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The Korean Dilemma

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  • So anyway ...Did Trump ask Kim to hand over NK nuclear capability? seems a little premature if he did. The response must have been part of the plan, if not why run ahead when so many other things could have been achieved on the slowly slowly route.

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    • Originally posted by Freyr View Post
      So anyway ...Did Trump ask Kim to hand over NK nuclear capability? seems a little premature if he did. The response must have been part of the plan, if not why run ahead when so many other things could have been achieved on the slowly slowly route.
      Because the slowly slowly route was tried by three different administrations and failed. Bottom up did not work so Trump's idea was to try Top down. It's a work in progress presently in setback maybe if he gets another term he can try some more.

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      • No I don't think so ..Its China's problem, let them deal with it ..then you will get results... ;)

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        • One may ask, what the hell is the issue? The US, other than the hairbrained Trump, shouldn't be concerned in the least about N.K. now having nukes and a delivery system. China has N.K.'s back and always has.

          Kim really doesn't have anything to negotiate with that he can trade with the US for relief. Or in other words, the US isn't going to give Kim dick all in exchange for his nuke capability.

          This is all likely just political spin that's intended to make Trump look like he's somehow important in US foreign affairs. He's not!

          The powers that be in the US are not going to allow Trump to trade away anything of consequence away in exchange for Kim's nukes.

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          • Originally posted by montgomery View Post
            The powers that be in the US are not going to allow Trump to trade away anything of consequence away in exchange for Kim's nukes.
            You make it sound like he will but the man walked away

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            • Originally posted by montgomery View Post
              The powers that be in the US are not going to allow Trump to trade away anything of consequence away in exchange for Kim's nukes.
              You make it sound like Trump was ready to give away the family silver but the man did walk away

              Trump waits for denuke before lifting sanctions. Kim waits for sanctions to be lifted before denuke.

              This is called a deadlock.

              It means each side is waiting for the other to do something first before they do something.
              Last edited by Double Edge; 07 Apr 19,, 03:55.

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              • Originally posted by montgomery View Post
                One may ask, what the hell is the issue?.
                US sanctions and Kims missile circus?

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                • Someone has not even bothered to skim 58 pages of detailed analysis backed by various open source documentation, including a lot from the Chinese themselves, and then spout their own idiotic views that has ZERO bearing on reality. Talking about MAD and China got NKorea's back is just plain pulling fantasies out of a cow's ass.

                  Everyone has the same goal. To keep the NKoreans in NKorea. That includes KJU. The NKoreans sees KJU as a Mao Tse-Tung type god. In order to do that, KJU needs NKoreans.

                  Let's start with the facts. The Nkoreans had 6 tests. The NKoreans had 1, maybe 2, successful fission test (10-15 kt) range. The last test, boosted fission, depending on who you talked to is 48-250 kt. Based on the history of the test site, my calculation was around 30-35 kts but that's neither here nor there.

                  NKorean rockets, however, have even a less stellar record, achieving 18-22% successful tests. And there has been zero tests on nuclear bomb fuses. Their last ICBM test was a big boom in the sky. In short, the US doesn't have anything to worry about a NKorean nuke landing on any American city anytime soon.

                  Seoul and Tokyo and maybe even Taipei would have more to worry about BUT that is IF NKorean rockets have a chance to lift off the ground. NKorean nukes are kept in component pieces and not mounted on rockets. That means that KJU has to personally order the nukes be put together and put on rockets. Smart on his part. Any NKorean Colonel with a readied nuke could be tempted to take KJU out. However that also means that SKoreans F16s would be flying and bombing all his launch sites long before KJU could get his rockets readied with nukes.

                  So, why does KJU want nukes? Easy. To stay in power. A man who showcased machine-gunning his ex-girlfriend and feeding his uncle to the dogs needs to cower his enemies which includes his family. His army is underfed, undertrained, and underarmed. Yeah, he's a god but starving and poor worshippers would be extremely tempted by another god: money. China and SKorea have it. His people don't. Starve your people long enough and they will turn against you as it almost happened to his father, KJI. KJI saw NKorea through famines. However, KJU is not KJI. KJU does not have the power base his father did and had to resort to machine-gunning ex-girlfriends and feeding uncles to dogs to showcase his power.

                  Now, to China. China wants to keep NKoreans in North Korea. That's it. Nothing else. They could not care less about KJU. Don't think so? KJU's uncle, the one who was fed to the dogs, was supported by the Chinese. The Chinese-NKorean border is a mess. NKorean mafias control smuggling, currency exchange, drug trade, people and sexual trafficing, counterfeit Chinese currency. In the event of any war with the US/SKorea, the refugees would be fleeing north into China. The mess that is there right now would be multiply a 100 fold. The Chinese placed 2 Group Armies on the border in anticipation for such an event. And this is the part that proves that China DOES NOT WANT TO HAVE NKorea's back. Those 2 armies are tasked with INVADING NKorea. What better way to keep the refugees south than by opening a war front and then driving to the NKorean Capital.

                  Now SKorea and the US. The military dominance enjoyed by these two allies CANNOT be overstated. The NKoreans have zero chance. The SKoreans could easily destroy the NKorean military but they could also choose just to repulse any attack without driving north and let KJU deal with the fallout from losing a war he started, multiplying his internal enemies a 100 fold. The nukes, however, would force the SKoreans to drive north to take all the nukes and occupy all the launch sites.

                  So, from these scenarios, there is zero chance of NKorea winning any war, nukes or no nukes. China, SKorea/US are NOT afraid of a war with NKorea. They're prepared for it. What they are afraid of is WINNING a war with NKorea and get stuck with the bill of fixing NKorea. SKorea looking at German unification wants no part of that bill. China looking at the amount of money the US spent on Iraq balk at that bill.

                  From this, anyone can see that KJU is using his nukes as extortion, forcing China, SKorea, US, and Japan to prop his regieme. The nukes are not meant for miliitary usage. They're not readied. They're not training. They're not organized into nuclear weapons units. They're not even finish making all the parts like bomb fuses and reliable rockets.

                  As for MAD with NKorea or China, idiotic premis with zero basis in reality or military doctrine. NKorean nukes are extortions. The Chinese themselves do not believe they can destroy the US. They even say so in their official doctrines.

                  The links are all over this thread. What I wrote is not what I believe. These are facts on the ground and statements made by Chinese and NKorean offical machines as well as retired Chinese military Generals and high ranking NKorean defectors. To state that anyone in Canada knows better what these guys say they are thinking is stating obvious ignorance to the hilt.
                  Chimo

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                  • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                    You make it sound like Trump was ready to give away the family silver but the man did walk away
                    I'm not quite sure what you mean with that remark. Are you saying that I make it sound like Kim walked away? I think that your meaning is significant so can you explain?

                    Trump waits for denuke before lifting sanctions. Kim waits for sanctions to be lifted before denuke.
                    What I'm saying is that lifting sanctions is very important to Kim, but the US successfully convincing Kim to give up his nukes is of no strategic importance in the least. The value would be completely of political importance to Trump.

                    I don't believe that Russia really cares all that much about Israel's nukes. They could be considered not much more than the US nuclear proliferation throughout Europe and Asia. None of these nukes are for use in a war against Russia. They're only meant as a deterrent on both sides.

                    This is called a deadlock.
                    No, I disagree. a deadlock was the situation before Trump and Kim began negotiations.

                    It means each side is waiting for the other to do something first before they do something.
                    Yes, both sides are waiting and one or the other side will do something. That's the opposite of a deadlock.

                    Understand my premise to be that N.K. doesn't need nuclear weapons, other than as a deterrent. And I don't believe the US/S.Korea is going to venture across the Korea's border and start a hot war. China has N.K.'s back now and a reunited Korea is totally in China's best interests. On terms that are suitable to China.

                    I would imagine that Trump could be tricked into lifting sanctions on N.K. in exchange for Kim's nukes. But I don't believe the US will ever fall for that sort of ruse. I would liken it to Israel giving up it's nukes in exchange for complete UNSC guarantee of it's security within it's designated and legal borders.

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                    • Sorry to see the poll closed. I would have chosen 'appeasement ............'

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                      • Originally posted by montgomery View Post
                        I'm not quite sure what you mean with that remark. Are you saying that I make it sound like Kim walked away? I think that your meaning is significant so can you explain?
                        Your comment

                        The powers that be in the US are not going to allow Trump to trade away anything of consequence away in exchange for Kim's nukes.
                        implying Trump does not have a clue what and what not to trade with here.

                        Is that the way to interpret your comment ?

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                        • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                          Your comment



                          implying Trump does not have a clue what and what not to trade with here.

                          Is that the way to interpret your comment ?
                          Yes, that's correct. I think that Trump is now under control and is being allowed to act as a political figurehead to please his lowlife audience.

                          Double Edge, it's been a romp talking to you and I respect that fact that you are one of the few who proved even capable of so doing. Full marks from me on that!

                          But Oracle has just started soil his panties over hearing my opinions and is likely heading for cover in the old 'get him banned' routine. So we'll see soon but frankly I didn't expect to last as long as I have.

                          Seriously, it's been a pleasure and a learning experience for my university's 1st. year political science class as well as my own!

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                          • Originally posted by montgomery View Post
                            Yes, that's correct. I think that Trump is now under control and is being allowed to act as a political figurehead to please his lowlife audience.
                            I don't know to what extent Trump is under control is true. He plays to his base sure. But the primary problem with Trump i have perceived is he is NOT under control and by that i mean from the establishment. In fact he's anti-establishment and does not have any qualms telling them where to go.

                            What does ultimately restrain Trump are the checks & balances in the system. I've always taken this as a given.
                            Last edited by Double Edge; 07 Apr 19,, 22:51.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                              I don't know to what extent Trump is under control is true. He plays to his base sure. But the primary problem with Trump i have perceived is he is NOT under control and by that i mean from the establishment. In fact he's anti-establishment and does not have any qualms telling them where to go.

                              What does ultimately restrain Trump are the checks & balances in the system. I've always taken this as a given.
                              Trump is completely of the establishment, any idiot can see that. He's playing the crowd..Its all just pure theatre to entertain the masses and distract from the real issues. You'll find that while he's been talking outrageous BS he's also been playing around with tax break etc everything to fix his clique!

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                              • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                                I don't know to what extent Trump is under control is true. He plays to his base sure. But the primary problem with Trump i have perceived is he is NOT under control and by that i mean from the establishment. In fact he's anti-establishment and does not have any qualms telling them where to go.

                                What does ultimately restrain Trump are the checks & balances in the system. I've always taken this as a given.
                                Your disagreement with Freyr on Trump being establishment/ anti-establishment, seems to me to be a differing understanding of the meaning of establishment.

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