The Korean Dilemma

[Officer of Engineers]

Never mind the click bait title, the meat is in Bolton's quote. It shows how dangerously naďve and stupid Donald Trump is.

About the only thing he did right was walk away.

Some history here first. It was Trump who cowed Kim with the threats of war. NK belligeance went from sinking South Korean military vessels and shelling a South Korean village to mere tests. The threat of a KJU war disappearred under Trump.

[TopHatter]

Some history here first. It was Trump who cowed Kim with the threats of war. NK belligeance went from sinking South Korean military vessels and shelling a South Korean village to mere tests. The threat of a KJU war disappearred under Trump.

From what I've read about Mattis during his time as Secretary of Defense, Trump came pretty goddamn near to starting a war with Kim Jong Un.

[Officer of Engineers]

From what I've read about Mattis during his time as Secretary of Defense, Trump came pretty goddamn near to starting a war with Kim Jong Un.

That is right and that is what scared KJU to back down and to the bargining table. It was the first time that North Korea was directly threatened and KJU did everything he could to placate Trump.

[Albany Rifles]

https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/02/polit...ite/index.html

New satellite images reveal North Korea took recent steps to conceal nuclear weapons site

By Zachary Cohen and Kylie Atwood, CNN

Updated 6:00 AM ET, Tue March 2, 2021
New satellite images taken by Maxar show that North Korea sometime in the past year built a structure that may be intended to obscure entrances to an underground facility where nuclear weapons or nuclear weapons components are stored.Washington (CNN)New satellite imagery obtained by CNN reveals North Korea has recently taken steps to conceal a facility US intelligence agencies believe is being used to store nuclear weapons, a move that could add to the growing sense of urgency from critics who argue the Biden administration needs to articulate a clear strategy on how it will deal with Kim Jong Un going forward.

The image, captured by Maxar on February 11 and analyzed by experts at the Middlebury Institute, shows North Korea built new structures at its Yongdoktong site over the course of 2020 -- an effort researchers say is likely intended to obscure a pair of underground tunnel entrances that lead to the facility where nuclear weapons are stored.
"Images released by Maxar show the pair of tunnel entrances as late as December 2019 and a new building-like structure visible by February 2021," according to Jeffrey Lewis, a professor at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, which specializes in open-source intelligence.
Yongdoktong has been previously identified by US intelligence as a suspected North Korean nuclear weapons storage facility and is still believed to be used for that purpose, a US intelligence official told CNN.Tunnel entrances seen on December 5, 2019.
New structure over tunnel entrance on February 11, 2021
The satellite images obtained by CNN reaffirm what has been widely known among US national security officials and experts for years: North Korea continues to actively develop nuclear weapons at sites around the country while taking further steps toward hiding the stockpile it has already accumulated.
Recent construction at the site will certainly catch the attention of US intelligence agencies as they carefully monitor sites suspected to be part of Pyongyang's nuclear weapons program, according to two former intelligence officials and congressional lawmakers.
Lawmakers and key US allies are eagerly awaiting details about President Joe Biden's North Korea policy, which they expect will be announced publicly in the coming weeks when the administration has completed a policy review, according to multiple sources familiar with the internal discussions.
The clear evidence North Korea's nuclear program is continuing adds to the urgency of the situation, with critics arguing that a policy review that goes on for too long risks developments occurring that will further complicate achieving the administration's goal of denuclearization.
"No matter how comical the effort, North Korea continues to upgrade its nuclear weapons facilities and makes efforts to conceal them," Lewis said, referring to the fact that US intelligence agencies have been watching the site for years.
The Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the Pentagon, citing intelligence matters, declined to comment. The State Department did not respond to CNN's request for comment on the new imagery.Biden mulls options as North Korea employs 'deception and denial'


Beyond stressing a commitment to work alongside regional allies, the Biden administration has said little about its plans for engaging with North Korea during its first weeks in office, with top officials only offering vague statements reaffirming the US commitment to "denuclearization" but offering few specifics.
"The President's view is --- without question that North Korea's nuclear ballistic missile and other proliferation related activities constitutes serious threat to the international peace and security of the world and undermine the global non-proliferation regime," said White House spokesperson Jen Psaki last month.
Rep. Andy Kim and other former US officials told CNN that they hope the Biden administration moves quickly to engage with North Korea before they conduct another missile test or take other provocative steps later this year that may make diplomacy more difficult.
"I think there's an opportunity for us to really push on a number of fronts ... and not just have everything live or die based off of denuclearization. I think that if we go down that route again, we will be hit with the same problems that we've had time and time again. I do hope the Biden team takes a different tack this point," Kim, a Democratic member of the House Foreign Affairs and Armed Services committees, told CNN in a recent interview.
Rep. Adam Kinzinger, a Republican member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said he still believes the Biden administration should continue to work towards a "nuclear-free North Korea" but acknowledged there are no easy answers as far as how to pursue that goal.
"Deposing Kim Jong Un is not realistic right now and it shouldn't be our state of policy. Korean reunification is probably not very realistic, so how do we prevent a nuclear war from breaking out or North Korea from using their supposed of nuclear capability as a way for leverage," he told CNN.
Close up view of building over tunnel entrances. February 11, 2021
Close up view of tunnel entrances before shelter. November 16, 2019
The timing of the movements at Yongdoktong is noteworthy but requires some examination because North Korea's actions can never be taken at face value, said a former senior US intelligence official. If North Korea is seeking to speed up engagement with the Biden administration and does not want to use a provocation like a missile test this move could be undertaken to catch the attention of the US.
Former intelligence officials say recent efforts to obscure the view of American spy satellites could be intended to remind the Biden administration that work on these programs continues even as the White House deliberates on a diplomatic path forward.
North Korea's tactic to try to use "deception and denial" is not something new, one former official explained. North Koreans are known to use the tactic to draw US attention to a matter, allow miscalculation, and deny that they are doing it.Biden team looks to increase pressure and use diplomacy


While the details of Biden's plan for North Korea are being developed by the administration, the White House is not counting out the possibility of direct engagement down the line.
Trump broke the mold when it comes to broaching the intractable challenge of North Korea. Instead of working in lockstep with US allies in the region, he prioritized developing a personal bond with Kim Jong Un. The leaders exchanged frequent letters and met in person three times. Yet, despite this unprecedented engagement, North Korea is more dangerous today than it was when Trump took office.
As Biden's national security team begins to develop their North Korea policy, they will face the challenge of shaping a nuanced approach that rejuvenates a commitment to allies, avoids simply reverting back to the pre-Trump North Korea strategy characterized as "strategic patience" during the Obama administration, and can produce results on the ultimate goal of denuclearization.


Secretary of State Tony Blinken said the administration will both consider how to increase pressure on Pyongyang and how to draw them in with diplomacy, adding that nothing can be done without consulting with allies.
"We intend to review the entire approach in policy toward North Korea, because this is a hard problem that has plagued administration after administration after administration and it's a problem that has not gotten better. In fact, it's gotten worst," Blinken said during his confirmation hearing. He added that they will look at options "that can be effective in terms of increasing pressure on North Korea to come to the negotiating table as well as what other diplomatic initiatives may be possible."
Anthony Ruggiero, who previously served as the National Security Council Director for North Korea during the Trump administration, also said he believes the Biden administration can use sanctions as leverage for negotiations.
"Sanctions need to be at a level where it can provide leverage for negotiations. The sanctions toward the end of the Trump administration on North Korea were sporadic at best, and in some cases non-existent, so they do need to spend some time rebuilding some more of the pressure to allow productive negotiations," according to Ruggiero, who is currently a senior fellow at the Washington-based think-tank Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
The Biden administration is also expected to begin publicly speaking out against any future North Korean provocations unlike the approach in the latter part of the Trump administration, current and former administration officials tell CNN.


Provocations from North Korea, which traditionally mark the beginning of every administration, could be delayed due to the pandemic, former US officials told incoming Biden officials during transition meetings. They believe that the pandemic has put North Korea in a delicate position where it cannot afford further sanctions and cannot engage in diplomacy.
But Kim Jong Un hates being out of the spotlight and it is likely that he will want to test the incoming team, making it virtually impossible to predict how the despot will act in the early days of Biden presidency.Some North Korea experts believe that the Biden administration should send a direct signal to North Korea to demonstrate willingness to engage, sooner rather than later.
"It is a moment of opportunity," said Gen. Vincent Brooks, a retired US Army general who commanded United States Forces Korea during the Trump administration. "I hope they will seek communication early on. It may begin through backchannels first but there must be a conduit of communication directly to Kim Jong Un."

[TopHatter]

North Korea unresponsive to behind-the-scenes Biden administration outreach - U.S. official

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - North Korea has not responded to behind-the-scenes diplomatic outreach since mid-February by President Joe Biden’s administration, including to Pyongyang’s mission to the United Nations, a senior Biden administration official told Reuters on Saturday.

The disclosure of the so-far unsuccessful U.S. outreach, which has not been previously reported, raises questions about how Biden will address mounting tensions with Pyongyang over its nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs.

It also adds a new dimension to a visit America’s top diplomat and defense secretary will make next week to South Korea and Japan, where concerns over North Korea’s nuclear arsenal are expected to be high on the agenda.

The senior Biden administration official, speaking on condition of anonymity, offered few details on the diplomatic push. But the official said there had been efforts to reach out to the North Korean government “through several channels starting in mid-February, including in New York.”

“To date, we have not received any response from Pyongyang,” the official said.

North Korea’s mission to the United Nations did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The Biden administration has so far been cautious in publicly describing its approach to North Korea, saying it is carrying out a comprehensive policy review following former President Donald Trump’s unprecedented engagement with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

Trump’s efforts failed to persuade North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons.

The Biden administration official said it appeared there had been no active dialogue between the United States and North Korea for more than a year, including at the end of Trump’s administration, “despite multiple attempts during that time by the United States to engage.”

The U.S. official declined to speculate about how the silence from Pyongyang would impact the Biden administration’s North Korea policy review, which was expected to be completed in the coming weeks.

During his election campaign, Biden described Kim as a “thug” and said he would only meet him “on the condition that he would agree that he would be drawing down his nuclear capacity.”

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has held out the possibility of additional sanctions, in coordination with allies, to press North Korea to denuclearize.

Sanctions have so far failed to convince Kim to give up his nuclear weapons.

Blinken is slated to host the first face-to-face discussions between senior Biden administration and Chinese officials on March 18 in Alaska. The Trump administration accused China of failing to enforce sanctions against North Korea. A confidential U.N. report here found that North Korea maintained and developed its nuclear and ballistic missile programs throughout 2020 in violation of international sanctions, helping fund them with some $300 million stolen through cyber hacks.

The report by independent sanctions monitors said Pyongyang “produced fissile material, maintained nuclear facilities and upgraded its ballistic missile infrastructure” while continuing to seek material and technology for those programs from abroad.
___________

[TopHatter]

North Korea's Kim at critical crossroads decade into rule
SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — Too young. Too weak. Too inexperienced.

Since taking power following his father’s sudden death 10 years ago this week, Kim Jong Un has erased those widespread doubts that greeted his early attempts to extend his family’s brutal dynastic grip over North Korea.

Early predictions about a regency, a collective leadership or a military coup were crushed by an estimated hundreds of executions and purges targeting family members and the old guard. That ruthless consolidation of power, together with a larger-than-life personality seemingly made for carefully packaged TV propaganda, has allowed Kim to make clear that his authority is absolute.

But as North Korea’s first millennial dictator marks a decade in rule this Friday, he may be facing his toughest moment yet, as crushing sanctions, the pandemic and growing economic trouble converge. If Kim can't uphold his public pledge to develop both nukes and his moribund economy, something many experts see as impossible, it could spell trouble for his long-term rule.

The modest economic growth he achieved for several years through trade and market-oriented reforms was followed by a tightening of international sanctions since 2016, when Kim accelerated his pursuit of nuclear weapons and missiles targeting the United States and its Asian allies.

After basking in the global spotlight at summits with former U.S. President Donald Trump in 2018 and 2019, Kim is now stuck at home, grappling with a decaying economy worsened by pandemic-related border closures.

Negotiations with Washington have been deadlocked for more than two years after he failed to win badly needed sanctions relief from Trump. President Joe Biden's administration seems in no hurry to cut a deal unless Kim shows a willingness to wind down his nuclear weapons program, a “treasured sword” he sees as his biggest guarantee of survival.

While still firmly in control, Kim appears increasingly unlikely to achieve his stated goals of simultaneously keeping his nukes and bringing prosperity to his impoverished populace. Kim laid out this goal in his first public speech as leader in early 2012, vowing that North Koreans would “never have to tighten their belts again.”

How Kim handles the economy in the coming years could determine the long-term stability of his rule and possibly the future of his family’s dynasty, said Park Won Gon, a professor of North Korea studies at Seoul’s Ewha Womans University.

“The nuclear weapons program, the economy and the stability of the regime are all interconnected. If the nuclear issue doesn’t get resolved, the economy doesn't get better, and that opens the possibility of disquiet and confusion in North Korea’s society,” Park said.

Kim desperately needs the removal of U.S.-led sanctions to build his economy, which has also been damaged by decades of mismanagement and aggressive military spending.

But meaningful U.S. relief may not come unless Kim takes concrete steps toward denuclearization. Despite his pursuit of summitry, Trump showed no interest in budging on sanctions, which he described as Washington’s main leverage over Pyongyang, and it’s unclear if Kim will ever see another U.S. president as willing to engage with the North as Trump was.

Their diplomacy fell apart after their second summit in February 2019, when the Americans rejected North Korea’s demand for a major removal of sanctions in exchange for dismantling an aging nuclear facility, which would have amounted to a partial surrender of its nuclear capabilities.

The two sides haven’t met publicly since a failed follow-up meeting between working-level officials in October of that year. Two months after that Kim vowed at a domestic political conference to further expand his nuclear arsenal in the face of “gangster-like” U.S. pressure, urging his people to stay resilient in the struggle for economic self-reliance.

But the global COVID-19 crisis has hampered some of Kim’s major economic goals by forcing the country into a self-imposed lockdown that crippled its trade with China, its only major ally and economic lifeline.

South Korea’s spy agency recently told lawmakers that North Korea’s annual trade with China declined by two-thirds to $185 million through September 2021. North Korean officials are also alarmed by food shortages, soaring goods prices and a lack of medicine and other essential supplies that have accelerated the spread of water-borne diseases like typhoid fever, according to lawmakers briefed by the agency.

Talks with the United States are in limbo. The Biden administration, whose pullout from Afghanistan underscored a broader shift in U.S. focus from counterterrorism and so-called rogue states like North Korea and Iran to confronting China, has not offered much more than open-ended talks.

The North has so far rejected the overture, saying Washington must first abandon its “hostile policy,” a term Pyongyang mainly uses to refer to sanctions and U.S.-South Korea military exercises.

“North Korea is not going to surrender its nuclear weapons, no matter what,” said Andrei Lankov, a professor at Seoul’s Kookmin University. “The only topic they are willing to talk about is not the pipe dream of denuclearization but rather issues related to arms control.”

Kim may benefit, however, from the Washington-Beijing confrontation, which increases North Korea’s strategic value to China, Lankov said. China is willing to keep North Korea afloat by expanding food, fuel and other aid, and that reduces pressure on Kim to negotiate with the United States.

“Instead of growth, North Korea will have stagnation, but not an acute crisis,” Lankov said. “For Kim Jong Un and his elite, it’s an acceptable compromise.”

North Korea has been taking aggressive steps to reassert greater state control over the economy amid the country’s pandemic border closure. This rolls back Kim’s earlier reforms, which embraced private investments and allowed more autonomy and market incentives to state enterprises and factories to facilitate domestic production and trade.

There have also been signs that North Korean officials are suppressing the use of U.S. dollars and other foreign currencies in markets, an apparent reflection of worry about depleting foreign currency reserves.

Restoring central control over the economy could also be crucial for mobilizing state resources so that Kim could further expand his nuclear program, which would otherwise be challenging as the economy worsens.

While Kim has suspended the testing of nuclear devices and long-range missiles for three years, he has ramped up testing of shorter-range weapons threatening U.S. allies South Korea and Japan.

“Nukes brought Kim to this mess, but he’s maintaining a contradictory policy of further pushing nukes to get out of it,” said Go Myong-hyun, a senior analyst at Seoul’s Asan Institute for Policy Studies.

“The U.S.-led sanctions regime will persist, and a return to a state-controlled economy was never the answer for North Korea in the past and won’t be the answer now. At some point, Kim will face a difficult choice over how long he will hold on to his nukes, and that could happen relatively soon," Go added.
___________

[Gun Grape]

Its that time of the year again. And she is still "Smoking Hot"

Kim’s sister makes insulting threats to Seoul over sanctions

SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — The powerful sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un attacked South Korea with a string of insults on Thursday for considering new unilateral sanctions against the North, calling its president and his government “idiots” and “a running wild dog gnawing on a bone given by the U.S.”

Kim Yo Jong’s diatribe came two days after South Korea’s Foreign Ministry said it was considering additional sanctions on North Korea over its recent barrage of missile tests. The ministry said it would also consider taking action against alleged cyberattacks by North Korea — believed to be a key new source of funding for its weapons program — if the North conducts a major provocation like a nuclear test.

“I wonder what ‘sanctions’ the South Korean group, no more than a running wild dog gnawing on a bone given by the U.S., impudently will impose on North Korea,” Kim Yo Jong said in a statement carried by state media. “What a spectacle sight!”

She called South Korea’s conservative President Yoon Suk Yeol and his administration “idiots who continue creating the dangerous situation.” She added that South Korea “had not been our target” when Moon Jae-in — Yoon’s liberal predecessor who sought reconciliation with North Korea — was in power. The comment could be seen as an attempt to foster anti-Yoon sentiment in South Korea.

“We warn the impudent and stupid once again that the desperate sanctions and pressure of the U.S. and its South Korean stooges against (North Korea) will add fuel to the latter’s hostility and anger and they will serve as a noose for them,” Kim Yo Jong said.

Kim Yo Jong’s official title is vice department director of the Central Committee of the North’s ruling Workers’ Party. But South Korea’s spy agency says she is the North’s second-most powerful person after her brother and handles relations with South Korea and the United States.

While it’s not the first time Kim Yo Jong has used crude invectives toward South Korea, North Korea is expected to further escalate military tensions on the Korean Peninsula given that she’s in charge of relations with South Korea and wields some influences on the North’s military, said analyst Cheong Seong-Chang at the private Sejong Institute in South Korea.

South Korea quickly shot back at Kim Yo Jong’s insults of Yoon, saying it’s “very deplorable for her to denounce our head of state with rough, substandard words and show no basic forms of etiquette.” Seoul’s Unification Ministry said in a statement that it strongly condemns what it called “her impure attempt to incite antigovernment struggles and shake our system” in South Korea.

Last month, South Korea imposed its own sanctions on 15 North Korean individuals and 16 organizations suspected of involvement in illicit activities to finance North Korea’s nuclear weapons and missile programs. They were Seoul’s first unilateral sanctions on North Korea in five years, but experts say they were largely symbolic because the two Koreas have few financial dealings between them.

But observers say Seoul’s push to coordinate with the United States and others to crack down on North Korea’s alleged illicit cyberactivities could anger North Korea and damage its financing of its weapons programs. Earlier this year, a panel of U.N. experts said in a report that North Korea was stealing hundreds of millions of dollars from financial institutions and cryptocurrency firms and exchanges.

North Korea has been under 11 rounds of United Nations sanctions imposed over its nuclear and missile tests since 2006. But the U.N. Security Council has failed to adopt new sanctions against North Korea over its run of banned ballistic missile launches this year because of the opposition of China and Russia, two veto-wielding members of the council that are locked in confrontations with the United States.

South Korea’s Foreign Ministry said Thursday that North Korea is turning to cybercrime and covert ship-to-ship transfers of unauthorized goods as a way to evade those U.N. sanctions. Spokesperson Lim Soosuk said Kim Yo Jong’s strong reaction to the South’s review of possible unilateral sanctions proves that North Korea cares deeply about such steps. He said South Korea will consider having North Korea face consequences for the illicit ship-to-ship transfers if it conducts a nuclear test, which would be its first in five years.

North Korea has repeatedly said the U.N. sanctions, along with regular American military drills with South Korea, are proof of U.S. hostility toward the North. U.S.-led diplomacy over North Korea’s nuclear program collapsed in early 2019 due to differences over how much sanctions relief North Korea should receive in return for limited denuclearization steps.

Kim Yo Jong warned Tuesday that the United States would face “a more fatal security crisis” as it pushes for U.N. condemnation of the North’s recent test of an intercontinental ballistic missile potentially capable of striking all of the mainland U.S. She compared the United States to “a barking dog seized with fear.”

North Korea is notorious for colorful, crude personal attacks on South Korean and U.S. leaders. It called previous South Korean Presidents Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye “a rat” and “a prostitute” respectively, while describing former U.S. President Donald Trump as “a mentally deranged U.S. dotard.” In March 2021 when Moon was still in office, Kim Yo Jong called him “a parrot raised by America.”

[Officer of Engineers]

Its that time of the year again. And she is still "Smoking Hot"

She still scares me.

[tbm3fan]

Its that time of the year again. And she is still "Smoking Hot"

What!!! Have you had cataract surgery yet? It's time...

[Gun Grape]

What!!! Have you had cataract surgery yet? It's time...

I do have my first eye appt since Hurricane Michael next month.

But, its that old Jarhead in me. Who could stay away from a woman that dangerous?

[Monash]

I do have my first eye appt since Hurricane Michael next month.

But, its that old Jarhead in me. Who could stay away from a woman that dangerous?

Anyone with common sense!

Oh, sorry I forgot were a marine. Forget I said anything.

[Monash]

Seriously though, what man in his right mind would want to be with her? You couldn't even approach her and ask if she would like to 'go out' without risking being tied to an anti-aircraft gun the next day after hours of beatings (if the answer was no). And if she takes a liking to you? Congrats you have no say in the matter after that. And after that? The first time you leave the toilet seat up its off to a labor camp (if your lucky)!

[Amled]

...not to forget when she tells you that she wants you to meet her family!

[Gun Grape]

Seriously though, what man in his right mind would want to be with her? You couldn't even approach her and ask if she would like to 'go out' without risking being tied to an anti-aircraft gun the next day after hours of beatings (if the answer was no). And if she takes a liking to you? Congrats you have no say in the matter after that. And after that? The first time you leave the toilet seat up its off to a labor camp (if your lucky)!

Think of the scene in Mr and Mrs Smith where they come home, try really hard to kill each other then have wild sex.

Supposedly she is married, to the son of NKs #2 man Choe Ryong-hae and has 2 children.

I could tame her

[Monash]

Think of the scene in Mr and Mrs Smith where they come home, try really hard to kill each other then have wild sex.

Supposedly she is married, to the son of NKs #2 man Choe Ryong-hae and has 2 children.

I could tame her

Oh well I admire your optimism at least.