                              If there's going to be political trouble down the road it will come if there are mass layoffs.

                              For the CCP, the war against this pandemic is a political one and regime security relies upon winning it.
                              Economist who counted $40 billion cost from SARS predicts far bigger hit from new coronavirus | Japan Times | Jan 31 2020

                              While difficult to pinpoint a precise cost as the crisis is still unfolding, the impact will be experienced mostly through changes in “human psychology,” he said. “Panic is what seems to be the biggest drain on the economy, rather than deaths.
                              Hence why govts downplay the effects until its no longer possible.


                              • #45
                                From the The Canadians didn't do it dept : D

                                Virologist tells Steve Bannon his coronavirus conspiracy theory theory is from “crackpot websites” and is a “load of crap”

                                The number of people i see that are so convinced COVID 19 is a bio weapon is staggering.