Since the Communist Party’s legitimacy is based in part on a pledge to “unify” China, its hold on the country’s 1.4 billion people could weaken if it allowed Taiwan to become an independent country. And while any invasion even of outlying islands carries the risks of economic sanctions or a destabilizing conflict, threats issued in state-run media allow Beijing to appeal to a domestic audience and deter Taiwan at the same time.
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What would a Taiwan invasion scenario involving conventional weaponry look like?
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Pew Research has come up with Historic High Unfavorable Estimates for China -- https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2...many-countries . Along with the efforts of Pompeo's administration to satanize Chinese international collaboration around the Globe, this tendency actually leaves the Dragon with nothing to loose from showing its authoritarian character once again to the World. Moreover it makes Chinese look weaker, provided they do not demonstrate their authority, although humanitarian aspects and the negative perspective of Donald Trump for the upcoming elections are not to be ignored. Whoever tend to believe that from Washington are ready to start another WW because of Taiwan, the initiated selling of high-tech weaponry to the Taiwanese government seems to refute this. It is more likely the USA try to strengthen their Second Cold War scenario against the Asian Powers with heavier stance of embracing Europe and wherever there are others against them
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Originally posted by m a x View PostIt is more likely the USA try to strengthen their Second Cold War scenario against the Asian Powers with heavier stance of embracing Europe and wherever there are others against them
Germany Joins the ‘Indo-Pacific’ Club | The Diplomat | Sept 03 2020
The German push punctuates the growing mood of distemper toward China throughout Europe, stemming from Beijing’s recent crackdown in Hong Kong, its harsh treatment of the Uyghurs in the Xinjiang region of western China, and the increasingly coercive methods it has used to quell opposition to Chinese policies.
The full-bore diplomatic and state media assault that greeted this week’s visit to Taiwan of Czechia’s Senate President Milos Vystrčil, whom the CCP’s tabloid mouthpiece Global Times denounced as a “political hooligan” who was “trampling on diplomatic civilization,” is likely to undermine China’s attempts at European damage control.
As French President Emanuel Macron declared during a European Council meeting in March last year, “the time of European naiveté [towards China] is over.”
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Given the recent saber-rattling by the PLAAF, it would be interesting to know whether or not the Taiwanese are finally starting to take the possibility of an invasion seriously. And by seriously, I mean begin to spend real money on defense instead of frittering it away on social spending and green initiatives.
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Taiwan More Vulnerable to Missile Attack Than Israel
Experts agree island’s air defenses can’t pull off what Israel’s did
AsiaSentinel, Oct 14, 2024 (Paywall)
Could Taiwan withstand the kind of barrage from the mainland that Israel has faced over recent weeks and survive relatively unscathed? Iran has fired more than 500 drones and missiles at Israel in two massive attacks in April and September without however coming anyway near to causing the scale of damage it had hoped to achieve.
As the overwhelming majority of projectiles were downed by Israel and allied forces, only one person was reported killed and no weapons, aircraft or critical infrastructure were damaged, according to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). The IDF also said that its F-35 stealth fighters intercepted many cruise missiles before they entered Israeli air space, with the air defense system Arrow dealing with most of the ballistic missiles that went through. The next element in the tier, David's Sling, protected against short-range ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones, while the Iron Dome intercepted unguided rockets and drones heading for residential areas…
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Originally posted by DOR View PostTaiwan More Vulnerable to Missile Attack Than Israel
Experts agree island’s air defenses can’t pull off what Israel’s did
AsiaSentinel, Oct 14, 2024 (Paywall)
Could Taiwan withstand the kind of barrage from the mainland that Israel has faced over recent weeks and survive relatively unscathed? Iran has fired more than 500 drones and missiles at Israel in two massive attacks in April and September without however coming anyway near to causing the scale of damage it had hoped to achieve.
As the overwhelming majority of projectiles were downed by Israel and allied forces, only one person was reported killed and no weapons, aircraft or critical infrastructure were damaged, according to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). The IDF also said that its F-35 stealth fighters intercepted many cruise missiles before they entered Israeli air space, with the air defense system Arrow dealing with most of the ballistic missiles that went through. The next element in the tier, David's Sling, protected against short-range ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones, while the Iron Dome intercepted unguided rockets and drones heading for residential areas…
As lay person? And for what it's worth I can see China staging a successful if costly landing. The problem that China has is that even if the US can't intervene in that landing operation (or tries and fails)? The IS still has the capacity initiate a deep water blockade of the Chinese mainland to with China confined to 'controlling' the South China Sea. Any such blockade would effectively sever most of China's trade links with the rest of the world in one stroke. And China's only effective scoutmaster would be to try and challenge the US and it's Allies in a blue water naval conflict in the Eastern Pacific and the choke points near Japan, Korea and the Philippines etc. And that battle, in the foreseeable future? I think it would lose.
So in that scenario we'd see Chinese forces in place on Taiwan if not in full control but the Chinese Navy and its economy bottled up in the SCS. In the long term that the outcome favors the US, Taiwan and of course Taiwan even if China does actually force Taiwan to surrender. My chief question though is if China did manage to force Taiwan to lay down arms would the US Government concede or continue to prosecute the war regardless knowing it had the upper hand in the long term.Last edited by Monash; 15 Oct 24,, 07:49.If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.
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Star Hostage: TSMC, China’s Drive to Conquer Taiwan, and the Race to Win AI Superiority
By: Matthew Brazil, Matthew Gabriel Cazel Brazil
China Brief Volume: 25 Issue: 2
Executive Summary:- Talent flows uncovered between Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company’s (TSMC) operations in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and several sanctioned PRC firms constitute risks to the company’s position at the leading edge of the global chip industry.
- TSMC’s transition to encompass other parts of the value chain, ostensibly to avoid monopoly concerns, exacerbates these risks.
- If TSMC cedes its dominance, the deterrent effect of Taiwan’s “silicon shield” would be greatly reduced. It could also affect Washington’s support for Taiwan.
- The company has begun to diversify by setting up fabrication plants in the United States in an effort that has been encouraged by its main customers, including Western tech giants such as Apple and Nvidia.
https://jamestown.org/program/star-hostage-tsmc-chinas-drive-to-conquer-taiwan-and-the-race-to-win-ai-superiority/
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