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  • Originally posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    He doesn't follow history very well. Of all the nuclear confrontations between the US and the USSR, it was Moscow, not Washington DC who backed down.
    Hypothetical was my idea. Not Michael. I wanted to push your blockade idea some.

    The US will not be suckered into someone else's territorial dispute. The US will defend its vital sea trade lanes.
    Then there will be no blockade. FONOPS to continue as usual should China try to enforce an EEZ around the islands.

    He's ok if China with a defense budget of $200 billion has only one Senkaku to show for it : D

    But it stops there.

    He's not against a military response so blockade could be on the table but wants extra options


    The current conflict with Iran should serve as the example. Trump is ready to bomb Iran. It was others who talked him out of it when intel could not confirm it was the Iranians who planted those mines.
    Trump has been consistent there like with NK

    Michael is referring here to Trump's first order questioning of the value of alliances. eg. NATO expansion or defending islands.

    The questions are fine just that they need to not be voiced in public otherwise it gives opponents the wrong idea.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 22 Jul 19,, 09:36.

    Comment


    • Things have been heating up in the region of late. Copy pasting this from a description of a youtube video dated Jul 26 that i watched recently

      Temperatures are on the boil in the maritime domain both in the South China Sea as well as the Sea of Japan that lies to its north east.

      While the Vietnam-China face-off in the energy rich and strategically located South China Sea (SCS) continues, the Sea of Japan too became a flashpoint earlier this week with no less than four nations--South Korea, Russia, Japan and China--involved in a spat.

      It happened after South Korea accused Russian and Chinese military aircraft of violating its airspace and fired 30 warning shots besides scrambling its jets. The Russian and Chinese aircraft had reportedly flown over the disputed Dokdo/Takeshima islands over which both South Korea and Japan stakes a claim.

      An angry Tokyo, with its claims on the island, in turn accused Seoul and Moscow of violating its airspace. In the meantime, the sparring between Vietnam and China in the South China Sea shows no signs of abating. Both nations have competing claims in this sea and both claim sovereignty and jurisdiction over it as their naval vessels confront each other in what Vietnam says is its Exclusive Economic Zone.

      In the first part of this exclusive interview with SNI Deputy Editor Parul Chandra, the Vietnamese ambassador to India Pham Sanh Chau maintains it is his country that has sovereign rights as per UNCLOS. He also says that despite differences over the SCS, Vietnam and China have “good relations”and ties that are evolving in a constructive manner. On the controversial Belt and Road Initiative of China (BRI), the envoy says while Vietnam understands India’s position on it, his country is part of it as it will promote prosperity in the region and beyond.
      Looks like the Russians are cooperating with China to create a diversion and take some of the heat of China's actions in the SCS.

      Dokdo/Takeshima ? not heard of them before

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liancourt_Rocks_dispute
      Last edited by Double Edge; 28 Jul 19,, 16:45.

      Comment


      • Protest ? i thought they were friends. What about this verbal agreement between the leaders.

        Philippines protests 'swarming' of more than 100 Chinese vessels | Al Jazeera | Jul 31 2019

        The Philippines has increasingly become more outspoken against China in recent weeks, despite President Rodrigo Duterte's pronouncements that he wants to maintain closer ties with Beijing.

        On Tuesday, Defence Secretary Delfin Lorenzana accused China of bullying, saying that Beijing's peaceful assurances to Manila contrast with its behaviour in the contested waters.

        "They say we do not bully people around, they follow international law, but I said you are not, what you are telling is not what you are doing on the ground," Lorenzana said in one of his most stinging public rebukes yet of Chinese actions in territories claimed by Beijing, Manila and four other governments.

        Unless China does what it says, its words will be doubted and Filipinos will continue to look at Beijing with mistrust, said Lorenzana, a retired army general.
        No shit !

        He also cited China's low trust ratings in local opinion polls compared with those of the US, a treaty ally of the Philippines.
        Interesting

        Duterte, who revived ties with Beijing after taking office in 2016, has refused to immediately seek Chinese compliance to the arbitration ruling while seeking Chinese infrastructure funds and investment, often coming under criticism for his China-friendly approach.
        Ah so he is looking for a settlement then

        Comment


        • In June of this year, PLA Navy carrier Liaoning sailed from the East China Sea, through the Miyako Strait and into the Pacific Ocean. While it wasn't the first time for the Liaoning to sail through the Miyako Strait and then come around the southern end of Taiwan and back to China, the June 2019 sail was the first time the carrier group sailed deep into the Pacific and came up near Guam. Afterwards it sailed west and towards the South end of the Philippines and then up north into the South China Sea. The following image was from Chinese websites about the patj of the PLAN carrier group.


          Here is an image of the 6 ships that made up the Liaoning carrier group as they passed through the Miyako Strait on June 10th. The pictures are from a JSDF report about the observation of those ships sailing by. The report itself is linked below the image.

          https://www.mod.go.jp/js/Press/press...0190611_01.pdf

          This video was taken by some Vietnamese on a small boat i the South China Sea when they unexpectedly came upon the Liaoning sailing by. The video description says that the video was taken in June, 2019.

          Comment


          • It's a public statement to the Chinese. The JSDF can find the carrier. The JSDF can sink the carrier.
            Chimo

            Comment


            • While we've been distracted the Indonesians seem to have stood up to China. They are openly chanllenging China's nine dash line in the SCS. They sent destroyers, scrambled F16's and mobilised their fishermen to confront a Chinese coast guard vessel that strayed into their waters. Listen...



              China and Indonesia are comprehensive strategic friends says Zongnanhai

              Chinese have this hierarchy of titles they give to countries, partner, cooperative partner, comprehensive partner, strategic partner, comprehensive strategic partner and at the top you have comprehensive strategic cooperative partner.

              Vietnam got the top title after twenty years. How is their partnership with China doing these days ? have relations improved since they took a nosedive over ten years ago.
              Last edited by Double Edge; 10 Jan 20,, 16:25.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                While we've been distracted the Indonesians seem to have stood up to China. They are openly chanllenging China's nine dash line in the SCS. They sent destroyers, scrambled F16's and mobilised their fishermen to confront a Chinese coast guard vessel that strayed into their waters. Listen...



                China and Indonesia are comprehensive strategic friends says Zongnanhai

                Chinese have this hierarchy of titles they give to countries, partner, cooperative partner, comprehensive partner, strategic partner, comprehensive strategic partner and at the top you have comprehensive strategic cooperative partner.

                Vietnam got the top title after twenty years. How is their partnership with China doing these days ? have relations improved since they took a nosedive over ten years ago.
                Until they impound the first Chinese vessel fishing illegally in the area, in the face of armed Chinese opposition, these are mere theatrics.

                Comment


                • Political Commissars on Chinese Warships Play Crucial Role in Interactions With Foreign Vessels

                  By: John Grady
                  July 3, 2020


                  Confrontational or irrational moves by Chinese warships and planes may not be actions of a “rogue commander” but rather decisions by a political commissar, a new report describes.

                  Cmdr. Jeff Benson, a senior military fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and a former U.S. Naval Institute fellow, said Tuesday at a CSIS event that the role the political commissar plays aboard a People’s Liberation Army Navy warship is little understood but critically important in assessing Chinese short-term intentions and Beijing’s longer-range goals. The radically different command structure from the American hierarchy of a single skipper at the top also puts into play questions about “what is the party trying to achieve” by having a destroyer sail dangerously close to another vessel or an aircraft buzz a naval formation.

                  Zi Yang, co-author of “Party on the Bridge: Political Commissars in the Chinese Navy,” said President Xi Jin-ping “has tipped the balance a little more to the commissar” over the military commander in operations of a submarine, surface vessel or aircraft squadron to ensure adherence to party loyalty across the military.

                  One way of ensuring that shift is to ensure that political commissars are trained and skilled in the operations of the class of vessel or aircraft squadron they are assigned to. They “learn how to take command,” as one had to do during a confrontation with the Vietnamese after the ship’s commander fell ill.

                  What is often overlooked in examining Chinese military operations and its strategy is Xi’s emphasis on party-building during day-to-day operations.

                  “It’s time to understand” how decisions are made in the dual-command Chinese military structure. A commander and a commissar are aboard every vessel, Zi said. Benson added, “command and control are integrated as one; there is shared authority.”

                  Benson said the commander and the commissar have “distinct responsibilities” when it comes to serving aboard a warship. Among the commissar’s duties are personnel, including evaluating the commander, maintaining military and political discipline, checking on morale, conducting psychological operations and serving as a co-equal with the skipper.

                  Decisions are reached through an on-board party committee with at least two other members participating.

                  In short, the committee “decides to confront or not” or “whether to surface of not” for submarines underwater, Zi said, but “they first try to sort out matters in a personal manner.” Benson added, “it’s all about managing risk, and the commissar is in on that.”

                  This system can reduce unnecessary errors in operations, but it also is time-consuming in a rapidly developing emergency. Benson said “it’s up to the military commander to execute the military part of the operation.”

                  But in the end, even after handling an emergency, Zi said the commander’s decisions would be evaluated by the commissar.

                  Benson said the Kremlin had tried the dual command system but scrapped it. Before its collapse, “the commissar in the Soviet system was subordinate to the commander” when it came to operations.

                  Zi added there was a historical precedent for insisting on party loyalty in the Chinese navy. In the 1949 revolution that brought the Communist Party to power, most of the vessels in the fleet had been commanded and crewed by defectors from the Nationalist regime under Chiang Kai-shek.

                  Mao Tse-tung “wanted to ensure absolute loyalty to the party” from the start, he said.

                  The Communist Party under Xi doesn’t “want to fall into the same mistake as the Soviets” in downplaying loyalty in its military forces, Benson said. Link
                  ____________
                  Supporting or defending Donald Trump is such an unforgivable moral failing that it calls every bit of your judgement and character into question. Nothing about you should be trusted if you can look at this man and find redeemable value

                  Comment


                  • For intents and purposes, the Political Commisar is the 2IC. As a matter of career path, all Officers must serve as Political Commisar at least once in his career. All Political Commisars must serve at least one military tour and must qualify to assume command.
                    Chimo

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by WABs_OOE View Post
                      For intents and purposes, the Political Commisar is the 2IC. As a matter of career path, all Officers must serve as Political Commisar at least once in his career. All Political Commisars must serve at least one military tour and must qualify to assume command.
                      So they're not just party hacks like the typical Soviet zampolit?
                      Supporting or defending Donald Trump is such an unforgivable moral failing that it calls every bit of your judgement and character into question. Nothing about you should be trusted if you can look at this man and find redeemable value

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
                        So they're not just party hacks like the typical Soviet zampolit?
                        All Chinese military Officers are Party Hacks. To be an Officer, you have to be a member of the CCP. Very rarely would you get a real Professional Officer. To get anywhere above Captain, you have to do the CCP political schtick.
                        Chimo

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
                          Confrontational or irrational moves by Chinese warships and planes may not be actions of a “rogue commander” but rather decisions by a political commissar, a new report describes.
                          We ask this question too when it comes to dealing with them in the mountains.

                          I've concluded there is no such thing as a rogue commander and any decision to confront is coming from higher up.

                          What your article is implying is with the political commissar there is no need for decision to go up that high.

                          They can decide among themselves whether or not to confront.

                          Autonomous decision making at the unit level and these actions taken can be difficult to comprehend in a larger context because they appear to be at cross purposes.
                          Last edited by Double Edge; 04 Jul 20,, 00:52.

                          Comment


                          • ^ Much like how Paks inferred that tactical nukes rest with battlefield commanders?
                            Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

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                            • That article is implying the local commanders made the decision to use bats in the Jun 15 clash.

                              James Palmer said the same thing coming from a different direction.

                              Comment


                              • South China Sea: What's China's plan for its 'Great Wall of Sand'?

                                Despite all the other issues demanding China's attention this year - the virus, its trade war with the US, Hong Kong's national security law, and a host of economic woes - the South China Sea has been revived in recent months as an arena for serious tensions.

                                With US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo now - for the first time - calling China's territorial claims in the South China Sea unlawful, Alexander Neill examines China's plans to extend its reach in the region.

                                The South China Sea, home to vital shipping lanes, has been a flashpoint for years, with several countries claiming ownership of its small islands and reefs and with it, access to resources.

                                In recent years, China has been increasingly assertive over what it claims are its centuries-old claims to the contested region, and has been rapidly building up its military presence to back up those claims.

                                Former Commander of US Pacific Command, Admiral Harry Harris once referred to this as the "Great Wall of Sand" - a "nine-dash line" creating a protective ring and supply network around Chinese territory at sea, as the wall did on land.

                                But while China and the US have traded increasingly barbed comments over the South China Sea, broadly speaking, they had managed such differences.

                                Despite their trade conflict, the US had avoided taking sides in China's territorial disputes with other countries - other than to demand freedom of movement for its vessels.

                                Then, the Covid-19 pandemic hit.

                                Criticism of China's early handling of the outbreak, led by the US, has enraged China.

                                Many Western leaders appear to be persuaded by Mr Pompeo's argument that China was exploiting the pandemic to double-down on its coercive behaviour in general.

                                And those rising tensions have been playing out in the South China Sea.

                                Military tensions at a worrying time
                                In early April, a Chinese Coast Guard vessel rammed and sank a Vietnamese fishing vessel close to the Paracel Islands, which China and Vietnam claim as theirs.
                                Then, a Malaysian oil exploration project also found its operations disrupted off the coast of Borneo by a Chinese marine survey vessel, the Haiyang Dizhi 8, backed by China's Navy and Coast Guard.

                                Consequently, the USS America, a US Navy amphibious assault ship, joined by an Australian frigate, was deployed to waters nearby.

                                The escalation continued with the deployment of two US Navy guided missile destroyers, USS Bunker Hill and USS Barry to the Paracel and Spratly Islands (known as the Xisha and Nansha in Chinese) respectively.

                                The warships conducted Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) aimed at challenging what the US views as a pattern of China's unlawful claims in international waters.

                                Most recently, China closed off a swathe of sea space to conduct naval exercises in the waters surrounding the Paracel Islands. The US angrily said this violated Chinese commitments to avoid activities exacerbating disputes.

                                Meanwhile, the US Navy deployed not one but two aircraft carrier strike groups - the USS Nimitz and USS Ronald Reagan - for joint operations in the region.

                                In addition to the US Navy fighters conducting carrier operations and the P8-Poseidon Maritime Patrol Aircraft criss-crossing the sea, the US Air Force sent a B-52 strategic bomber for good measure.

                                China's state media reacted with predictable vitriol.

                                The US Navy's surge into the South China Sea increases the risk of an incident between the two rival powers and a rapid escalation in hostility.

                                The situation is particularly dangerous in light of a recent pattern of increasing assertiveness by China over its "core concerns".

                                Its recent use of lethal force on its disputed border with India, and the imposition of the National Security Law on Hong Kong, have prompted many to ask how restrained China is likely to be in its response to these challenges.

                                What is China's South China Sea goal?
                                Beijing views the South China Sea as a crucial part of its maritime territory, not only serving as a bastion for its seaborne nuclear deterrent based on Hainan island but also as a gateway for the Maritime Silk Road, part of China's Belt and Road Initiative.

                                The South China Sea is critical, for example, for the future success of China's Greater Bay Area economic development plan, into which Hong Kong is incorporated.

                                China's plan for populating the South China Sea was launched in 2012 when "Sansha City", the administrative centre for all Chinese-claimed features in the South China Sea on Woody Island in the Paracels, was upgraded from county to prefecture-level status.

                                The government re-settled the small fishing community there into modern dwellings, built a primary school, a bank and a hospital and installed mobile communications. Tourists have been visiting on regularly scheduled cruises to the islands.

                                The second phase of the plan was initiated in April this year, when China created two further county level administrative districts subordinate to Sansha City, including the establishment of Nansha District People's government, headquartered on Fiery Cross Reef and administering all the Chinese claimed features of the Spratly Islands.

                                In the six years since China began reclamation of several reefs and atolls in the Spratlys, satellite and air surveillance has revealed one of the world's greatest feats in maritime engineering and military construction.

                                In addition to the military facilities on the islands - including 3,000m runways, naval berths, hangars, reinforced ammunition bunkers, missile silos and radar sites - images show neatly arranged accommodation blocks, administrative buildings roofed with blue ceramic tiles, hospitals, and even sports complexes on the reclaimed islands, which have become visibly greener.

                                Subi reef is now home to a farm - including a six-acre fruit and vegetable plot pollinated by bees imported from the mainland, a herd of pigs, flocks of poultry and fish ponds.

                                Meanwhile, the China Academy of Sciences established an Oceanographic Research Centre on Mischief Reef in January 2019.

                                China's top hydrologists have announced that the water table on Fiery Cross - once little more than a rock in the sea - has been expanding rapidly and will allow water self-sufficiency within 15 years (link in Chinese).

                                The residents of the island already enjoy 5G mobile data access and availability of fresh fruit and vegetables shipped in refrigerated containers.

                                Imagery also shows large fishing fleets moored in the larger lagoons on Subi and Mischief reef.

                                Perhaps before too long, fishing families could be permanently housed on China's southernmost islands, their children schooled alongside those of party and government officials.

                                An 'irreversibly' Chinese waterway?
                                The most symbolic evidence of China's push into the South China Sea is quite literally set in stone - transplanted from mainland China.

                                In April 2018, 200-tonne commemorative megaliths, erected on each of the three biggest island bases in the Spratly Islands were unveiled amid some secrecy.

                                Quarried from Taishan stone and shipped to the Spratly islands, the monuments resonate with President Xi Jinping's China Dream of national rejuvenation.

                                Mount Taishan is viewed as the most sacred of China's mountains, a symbol of unbroken Chinese civilisation for thousands of years.

                                All of this shows China has moved into a second phase of a calculated plan to make this great strategic waterway of South East Asia an irreversibly Chinese one.
                                The recent US Navy exercises in the South China Sea were aimed at demonstrating US resolve to protect the "freedom of the seas": for the US Navy to operate in and ultimately protect the seaspace across these international waters.

                                Alongside the US Naval manoeuvres, Mr Pompeo's announcement formally stating that China's claims across the region are "completely unlawful" begs the question of what the US is prepared to do next.

                                At a minimum, Mr Pompeo wants to build a diplomatic coalition to demonstrate China's self-isolation, not just with some of the other claimants but also along with bigger powers.

                                The US could very rapidly reduce China's new Nansha district to concrete and coral rubble - but this would entail a war for which neither the US nor China has an appetite.
                                US calls China the new East India Company at sea
                                Lol. It's true.
                                Last edited by Oracle; 15 Jul 20,, 05:00.
                                Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

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