The Korean Dilemma

[DOR]

The Kim has declared the latest 5-Year Plan an utter failure. Unprecedented to even question that all targets were exceeded. Something is going on...

[Albany Rifles]

The tanks would most certainly be a no show. They're not production models to say the least. No ERA hook rings, The wheeled 105s is a disaster waiting to happen. Several countries, including Russia, tried it. The chasis can't take it unless you use a gun that can't kill tanks but then, what's the point?

Gonna roll like a sausage when they fire....

[Officer of Engineers]

The tanks would most certainly be a no show. They're not production models to say the least. No ERA hook rings, The wheeled 105s is a disaster waiting to happen. Several countries, including Russia, tried it. The chasis can't take it unless you use a gun that can't kill tanks but then, what's the point?

[Monash]

I wonder what these parades do to their annual fuel allocations. Or maybe their fuel allocations exist mostly for these parades.

That should all be clear in what, 3 to 6 months? Or about as long as it takes for US and SK reconnaissance assets to get some happy snaps of all that new gear being run through its paces in field exercises. Personally my money is on all or most of it being a 'no show'. Or if it does turn up it does so in numbers so small as to be meaningless (single digits?).

If I had to guess I'd say a lot of the equipment was fake. Remember the infamous Iranian 'stealth fighter' they put on show a few years ago now? The one with the stick on flight control panels? More of the same.

[TopHatter]

I wonder what these parades do to their annual fuel allocations. Or maybe their fuel allocations exist mostly for these parades.

[Officer of Engineers]

Well the wheeled artillery carrier looks like a reworked BTR-90 with box armor added to the flanks and a reworked front end. And with no visible spades that thing is going to rock and roll and lose lay when firing. It may look like a Stryker but....meh. I am sure it does not have the integrated battle management systems Stryker units have.

It actually goes to show the NKs don't know crap and are just copiers. The US abandonned the LAV-105 and even the LAV-90 because the chasis can't handle it. That intel is open sourced. Why the hell would you copy a failed project?

Open source says the new tanks are mock ups for POC. I would agree. There are no hook rings for ERA. You're right. Something is just weird about the turret.

[TopHatter]

Joe, For your viewing pleasure. North Korean military defectors giving their impressions of the West

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCqD...0W9tt-Q/videos

Ah yes, I've seen these fellows videos before, very entertaining!

[Albany Rifles]

Well, all the nukes are. No one is stupid enough to put real rockets in a parade where a someone can damage it inadvertantly. The wheeled 105s are a surprised to me, They look extremely top heavy, prone to tipping when firing on the move.

The gun on the tank look rather small.

What is really surprising is that we still have not seen a large scale military exercise (at least brigade level). They need that more than these dog-and-pony shows.

Well the wheeled artillery carrier looks like a reworked BTR-90 with box armor added to the flanks and a reworked front end. And with no visible spades that thing is going to rock and roll and lose lay when firing. It may look like a Stryker but....meh. I am sure it does not have the integrated battle management systems Stryker units have.

As for the tanks...Colonel, I think you are right. Those look like standard 115mm tank guns as on the T-62. Not sure about that turret...something just doesn't look right.

I winder how many they have and how well maintained they are....

[Officer of Engineers]

Joe, For your viewing pleasure. North Korean military defectors giving their impressions of the West

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCqD...0W9tt-Q/videos

[Officer of Engineers]

For the Colonel: Sir, how much of this new hardware would you estimate to consist of fiberglass and thin-gauge sheet metal mockups?

Well, all the nukes are. No one is stupid enough to put real rockets in a parade where a someone can damage it inadvertantly. The wheeled 105s are a surprised to me, They look extremely top heavy, prone to tipping when firing on the move.

The gun on the tank look rather small.

What is really surprising is that we still have not seen a large scale military exercise (at least brigade level). They need that more than these dog-and-pony shows.

[TopHatter]

North Korea is showing off more than just massive missiles, but its new military hardware may be less than meets the eye


A new North Korean intercontinental ballistic missile on parade, October 10, 2020. Screenshot from KCTV broadcast

In October, North Korea unveiled new military hardware in a parade marking the 75th anniversary of the Workers' Party of Korea.

The biggest attention-getters were, unsurprisingly, the missiles, especially the Pukguksong-4 submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM), and the Hwasong-16, which, if real, would be the largest liquid-fueled and road-mobile missile ever made.

But before those missiles appeared at the end of the parade, North Korea's impressive modernization of its conventional forces was on full display.

North Korea Pukguksong-4 submarine-launched ballistic missile on parade, October 10, 2020. KCNA

Soldiers were seen wearing modern uniforms with new camouflage patterns, ballistic helmets, vests, and even touch-screen devices. They were also seen parading in full nuclear, biological, and chemical gear for the first time. New vehicles designed almost entirely from scratch also debuted.

Chun In-bum, a former lieutenant general in the South Korean army, described the parade as "literally a 'new look' for the North Korean People's Army (KPA) in almost every way."

The parade undoubtedly shows that North Korea's commitment to military modernization is bearing fruit, but it remains unclear just how far that modernization has gone.

New armored vehicles


North Korean armored combat vehicles mounted with what appears to be a howitzer, during a parade on October 10, 2020. KCNA

Aside from the missiles, the new armored vehicles received the most attention.

North Korea's armored force has long consisted of old Soviet models or slightly modified domestic copies. But a completely new armored combat vehicle and a new tank show that North Korea's armored force is headed in a new direction.

While little is definitively known about these vehicles, observers noted a number of things based on their appearance. The 8 x 8 wheeled armored combat vehicle, for instance, looks almost exactly like the US Army's Stryker ICV.

Two variants were shown: One armed with five anti-tank guided missile launchers that are likely copies of the Russian 9M133 Kornet, and another armed with a specially designed turret that appears to house a gun based on the D-30 122 mm howitzer, giving it a similar appearance to the M1128 Mobile Gun System.
North Korea main battle tanks on parade, October 10, 2020. KCNA
Both vehicles are likely intended to support anti-tank and fire-support operations, and help the KPA become more maneuverable in a similar way to the US Army's brigade combat teams.

The new tank is considerably more advanced than previous North Korean models. Its chassis looks similar to that of Russia's T-14 Armata, and the turret is reminiscent of the US's M1 Abrams. It also appears to have a number of new technologies, like composite armor.

Tubular launchers reminiscent of Russia's Afghanit active protection system (APS) appear to be mounted on the turret, meaning the tank could intercept incoming projectiles. The lack of infrared sights suggests the tank may have a thermal sight - a major improvement for North Korean tanks.

There also appeared to be smoke launchers, laser warning receivers, and crosswind sensors. Two side-mounted anti-tank missile launchers were also present on the turret of the tanks, which were strangely painted in a desert-camouflage scheme.

Accelerated modernization


North Korean multiple launch rocket systems on parade, October 10, 2020. KCNA

There were a number of other new systems in the parade as well.

Generals and senior officers were driven around in what looked like mine-resistant ambush protected (MRAP) vehicles. New 155 mm self-propelled guns were rolled out, as were new armored multiple launch rocket systems and a new anti-air defense and radar comparable to Russia's TOR system, which fills a gap in North Korean air defenses.

The parade was the latest indication that Kim Jong Un is accelerating North Korea's military modernization efforts, a trend that has been evident with its nuclear weapons and missiles.

"Kim Jong Un was able to achieve this," Dr. Sue Mi Terry, a senior fellow and Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said of the efforts.

"Some people really underestimated him when he came into power," Terry told Insider. "But at the end of the day, all this modernization took place under him."

Kim has made strengthening his country's military his top priority and wants to prove that despite international pressure and tight sanctions, North Korea is capable of fielding a strong force.

"They want to show that since Singapore they've been making progress," Terry said, referring to Kim's 2018 meeting with President Donald Trump. "That's the main message, that they're not going to stop."
'A Potemkin parade'


North Korea's new intercontinental ballistic missile. Screenshot from KCTV broadcast

As impressive as the new hardware is, there is reason to believe that the parade may have been a display of systems and weapons that North Korea may not actually have, at least not yet.

"Every parade is a Potemkin parade in the sense that North Korea always wants to hype up what they have," Terry said.

For example, despite the new tank's impressive electronics, none of the boxes containing the optics were open, which means no one can be sure what is inside them.

Additionally, many of the systems have not been seen in tests or military exercises, which means they could just be mockups - especially the Pukguksong-4 and Hwasong-16 missiles. This is also the case for North Korea's ballistic-missile submarines, the Gorae-class and Sinpo-C-class.

Finally, North Korea simply may not have the resources to build and maintain such a large conventional force.

North Korea troops celebrate the 75th anniversary of the founding of the ruling Workers' Party of Korea on October 10, 2020. KCNA via REUTERS

"I sincerely doubt that much of that stuff is seriously propagated among the North Korean forces," said Dr. Bruce Bennett, a senior defense analyst at the RAND Corporation.

North Korea can't fund its nuclear and conventional ambitions and the economy its elites desire, Bennet told Insider. "The money is just not there."

Despite the hype, it's clear that military modernization has "made some kind of progress," Terry said, but it's likely that only certain specialized units have benefited from it.

"I think what we saw in the parade was really very selective modernization," Bennett said. "Take those [infantry] soldiers that we saw. I'll bet they're almost all special forces."

North Korea's Special Operations Force, one of the KPA's five branches, accounts for only 200,000 of the KPA's nearly 1.3 million active-duty personnel, but it is expected to have a primary role in a conflict.

Nuclear leverage


The Hwasong-15 intercontinental ballistic missile before a test, in an undated photo released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency, November 30, 2017. Reuters

While the KPA's conventional military modernization is impressive, there is little doubt it remains qualitatively inferior to South Korea's military and no doubt it is inferior to the US military.

But North Korea's real power is its nuclear arsenal. Pyongyang has made clear that it has no reservations about its tactical deployment, meaning it'd likely be front and center in any combat scenario.

With an arsenal believed to be between 30 and 40 warheads, North Korea can use those weapons to destroy important infrastructure like airfields, military bases, and ports, preventing reinforcement and resupply efforts.

"The North Korean approach could impair the South Korean air capability. It could impair our deployment capability," Bennet said. "Then all of the sudden, their conventional capabilities, even if they're only very selectively modernized, might make a big difference. With [North Korea's] special forces out there with that kind of equipment, that gets a little daunting for South Korea."

That approach would most likely result in North Korea's destruction, but being able to do it gives Kim "tremendous coercive capability against the South," Bennet said.

The KPA's evident modernization, combined with Pyongyang's growing nuclear and missile arsenal, put Kim in a position to assert himself and limit the US's leverage in future negotiations.

"Kim Jong-un is a very different kind of leader," Terry said. "I think it's better for us to not underestimate him."
_________

For the Colonel: Sir, how much of this new hardware would you estimate to consist of fiberglass and thin-gauge sheet metal mockups?

[Officer of Engineers]

Weakness from Washington and Seoul Has Emboldened North Korea
After years of “friendship,” “love letters,” and “trust,” the Kim regime is as potent as ever.

Potent? COVID-19 has wrecked KJU far more than any American air wing could have ever done.He's looking at survival, not whatever effects "love letters" got him.

[Oracle]

^ Glad you posted it. The headline was/is exactly my feeling. Authoritarian regimes should not have the tools to murder millions of innocents, even in their thoughts.

[TopHatter]

Weakness from Washington and Seoul Has Emboldened North Korea
After years of “friendship,” “love letters,” and “trust,” the Kim regime is as potent as ever.

No matter how many illegal missile tests North Korea conducts, how bellicose the Dear Leader is in his threats, or how many South Korean citizens his administration murders, South Korean President Moon Jae-in will always reach back with open arms begging for Kim Jong-un’s embrace. And Donald Trump has gone along with him.

The Moon administration’s weakness and naïveté, combined with Trump’s foreign policy ignorance and sympathies with dictators, presents a threat to Northeast Asian security and to America’s national interest.

Throughout Moon’s political career, he has been credulous towards North Korean leadership and their empty words about “peace.” As a “human rights lawyer,” he was a member of Minbyun (Lawyers for a Democratic Society), a progressive law group that has utterly ignored human rights abuses in North Korea and at times harassed North Korean refugees residing in South Korea. As a political strategist, he served as campaign manager for Roh Moo-hyun, the leftist successor to the Sunshine Policy who rode to power in 2003 on a wave of soft anti-American sentiment. Now as president, he has appointed North Korea sympathizers to policy positions and constantly downplays North Korean aggression. Moon and Korean liberals in general have also been more antagonistic towards the democratic Japan and softer towards an increasingly aggressive China than the previous conservative president.

Moon’s actions in 2020 are illustrative. In March, North Korea conducted four missile launches in violation of UN resolutions. Yet after the first missile test, Moon’s communications secretary praised Kim Jong-un for sending a letter that “showed his constant friendship and trust toward Moon.”

In May, a North Korea soldier fired bullets that hit a South Korean guard post. Moon was still trying to get the Panmunjom Declaration, the agreement Moon and Kim signed agreeing to cooperate on an official end to the Korean War, ratified by Korea’s National Assembly. After North Korea blew up the joint liaison office, Moon appeared to be more disappointed that it stifled his plans for easing sanctions on North Korea than that it was an unprecedented escalation.

Now, in the most recent and most brazen example, President Moon called for an official end to the Korean War at the UN one day after a South Korean fisheries official had been executed and had his body burned by North Korea.

The South Korean president’s weakness toward the abusive communist regime to its north isn’t concerning just for the 76 million Koreans on the peninsula. It’s also concerning for the United States as it puts regional security in jeopardy.

North Korean leadership is emboldened by South Korea’s appeasement. They know they can get away with anything. They have found that by pairing violent actions with personal letters and shallow apologies, the Moon administration has something reassuring to wave in front of the public. North Korea is thus able to continue developing its missile capabilities, which could be aimed at U.S. troops in Korea or Japan, with little resistance.

In line with Moon’s present foreign policy, the latest South Korean defense white paper has removed the mention of North Korea as an “enemy.” This is a serious underestimation of the threat posed by the Kim regime.

Moon’s administration has pulled the United States along on its failed detente policy. The U.S. made the decision to meet with Kim Jong-un at Moon’s insistence, but the U.S. has nothing to show for two years of unproductive talks but propaganda images legitimizing Kim’s regime and reduced Chinese pressure on the North.

To be sure, the United States never should have followed Moon as closely as Trump did. Trump rashly announced he was willing to meet with Kim with no preconditions after being told by Moon’s national security advisor Chung Eui Yong at an impromptu White House meeting in March 2018 that Kim wanted to meet. Chung was representing Moon’s desires, and then-National Security Advisor H. R. McMaster explicitly warned Trump against making such a haphazard decision, one which contradicted the administration’s maximum pressure policy. But nonetheless, Trump directed Chung to make the announcement to the White House press that the U.S. was willing to meet.

For Trump to make major foreign policy decisions on the basis of what he is told by foreign officials compromises U.S. security. Chung Eui Yong has been criticizedby The Korea Herald for being soft on North Korea. When North Korea conducted illegal missile tests in violation of UN resolutions, Chung dismissed them, saying, “I don’t see missile capabilities now being developed by North Korea as a grave threat to our national security.”

Some of Moon’s other appointees have worrying histories of supporting socialism and sympathizing with North Korea. His first chief of staff and current Special Advisor for Foreign Affairs Im Jong-seok was convicted of organizing a propaganda trip to Pyongyang in 1989 where radical South Korean student activists met Kim Il-sung. Former Justice Minister Cho Kuk, a “Gangnam socialist” (the Korean analogue of a limousine liberal), was a former member of the Socialist Labour League. North Korea’s flagship state-run newspaper defended him against conservative criticism before he resigned last year.

Moon hails from a progressive movement tinged with socialism that has been pursuing “decolonization”—by which they mean getting rid of American troops and influence from the peninsula. His instance on an end-of-war declaration and his push for “unification” would move in that direction.

Declaring a premature end to the war, however, could undermine the legitimacy of the United Nations Command and U.S. troops remaining on the peninsula . Should Korea be “unified” in a manner that does not displace the illegitimate Kim regime, human rights in South Korea could disappear.

Even if Korea were to be unified entirely on ROK terms, it is unclear what that might mean for the future of U.S. troops in Korea. China would certainly demand that U.S. troops withdraw, and without the presence of North Korea staring down the Republic, it is not clear what rationale the U.S. would rely on to maintain its military presence, nor whether broad support for U.S. troops would remain within the Korean public.

In the face of an assertive China and a stubborn North Korea, a strong U.S. presence in Northeast Asia is as important as ever—and will remain so after the election. Moon’s and Trump’s weaknesses put American security at risk. President Biden will have to contend with the mess their failed diplomatic groveling to Kim has created.
_________

[TopHatter]

N. Korea fires weapons after threatening 'momentous' action
SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — North Korea fired three short-range projectiles off its east coast on Monday, South Korea’s military said, two days after the North threatened to take “momentous” action to protest outside condemnation over its earlier live-fire exercises.

Seoul’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said the multiple kinds of projectiles fired from the eastern coastal town of Sondok flew as far as 200 kilometers (125 miles) at a maximum altitude of 50 kilometers (30 miles) before landing in the waters between the Korean Peninsula and Japan.

A JCS statement said South Korea expressed "strong regret” over the launches that it said violate a past inter-Korean agreement aimed at lowering military animosities. South Korea's national security director, defense minister and spy chief held an emergency video conference and agreed the North Korean action were not helpful to efforts to establish a peace on the Korean Peninsula, according to South Korea's presidential Blue House.

Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga said North Korea fired suspected ballistic missiles. He said the multiple North Korean projectiles traveled 100 to 200 kilometers (62 to 125 miles) but none landed inside Japan’s exclusive economic zone.

“North Korea’s latest action, on top of its repeated firings of ballistic missiles, is a serious threat to the peace and safety of Japan and ... a grave problem for the entire international society,” Suga said.

In the past 10 days, North Korea has said leader Kim Jong Un supervised two rounds of live-fire artillery exercises in its first weapons tests since late November. Kim had entered the new year with a vow to bolster his nuclear deterrent and not to be bound by a major weapons test moratorium amid a deadlock in a U.S.-led diplomacy aimed at convincing Kim to abandon his nuclear program in return for economic and political benefits.

South Korea and some European countries protested against the second North Korea drills on March 2, which they believe involved ballistic missile launches in a violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions.

North Korea insists it has the right to conduct military drills in the face of U.S. and South Korean forces on its doorstep.

The U.N. Security Council didn't issue any statement after discussing North Korea's March 2 drills, but five European members condemned what they called “provocative actions.” Belgium, Estonia, France, Germany and the United Kingdom said afterward that the tests undermine regional and international peace, security and stability.

The North’s Foreign Ministry on Saturday accused the five European countries of “repeating an absurd argument of condemnation and violation resolutions of the U.N. whenever we conducted military drills.”

“The reckless behavior of these countries instigated by the U.S. will become a fuse that will trigger our yet another momentous reaction,” a ministry statement said.

Last week, Kim Jong Un’s younger sister leveled diatribes and crude insults against South Korea for criticizing its earlier live-fire exercises, but her statement was followed by Kim sending a letter to South Korean President Moon Jae-in expressing condolences over its coronavirus outbreak.

Some experts say North Korea may intend to catch South Korea off balance before seeking help in reviving its dilapidated economy, since the U.S. has said sanctions on North Korea will stay in place unless it takes significant steps toward denuclearization.

“The coronavirus is likely exceeding North Korea’s public health capacity, so Kim Jong Un is playing a two-level game. At the domestic level, his regime claims to protect the people with drastic quarantine measures and military exercises against external threats,” said Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor at Seoul's Ewha Womans University. “Pyongyang may be seeking international assistance, but remains obsessed with not appearing in an inferior position to Seoul.”

Nuclear talks between Pyongyang and Washington remain stalled since the breakdown of a second summit between Kim and President Donald Trump in Vietnam in early 2019.

Subsequent talks between the two countries failed to produce much progress amid disputes over how much sanctions relief should be given in return for a limited step to move away from nuclear weapons by North Korea.
_________________

Good thing Donald "Where's My Nobel Prize" Trump solved the North Korea problem with his masterful dealmaking skills.