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  • #46
    Originally posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    The simpler explanation is that India can backfill the American role while American assets moved elsewhere. India need not be involved in a Chinese-American conflict. The Americans just wanted to make sure that India and the US share the same interests in the IOR and that the US can count on India to protect her (and therefore, American) interests.
    In what ways can india backfill the American role. Run FON OPS. Piracy & HADR are already being worked on

    Comment


    • #47
      Originally posted by WABs_OOE View Post
      You're thinking way too complex and things out of American and Indian control. The simpler explanation is that India can backfill the American role while American assets moved elsewhere. India need not be involved in a Chinese-American conflict. The Americans just wanted to make sure that India and the US share the same interests in the IOR and that the US can count on India to protect her (and therefore, American) interests.

      Overthinking these things can hurt the brain.
      Sir, what are you thinking? What US interests in the IOR? IN can block PLANs shipping lanes and if oil is the issue here, US is digging its own oil now. What is the scenario where the USN needs INs help, with 11 CBGs.
      Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

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      • #48
        Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
        Forget Afghanistan, the Americans will be out when the time is right. I'm talking push the US out of China's waters.

        Three decades for that ? fine. 2049 will be a big party, if the CCP can last until then
        I don't think even after 2050, the PLAN would be capable enough to push the USN out, unless they have alien technology. You said if the CPC lasts that long, what's going on?

        You meant this? Corruption in China could lead to Soviet-style collapse, graft buster says

        This is for fun, so enjoy - Replace Jesus Christ’s photo with those of Pres Xi, Chinese Christians told

        Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
        This is the problem that people are trying to crack. If there is a conflict how will India react, how will Australia react, how will Japan react. All these three are wild cards. Australia has followed the US into all conflicts so can be counted on. There is no prosperity without security etc. The Japanese also work with the US but are tied at home.

        Only two certain to show up at the party are China & US. For China these three can be spoilers unless persuaded to stay away
        India is not joinging that fight, and our leaders will come up with some kind of a statement. That's it. And for China to persuade India to stay away it has to solve the border issue, stop supporting rebels in NE, and contain its terrorist proxy Pakistan, all of which are unlikely. China is alone, outnumbered and outgunned, but it doesn't seem to mind. So what are they thinking.

        Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
        No nukes, China won't occupy any country and do regime change. What is desired is accession to a China way in the region and further beyond. Asia & Africa for starters becomes China's turf.
        I need to start studying Maoism and practice burning American flags.
        Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

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        • #49
          Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
          Didn't stop China pushing back in the Korean war. This after successful campaigns by the US across the world with plenty of resources & experience. What good did it do

          There should have been no north korea
          Military technology and thinking has long surpassed the Korean War and even back then, it was a very close call. I believe I went into detail about the Korean War and how if Eighth Army just stopped and turned around, they would have destroyed 2 Chinese Field Armies. The Chinese

          Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
          interesting, you are already thinking after the US leaves the area. Rather setting things in place so the US can do just that
          The Americans had a hard enough time to get the Japanese to committe to a supporting role in the defence of Taiwan. Taipei turned around and said, thanks but no thanks.

          Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
          Right now, yes but its a question of exposure. The idea as far as i can tell is for India to work with powers who have a common interest. For all to improve maritime awareness capabilities.

          Malaysian arliner crashes into the ocean and nobody knows where it is ? nothing found, there's some huge holes to be filled there

          Can't find a civvie aircraft that crashed in peacetime, this is not good for security, cannot prevent unpleasant surprises that could build up into a conflict.
          India and the US don't share the same strategic outlook. Hell, as long as Pakistan is an American ally, India and the US will never share the same strategic outlook. For your suggestion to take place, India would have to follow American strategic leadership and that is not going to happen as long as Pakistan is in the picture.

          Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
          In what ways can india backfill the American role. Run FON OPS. Piracy & HADR are already being worked on
          It's really simple. Most of the Naval Operations outside of combat is showing the Flag. Basically, you would be showing an Indian Flag where an American Flag should be.

          Comment


          • #50
            Originally posted by Oracle View Post
            I don't think even after 2050, the PLAN would be capable enough to push the USN out, unless they have alien technology. You said if the CPC lasts that long, what's going on?

            You meant this? Corruption in China could lead to Soviet-style collapse, graft buster says
            A week is a long time in politics. That is in democracies. Still, three decades on who can predict

            Corruption is what Xi did to consolidate power. As the growth rate came down, stomachs went hungry so going after the 'corrupt' aka enemies is the order of the day. Unlike the soviets the Chinese are sitting on trillions and trade with everyone

            Exact opposite going on in Russia. They seem to have found religion and no badmouthing allowed

            India is not joinging that fight, and our leaders will come up with some kind of a statement. That's it. And for China to persuade India to stay away it has to solve the border issue, stop supporting rebels in NE, and contain its terrorist proxy Pakistan, all of which are unlikely. China is alone, outnumbered and outgunned, but it doesn't seem to mind. So what are they thinking.
            Taking over the world. Top power by 2050, able to win wars

            May not join that fight but could support it in the background ? besides if there is a conflict it presents an opportunity to settle the border once and for all whether the CCP likes it or not

            I need to start studying Maoism and practice burning American flags.
            Why ? Chinese have moved on since then. He wants to create a Xi cult like Mao had
            Last edited by Double Edge; 16 Nov 17,, 03:22.

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            • #51
              Originally posted by WABs_OOE View Post
              Military technology and thinking has long surpassed the Korean War and even back then, it was a very close call. I believe I went into detail about the Korean War and how if Eighth Army just stopped and turned around, they would have destroyed 2 Chinese Field Armies. The Chinese
              yes but the power differential between the two was much greater then. Still couldn't win against an insurgent army. Those are the results and we live with them today

              And you're telling me the Koreans and the Taiwanese can challenge China sans the US. They can defend themselves. But to do what you said

              a direct counter-weight to Chinese military and economic influence
              balance them in other words, is going beyond defence

              They might have the firepower but China will get them in the head. Still the japanese believe they can do it. Balance China in cooperation with as many other willing powers. They can do this because the US has their back. The only reason that region ever prospered is because the US underwrote security there for half a century

              Take the US out of the picture and they won't talk as loud

              The Americans had a hard enough time to get the Japanese to committe to a supporting role in the defence of Taiwan. Taipei turned around and said, thanks but no thanks.
              Making noises about independence yet unwilling to work with partners does not make anything said by Taipei credible. India does not trust Taipei

              India and the US don't share the same strategic outlook. Hell, as long as Pakistan is an American ally, India and the US will never share the same strategic outlook. For your suggestion to take place, India would have to follow American strategic leadership and that is not going to happen as long as Pakistan is in the picture.
              The idea is to bypass Pakistan and work with others. In fifteen years time when the power differential is even greater will what Pakistan says even matter

              The US is interested in preventing a conflict from breaking out between the two countries but the world isn't interested in resolving the problem let alone on Pak terms. you're dealing with a mental illness there

              Future isn't looking bright for the Paks on this point

              It's really simple. Most of the Naval Operations outside of combat is showing the Flag. Basically, you would be showing an Indian Flag where an American Flag should be.
              Depends who we're up against. Showing a flag means backed up with force to support that flag. In the IOR there is an interest to do so, beyond will take more capacity building
              Last edited by Double Edge; 16 Nov 17,, 03:45.

              Comment


              • #52
                Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                yes but the power differential between the two was much greater then. Still couldn't win against an insurgent army. Those are the results and we live with them today
                The US was not willing to commit the necessary power to overcome the Chinese. It was a nothing war to them. Korea was a side show. The main theatre of concentration was Europe.

                Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                And you're telling me the Koreans and the Taiwanese can challenge China sans the US. They can defend themselves. But to do what you said balance them in other words, is going beyond defence
                Imagine a Taiwanese-Korean Army on the borders of Vietnam. An army as in 3 corps.

                Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                They might have the firepower but China will get them in the head. Still the japanese believe they can do it. Balance China in cooperation with as many other willing powers. They can do this because the US has their back. The only reason that region ever prospered is because the US underwrote security there for half a century

                Take the US out of the picture and they won't talk as loud
                We're talking about something that won't happen. Combined, the three counties have about the same number of people in uniform as the Chinese. Such a coalition is more than capable of containing the Chinese.

                Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                Making noises about independence yet unwilling to work with partners does not make anything said by Taipei credible. India does not trust Taipei
                You're missing the point. The Taiwanese, the Japanese, and the Koreans all hate each other. And that's the reason why there won't be such a coalition. They hate each other more than they fear the Chinese.

                Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                The idea is to bypass Pakistan and work with others. In fifteen years time when the power differential is even greater will what Pakistan says even matter
                Like it or not, the US has a direct path to Central Asia through Pakistan. That kind of strategic access cannot be wished away by India.

                Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                Depends who we're up against. Showing a flag means backed up with force to support that flag. In the IOR there is an interest to do so, beyond will take more capacity building
                The RN and the RAN are doing it with single destroyer patrols. You don't need to send a carrier battlegroup into the area. You just have to be the biggest boy in the area. A 3 ship task force would suffice.
                Last edited by WABs_OOE; 16 Nov 17,, 04:23.

                Comment


                • #53
                  How China 'played the shrewder card' when dealing with Donald Trump
                  Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

                  Comment


                  • #54
                    Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                    China's growth rate dropped from 10.8 to 6.1 over the last few years

                    Every 1% drop puts 20 million peple out of work.

                    So as a result of the drop there should be 80 million plus out of work now.

                    Xi's moves to consolidate are to preempt any problems that may arise.

                    As far as protests go in China, they are as lively as they've always been, to the tune of 200k per year but the CCP isn't threatened yet
                    Actually the facts dont fit your narritive. Chinas unemployement rate has sat around 4% in the last decade. Much lower than India Uk Usa Australia Nz etc etc.

                    Protests can be made up of a couple of housewives bitching to the street vendor about the quality of his steamed Pork Buns

                    Comment


                    • #55
                      Originally posted by Funtastic View Post
                      Actually the facts dont fit your narritive. Chinas unemployement rate has sat around 4% in the last decade. Much lower than India Uk Usa Australia Nz etc etc.

                      Protests can be made up of a couple of housewives bitching to the street vendor about the quality of his steamed Pork Buns
                      just quoting figures i've often heard about the connection between growth rate and employment in China.

                      If a one percent rise in growth creates 20 million jobs then the opposite applies too, yes ?

                      Comment


                      • #56
                        Originally posted by WABs_OOE View Post
                        The US was not willing to commit the necessary power to overcome the Chinese. It was a nothing war to them. Korea was a side show. The main theatre of concentration was Europe.
                        Bet they've been ruing that decision for a long time. Nobody in Vietnam misses the khmer rouge

                        Imagine a Taiwanese-Korean Army on the borders of Vietnam. An army as in 3 corps.
                        Do i need to study the Vietnam - china war to understand more. Give some pointers

                        You've just added a fourth party to this motley crew now. One that has stood up to China repeatedly and single handedly

                        Originally posted by WABs_OOE View Post
                        We're talking about something that won't happen. Combined, the three counties have about the same number of people in uniform as the Chinese. Such a coalition is more than capable of containing the Chinese.

                        You're missing the point. The Taiwanese, the Japanese, and the Koreans all hate each other. And that's the reason why there won't be such a coalition. They hate each other more than they fear the Chinese.
                        Because it won't happen nobody can imagine it. The blinders are on. China is a big and powerful country, no lesser power or some random ragtag group dare challenge China. This is an image they are actively cultivating. Why not. If people don't think it life is easier for them. Does not work always though

                        So when you throw it in here it sounds incredible. You make a parity of numbers. Notional equivalence.

                        But since it won't happen, we are back to where we began. The US isn't leaving the area, the quad is the next structural element people are figuring out and China is building up the force military as well as economy to push the US out

                        Like it or not, the US has a direct path to Central Asia through Pakistan. That kind of strategic access cannot be wished away by India.
                        Perfectly fine but the US won't fight their battles so where does it leave them. If anything right now the boot seems to be on the other foot. India is already countering Pak narratives and doing so abroad

                        The RN and the RAN are doing it with single destroyer patrols. You don't need to send a carrier battlegroup into the area. You just have to be the biggest boy in the area. A 3 ship task force would suffice.
                        Feasible and there is awareness now for the need to do so. It's the next step up. Let's see how long it takes for India to start flag operations in the area on a regular basis



                        As of a year back this is the state of affairs. India wants ASEAN to make its mind up and invite it. All ten ASEAN heads are guests for republic Day in a couple of months time
                        Last edited by Double Edge; 16 Nov 17,, 20:32.

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                        • #57
                          Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                          Bet they've been ruing that decision for a long time.
                          Everybody outside of MacArthur's HQ and his groupies saw the bigger picture. Stalin loved the fact that Chinese and the North Koreans were bleeding the West of men and material that were not going to Europe. Both the West and the East kept their focus on Europe and rightly so.

                          Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                          Nobody in Vietnam misses the khmer rouge
                          To do the Korean example of that would require the invasion of China herself. MacArthur had planned on using 50 nukes to blast his way into China. 50 nukes that could not be used in Europe. The JCS and Truman wisely said no.

                          Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                          Do i need to study the Vietnam - china war to understand more. Give some pointers

                          You've just added a fourth party to this motley crew now. One that has stood up to China repeatedly and single handedly
                          The point I was trying to make is that checking Chinese expansion means challenging Chinese territorial claims and at times, that means drawing the line in the sand in somebody else's sandbox.

                          Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                          Because it won't happen nobody can imagine it. The blinders are on.
                          No. The US has tried for decades to get this group together. They just hate each other too much. Back in the 1980s when it seemed that North Korea was going to collapse and reunite with South Korea, Deng Xia Peng asked the Americans to stay in Korea in order to prevent a war between Japan and a united Korea.

                          Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                          China is a big and powerful country, no lesser power or some random ragtag group dare challenge China. This is an image they are actively cultivating. Why not. If people don't think it life is easier for them. Does not work always though

                          So when you throw it in here it sounds incredible. You make a parity of numbers. Notional equivalence.

                          But since it won't happen, we are back to where we began. The US isn't leaving the area, the quad is the next structural element people are figuring out and China is building up the force military as well as economy to push the US out
                          The one country who actually is picturing this is China herself and she is doing everything she can to prevent it. It's by no co-incidence that she publically supports Korean and Taiwanese claims in their territorial disputes with Japan.

                          However, I no longer care to predict the future. Some of my predictions were correct, some aren't but back 20 years ago, I could not have imagined the mess we're in today. China and India exploded the bomb. The big boys stared them down and told them to get back into their house or they will be stomped. Today? We're getting ruffed up by North Korea.

                          To say this Coalition won't happen is shooting in the dark. All I can tell you how potent it is and why they're not doing it today. Tomorrow, I don't know. The US might get fed up and tell these guys to get their act together. Or China might actually scare them enough to overcome their mutual hatre of each other.

                          Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                          Perfectly fine but the US won't fight their battles so where does it leave them. If anything right now the boot seems to be on the other foot. India is already countering Pak narratives and doing so abroad
                          The US is still not going to abandon a 600,000+ army that have the Russian belly within its range. That narrative would be extremely difficult for India to swallow.

                          Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                          Feasible and there is awareness now for the need to do so. It's the next step up. Let's see how long it takes for India to start flag operations in the area on a regular basis
                          A lot more feasible than imagining becoming part of an American task force.

                          Comment


                          • #58
                            Human rights repression in China seen worsening under Xi Jinping

                            This is where the West is wrong. Human rights do not count under a Monarchy. The King is always right. Xi is prounounced 'She'?
                            Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

                            Comment


                            • #59
                              Originally posted by Oracle View Post
                              Human rights repression in China seen worsening under Xi Jinping

                              This is where the West is wrong. Human rights do not count under a Monarchy. The King is always right. Xi is prounounced 'She'?
                              I'm going to suggest a phrase to you that would save you a lot of headaches and heartaches.

                              "Their house. Their rules."

                              Comment


                              • #60
                                Originally posted by WABs_OOE View Post
                                China's weapon of choice isn't nukes nor even the AK-47 (or Type what-ever but you get the point). It's the almighty dollar. Taiwan's economy would not survive a China boycott while the Mainland could absorb the hit, although not pleasantly.

                                The situation is very similar to the English Canada-Quebec relationship. Quebec Independence Movement always take a back seat whenever the economy is taking a hit.

                                Losing your job and your life savings over independence is not exactly enticing.
                                The Chinese economy and thus the CCP could not survive a war with the US over Taiwan. The imposition of a blockade by the USN would cripple the global economy and probalby lead to a global depression, but would utterly devastate China. While the PRC is building towards the day where they can threaten the US enough to force a freehand on Taiwan, that day has not yet arrived. The PLAN simply doesn't have the oomph to threaten the USN in the trade routes leading to China and she doesn't have the ASW assets or ADA capabilities to protect her coast and interior from sub launched tomahawks. Killing US carriers, would be an attack on a strategic asset and commit the US to total war without really affecting the US ability to wreck China. Great big coast and an export oriented economy...

                                Right now the US has the strategic edge unless China wants to risk making it a regional conflict and threaten US forces in Afghanistan, Korea and Japan. That raises the risk and cost for a US war, but if the missiles fly at Taiwan...

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