The Korean Dilemma

[astralis]

He's got to give up something.

as far as i can tell, both SK and China would be content with Kim just stopping the threats to nuke Guam or Washington DC, maybe agree to some weak veneer of an inspection regime. it just takes one of those parties to either relax or turn a blind eye to the sanction regime, and Kim gets most of the money that he needs.

i mean, we all expected this to be symbolic only anyway. i don't think any of the factors have changed in this regard.

[TopHatter]

Joe, you can't have it both ways. Either Trump is too stupid to deal with KJU or Trump would lie to KJU to get what he wants.

Actually both are true. Never seen a small child that lies through their teeth constantly?

KJU and Xi are playing Trump like the small child that he is, AND once they sit down to talk (IF they sit down to talk), anything that Trump promises better be put in writing and ratified by Congress as U.S. law.

Anything less is simply fooling themselves and everybody else.

[Double Edge]

North Korea does not have a nuke that can hit the US.

This is what they say in public : )

I have no proof its just a surmise

Let's say NK can.

Would the US be acting any different than they are right now

[Officer of Engineers]

Actually both are true. Never seen a small child that lies through their teeth constantly?

KJU and Xi are playing Trump like the small child that he is, AND once they sit down to talk (IF they sit down to talk), anything that Trump promises better be put in writing and ratified by Congress as U.S. law.

Anything less is simply fooling themselves and everybody else.

I say Trump outplayed Fat Boy without blinking an eye. Voluntarily or involuntarily, his nuke program is stopped at least for the moment. Fat Boy demanded real world actions to repay his stopping of his nuclear program. Trump offerred a non-agression pact without reducing any forces and even Moon is not keen to reduce the SK military.

Without a Force Reduction, the SKs are poised to take the DMZ and with that, the destruction of 80% of the North Korean Army resulting in the inevitable collapse of KJU.

So, even with a Senate Ratification, Trump had offerred nothing in return.

[Officer of Engineers]

This is what they say in public : )

With their current technology, if they aimed for LA, they might hit the Rockies and about a 20% chance the nuke would go off as intended.

Let's say NK can.

Would the US be acting any different than they are right now

At the very least, the return of nuclear weapons to the Korean theatre.

[Double Edge]

With their current technology, if they aimed for LA, they might hit the Rockies and about a 20% chance the nuke would go off as intended.

So they can reach the US but can't aim as well. This is cold comfort

At the very least, the return of nuclear weapons to the Korean theatre.

Would it make a difference taking #7 into account?

Who would even want them. Not the Japanese. Open question about the Koreans

http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/10/11/...terrible-idea/

3. We don’t have them. There is no ready U.S. stockpile of nuclear weapons that could be redeployed in South Korea. President George H. W. Bush ordered the last U.S. nuclear weapons removed from South Korea in 1992 as part of a global initiative to put tactical nuclear weapons in storage to prevent their theft. The nuclear weapons we used to deploy in South Korea have mostly been dismantled, and the rest are out of service and awaiting destruction. Any weapons the U.S. opted to deploy would have to come from elsewhere, namely from the small arsenal deployed in Europe, thus causing political problems and strategic challenges with European allies. Other options might include returning nuclear weapons from retired to active duty, something we have not done before and that would take time and money.

4. There is no place to put them. No secure storage facilities suitable for tactical nuclear weapons exist in South Korea. Nuclear storage bunkers are not like gym lockers. They are highly advanced and must be able to protect against unguarded access even in the event of a coup or conflict. U.S. bunkers in South Korea have not been used in 25 years. It would take a few years to rebuild and recertify suitable storage.

7. We’ve got better options. There are more effective ways to reassure the South and deter the North. South Korea is understandably concerned about the threat posed by North Korea and the strength of the U.S. defense commitment. European states during the Cold War had similar concerns, never fully resolved. As with European allies, the United States and South Korea could increase the vitality of the alliance by:

— Enhancing missile defense deployments and pursuing integration with other regional forces, including U.S. naval assets in Japan.

— Jointly developing reconnaissance and conventional strike capabilities to hold mobile North Korean missile launchers at risk.

— Increase scope and diversity of military exercises with South Korean troops, focused on denying North Korea coercive benefits from its nuclear weapons and preparing for “gray-zone” scenarios.

— Consider home-porting new U.S. military assets in South Korea, including the USS Zumwalt stealth destroyer, and broadening cooperation on antisubmarine warfare.

— Consider increasing the U.S. deployment of troops in South Korea.

— Upgrading the level and frequency of alliance political coordination, to include a robust public outreach effort in South Korea.

[Officer of Engineers]

So they can reach the US but can't aim as well. This is cold comfort

Nuclear Warfare 102. You need 3 nukes per target because 2 of them might not work. Add to that the ABM shield, suddenly, NK confidence of hitting LA reached near zero.

Who would even want them. Not the Japanese. Open question about the Koreans

This isn't about tac nukes and does not need SK deployments. SSBNs off the coast of NK. The point being that NK's entire nuclear arsenal is vulnerable to a US first strike. If the mainland US is under threat, the US would make it a nuclear first strike.

[tbm3fan]

I personally would trust Trump's words anymore than I could spit 5 feet into a Force 4 hurricane. I still am placing my bet on Trump being more interested the the pomp and ceremony of a meeting that actual policy. He is an TV actor. Where is my spot, what are my lines, and where is the camera that I smile at?

So we have Trump backing away from immediate denuclearization and would be Ok with a gradual phase out. What happens next week?

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/22/w...ea-summit.html

[Officer of Engineers]

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/22/w...ea-summit.html

NYT is reaching. Nowhere could I find that Trump would want anything other than a total denuclearization. KJU was the one who proposed it, not Trump. Now that KJU went back on his promise, Trump came up with protections, ie nothing.

Even from the NYT article, Trump specifically states that he will walk away from the meet. Not committing to it. No cash up front. If KJU is not going to deliver on the meet, then Trump will not show.

[tbm3fan]

and another article just popped up. Seems the North doesn't like Pence. Hot/Cold. Yes/No. I love all the posturing.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/23/polit...ntl/index.html

[astralis]

Even from the NYT article, Trump specifically states that he will walk away from the meet. Not committing to it. No cash up front. If KJU is not going to deliver on the meet, then Trump will not show.

i think the assumption here is that the US holds all the cards and that the meeting must go well for NK for Kim.

i don't think that's the case.

if you look at the meeting as a sell-job from Kim to Moon and the SK populace, then Kim's sudden about-face makes more sense.

it allows for NK to portray Kim as the peace-able one, show that Trump/Bolton queered the deal, and then Kim would be able to justifiably walk away from promises he was never going to uphold in the first place. it splits SK public opinion, and makes the US strategy of maximum pressure on Korea a lot harder to carry out if China and SK are not fully onboard.

[Oracle]

North Korea demolishes nuclear test site with series of blasts

Credible?

[snapper]

Oops.

[astralis]

snapper, wrong thread?

[astralis]

aannnnd there goes the meeting.